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AMD is a strong short-term BuyAdvanced Micro Devices (AMD) has been practically consolidating since the October 13 Low. As the long-term trend has been bearish within a Channel Down pattern since the November 30 2021 Market High, the current consolidation following the rebound on the (dashed) Lower Low (diverging) trend-line can be seen as an Accumulation Phase preparing for the next bullish leg to the top of the Channel. As you see all previous legs within the Channel Down have been following a certain pattern. After a (near) 30.00 1D RSI reading, and a MACD Bullish Cross, the price rebounds to at least the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. That is currently at 85.68 buy is outside the Channel Down, so we will settle for a Target within 73.50 - 77.50. Only a break above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) can be considered a long-term trend change to bullish. See how the 1D MACD prints Higher Highs and each break above the Pivot is larger. More or less this is consistent with the price breaks above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NASDAQ:AMD
by TradingShot
2
Nasdaq Weekly Volatility Forecast 26-30 September Nasdaq Weekly Volatility Forecast 26-30 September Currently our volatility for Nasdaq is at 4.55%, increasing from 4.03% last week, located on 80th percentile, placing us in a high volatility environment Based on the previous calculations, there is currently a 15.3% chance that the asset is going to break the channel(the weekly candle it will close above/below) TOP 11820 BOT 10905 At the same time, based on the previous calculations: - There is a 35% chance that the previous high from last week of 12140 is going to be touched - There is a 65%chance that the previous low from last week 11215 is going to be touched We can deduct that we have a much higher probability to have a continuation of bearish candle than bullish. On average the weekly candle when the asset was located around this percentile are 3.13% for bull candles and 366% for the bear candles from the opening price. From the fundamental point of view, news that can affect this asset price this week: - Core Durable release, CB Consumer confidence and Powell Speech for Tuesday 27 Sep - Powell Speech for Wednesday 28 Sep - US GDP and Jobless Claims coming on Thursday 29 Sep - Core PCE on Friday 29 Sep Overall I believe for this week there is higher chance due to the overall global activity to have another bearish weekly candle.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by exlux
FTNT Rolling LowerFortinet is a big player in cybersecurity with strong revenue growth and rapidly growing demand for its services. In the very Long-term, Fortinet should do well. However, FTNT's technicals are signaling weakness on a more medium-term basis. The last year of FTNT price action has led to a rounded top formation. One could also argue that Fortinet shows signs of a head and shoulders pattern during the aforementioned period. Fortinet as of the past 7 months is now trading in a downward channel. The recent low recorded last week of 47.5 helps to confirm the continuation of bearishness in future trading. MACD on monthly/weekly/daily all are signaling further pain. The Weekly MACD is especially bearish, currently residing at its most negative level in FTNT's history. Global market conditions are poor, and seemingly getting worse. Unfortunately, history has taught us that during periods of slowed economic activity amid monetary tightening great companies often sell off alongside their less successful peers (although not to the same degree). To conclude: FTNT is experiencing a troubling technical outlook combined with a slowing economy/beaten-down consumer, I do not believe FTNT will be able to stay at such a high valuation with a p/e of 60, despite continued high demand. In the near term, I am looking for a move to 44.3 where the 50% fib retracement level sits. Looking further out, I expect a move down to the 30.2-27.1 range which has been an area of previous strong support as well as a 78.6% fib level. From there a rebound or consolidation period for Fortinet is likely. As always this is not financial advice. Good luck!
NASDAQ:FTNTShort
by Gooby_Trades
AMAZON formed a 1D MA50/100 Bullish Cross. Accumulation ahead.It's been only 1.5 month since our long-term buy call on Amazon (AMZN): The price rose aggressively after weeks of accumulation within the 1W MA200/300 and as we projected broke out hitting almost the first important long-term Resistance (1W MA50). On August 16 the price was rejected exactly on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which was the point of rejection on the previous Lower High (March 29) of this 2022 correction phase. The stock rose almost +45% from its June 14 Low, so profit taking was expected. The 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level broke and the price is just above both the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 1D MA100 (green trend-line). The former crossed today above the latter forming a technical Bullish Cross, the first such formation since December 03 2021. That was a far from ideal pattern as it broke the uptrend's Higher Lows trend-line and basically was at the start of the 2022 correction phase. This time the Higher Lows trend-line is much lower (currently around $114.40) so on the medium-term we remain on a downtrend, until the 1W MA50 and Lower Highs Zone break. However, it is the first time we have such a strong and long uptrend on the 1W RSI, with its Higher Lows trend-line still intact. Practically, as long as the 1D MA50/100 hold, we can expect a re-test of the 1D MA200. If they break, there is still a chance of finding Support on the 0.618 Fib. Further selling can be done below the Higher Lows trend-line. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NASDAQ:AMZNLong
by TradingShot
1
NASDAQ retracement ONThe NASDAQ over-extended its upside target and the later part of last week stalled and started to retrace. Nothing exciting here as it was expected for weeks. lol So the NASDAQ Futures Weekly chart how a (breakout) failure of the 55EMA, and somewhat of a bearish reversal top candlestick pattern in the likes of a Dark Cloud Cover of sorts, or two-thirds of a Three Inside Down. Both suggest that the upcoming week would more likely be a down week. Notably, this past week completes the patterns symmetry of the NASDAQ fall magnitudes, as mentioned in previous earlier post. The Daily chart shows the completed trend reversal pattern (wave 1-5) of a series of higher lows and higher highs. And now, a retracement is in order, in a somewhat expected fashion. MACD and RPM both clearly indicate the retracement. This drawback should be looking for the 13K (or rather 12,900) support. A weaker market is more likely to bring it down to 12,000 or lower instead... perhaps later in September. I am in two minds at this point and here is why... The Daily chart appears to have turned around the trend into a bullish recovery. BUT, the weekly chart is in need of a higher low, which may have a 2000 point range at least. The two things that bugs me bad is the failure of the weekly 55EMA, and the distance from breaking above 14,400 for a weekly bullish clearance. Overall, the weekly chart is not ready (yet) to launch the next bull trend despite having pretty decent technical indicators. Stay safe and well... be cautious as volatility will spike!
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Auguraltrader
3
NASDAQ near upside targetThe NASDAQ just about reached the weekly 55EMA and retraced slightly . It cleared the 13K resistance and 13.2K resistance as well. Still bullish in the weekly technical indicators. The daily chart breaks down the week, with a early week pull back and some volatility and a weak retest of the gap; and then the mid-week bullish spike to break 13K. These were expected last weekend in the previous post. Similarly, the technical indicators were waning in acceleration and this is observed again in the last week. What makes it a little uncomfortable is the Friday candle... one that is suggesting indecision. So, I would start being cautious really. Reading two things now: a pop up spike to about 13,500, and then some retracement should set in.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by Auguraltrader
NASDAQ Bullish firm; to test 13KAs heads up weeks ago, now it is clear that the consequent market action is bullish. The weekly chart clearly showed the consolidation in June, and the robust breakout in July, with a strong bullish looking candle (nice lower tail and close very near at the top) to end the week. Technical indicators are aligned with momentum. 13K resistance should be tested, and appears likely to break. The daily chart has a lot more detail, and takeaways too... Last weekend, it was expected that " an early to mid week retracement, and then a possible uptick. " Not only was it perfect, the uptick was exceeded! Firstly, the mid-week move was a bit of an unusual response to the FOMC raising rates by 75bp. Then the momentum followed through, and the week ended with a significant gap up - Gap & run style, stopping just at the 13K resistance. Thursday's move completed the trend reversal pattern of a series of Higher High (HH) and Higher Lows (HL) denoted by the yellow lines through point 1 to point 5. Upon breaking above the high at point 3, that was pretty much the completion of the trend reversal. Now, clearly bullish and all, we do not go in all guns blazing, and here is why: There is a clear and immediate 13K resistance, and the weekend brings a possibility of a Monday retest of the gap. Although expected that the retracements should be shallow, the daily RPM is indicating a very much reduced rate of acceleration. Small signs like these are like cracks in the wall. Oh, btw... Have you seen the Monthly chart? It is so beautifully crafted with a huge Marubozu type candle engulfing a significantly large bearish June candle. This suggests three things: 1. Next couple of (2, maybe if we lucky 3) months are likely to be bullish; 2. The bear trend is broken; and 3. More importantly, the range of the (last 2) monthly candles suggest a significant range of volatility ahead And so, towards the upside target we go!
CME_MINI:NQ1!Long
by Auguraltrader
8
NASDAQ Ka-Boing!Ok, so we got the NASDAQ bounce for the week as outlined in the previous post. How now, brown cow? The weekly chart now has bullish crossovers in the technical indicators, and clearly a breakout of the consolidation range between 11,200 to 12,200. Mildly and cautiously bullish for the weekly chart, The daily chart shows that the week ended lower after clocking an intraday high that is also the week's high. The candlestick is actually bearish, and the daily technicals appear a bit winded. This collectively may result in an early to mid week retracement, and then a possible uptick. Note that the FOMC meeting is on 26-27 July, so aligned that the early week would be jittery and later in the week sees a stronger move. Either way, be like water, my friends...
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by Auguraltrader
Blackberry RebornBlackberry has very nice upside potential but considering the timing of the historical swings, waiting 5-6 years for a 30X move is not something I'm personally interested in. The Digital Surf Community has outlined numerous other stocks/cryptos with high trajectory that are likely due for completion at a much earlier timeframe. Blackberry is a bit of nostalgic company for me however and I am very much rooting for their future success. I bought a Blackberry Sidekick with my first military check, well over a decade ago. Its a bit refreshing to see how they've rebranded themselves and made a transition from cellular services to now working in the Cybersecurity spectrum (which is now a professional field for me as well). I am not entirely sure what news is to come for BB but over the next few years but it shall be the beneficial/good kind. If you have 4-6 years to wait on such a 30X move, now is the best time to enter your positions. Personally, I don't have that much patience and honestly, the anticipated 30X move pales in comparison to some of the other items we're currently monitoring at Digital Surf Trading Community. If you're a Blackberry fanatic, die hard investor, this is for you. Share, comment and like this post if you find it helpful at all. Surf well and don't drown.
NYSE:BBLong
by DigitalSurfTrading
Alibaba set to break long down trendFor various reasons, the Chinese tech giant Alibaba has been in a downtrend since October 2020. The company has had many headwinds, most of them related to the regulatory environment in China. Most of those issues now seem to be resolving, and I think BABA will be one of the better performers in the coming year. The China Credit Impulse A major leading indicator for China stocks is Bloomberg's "China Credit Impulse" index. As the following chart from MacroMicro shows, the credit impulse's last peak more or less coincided with the last peak in Alibaba in October 2020: As you can also see from the chart, the credit impulse now seems to have bottomed and is improving, a bullish sign for China stocks and for Alibaba in particular. Whereas the US and most other developed nations have been raising interest rates, China is actually in a rate-cutting cycle. Key policy rates in China have only been cut by about 15 basis points, so I don't want to make it sound like they're cutting rates drastically, but they're certainly not raising them, and there's no sign yet that they intend to do so. That makes China potentially a safe haven from rising rates in the US and other developed markets. countryeconomy.com US Delisting Risk For the last couple years, the US has been making noise about delisting China ADRs (the depository shares that China companies use to trade on US exchanges. The SEC has been demanding that Chinese companies comply with US accounting regulations, and the Chinese government has been making it impossible for these companies to do so. At the same time, China enacted a crackdown on big tech companies. The crackdown included steep penalties imposed on Alibaba, including a $2.8 billion fine for monopolistic behavior. The Chinese government also disappeared Alibaba's founder, Jack Ma, for three months. This is "the big one" for Alibaba, but the problem recently seems to be headed toward a resolution. Jack Ma eventually reappeared in Hong Kong and has dutifully been doing as he's told, including restructuring Ant Group and selling off media companies to address the Chinese government's monopoly concerns. Last week, the Chinese government signaled through state media that the tech crackdown should be over soon, and that the Chinese regulatory commission will support companies in complying with US accounting requirements so that ADRs can remain listed in the US: www.cnbc.com While this isn't yet a done deal, it looks really promising and could lead to a large rally in China stocks if and when it gets across the finish line. Zero Tolerance Covid Policy China has had a policy of zero tolerance for Covid, which means the whole country goes into lockdown every time a Covid outbreak happens. This one is not as big a deal for Alibaba, because it's an ecommerce company and thus potentially a beneficiary from people staying home. But I suspect that if China ended this zero tolerance policy, the entire China stock market would rally, including Alibaba. There have, indeed, been rumors that China may end the policy, as reported by the LA Times: www.latimes.com China has a pretty high vaccination rate overall, but they've used the somewhat less effective Sinovac vaccine, and the elderly population surprisingly has been less willing to get vaccinated than younger people, so death rates in the current outbreak have been pretty high. This may make it difficult to end the zero tolerance policy, but they have to end it sometime, so we'll see. Alibaba Valuation and Buybacks Alibaba's got something like an 8% free cash flow yield, which makes it a pretty incredible value for a big tech stock. EV/EBITDA is about 10x, which is mid-range for China's consumer discretionary sector and way below US tech firms of comparable size. The valuation makes BABA hard to resist. They could flush half their capital down the toilet and still be a better value than a lot of US tech. And the signs are that they plan to deploy their capital well rather than poorly. Yesterday Alibaba announced that it will increase its buyback program from $15 billion to $25 billion, which means it will opportunistically take advantage of low share prices to efficiently return capital to shareholders. That's called good capital allocation, and it's one of the things I look for in an investment. It's a really good sign for Alibaba here. Technicals As you can see from the chart, Alibaba has been in a long downtrend. It looks ready to attempt a breakout from that downtrend, however. I'm adding on any pullback to the 112-116 range and looking for a test of that downtrend line probably within a couple weeks.
NYSE:BABALong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
31
NASDAQ hit interim downside target, now what?As previously projected, the NASDAQ pushed further down in the last week, and with expected momentum, to hit the target in good time. The daily chart shows the weekly action much clearer as the immediate resistance at 11725 failed and a quick drop ensued. The week did not follow through to end in downward momentum but instead clocked a small bullish harami. While unclear now, a technical bounce might be in the cards in the following week, and should show if it is happening by about mid-week.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by Auguraltrader
2
TXN to join quick tech rally?My models say the Fed cannot raise rates beyond 0.5 points tomorrow or they cannot be trusted in the future. We should see a quick rally to end this week and perhaps begin next week, before the reality of $6+ fuel prices set in again and we continue the bear market. Based on historical movement, the trough could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending top should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated BUY on June 10, 2022 with a closing price of 159.445. If this instance is successful, that means the stock should rise to at least 160.195 which is the bottom of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock rise 2.0335% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the bottom of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock rise 3.732% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock rise 5.295% from the signal closing price which is the top of the smaller green box. The maximum rise on record would see a move to the top of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well. The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The peak of the rise can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max rise occurs within the limit of study at 50 trading bars after the signal. A 0.4% rise must occur over the next 50 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 17.0 trading bars; half occur within 31.5 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 45.0 trading bars. The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement. As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
NASDAQ:TXN
by StockSignaler
Riot Blockchain: Weekly RSI illustrating attractive Risk-Reward?Riot Blockchain has been punished harshly over the last few months. Its common knowledge that Riot is closely correlated to both Tech Equities and Bitcoin. It is also effected by Crypto mining sentiment and macro factors. With this in mind I believe that this stock is greatly undervalued. I believed it was undervalued at $11-12 but macro-economic factors have distorted this: Central Bank Raising rates; Ukraine-Russian War related Supply Chain Problems; Inflation caused by Supply chain disruptions: War profiteering from Oil companies keeping supply lower than needed. Between the ranges of $3.60-$4.80 is the ideal accumulation zone. Many holders have a cost base higher, including myself. Due to rapid growth in the companies mining capacity, which is accelerating into the start of 2023. The company is significantly undervalued from a fundamentals stand point. The Daily RSI attractiveness is in a similar setup, to the multiple sub 30 RSI tests in 2018. A time period that was also a Bear Market. 1) Be greedy when others are fearful. 2) If you believe in a Companies business and promising future outlook. Don't let a bear market discount be the reason NOT the DCA. Even as the stock has been trashed recently, the fundamentals have not changed. 3) The fundamentals are the strongest in the mining business. With huge mining capacity coming online over 2022 & 2023. >>> Eyes on the Medium to Long Term<<< Just one swing traders opinion, not financial advice.
NASDAQ:RIOTLong
by FortunaAlgoAnalytics