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NASDAQ breaks down hard... and there is momentum indicating that there is more downside, extending beyond the last low. Weekly chart ended the week with a marubozu type candlestick where the close is at or near the low, suggesting downward momentum is strong. This is seen in the daily chart where the breakdown occured on Thursday and strongly pushed down to then Friday very near the low. The increasing candlestick length suggests similarly as well. While the weekly technical indicators are not as bearish yet, the daily technicals are indicating a down week to follow, extending beyond the last recent low, perhaps for a day or two. 11,000-11,200 becomes a critical support level for the next week. Let's see how early next week turns out... whether there is more downside (as Monday reveals down) or a spike down and stall. Currently expecting the former, with space up to a further 10% downside. Stay safe!
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Auguraltrader
NASDAQ is not yet done with downward momentumThe dead cat bounce only lasted a couple of days, and it gave way soon and very quickly yesterday (pre-market). This breakdown was with decent downside momentum, and was also off the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, as observed in the 4H intraday chart above. By projecting forward using simple geometric extensions combined with Fibs, 10,800 is the next downside target (yellow arrows), which could happen swiftly or drag another week. Honestly, do not know which is worse. In another view, we see a range from 12565 to 11700, which the latter would attempt to provide some support (aqua arrows). Breaking down and out of this range, similarly points to circa 10,800, but in a more swift take down. Daily technicals employed here support the downside momentum and targets. So, look for support early-mid next week, if we get a new intraday low, yeah?
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Auguraltrader
Inflation in the driving seat - Tech the circuit breaker? ⚡️INVESTMENT CONTEXT After a brief break, the rout in equity markets resumed at full speed, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq dropping 4.04% and 4.73%, respectively, marking the worst day in Wall Street since 2020 Turkey is set to veto the entry of Sweden and Finland into NATO, as it resents the countries for their stance on Kurdish groups considered "terrorists" American big-box retailer Target (TGT) lost a quarter of its market value on May 18 in its worst one-day loss since 1987 - the very same thing happened the day prior to Walmart (WMT) on shifting consumption China is reportedly in bilateral negotiations with Russia to replenish its oil reserves Blockchain assets keep tumbling - yet the selloff appears to be tempering PROFZERO'S TAKE After taking a breather and in fact attempting to stage a rebound, U.S. equities collapsed over 4% in both S&P 500 and Nasdaq, as fears of recession/stagflation gripped investors. No later than May 18, ProfZero cautioned against bull traps - sudden, brief equity rallies that could trick into believing the bottom has finally been reached. Market fundamentals keep telling a different story - As Adam Posen put it, Russia's invasion of Ukraine is marking the end of the globalization era that kept inflation unnaturally low for two decades. ProfZero sees inflation here to stay (so long, "transitory") until new paradigms emerge for energy (U.S. energy possibly biting into OPEC+ dominance), soft commodities (re-activation of Ukraine ports could bring relief across cereals and fertilizers) and semiconductors (reshaping of global supply chains). Yet, ProfZero is puzzled by the apparent markets' distaste for technology stocks - in the words of Microsoft's CEO Satya Nadella, digital technology is indeed one of the most powerful deflationary forces. A call definitely worth heeding On May 19, Sri Lanka’s central bank confirmed that the country missed a deadline for foreign debt repayments, thus earmarking the first sovereign default in the Asia-Pacific region this century, according to Moody’s. President Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s government said that the State would stop repaying its international debt to conserve foreign currency reserves for imports such as fuel, medicine and food. The default, sized at USD 51bn, was sadly within ProfZero's radar - and might now be followed by others in developing countries, as the costs for basic staples become unsustainable Catalysts fail to emerge also on the geopolitical front. The internal confrontation clogging NATO on the accession of Sweden and Finland may in fact rupture into wider ripples, which could end up bolstering Russia's ambitions now that its troops gained control of razed port-city Mariupol. As China warned of a "dangerous situation" forming in Taiwan, while reportedly sourcing crude oil from Russia, ProfZero can't help seeing the looming risk of ramifications spreading from the Ukraine conflict, with anything but predictable outcomes The European Commission announced a USD 220bn plan to end the EU’s reliance on Russian oil and gas by 2027. The proposal entails importing gas from other countries, accelerating the transition to renewable energy and reducing energy consumption. ProfZero concurs that many good things start with good plans. ProfZero also thinks though that in over 20 years it has seen many good plans in EU - remaining just good plans A taunt in the meltdown: why crypto's fallout is slowing? Have we all run out of shorts?
CME:BTC1!
by ProfZero
Is this the Bottom for ARKK?US Fed is likely to FLUSH OUT weak traders this week, possibly setting up for a big shift in how capital is deployed across the globe. My opinion suggests capital will continue to rush into undervalued US assets as the US Dollar stays strong. If the Fed comes in at 25 to 50pb today for the rate hike, I see this strengthening many US stocks and potentially weakening global economies under extreme debt levels. Things could come fast-and-furious over the next few months. Pay attention to my research.
AMEX:ARKKLong
by BradMatheny
Is ARKK Seeking A bottom Near Fib Amplitude Support?Looking at this chart, one could argue the past 12+ months have erased all of the excesses of the post-COVID speculative rally. One could argue that ARKK is nearing historical support and may be attempting to establish some type of base/bottom levels. I would suggest that ARKK may attempt a "wash-out" low price over the next few weeks - where price attempts to FLUSH OUT early longs. But it seems to me ARKK is nearing strong support from 2018-19 levels and may attempt a recovery rally throughout the end of 2022 (possibly). Time will tell. May be worth looking into some CALL options on ARKK at these levels?
AMEX:ARKKLong
by BradMatheny
FAANG stocks have reverted to StdDev center - finding supportFAANG stocks have reverted more than 15% recently - attempting to find support. My predictive modeling systems are suggesting the markets are still holding a long-term bullish price trend (for now). Even though the short-term price trend is bearish, pay attention to how this "revaluation" process is playout out and how the strength of the US Dollar results in a determined "Capital Shift" related to US assets. We may see some surprising price moves over the next few weeks and months ahead. If you are skilled enough, there may be some great opportunities for 5 to 10+ day trades over the rest of 2022. Look for support near $13,050 on the NQ to hold (briefly).
NASDAQ:METALong
by BradMatheny
2
NASDAQ100 Confirms Bearish Reversal, But Pullback Can Be NearHello traders and investors! Stock market is closed today due to Easter holidays, but we want to share an interesting development on technology sector NASDAQ100. NASDAQ is turning back down in current risk-off sentiment, which may last for some time, as we see a new intraday five-wave bearish reversal from the previous highs. In Elliott wave theory, every five-wave reversal suggests a change in the trend, at least for short period of time. After every five waves we can expect a three-wave corrective pullback before a trend continuation. Well, as you can see, NASDAQ100 clearly shows a five-wave drop from the highs that can be slowly coming to an end, as we see it trading in wave (v). So, ideally we will see some support formation in the projected area early next week that can be followed by a three-wave (a)-(b)-(c) corrective rally back to 14300-14700 resistance zone before we will see a bearish continuation. Be humble and trade smart! If you like what we do, then please like and share our idea. Disclosure: Please be informed that information we provide is NOT a trading recommendation or investment advice. All of our work is for educational purposes only.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by ew-forecast
1
NASDAQ delivered as expected, and continues...Previously heads up , The short week filled in as expected with a continued breakdown below the weekly 55EMA. This is bearish confirmation (without doubt) that the technical bounce is done. On the weekly basis, a higher low or a return to 13K is in the cards for the weeks following. The daily charts show the weak rally and the week ended with an overwhelming outcome, in the form of a "bearish engulfing"; not quite so as it did not totally engulf from the open, nonetheless, you can obviously see the bearishness. The first support to bounce is not expected to hold, and perhaps the second support would hold better. Failing which, 13K is the support to look towards. Daily technicals are in bearish territory, so expect some downside after the Easter weekend. At this point, it is not (yet) looking extremely bearish. Not yet. Stay safe!
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Auguraltrader
2
Marqeta $MQ is accumulating $MQ is accumulating between $8.40 and $12.43. It is still sideway not ready to buy but once It breaks $12.43 and stay above, It will be ready to get in. set your alarms... Marqeta provides tools that allow its customers to create and issue customized payment cards that are specifically designed for their business needs. Marqeta is disrupting a large and growing market. Purchase volume on U.S. payment cards was $7.97 trillion in 2020 and expected to grow to $12.86 trillion by 2025. Marqeta's total processing volume of $111.1 billion in 2021 is a small fraction of the market. Marqeta has a win-win business model. Using Marqeta's tools, a customer earns interchange fees and delivers a better experience to its own customers. Utilizing Marqeta's tools is more of an opportunity than a cost. Marqeta's tools are delivered via open, well-documented APIs. Vetted customers can create a card program and begin issuing cards rapidly, which should lead to rapid adoption of Marqeta's tools and growth in Marqeta's total processing volume.
NASDAQ:MQ
by TheBullseye
NASDAQ... Oh BearThe NASDAQ is in somewhat of a freefall state having broke down very quickly over last week and one day this week. The breakdown came after warnings with upper tails in the weekly candle, as previously warned. And then the breakdown of the weekly 55EMA. The daily chart shows the clear indications as well as long decisive bearish candles clice through the supports. 13775 (red support line) is the immediate, albeit weak, support. 13520 (gray line) probably a better bounce support. Daily technicals (MACD and RPM) are bearish. It is only 12 April... not even 10 May.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Auguraltrader
NVDA triple bottom on the 1hrNVDA with a massive triple bottom on the 1hr , also the last time the MACD was this low and about to cross we jumped from 210ish to 270 in 7 days. Both RSI and Stoch are heavily oversold and are about to fly back to the upside. Assuming we are beginning to consolidate while using a fib ext we could see a bounce up to the 300 to 320 mark in the coming days, weeks, to say the least I am super bullish on NVDA right now. With ongoing semi conductor shortages clogging up the market I only see prices on things like gpus to rise, this will reflect very well on the balance sheet and will allow a lot more industry volume to funnel right into the hands of the giants like NVDA...
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by impossiblebull
it has the chance to be a descending crabit needs to breakout the descending blue line to think about the reversal patterns. X=$0.01 AB=0.61 XA BC=0.38 AB 0.88 BC=$0.47 *crab reversal* 1.13 BC=$0.263 *cypher and shark reversal* 1.41 BC=$0.134 *cypher reversal* *1.6 BC=$0.082 *shark reversal* 0.78 XA=$0.073 2 BC=$0.0329 *0.88 XA=$0.0292 *bat* 2.24 BC=$0.0185 *2.6 BC=$0.0074 *final target of bat* 1.13 XA=$0.003 *3.6 BC=$0.0006 4.23 BC=$0.0001 *1.6 XA=$0 *final target of crab*
LShort
by HarmonicPitchforks
NVDIA consolidating above its 4H MA200. Long-term target $445.NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) broke and closed above its 4H MA200 (green trend-line) last Thursday and in a surprising display of bullish strength, it has managed to hold it as a Support and consolidate. That was the first series of 1D candle closings above the 4H MA200 since January 14. If this fails and the stock closes 2 or more 1D candles below the 4H MA200, we expect a pull-back to the big support cluster provided by the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and the 1W MA50 (red trend-line). This has been the ultimate long-term Support Zone and buy level since September 2019. At the same time, the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), has turned sideways, and is the medium-term Support level. The first target is the $346 All Time High and the long-term one is the 1.5 Fibonacci extension at $445. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by TradingShot
1
TESLA on a major bullish break-out. Possible $1500 target in Q3.Tesla (TSLA) broke this week above the All Time High (ATH) Lower Highs trend-line, giving a strong bullish signal. The pattern is replicating the break-out sequence of June 2021. In fact the whole Peak-Correction Cycle of January - June 2021 is identical to that of November 2021 - March 2022 (so far). As this 1D chart shows, both patterns bottomed below the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), with the RSI Double Bottoming around the 30.00 reading. What followed in July - September 2021 after the Lower Highs bullish break-out, was a slow Channel Up that ended violently with a parabolic rally just above the 1.5 Fibonacci extension level. That level is at $1650 from the recent market bottom so we are setting a target zone within $1500 - $1650 by the end of Q3. * BONUS MATERIAL * See how well another tech giant, Apple, is performing after our March 11 buy call exactly on the market bottom: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by TradingShot
Growth vs. Value: Skating to Where the Puck Will BeHockey legend Wayne Gretsky famously said: "Skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been." This sometimes applies in investing and trading. Towards what object have investors been skating, figuratively speaking? Currently, financial media, fund managers, and commentators have been emphasizing the opportunities in value over growth for several months. And for good reason: Energy, a value / cyclical sector unloved for about a decade, has outperformed every other sector this year by a huge margin. It has risen by approximately 20.5% since January 1, 2022. Even it's uptrend channel could not contain it (although it looks to be consolidating at the moment or perhaps mean-reverting). Increasingly, market participants have been "skating" towards value areas and away from growth for over a year now, as anyone who has been burned by long trades in tech / disruptive innovation knows. For example, a spread chart (also called a ratio chart) of ARKK/SPY shows just how dramatically growth has struggled. ARKK is a well-known US ETF containing high-beta stocks typically categorized as disruptive-innovation stocks, i.e., high growth names. This chart evidences just how much growth has struggled vs. the S&P 500. Notice, though, how this spread chart shows how close to major, long-term support the ratio has moved. Examples abound of high-growth names having been crushed in powerful bear markets in those names. Some of them are even top names with innovative products and services and an impressive record of earnings / sales growth: Square ( NYSE:SQ ) has declined about -68% from all-time highs, Upstart ( NASDAQ:UPST ) fell about -81% from its high to its low in late January 2022, and ( Roku ) dropped about 78% from its peaks. Even large cap tech not gone unscathed: Facebook NASDAQ:FB suffered a nearly -50% decline after a huge earnings / guidance disappointment. But in general, large-cap tech has been the exception in growth until the selloff this year. While growth / tech in general has struggled for months, large-cap tech names such as GOOGL, AAPL, MSFT, and NVDA have outperformed. Even AMZN's sideways move for about a year should be considered outperformance relative to other high-growth names as shown by the ARKK chart above: see the chart below, which is a relative chart of AMZN vs. ARKK, revealing that even with AMZN's lengthy sideways move, it has dramatically outperformed growth / tech names more generally. Markets are in constant flux. So often, just when the little people (retail traders like me) take notice of a powerful new trend or outperformance, it ends. So I'm trying to watch for where markets are moving rather than focusing on where they are. In short, is growth bottoming out relative to value? Here are a few charts to consider. 1. The main weekly chart above (also copied below) is a spread chart showing the ratio of NASDAQ:IJT (small-cap growth) vs. small cap value. Notice how close to major long-term up trendline support the ratio has moved. And the weekly ratio is also right at support at March 2021 and May-June 2021 lows. The RSI for this relative chart also shows that it's oversold to 33.65, a level that only appears in multi-month (and often multi-year) intervals. Even the two RSI lows in 1H 2021 occurred 2 months apart, but this is the exception looking back longer term. 2. Large-cap growth is right at support at a long-term uptrend line. See the weekly spread chart of the ratio between XLK/SPY. AMEX:XLK is a US ETF that is heavily weighted towards large-cap tech. 3. Equal-weighted growth vs. equal-weighted tech RYG/RPV is also very close to long-term upward trendline support. 4. Interest rates are nearing long-term downtrend channel resistance—at the upper line (the actual downtrend line). Interest rates have soared powerfully since mid-2020, and the Federal Reserve has hawkishly signaled coming rate hikes, and market participants have behaved as though rates will keep on going to the moon—by selling tech / growth, which struggle when rates rise b/c of discounting of future cash flows used to value such names. The viewpoint that rates could turn around in the near future seems radical, contrarian and unreasonable. But consider this chart below. Could rates turn around just after a large move just after millions of market participants have been flocking towards value names that outperform in rising-rate environments? Some well-known experts have already taken this view. www.cnbc.com It seems priced into the market right now that the 10-year yield could continue rising, that the interest rates could even breakout higher above long-term downtrend resistance, and that the Fed is likely behind the curve in controlling inflation. It seems consensus that value could continue to outperform long-term, and that growth could break even long-term support levels and continue to plummet. But if this is priced into the market, shouldn't one consider buying what's already priced in? Especially because maybe what is priced into the market will not last. Thinking about where the "puck is going to be" may suggest that tech / growth is making a multi-month or multi-year low or that interest rates are going to pullback in the next few months, allowing tech to thrive again.
NASDAQ:IJT
by SquishTrade
4
STX Set For A Quick Jump Next Week?Based on historical movement, the trough could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending top should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated BUY on March 11, 2022 with a closing price of 87.33. If this instance is successful, that means the stock should rise to at least 88.71 which is the bottom of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock rise 7.129% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the bottom of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock rise 9.993% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock rise 12.625% from the signal closing price which is the top of the smaller green box. The maximum rise on record would see a move to the top of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well. The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The peak of the rise can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max rise occurs within the limit of study at 35 trading bars after the signal. A 1% rise must occur over the next 35 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 2 trading bars; half occur within 7 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 18 trading bars. The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement. As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
NASDAQ:STXLong
by StockSignaler