MICROSOFT How to trade as the Earnings approach?Microsoft (MSFT) is set to report the Earnings on Tuesday and last time we gave gave a pull-back buy signal (December 01 2023, see chart below) we caught the exact bottom:
Our original long-term Target was $460.00 but we have to downgrade it to $440.00. On the short-term it may be wise to take most or at least some of the profit if the 1D MA20 (red trend-line) as this has been a medium-term sell signal on July 26 2023. It's not just potentially lower than expected Earnings that may turn the trend bearish on the medium-term but also the Fed, which announce the Rate Decision on Wednesday.
As a result, if the price breaks below the 1D MA20, we will short and target the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) at $370.00 where we will add another long-term buy position. Notice that the 1D CCI indicator and the correlation with the 2023 price action, shows that both scenarios are equally likely at the moment.
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Technologystocks
MSFT: Hidden Bullish Divergence, Upside Potential+7%? Hi Realistic Traders, let's delve into the technical analysis of NASDAQ:MSFT
Microsoft's current price action analysis (MSFT) reveals several significant indicators suggesting a favorable bullish trend. Firstly, the stock consistently trades above the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) 34 line, signaling a robust bullish trend. Additionally, a recent development in a symmetrical triangle formation has been observed, followed by a decisive breakout from this pattern.
Moreover, the momentum indicator has exhibited a hidden bullish divergence, reinforcing the positive outlook. This confluence of technical signals indicates a strong likelihood of Microsoft continuing its upward trajectory. In our analysis, we anticipate a potential pullback to the previous resistance zone before resuming its bullish trend, with the initial target in sight. Further, we identify a second target for potential gains, underlining the prospect of sustained positive momentum in MSFT's market performance.
It is essential to note that the analysis will no longer hold validity once the target/support area is reached.
Disclaimer:
"Please note that this analysis is solely for educational purposes and should not be considered a recommendation to take a long or short position on Microsoft."
Please support the channel by engaging with the content, using the rocket button, and sharing your opinions in the comments below!
Can UBER breakthrough its all time high?UBER on the weekly chart has been touching the all time high
( set nearly two years ago ) since mid-December. The relative buying volume has had some
spikes. the MACD suggests a line cross above the histogram and so some bearish tendencies.
If UBER can get over its all-time high and retest it from above another leg higher seems to be a
very likely scenario as buyers jump into the action chasing the price. This will be especially true
if the general market gets some good trending up. This goes on the watch list with an alert for
a new all-time high.
NETFLIX Will the stream giant correct after the Earnings?Netflix (NFLX) is reporting Earnings today and what we see from the past 4 weeks that has been unable to make new Highs, it might be pricing a peak. That peak might be a technical Higher High formation on the 1.5 year Channel Up, which is the Earnings disappoint, can initiate a medium-term correction towards the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) and 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) Support Zone.
The technical confirmation for a sell will most likely be a 1W candle closing below the 1D MA50 (red trend-line), which has been the standard support of uptrends within the Channel Up. In addition to that, we will be expecting to see the 1W MACD form a Bearish Cross. On that signal, we will target 425.00.
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CISCO Strong Bullish Break-outCisco Systems (CSCO) is sustainably breaking above the Lower Highs trend-line that started on the September 01 2023 High, which was a Higher High on the 1.5 year Channel Up pattern. This break-out has turned the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) into a Support and the only barrier that remains before a new bullish wave is the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line).
If broken (1D candle closing above it), we will target Resistance 1 at 53.50. Notice how based on the 1D MACD symmetry we are on the exact same consolidation levels (blue ellipse) before which a strong rally followed.
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Microsoft - Triangle BreakoutHello Traders, welcome to today's analysis of Microsoft.
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Explanation of my video analysis:
All the way back in 2014 Microsoft stock perfectly broke above a major resistance area at the $35 level and entered a +1.000% bullmarket. Over the past three years Microsoft has been trading within an ascending triangle and recently broke out towards the upside. If we see a retest of the breakout level mentioned in the analysis, I am looking for bullish trading setups.
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I will only take a trade if all the rules of my strategy are satisfied.
Let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions.
Keep your long term vision.
TESLA Breaking below the 1W MA50 again but NOT a BUY yet.Three weeks ago we mentioned the importance of the All Time High (ATH) Lower Highs trend-line on Tesla (TSLA) and how critical it would be for the price to finally break above it for the first time in more than 2 years:
The 'Do or die moment' as we called it failed to deliver and the price got emphatically rejected on the Lower Highs for the 5th time. This rejection has brought the price below the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) yet again on pre-market. The natural zone of Support now is the January 06 2023 Higher Lows trend-line (Cycle bottom) and the April 27 2023 Higher Lows (dashed) trend-line. As long as it holds, we expect a short-term bounce and another test of the ATH Lower Highs trend-line.
If the stock breaks above the ATH Lower Highs, we will buy for a long-term rally and target 345.00. If the price breaks below the (dashed) April 27 2023 Higher Lows, we can expect a bottom as low as even 180.00, which is the Lower Lows (bottom) trend-line) of the Channel Down that started on the July 19 2023 High. If the 1D RSI though breaks first the 30.00 oversold barrier, we will take the profit on shorts and turn into a long-term buy (Target at $345.00 again) as every time the RSI turned oversold at 30.00, since December 2022, it was the most efficient buy opportunity we could get.
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AMD Correction expected on this Double Top.Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) has given excellent pull-back buy opportunities since our last analysis (December 12 2023, see chart below):
We believe though that it is time to take profit on those buy positions as the short-term Channel Up has made a Double Top similar to the June 13 2023 pattern, which started a prolonged correction. Even though the new correction doesn't have to be that long, even a shorter one is plausible as the same 1D RSI Bearish Divergence (on Lower Highs) that we currently have, was seen on all corrections within the 18-month Channel Up, with the shortest of them being -15%.
Assuming this worst case scenario, we turn now bearish and target 129.00 (-15% from the Top). Then as long as the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) holds, or even if broken when it gets reclaimed, we will buy again for the long-term.
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SHOPIFY More downside to come. Where to buy?Shopify (SHOP) has been trading within a Channel Up pattern since the October 13 2022 market bottom. It recently made a Higher High but not at the top of the pattern and started to pull-back, losing most of its strength and momentum as the 1D RSI dropped to 45.50 (neutral). The price is still above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which keeps it bullish but in our opinion it won't be for long as it has started to resemble the pull-back after the December 02 2022 High.
That was on the Channel Up first bullish leg and it eventually pulled-back to the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, before the price rebounded again and almost reached the -0.382 Fib extension for a technical Higher High. Observe how similar the 1D RSI sequences are between the two.
As a result, we expect currently a downside as low as 60.50 (Fib 0.5) at least to test the 1D MA200 and then we will buy and target $94.00 (below the -0.382 Fib, projected +56% rise, which is 20% lower than the previous rise (+76.18%), similar to the difference the Feb 03 2023 High High had from its Dec 02 2022 High).
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Nasdaq - First Quarter Might Be Red➡️Hello Traders, welcome to today's analysis of Nasdaq.
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➡️I will only take a trade if all of the rules of my strategy are satisfied.
➡️Consider hitting that like button for more free, daily analysis. Your support means a lot!
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➡️Let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions.
➡️Keep your long term vision.
QQQ rejected off top of 2009-2023 channelBlue channel represents the primary trading channel since the 2009 crash. Only during the Covid bubble was QQQ able to escape that channel (ended up doubling it). Price can still work its way up along this resistance line, such as 2014 and 2018, but both of those times the stock market averaged out to be pretty flat over about a year time frame.
Here it is on the 1W
TESLA Do or Die moment to break the 2021 Resistance.Tesla (TSLA) is extending the rally following the buy signal (see chart below) we gave on November 07 at the bottom of the 1 year Channel Up:
The price has had 6 green candles out of a total of 7 and looks to repeat the Bullish Legs of April - July and January - February. What's more important than that, is that Tesla is approaching its 'Do or Die' moment as for the 5th time in 2 years (since November 2021), it is about to test the Lower Highs trend-line of the All Time High (ATH).
This huge Resistance level has rejected the price 4 times already, always initiating strong sell-offs. The 1W RSI has already broken above its own Lower Highs trend-line of July, so this could be an early signal of strength accumulation.
If we get a 1W candle close above the Lower Highs, we expect the final phase of the Bullish Leg to materialize and that would have practically confirmed that Tesla finally officially entered into a new Cycle of long-term growth. The target remains $345.00, representing a +75% rise from the recent Channel Low (-20% from the previous Leg).
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Bearish Channel Breakout, Setting Stage for a Return Above $300?Hi Realistic Traders. Here's my price action analysis on NASDAQ:TSLA !
On May 23, 2023, Tesla (TSLA) exhibited a breakout from the bearish trendline, sustaining its upward trajectory with consecutive higher highs and lows. Following this, TSLA's bullish momentum moderated, leading to the formation of a bearish channel. Notably, there has been a recent breakthrough above the upper trendline of this bearish channel, signaling a robust bullish indication. Adding to the bullish narrative, the momentum indicator (MACD) has executed a golden cross, further affirming the potential for continued upside movement toward the specified target area.
it is essential to note that the analysis will no longer hold validity once the target/support area is reached.
Disclaimer:
"Please note that this analysis is solely for educational purposes and should not be considered a recommendation to take a long or short position on TSLA."
Please support the channel by engaging with the content, using the rocket button, and sharing your opinions in the comments below!
NVDIA Supported by the 1D MA50, targeting $620.NVDIA Corporation (NVDA) closed all 1D candles above the Support, as presented on our October 22 idea, and easily rebounded aggressively to our $476.50 target (see chart below):
This time the rebound is very stable on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) with the log Channel Up since October 2022 showing incredible upside potential. Best to wait for the Rectangle's top to break first though, as a similar pattern in late 2022 gave a rally to the 1.786 Fibonacci extension when it broke upwards. As a result when it does again, our target will be $620 (1.786 Fib ext).
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TESLA Major bullish break-out above July's Lower Highs.Tesla (TSLA) broke today for the first time and even closed the 1D candle above the Lower Highs that started on the July 19 High. After 4 months of the bearish trend of this Falling Wedge pattern, today's move is a major bullish break-out for the long term as it opens the way for testing the All Time High (ATH) by mid 2024.
At the same time, the 1D CCI broke above its Lower Highs trend-line, which is always a bullish signal. Also this is the 2nd time that the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level is tested, which is where both of the previous Lower Highs rejections took place.
On the short-term though we can follow the (dotted) Channel Up extension which after holding the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) - 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) as the Support zone, can technically peak on a +19.80% rise, like the first bullish leg. That falls within the Resistance 1 - Resistance 2 zone. We will pursue the more modest target of 268.85 (Resistance 1). If the price then breaks above Resistance 2 (279.00), we will re-buy and target 299.50 (Resistance 3).
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AMD laying path to the All Time High.Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) hit our 133.15 target that we called for a month ago (see chart below):
The price is now extending the rise within the multi-month Channel Up, approaching the 0.618 Fibonacci Channel level. This is where the March 23 High was made with the rejection that followed, approaching the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). As long as the short-term Channel Up (as you see it is a very common pattern within the wider structure) holds, we will be bullish, targeting 160.00 (Fibonacci 0.786 and close to the All Time High). If the short-term Channel Up breaks, we will sell and target the 0.236 Fibonacci and 1D MA200 at 110.00 (or if contact is made higher, then close on that price).
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APPLE Technical top at $210.Apple (AAPL) hit on Friday our $195.00 short-term target which we called on our latest November 12 analysis (see chart below):
The rally seems far from over as the recent pull-back turned out to be only a Bull Flag pattern, which typically prompts to a continuation of the trend. Being within a long-term Rising Wedge pattern, this pull-back resembles, even on 1D RSI terms, that of March 02, only on weaker strength (reasonably as the sequences get narrower towards the end of the pattern).
That first rally of the Wedged peaked just above the 1.382 Fibonacci extension. The current sequence's 1.382 Fib is at $210.00, which falls perfectly at the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the Rising Wedge, and that is our medium-term target.
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META Is it a BUY again?Meta Platforms (META) hit our $320.00 target after our most recent November 19 call (see char below) following a clear rejection on the Higher Highs trend-line:
The stock has since held the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) as its short-term Support and turned into a buy again. The short-term target is still limited to the Higher Highs trendline and in that sphere of logic, we will target $350 (Target 1).
If however Support 1 (313.50) breaks, we might see another almost -16% decline, similar to the previous two bearish legs since July 28, which can test the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). That will be the strongest buy opportunity on the medium-term and we will target again the Higher Highs trend-line at $360 (Target 2).
Any candle closing above the Higher Highs trend-line will be an automatic bullish break-out signal, targeting straight the All Time High at $384.50.
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SNAP The best short on the market.Snap Inc (SNAP) has been on an incredible rise since practically October 26, which was straight after the bottom on the Higher Lows trend-line of the 1-year Bullish Megaphone pattern. Technically that is the pattern's 4th bullish leg towards its top (Higher Highs trend-line). The price is very close to that level, which is also where the 1W MA100 (red trend-line) is waiting.
That is a trend-line that has been untouched for almost two years (January 04 2022). Obviously it is a major Resistance and coupled with the fact that the 1D RSI, besides touching its Higher Highs trend-line, is on the highest overbought level in three years (Oct 23 2020), makes a case for one of the strongest sell stock picks in the market.
All of the Megaphone's Higher Highs rejections have pulled-back to at least the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level before a bounce. As a result, as long as we close the 1W candles below the 1W MA100, we are shorting Snap, targeting 12.00 (slightly above the 0.5 Fib).
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SPOTIFY Buy opportunity on the 4H MA50.Spotify (SPOT) opened considerably higher yesterday but almost closed the 1D candle flat as it couldn't diverge more from the general bearish market sentiment. Clearly this opening jump indicates the stock bias to continue the bullish leg of the Channel Up that started on October 23, but a small pull-back along the majority of the market is probable, which can serve as a more comfortable buy entry for a rally to the end of the year.
Based on the 1D CCI, we may be in a similar situation as February's temporary top, which pulled back and only found support on the 4H MA50 (red trend-line). As a result we are looking for a new buy on the 4H MA50 in order to target the 0.786 Fibonacci level at 208.00.
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MICROSOFT The 1D MA50 will be the buy opportunity for Xmas.Microsoft (MSFT) is trading inside a Double Channel Up pattern, with the longer term one (blue) starting on the January 06 bottom while the shorter term one (dotted) starting on the September 14 High. The latter Channel Up can be seen with the same structure earlier within the long-term Channel Up as well. It started after the stock pulled back and hit the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which provided a strong rebound.
The same kind of 1D MA50 test took place on October 26, which initiated the current bullish leg (November). As the 1D RSI is posting a Bearish Divergence (Channel Down) simiarl to March 17 - April 12 and the 1D MACD completing a Bearish Cross, we expect one final pull-back towards the 1D MA50. That can be the ideal buy entry for the end-of-the-year rally. Our long-term target is always $460, representing a +43.50% rise from the 1D MA50 bounce (similar to March 13).
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TESLA Moment of truth for long-term buying. Will it fail?It was almost a month ago (November 03) when we called for the start of a rally on Tesla (TSLA) as part of the bullish leg towards the top of the Falling Wedge pattern (see chart below):
Today the stock hit our $250 target and immediately got rejected at the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Wedge. That was on the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level of the previous Lower High, the exact symmetrical level where the September 15 High was rejected.
This is a critical moment for the trend as failure to break and close a 1D candle above the Lower Highs trend-line, will maintain the bearish structure of the Falling Wedge, forcing us to sell again and target the 0.618 Fib level at $217.15. If however we close that 1D candle above, the Falling Wedge gets invalidated and with that the bearish trend, which transitions into a Channel Up (dotted lines) on the medium-term. In that case we will dump the short (low risk with the SL on the Lower Highs) and resume buying, targeting Resistance 1 at $268.85.
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NETFLIX Expect this rally to be extended.Almost a month ago (October 31) we gave a strong buy signal (chart below) on Netflix (NFLX) with the price reacting immediately having entered a non-stop rise:
Due to the sheer aggression of the current bullish leg of the Megaphone as compared to its previous ones though, we have to downgrade our medium-term target to $580, which will make a perfect +69.30% rise from the bottom as the July 18 High. Their RSI patterns are quite similar, though obvious that the current is more aggressive, hence will correct equally aggressively at some point, probably early-mid January 2024.
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