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NASDAQ technical rebound in playAs projected (in previous idea post), the NASDAQ futures spiked down to (almost) 13K and then bounced immediately. This happened on Thursday after the open initiation of the Russia-Ukraine global event. The following day continued the recovery rally. The Weekly candlestick is now very bullish looking as there formed an intraweek ultra long tail of almost 1K index points. While technicals point to a bearish scenario overall, the NASDAQ was briefly in bear correction territory but recovered. This suggest bullishness. The Daily candlestick pattern is also rather bullish, with a similar intraday long tail and a near marubozu body engulfing, followed through by another bullish candle that closed the day (and week) at the top. The MACD has a bullish divergence that is just turning upwards in support. Fractal bullishness here. The next couple of weeks in March are indicated to be bullish, through to 14.5K, and testing 15.5K. Whether the bullish effort is sustainable through past March remains to be seen. I am optimistic for the NASDAQ into March, but weary as March wanes into April...
CME_MINI:NQ1!Long
by Auguraltrader
NASDAQ under the microscopeWas just looking at the NASDAQ futures and the price actions over the market holiday yesterday amidst the hype and concerns over Russia-Ukraine issues. In the NQ1! 4H chart, recent multiple failures of the 55EMA (4H and Daily) technically projected downside for the NASDAQ (amongst other equity indexes). There appears to be a cyclical fear pattern over the last month, and in this current cycle, it should peak down today. Am expecting a spike down type of peak, that tests the support, breaks it somewhat and then a likely rebound ensues (as previously posted that NQ1! should be testing support). That's what the technicals are hinting to me anyways. There is a near support, but I am looking at possible spike down to 13,000 in the coming days. Longer term still looks volatile, and longer term target is still lower for now. Absolutely plausible for a major DCB and then a massive turn of events. I do have a date in mind though... 10 MAY 2022. Watch that date! Stay safe and well!!!
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by Auguraltrader
7
Spotify exploding back higher. My expectations.Hi everyone, Let's take a look at current price action of NYSE:SPOT . The stock is up 12% on the day with the highest volume in a while. Price is currently at 193 . The zone of 190-214 is a no man's land. Price has cut through this zone in the past, both on the way up and down. That's due to thin volume profile structure. We take 196 , we go higher fast, up to next solid supply zone of 215-220 . Then I expect a consolidation for a while between 220 and 244 . Ultimately price should gravitate towards the POC of the last 2 years at 266 . Beware of the earnings call in 2 days! Today might be one of those pre-earnings pumps. As always, trade wisely and good luck! ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclaimer!!! This is not financial advise.
NYSE:SPOTLong
by AyBe_Invest
Twitter is at the crossroads. Turn up or die.Hi everyone, Today we are taking a look at NYSE:TWTR stock. This poor bird has been flying down at an astonishing rate. However, unlike most young tech companies, this bad boy has been to hell and back again. NYSE:TWTR was scraping the bottom during 2016-2017 and managed to recover eventually. Now we are in the steep downward channel. If you zoom out you will see that this week we entered HVN, which is around 31-34 zone. This is the second highest volume zone in the history of Twitter trading. Plus, we bounced from the support on the weekly at 32 and this week saw higher overall volume than in the previous down weeks. Conclusion: Twitter stock price is looking very attractive right now. I have no active position, but I will buy some shares at the end of day. Of course if we don't go limit down for some mysterious reason. Let me know what you think of Twitter long. As always, trade wisely and good luck! ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclaimer!!! This is not financial advise.
NYSE:TWTRLong
by AyBe_Invest
Nvidia stock is falling hard. What's the turnaround point?Hi everyone, This time we are analyzing yet another beat-down tech stock NASDAQ:NVDA . Unlike most other tech stocks, Nvidia is a giant. But even giants fall. The analysis: We can see exactly the same market structure I reviewed in my Cloudflare idea: When Nvidia stock went parabolicly up in October-November 2021, it created poor thin volume profile. These thin areas not only tend to be revisited, but they also provide no support , when the stock is falling. Therefore, we fall to the next high volume zone, which is 220-226 . Now we are at 233 and the structure is almost repaired. 230 is the next support zone. However, it did not see that much volume in the past. Therefore, I expect the price to return to 220s and catch a bid there. Please let me know what you think of Nvidia stock currently. As always, trade wisely and good luck! ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclaimer!!! This is not financial advise
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by AyBe_Invest
4
Unity stock is on sale...time to Unite and buy!Hi everyone, Wow, what a start of the year! Stock market is beaten up badly. But you know what that means for an intelligent investor. Many great opportUNITYies to buy favorite stocks at discounts. Today we are revising my NYSE:U stock analysis. The stock is currently down more than 50% from the Nov tops (big ooph). We have just entered the highest volume zone, established last year. And we are rapidly approaching the Golden buy zone. All indicators point at a magical number of 100 . Just look at the chart! All stars allign perfectly at a price zone of 100 . POC, HVN, 2 long-term support lines, all point to 100 . I bet algos know about that zone too. So there are LOTS of resting buy orders. Therefore, I will add massively to my NYSE:U holdings at the next open. Let me know if you like this stock. As always, trade wisely and good luck! ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclaimer!!! This is not financial advise
NYSE:ULong
by AyBe_Invest
The market is overly complacent about interest rate riskMarkets Have Been Celebrating No Corporate Tax Hike Stocks have been marching higher as the risk of a near-term corporate tax hike evaporated due to hard bargaining by centrist Democrats Joe Manchin and Kristen Sinema. Prediction markets are now putting the odds of no corporate tax hike at about 88%: www.predictit.org In fact, the single largest line item in the Build Back Better Act is actually a large tax *cut* which disproportionately benefits the highest earners. That's certainly a bullish development for markets, because it means more billionaire money chasing stocks. But They've Been Ignoring the Risk That Interest Rates Will Rise I think markets are ignoring interest rate risk, though. The passage of the Build Back Better act means that the US Treasury will be issuing a lot more treasury bonds over the next few years in order to fund new spending, and it will be doing so at a time when the Federal Reserve is tapering its bond-buying program. That means that private investors will have to absorb that over-supply of treasuries. And private investors are likely to demand higher interest rates than the Federal Reserve would. In other words, a supply-and-demand shock in the bond market could be about to send interest rates up. Bonds May Have Just Flashed a Warning Sign Today TLT (a major treasury bond ETF) made a big bearish engulfing candle today and closed below the 200-day EMA. (Bond prices move the opposite direction from rates, so rising rates = falling bonds.) The move came after the Fed's announcement that it will cut bond-buying in half this month and stop bond-buying altogether by mid-next year. I bought a TLT put yesterday and took profit on it today at the 200-day EMA for a 30% gain, but TLT actually continued downward and ended the day below the 200-day. It still has support from the 20-day EMA, so the question tomorrow is whether the 20-day will hold. If TLT doesn't hold support at the 20-day, then I think we're likely to see tech and pharma stocks follow it down. We could well be at the beginning of a significant correction for both bonds and stocks. Rising rates would be bad for growth companies, and especially bad for cash-poor companies that finance their growth through debt. (Pharmaceuticals, for instance, could be especially hard-hit.) Rising interest rates make it harder for those companies to get financing. The Nasdaq index has recently been selling off whenever rates rise (and bonds fall). Rising rates are better for banks than for tech, and could lead to outperformance by XLF. Smart Money Has Been Going Short Bonds for Months For the last couple months, a lot of smart money has been going short bonds on the expectation that bond rates will rise and bonds will fall. Ordinarily I'd hesitate to pile into such a crowded trade, but sometimes the crowd is right. The put/call ratio on TLT is 1.7, a big bearish bet. And an indirect way to be short bonds is to be short tech. The put/call ratio on the tech-heavy QQQ right now is an even more bearish 2.0. If you have heavy long exposure, especially to tech and growth, now is probably a good time to put some hedges on. Markets Have Been Celebrating No Corporate Tax Hike Stocks have been marching higher as the risk of a near-term corporate tax hike evaporated due to hard bargaining by centrist Democrats. In fact, the single largest line item in the Build Back Better Act is actually a large tax *cut* which disproportionately benefits the highest earners. That's certainly a bullish development for markets, because it means more billionaire money chasing stocks. But They've Been Ignoring the Risk That Interest Rates Will Rise I think markets are ignoring interest rate risk, though. The passage of the Build Back Better act means that the US Treasury will be issuing a lot more treasury bonds over the next few years in order to fund new spending, and it will be doing so at a time when the Federal Reserve is tapering its bond-buying program. That means that private investors will have to absorb that over-supply of treasuries, and they are likely to demand higher interest rates than the Federal Reserve would. A supply-and-demand shock in the bond market could be about to send interest rates up. Bonds May Have Just Flashed a Warning Sign Today TLT (a major treasury bond ETF) made a big bearish engulfing candle today and closed below the 200-day EMA. (Bond prices move the opposite direction from rates, so rising rates = falling bonds.) The move came after the Fed's announcement that it will cut bond-buying in half this month and stop bond-buying altogether by mid-next year. I had bought a TLT put yesterday and took profit on it today at the 200-day EMA for a 30% gain, but TLT actually continued downward and ended the day below the 200-day. It still has support from the 20-day EMA, so the question tomorrow is whether the 20-day will hold. If TLT doesn't hold support at the 20-day, then I think we're likely to see tech and pharma stocks follow it down. We could well be at the beginning of a significant correction for both bonds and stocks. Rising rates would be bad for growth companies, and especially bad for cash-poor companies that finance their growth through debt. (Pharmaceuticals, for instance, could be especially hard-hit.) Rising interest rates make it harder for those companies to get financing. The Nasdaq index has recently been selling off whenever rates rise (and bonds fall). Rising rates are better for banks than for tech, and could lead to outperformance by XLF. Smart Money Has Been Going Short Bonds for Months For the last couple months, a lot of smart money has been going short bonds on the expectation that bond rates will rise. (Bond prices move the opposite direction from rates, meaning that rising rates cause prices to go down.) Ordinarily I'd hesitate to pile into such a crowded trade, but sometimes the crowd is right. The put/call ratio on TLT is 1.7, a big bearish bet. And an indirect way to be short bonds is to be short tech. The put/call ratio on the tech-heavy QQQ right now is an even more bearish 2.0. Inflation Numbers Will Determine Where We Go from Here FOMC futures are currently forecasting that the Fed will hike rates 2-3 times by the end of next year, with a small chance of 4 rate hikes. As But as John Cochrane argues, FOMC futures have historically tended to be too hawkish: johnhcochrane.blogspot.com There's a lot of political incentive in Washington, D.C. to keep rates low, so the Fed almost certainly won't raise rates until inflation forces their hand. (Raising rates is primarily a tool to control inflation.) So keep an eye on the inflation numbers as we go forward from here. Inflation over the past decade has tended undershoot expectations, and many economists still believe that the current bout of inflation will prove to be transitory. So it may well turn out that we just get one or two rate hikes, and then inflation stabilizes and everything returns to normal. For now, I am expecting a short-term correction in both bonds and stocks, but a stabilization in the medium term. Shipping prices have been falling: And commodities prices look like they may start to come down as well: Hopefully these are early signs that inflation will be transitory after all. But the last reading on the Citi Inflation Surprise Index was an all-time high, so beware. If the pandemic has taught us anything, it's that there's definitely a limit to how far and fast we can push deficit spending before inflation kicks in. Pandemic deficit spending in 2020 caused high inflation in 2021. The question now is whether inflation will run away or normalize. This is an unprecedented situation, so nobody really knows. But a lot will depend on whether the Fed and Congress can practice some fiscal discipline, or at least convince markets that they will.
NASDAQ:TLTShort
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
15
Upstart crumbles making new lows. Will it bounce?Hi everyone, Today I will demonstrate another example of a catastrophic dump in growth technology stock. This time we are taking a look at Upstart NASDAQ:UPST . The stock IPOed in December 2020 and I still remember the hype created around it. In August 2021 it started goind parabolic. Classic growth IPO stock. The entirety of fintwit community seemed to hold this stock in their portfolios. Everyone was boasting how their YTD return is 80% thanks to Upstart performance. That's when you know it's time to get out. NASDAQ:UPST topped in October 15. The stock was valued at 420 times earnings. It's price fell 72% in three months. From 401 all the way down to 111 . Even after 72% fall TTM P/E ratio of the stock is 113. Now, the question is will it bounce ? The stock currently is in a very steep downtrend, which will be broken easily, once determined buyers step in. Thus far, they are nowhere in sight. Since the IPO by far the largest portion of volume traded occurred in 122-137 price range. In order to rebound we need to see acceptence in this area. Otherwise, look out for these levels below: 103, 81, 43. Please let me know what are your thoughts on a current state of the tech sector. As always, trade wisely and good luck! ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclaimer!!! This is not financial advise
NASDAQ:UPST
by AyBe_Invest
1
$NDQ #QQQ $QQQ pulling a Wu-Tang patternlooking at the 1hr chart, there is a classic W pattern formation going on here. December was a tough month for tech, and looks to be finally recovering. This weeks moves show a break above the prior down channel, with tightly wound consolidation. TBH I see this going in either direction, but with the tax loss harvesting done for 2021, my money is on volume buy-ins this month, with a beginning of a reversal in March when tapering is ending and rates are set to go up. NFA
TVC:NDQ
by corgicapitalllc
AMAZON The Triangle's of +100% riseThis chart is for the long-term investors. Being on the 1M (monthly) time-frame, AMZN has been trading within a Triangle (Ascending) since September 2020. This neutral mega-phase, has had many investors questioning whether the overbought state of early 2020 has made the stock lose its bullish dynamics. This pattern comparison with the previous neutral phase puts things into perspective. As you see the same Triangle pattern was formed from August 2018 to March 2020. On a monthly basis, every candle closed below the Resistance and only when that broke, Amazon started a parabolic rally. In 2021 Triangle we've have two major monthly break-outs but both retraced below the Resistance within the same month, leaving just a candle wick reminding of the failed attempt. The stock has a tendency of rising more than +100% when such break-outs take place. If you are a long-term trader/ investor, look for a 1M candle close above the Resistance as confirmation of a +100% rally. * Useful correlation: As the chart above shows, the LMACD indicates that Amazon is going trough distinct Cycles. Right now it shows that we are closer to a bottom. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NASDAQ:AMZN
by TradingShot
7