The XNTK Tech ETF is in buy territory, as forecast.I expected this EFT to get down to the $70 neighborhood before I'd step up - and it has. Seems to have bounced nicely and is trending upward.
Technologystocks
MSFT, 25.3.2020Hi, traders.
My name is Lukas and I am a beginner in trading, respectively, I only trade 6 months. But that means I have to do the necessary analyzes without it I can't trade. I want to show you how I work on myself and document my beginnings. I use Vix and my strategy is built on to return to average. I highlight the important support levels and resistances that flow from the volume profile, all drawn on graph. These zones determine the ability to respond in some way to the market from 1 to 3, with 1 being the largest.
Short description of analysis:
After yesterday's growth today I expect a slight consolidation, the market will gain energy with the help of the FED, and so will have room to rise until the next resistance. This happens after Microsoft teamed up with the WHO to introduce a hackathon about COVID-19. Of course, my analysis does not serve like market forecasts and I am not responsible for your trades if you use my analysis for your own trades.
AND Chceck my new twitter :)
Tesla Has Pulled Back to Some Key LevelsTesla was one of the biggest movers in late 2019 and early 2020, more than tripling in value on a monster short squeeze. TradeStation highlighted the trend in early December and now it's back on our radar.
TSLA has pulled back to an area where two levels are in play:
First, it probed its 200-day moving average yesterday for the first time since October. ( Click here for the "Distance from MA" script featured on this chart.)
Second, it tested old highs around $385 from 2017 and 2018.
This may create the potential for classic trend following if current levels hold.
There have also been some upgrades this week: Bank of America yesterday and Morgan Stanley today. Both raised it from the equivalent of "sell" to "hold," mostly based on the depth of its recent pullback.
In conclusion, there's still plenty of volatility and uncertainty out there. But TSLA was one of the strongest names before coronavirus hammered the market. Investors hoping to put money to work may want to see if these levels hold in coming sessions.
GOOGL, CAN BE ANY TRADE DONE IN THIS CRAZY TIMES? 10.3.2020Hi, traders.
My name is Lukas and I am a beginner in trading, respectively, I only trade 6 months. But that means I have to do the necessary analyzes without it I can't trade. I want to show you how I work on myself and document my beginnings. I use Vix and my strategy is built on to return to average. I highlight the important support levels and resistances that flow from the volume profile, all drawn on graph. These zones determine the ability to respond in some way to the market from 1 to 3, with 1 being the largest.
Short description of analysis:
As you can see, our zones work beautifully despite being in a time of fear and pessimism. In the short term, any speculation is very risky. Focus on longer periods of 6 months or more. If you want to risk and trade in this highly volatile period, then we can get to 1000 USD in the event of further rinsing. But remember every short position is very risky. Of course, my analysis does not serve like market forecasts and I am not responsible for your trades if you use my analysis for your own trades.
Is Alibaba Immune to Coronavirus? RS Suggests It May BeRelative Strength shows when a stock is outperforming peers. It can be very useful when the market corrects, like we saw last week. Crisis often turns into opportunity once the dust settles.
One of the biggest surprises from RS recently is the strength in Chinese names. Despite coronavirus originating on the Mainland, many of the country's big liquid stocks have corrected less than the broader market.
Alibaba is a case in point. When the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 were crashing down toward their 200-day simple moving averages (SMA) last week, BABA didn't even come close to dropping that much. That's a classic sign of relative strength.
The e-commerce giant broke out of a long basing pattern in late 2019 and quickly surged to new highs. It then consolidated in price, and now is completing an ABC flat pattern, or double bottom. Its swings have also been much tamer than the rest of the market.
Another positive last Friday was the slight undercut of January's support around $199.50. When a stock undercuts support it often takes out obvious stops and shakes out the weak hands. The result is a false breakdown.
Traders looking for an entry in BABA may want to look for a breakout above the 21-day and 50-day SMAs, which are slightly above the current price range.
Uber Is About to Have a Golden CrossRide-sharing company Uber Technologies has had bad times and good times since its IPO last May. First, it had to cut its offer price. Then it fell all the way down to the mid-20s as investors worried about its profitability and sprawling operations.
But one by one, CEO Dara Khosrowshahi has moved to address those issues. He's exited non-core businesses and focused on making money. As a result, UBER was able to move forward its profitability goal the last time it reported earnings on February 6.
The stock gapped higher at the time, but then coronavirus came along and smashed it down to where it began 2020.
Meanwhile, enough time has passed for UBER's 200-day simple moving average (SMA) to appear. And guess what? Its 50-day SMA is about to rise up through the 200-day SMA. A "Golden Cross," could potentially occur in the next 1-2 sessions.
Another pattern on the chart is a tight ascending triangle since last Thursday. UBER's made incrementally higher lows while pushing against resistance at $34. That could be a potential trigger level for traders looking to hail a ride on the stock.
Nvidia Perching on Big Outside CandleNvidia is one the biggest gainers in the S&P 500 over the past year, trailing only Advanced Micro Devices among the semiconductors. Now the coronavirus pullback may be providing an opportunity for momentum buyers.
NVDA's chart has a few interesting patterns.
First, it never closed below its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) amid last week's intense volatility. That places it among only a handful of stocks in the current market that remained above that level.
Second, it's held a rising trend line that began in August.
Third, NVDA formed a bullish engulfing candle on Friday. It's now holding support at the top of that candle.
Finally, stochastics are near oversold conditions. This oscillator has successfully marked turns for NVDA in the past.
The company's last earnings report on February 13 beat estimates across the board. Investors were especially impressed by NVDA's growth in AI/machine-learning chips. Analysts followed with a stream of positive notes, price target hikes and upgrades. The firms include Bernstein, RBC Capital, Evercore ISI, Cowen and Jefferies.
Microsoft at the 50-day SMAYesterday we focused on Alphabet at the 50-day simple moving average. Today, we'll look at Microsoft.
MSFT has risen steadily since breaking out of a high basing pattern in October. Monday's crash brought it back down to a near-term peak around $168 in mid-January. It also tested the 50-day moving average for the first time in four months.
MSFT is obviously a huge member of the indexes, so has some broader correlation risk. However it's different from other tech stocks like Apple and the semiconductors that have major China exposure.
The software giant's fundamentals have also been very strong lately as businesses like Azure keep getting bigger.
Like GOOGL, MSFT is a classic mega-cap growth stock with a dominant position in the market and the U.S. economy. Buying a market-based (not company based) pullback like this is classic trend-following.
Alphabet Back Under $1 Trillion Market CapCoronavirus is hammering stocks today, as everyone knows. The disease most directly threatens chip makers, transports, energy and financials. Some corners of tech are less directly impacted… like Alphabet.
Today's drop represents GOOGL's first pullback to its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) since the company broke out to new highs in November and December. It also comes at a time when Sundar Pichai has taken the helm as CEO, with an eye on monetizing businesses like YouTube.
The current zone around $1,420 is also a support area where it bounced earlier in the month.
In conclusion, Warren Buffett isn't known as a great technical analyst. But his adage of being "greedy when others are fearful" might just apply in a new-economy blue chip like GOOGL.
NASDAQ’s blatantly obvious Dark Cloud CoverHave you seen it?
It’s on the weekly chart, and all we need is the coming week to be down for a bearish reversal confirmation pattern to complete the DARK CLOUD COVER
Technicals not yet supportive of a bearish trend YET, understandably as candlesticks are the first price indicator to give the heads up. Bearing in mind (pun not intended), that the recent rallies to historical highs are led by technology sector / NASDAQ, this is a leader to watch for the imminent danger.
IF projections are correct, this one can move -15% from current levels to about 8000!!!
So Heads Up!
IBM: From Boring to Soaring?International Business Machines has been a boring stock for years, and is still well below its highs from early 2013. But that's been changing in the last month.
First came a strong earnings report on January 21. Profit and revenue both beat estimates, but the real story was strong growth in cloud computing. That suggested IBM is finally moving beyond its legacy mainframe business and into the 21st century.
The story got even bigger on January 30 when cloud chief Arvind Krishna became CEO of the entire company (replacing Ginni Rometty). IBM quickly ripped all the way to a new 52-week high and then paused to digest its gains.
A "Golden Cross" formed as it rested, with the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) rising above the 200-day SMA. IBM also held support near last year's peak around $150.
This gives buyers a potential risk-management zone below the February 18 low.
The other thing to remember is that IBM has much lower multiples than most other big IT and software companies. (A fraction of Microsoft in terms of price/sales or price/earnings.) If it's truly staging a turnaround, analysts and investors could soon talk about the need for higher valuations.
Pinterest Fills the Earnings GapPinterest has been making news this year. First, eMarketer said it surpassed Snap as the third-biggest social-media platform in the U.S. The second headline was a strong earnings report on February 6, featuring beats on the top- and bottom lines.
PINS gapped higher on the results and then pulled back -- as you might expect. But then it kept sliding on the last big news story: Facebook's launch of a competing app.
That was good news for potential buyers because it brought PINS all the way back down to fill the earnings gap.
The next signal came yesterday when PINS formed a bullish outside day/engulfing candle. That potential reversal pattern suggests the short-term bearishness is finished.
We're using an hourly chart here to show how PINS is holding the 100-day simple moving average. This can be a useful indicator for equities when the daily chart lines up. Multi-time frame analysis is in our blood at TradeStation!
SHOP – another off-the-charts MACDShopify has been enjoying a terrific tear, with the MACD entering beyond overbought levels.
But investors don't seem to care, and they continue to buy the dip, even when there's no real dip there to be bought.
Twitter: Jack Dorsey's Second Gap Fill This MonthSquare rallied hard after filling a price gap a few weeks ago. Now Jack Dorsey's other company, Twitter , is doing the same thing.
Strong quarterly results on February 6 sent TWTR ripping on heavy volume. In a nutshell, better user monetization and engagement restored confidence in the social-media platform's business over the long term.
The stock has consolidated its gains as it chops along the 200-day simple moving average (SMA). It also probed the bullish gap but never filled it.
Next, the weekly chart just completed an inside candle: a higher low and lower high. It also closed a few pennies below the previous Friday. That can signal volatility is calming before movement returns.
Traders will now watch for TWTR to hold the 200-day SMA as it pushes against the $38-40 congestion area from October. Above that, the 2018 peak around $47-48 comes into play.
Paychex: Steady Growth Stock Attempts Cup & Handle BreakoutPaychex isn't the most exciting stock on the planet. But it's forming a textbook cup and handle pattern, which may indicate a breakout is coming.
The payroll processing company surged about 40 percent between the end of 2018 and June 2019. It's consolidated those gains since, basing around $80 last August-September (cup), followed by a higher low around $82 in November (handle).
PAYX squeezed into a tighter range since then, finding support above its 200-day and 50-day simple moving averages (SMAs).
Next came its big candlestick from the December 18 earnings report. PAYX tried to gap higher on strong results and higher guidance, but sellers quickly swatted it back down to its range. The stock consolidated for a few more weeks before running to a new high pennies below $90. It then pulled back and held the 50-day SMA on January 31.
After that, it formed a tight channel between $87.25 and $88.90, which it's now on the verge of breaking.
Is Facebook Flying a Bearish Flag?Facebook gapped lower on a poor earnings report two weeks ago. It's staggered there since as the rest of the market rebounded, and now the technicals may be pointing lower.
The first big pattern is a potential bearish flag following the January 30 drop. The direction of movement was lower, so a continuation pattern like a bear flag could point toward another leg down.
Next, the bearish flag has taken shape along the 50-day simple moving average (SMA). The key line tried to give some support but now that could be fading after two weeks of consolidation.
Third, FB's recent move above $220 could be viewed as a false breakout compared to the July 2018 peak. That creates potential for distribution (otherwise known as "selling") if recent buyers near the highs lose confidence.
The news has already been shifting in that direction because FB's performing the opposite of many other big technology firms like Apple , Amazon.com and Microsoft . They're all delivering in key growth areas (services, AWS, Azure). Even companies like International Business Machines and Twitter are showing signs of a turnaround.
FB, on the other hand, is struggling to grow as regulatory pressures increase. A big downgrade from Pivotal Research yesterday also raised questions about ad revenue.
The current setup also has a potential level for risk management, with bears able to use the 50-day SMA as their pain threshold. To the downside, $200 could be the next line to watch.
Advanced Micro Bounces After First Decent PullbackSemiconductors have been one of the stronger corners of the market, and Advanced Micro Devices has been one of the strongest names in the space.
AMD might be extended in price but that's a sign of its leadership. It just pulled back to test its 10-week simple moving average (SMA) for the first time since it started running in October. The stock is also coming out of a bullish inside week, with a higher low, lower high and higher close. It's now on the verge of breaking the top of that range at $50.85.
Guess what else? The recent chopping around $48 represents a consolidation above AMD's old highs from May 2000 at the peak of the dotcom bubble.
Going forward, swing traders will probably stay bullish on AMD as long as the 10-week SMA holds.
Biogen: Sell opportunity.BIIB closed the week around +25% as news regarding a crucial patent ruling came out in the company's favor. With the company's earnings also higher than the forecast, investors seem upbeat with the stock's dynamics. Even though the 1D chart turned overbought (RSI = 75.219, MACD = 6.690), on the weekly chart there is still a clear Resistance Zone at 370.00 - 389.00 which has been holding since 2016.
The fact that the 1W candle pulled back making a big wick right after it entered the Resistance Zone, indicates that traders looked to book profits first. We see this as a strong sell opportunity towards at least the 267.00 Gap or even the 246.70 Symmetrical Support.
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Veeva Systems: Another Software Stock Tries to MoveOne software stock after another has come to life and ripped higher in the last few months. Salesforce.com , Alteryx , ServiceNow , Trade Desk , Adobe : the list goes on.
VEEV is another member of the group that's now trying to make its move. It's formed a broad basing pattern since last autumn. That followed a 100 percent move between early 2018 and mid-2018… which followed a 200 percent move in the two years before that.
VEEV is a "classic growth stock," going from small-cap to mid-cap to large-cap as its business expands. Growth stocks like this have been the cornerstone of the rally for years, and there's little sign of that changing.
VEEV is now trying to get back above its 200-day simple moving average (SMA). It resembles Amazon.com earlier this month and PayPal in December.
VEEV also just bounced at the same $148.50 zone that was previously resistance. Traders might expect a few more sessions of consolidation but also watch for continuation higher -- especially with earnings due in 3-4 weeks.
Speaking of earnings, VEEV has a history of surprising to the upside. Last quarter, it tried to rally before getting smacked lower. But now it's had time to consolidate and turn its 100-day SMA higher. Notice it's given useful signals in the past. (This chart below uses our Colored Moving Averages script to highlight direction of the 100-day SMA. In the dynamic chart above the 100-day SMA is gray.)
Coupa Software: Pullback to Old High and 50-day SMACoupa Software has had a monster run since early last year. Now it could be giving a potential entry.
COUP rallied about 150 percent between January 2019 and last October. It then had a big chopping period like two megaphones. It first got wider and then narrower, followed by a breakout in January.
Now COUP has come back to hold the old high around $160 and its 50-day simple moving average. This highlights a potential opportunity -- with a support zone and moving average in play. (You can thank Tesla for the pullback yesterday because it weighed on the Nasdaq.)
COUP is also a member of the fast-growing enterprise software space. It focuses on procurement systems. Enterprise software has become one of the biggest industries in the current bull market for growth stocks.
The next earnings report is due in a little more than a month.
Amazon: Ready for an expansion phase. Target: 2,800 - 3,200.AMZN marginally broke the formet All Time High (2,050 - 2,055) this week, which was a Resistance level that has been holding for 1.5 years. With the EPS smashing the forecast last month turning 1D extremely bullish (RSI = 72.875, MACD = 46.790 ADX = 23.292) we have turned very bullish on the stock as it is repeating the fractal (2014/2015) that preceded its last expansion phase.
The RSI on the 1W chart is also replicating this sequence on impressive symmetry. We therefore believe that Amazon is at the start of a new expansion phase and initially aim for the +145% extension. Our Target Zone is 2,800 - 3,200.
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Micron: First Healthy Pullback Since Breaking OutChip stocks have been the strongest corner of the market for the last year. Now one of the most actively traded names in that group has had its first healthy pullback since breaking out to new 52-week highs: Micron Technology .
MU has been working its way through an 18-month consolidation pattern following a huge run between mid-2016 and mid-2018.
It broke out to a new 52-week high in mid-December as the market flew into new territory but remained below the previous peaks from 2018. The risk/reward wasn't great, even as MU kept chopping higher, but now it's pulled back to some key levels and may offer a cleaner opportunity.
Two important things stand out on MU's chart: The 50-day simple moving average (SMA) and the recent low around $52.50. Both provide a good risk-management zones for buyers seeking a move back toward $60.
Fundamentally, most indications have remained positive for semiconductors . MU CEO Sanjay Mehrotra called a bottom for memory chips in December, and Intel's (INTC) surprisingly bullish report on January 23 showed orders are still strong. There's also the forward catalyst of 5G networking.
EBay: Channel Breakdown UnderwayE-commerce stock eBay reported earnings last week. The backward-looking results were ok, but forward guidance wasn't so hot. The resulting drop is creating some bearish chart patterns.
First, EBAY formed a tight channel between $34.50 and $36.60 since October. It's now breaking the bottom of that channel.
Second, the channel began on October 24, when EBAY gapped lower on weak guidance. Its recent drop on January 29 wasn't technically a gap (because there was some price overlap with the previous session). However, you have a gap down, consolidation and further downward pressure. The direction and high-volume price moves have been negative.
Third, EBAY has formed something of a head and shoulders since last March and April. That pattern follows a failed breakout attempt in early 2018. Nothing bullish in that.
Finally, EBAY has gone almost two years without making a new 52-week high, unlike the broader S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 indexes. A steady lack of relative strength like that is also a sign of underlying weakness.
A year ago, EBAY had a bullish gap between $31.02 and $32.73. It may now come into play as a downside target. Given the market's recent fears, traders looking to get bearish may want to start with weaker names already under pressure. EBAY could fit that bill.
