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Anatomy of a NASDAQ interim topAn interesting set of events just occurred in the NASDAQ futures. In early November, the NASDAQ (and most market indices) spiked in a bullish rally, only to find a resistance at about 12,000 in mid-November. It then retraced to test the support at 11,560. While it bounced off the support then, there was a momentary spike down to 11,528. This is the significant low for this consolidation range at the top of the short term rally. The bounce brought it to 11830, where a resistance level was failed. This was then followed by a revisit to the consolidation range support (bottom of yellow box). About an hour ago, a lower low was triggered (red support line) and currently the NASDAQ futures is struggling to keep above the consolidation zone support. Technical indicators MACD and VolDiv are slightly bearish, boding a more likely breakdown. MACD crossed under, and remains under the zeroline. VolDiv is not uptrending, but below its SMA, and looking for a breakdown below zero line. Also noted is the green "BD" where it denotes a Break Down of an auto-plotted trendline support. The price action is a little long to the downside, and has been support hugging. It is likely to have some sort of a rebound, but what happens next depends on whether there is more juice to sustain. A technical rebound is due and appears to be forming up at time of writing. Definitely, is there enough juice to get this to the upper part of the range? The other thing here is that a decisive breakdown out of the consolidation range is needed and appears to be lining up for the later part of the week. This is invalidated IF a technical rally closes above 11850. Wait for it...
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by Auguraltrader
Bear Market, Bull Market, or Sector Rotation? KNOW THE ROTATION! What Is Sector Rotation? Investors are always looking for opportunities to boost returns and reduce risk in their portfolios. One way to do this is by understanding and utilizing sector rotation. In simple terms, sector rotation is the process of moving money from one sector to another. In order to take advantage of positive market trends investors will want to pay close attention to these rotations. In general, there are two types of market conditions that investors need to be aware of: bull markets and bear markets. Sector rotation is a strategy that investors use to take advantage of these market conditions. The idea is to rotate your investments into sectors that are doing well in the current market conditions and away from sectors that are not. For example, in a historical bull market, you would want to be invested in sectors such as technology and healthcare. In a bear market, you would want to be invested in sectors such as utilities and consumer staples. Sector rotation can be a helpful tool for investors to boost returns and reduce risk. However, it’s important to understand how it works before implementing it in your own portfolio. Keep reading to learn more about sector rotation and some current YTD chart examples of what it looks like. Lets start with a philosophical question in regards to the market; is there really such thing as a bull and bear market? One could argue that there is not, and the market is in fact a cycle of sector rotations. Liquidity going out one, to another, again and again. Take for example the 4 tickers of the main post image MSFT , NASDAQ:TSLA , NASDAQ:GOOGL , NASDAQ:AAPL - these are considered Tech Stocks (yes TSLA is a tech stock!). YTD performance of all these stocks are in the red. Please take the time and study their trends. To the novice that had a portfolio made up of 80% tech, they would look at this chart and scream BEAR MARKET. But is it? It is impossible for the average trader to tell, but not all that money was "lost" in a bear market. It simply was rotated to defensive sectors. Sure, some money was taken out of the overall system I am sure but logic dictates that the majority of the money just found a new home. Investors in tech in these cases could ride the storm and average down (dollar cost averaging), write call options, or purchase puts (along with many other strats) - aka play a bear market in THAT sector. The terms "bull" and "bear" market are used to describe market conditions where prices are either rising or falling. Some people believe that there is a fundamental difference between the two types of markets, while others believe that they are simply two sides of the same coin. Ultimately, there is no right or wrong answer, and it is up to each individual to decide what they believe. So where did the Tech money rotate to? For those of you that need only bull markets to trade, find the rotation and follow it. Never marry a stock or sector - money moves fast and is prone to jumping ship when major events happen. Here are 3 charts that show areas that bulls have had success: EX1: Staples and Consumer; NYSE:HSY , NYSE:MCD , NASDAQ:OLLI , NYSE:WMT EX2: Energy, Industrial, Insurance; NYSE:KMI , NYSE:CAT , NYSE:OXY , NYSE:ABBV EX3: Defensive and Insurance; NASDAQ:HON , NYSE:RTX , NYSE:AFL , NYSE:CI If you take the time and study the charts above you will see that not all is bearish when you know where to look. Looking at these rotations can start to paint a larger picture when studying ETFs or the overall market in a national/global economy. Especially when it comes to finding a fair value area in the middle of a downed market. Recovery off of a bear market should be equitable across multiple sectors. In the current case (today) we see that the rotation into "defensive" stocks (all the stocks mention in EX1, EX2, and EX3). As there is a small pinch of hope that inflation could be slowing, the moves have been liquidity into these defensive sectors - not a sign of a healthy recovery (yet) in my opinion. Right now we are seeing more institutional interest in companies like HSY, MRK, CI, HON and less interest in Energy. Energy is a great sector to look at currently to start to see that shift. We can look at commodities like GOLD and see the increased attention and bullish run it has had recently. Remember, intuitions want to create the largest positions they can , but over time so as not to raise a flag to others. To find sector rotation: 1) Familiarize yourself with the S&P sector funds like the AMEX:XLF , AMEX:XLP , AMEX:XLE , AMEX:XLU , etc START LARGE - look at the Monthly, Weekly, and Daily 2) Scan for stocks with rapid price drops and identify sectors that may be hurting 3) Scan for stocks with rapid rising price WITH higher than average volume (preferable increasing volume as well) 4) Visualize the sectors in a heatmap. Size by Volume (Monthly) and Color by Performance (Monthly). Since this is constantly changing, I suggest taking a screen shot of this map every week - this will be the best way to "see" the money rotate. 5) When going through 2-4 consider comparing small and large cap companies as well - as this too can hold its own rotation. 6) Stay on top of news, read read read read. Understand the world around you and rely on change. 7) Utilize Smart Money Concepts. Please visit LUX ALGO's page for this, as he has made a beautiful indicator and strategy based around SMI and institutional order blocks. 8) Conduct an RSI or Stochastic RSI study to identify divergences in OVERBOUGHT or OVERSOLD conditions. 9) VIX VIX VIX - yes we are talking sector rotation and the VIX is an "overall" reflection of the market in whole but looking at areas of the VIX (ie 20 and 45) can give signs of upcoming rotation. Although it may not point where, it may describe when these rotations can occur. If you like this post and would like a more detailed follow up, please comment below so I can see your interest. This is a very extensive topic in which it may take several posts to fully write out in detail. This is post 1 and meant to be an introduction, as I know that almost every line below can be heavily expanded upon. Happy trading everyone!
NASDAQ:MSFT
by OccamsPhazer
Joe Gun2Head Trade - Inverse head and shoulders on NASDAQTrade Idea: Buying NASDAQ Reasoning: Inverse head and shoulders on NASDAQ Entry Level: 11773 Take Profit Level: 12900 Stop Loss: 11523 Risk/Reward: 4.54:1 Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
ULong
by Signal_Centre
S&P 500 RECESSION ANALYSIS!EARLIER, i had posted saying if the us markets goes further down what will be there point. (check the link section) lets go on further, recession means what earned everything lost, reached its breakeven point. what profit gained has gone away, with net having no loss and no profit. FIBONACCI ANALYSIS: Fibonacci describes this statement in a very beautiful manner. if the price is trading at the 0.5 level then it is has reached its recession point. although do note that 0.5 level is also a deciding level. okay, i will come to this later. lets talk about this idea that why is the US started recovering. interest rates had started coming down, and the indices are reacting very positively towards it. i have explained to Fibonacci that now the recession has been completed according to this indicator. MOVING AVERAGES(50 AND 100): both the moving averages(50 and 100), are meeting at one point, and they will now repel and move upwards. RSI: yet it needs to give a breakout, but is definitely showing divergence(the two purple lines), relating to price action TREND LINES: THE BLUE TREND LINE: yet needs to be breached, and yes this is the move that will make the break of it. many of the great tech stocks have massively come down, and now they are showing divergence and a good upside move is gonna come. FINAL WORDS: US markets will have a boom in their upside movement, as many of them kept on selling their positions, and such the interest rates have started coming down and will become normal within 1-2 years, so from now onwards the next year will be a great run for the US markets. i will come to my point which i earlier which i had left in the middle, in my previous s&p analysis(link below), i had mentioned if s&p goes further down then recession stage, then at what point will it go down, and what will be the levels furtheron. but since interest rates have started coming down, and mostly all the other economical news has been factored, i say that now there is a great space that us markets can have there bull run, and they will have, because its so clear that markets are tend to go upside, and they are the ones who react at first. thank you.
SP:SPXLong
by raghavchoudhary2016
Looking for a replacement for trading Twitter shares?Now that Elon Musk’s buyout of Twitter has been completed, and the company has been taken off the trading market, what comparable stocks can traders look to trade now? Of course, there are other social media compatriots that traders could turn to, or even other companies of a similar market capitalisation that are in takeover talks and abiding by a similar volatility. A stock that might just fit the bill could be the social media outlier; Pinterest. Pinterest sometimes likes to position itself as the antithesis of Twitter and Instagram, where users find inspiration rather than encountering toxicity and developing body-image disorders. While I can't speak to the truthfulness of this claim, Pinterest is still categorised as a social media platform and its stock price can be affected by some of the same micro and macroeconomic events that affect this sub-sector. As such, and as illustrated on the chart, Pinterest and Twitter have followed a very similar stock price trajectory. This parallel in stock prices would have been a lot closer if not for Musk’s bid for Twitter at an inflated price in April 2022, and the subsequent court battles that led to him eventually completing the buyout. Pinterest, like Twitter, may also start fielding takeover bids, hopefully at a chunky premium. In October 2021, PayPal offered $45 billion for Pinterest, which would have been the costliest acquisition of social media company since Microsoft bough LinkedIn for $26 billion in 2016. The bid would have represented a premium of 24.5% over PINS share price the day before the announcement. However, PayPal reneged its bid shortly after offering it when investor sentiment proved to be against the deal, and PayPal tanked ~12.0% in the three days after revealing an offer had been made. As of November 2022, the value of Pinterest has slipped to $16.5 billion and may be a more attractive prices for other suitors to come calling, especially if the value that PayPal’s board saw in Pinterest (and that Paypal’s investors overlooked) has been retained. Perhaps suggesting this is true was Pinterest's third-quarter earnings report in the final week of October 2022. Pinterest reported that its third-quarter revenue increased 8% year-over-year to $685 million. Pinterest shares have surged ~11% in the last five trading days. What make this remarkable is when you compare it to other social media and tech stocks, particularly Facebook which is down ~29%, and Alphabet (which owns YouTube) which is down ~8% since they reported their respective earnings around the same time last week. The latter has even been rumoured to be exploring an acquisition of Pinterest after Alphabet's CEO Sundar Pichai gave a coy response to a question put to him in September about targets the company was considering for takeover.
NYSE:PINS
by BlackBull_Markets
Applied Materials: Another Lower High?Applied Materials has recently bounced along with other technology stocks. But some trend followers may look for it to roll over. The first pattern on today’s chart is the line running along the highs of January and August. The chip-equipment stock is approaching that potential resistance area. Will it roll over again? The most recent price action may have already answered that question. After all, Wednesday’s peak was $0.06 below its monthly high from October 6. The S&P 500, in contrast, made new highs last week versus earlier in the month. That may reflect a lack of relative strength. Third, AMAT has been stalling at its 50-day simple moving average (SMA). Is the intermediate-term downtrend still in effect? Finally, stochastics are back to an overbought condition. TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more. Important Information TradeStation Securities, Inc., TradeStation Crypto, Inc., and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., all operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. You Can Trade, Inc. is also a wholly owned subsidiary of TradeStation Group, Inc., operating under its own brand and trademarks. TradeStation Crypto, Inc. offers to self-directed investors and traders cryptocurrency brokerage services. It is neither licensed with the SEC or the CFTC nor is it a Member of NFA. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products, and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Please click here for further important information explaining what this means. This content is for informational and educational purposes only. This is not a recommendation regarding any investment or investment strategy. Any opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of TradeStation or any of its affiliates. Investing involves risks. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options, futures, or digital assets); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Before trading any asset class, first read the relevant risk disclosure statements on the Important Documents page, found here: www.tradestation.com .
NASDAQ:AMAT
by TradeStation
SNAP May be an incredible buy opportunity based on Market PhasesSnap Inc (SNAP) hit new lows last Friday, completing a disastrous -90% drop from its All Time High (ATH). The stock market fundamentals couldn't be more negative and is the reason why the majority of the market is expecting the price to drop even more. Few are thinking to enter Snap here and who can blame them? However based on Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue's infamous Market Cycle Phases, the stock may be an incredible buy opportunity on the long-term as it appears to be trading in 'Despair' territory, below its mean and at the end of its 'Blow off Phase'. The Public and Dumb Money started entering during the Mania Phase, which is dominated by Enthusiasm, Greed and Delusion. The 2022 drop has spread fear, the price capitulated and all that is left now is to reverse on investors' despair and return to the mean. Does it look like a solid long-term buy opportunity to you? ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NYSE:SNAPLong
by TradingShot
4
NASDAQ - a bear rally turn to downside target updateJust a quick note that the recent NASDAQ (bear) rally appears to have run its course; on the 1H chart, it had a series of Lower Highs and Lower Lows (white lines), and appears to have completed the trend change pattern by breaching the support from the first Lower Low (red line). Given this pattern completion, a typical breakdown of the critical support would see a fall out to the next significant support level. Two of which are close to each other, and about 10,600. The MACD is supporting this view with the MACD crossing under the Signal line, and both crossing down into bearish territory below zero. In alignment, the Volume Divergence has similar cross down / cross under as well. The described breakdown happening in the Asian market hours might see a struggle to keep at the support level area and a probable dive later today at the pre-market opening or early market open hours. Having complete the pattern to the projected target present yet another breakdown which might see an overextension (perhaps early next week) to below 10,000 on the NASDAQ, as earlier expected to meet the downside projected target. An early warning to brace well as we go into the weekend and roll over to next week…
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Auguraltrader
NASDAQ has more downsideThe NASDAQ futures are ominous... for more downside movement, given that the first projected downside target has been hit, and exceeded. The NASDAQ weekly chart is bearish looking, with technical indicators supporting that view. Still aiming for <10K (9600). The daily chart has slightly better technicals on the MACD, but it is probably an artefact of the Thursday surge. Nonetheless, the Friday wash out bearish candle left no prisoners with closing at the YTD low. Bearish momentum is clear and present.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Auguraltrader
Nas 100 Correction (Official Bear Market) The Nas100 is at an important cross road after the close of the monthly candle of September 2022. The manner in which the monthly candle has closed may indicated that the Nas100 just gone from bull and now into an official bear market according to price behaviour. We can also see that price has created a change in market structure by means of a new low, which may signal the start of a bear market. This type of price behaving was last seen in 2008 when the Nas100 went into a correction of about 40% before creating a market bottom. We expect that a similar type of correction is on the cards this time around. Since are already in a correction we could see a further decline of between 20- 37% resulting in a total of between 43% - 57% decline since the peak formed in November 2021. This is in line with the interest rate hikes currently taking place in the US and around the world, as central banks try to control the ever increasing inflation, which will lead to a slow down in economic growth, a fall in company profits and result in job losses and a fall in consumer spending. The issues taking place in other part of the world such as the war between Russia and Ukraine and the covid19 lockdowns in China, one of the worlds largest economies is also not helping current global economic lock which puts further pressure on central banks to keep in hiking rates in the bid to bring down inflation.
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by NDOBObanks
AMD going after 2020 H&S that was ignored due to tech bubbleAMD formed a H&S topping pattern & has since broke below 100 psychological level & the neckline. It wants to retest 75, the neckline of a 2020 H&S that was bypassed because of the tech bubble. If the 75 neckline does not hold, the measured move may see a low of 49 or even a little lower.( due to the bigger H&S from ATH) However, it will be good to start averaging down in the 64 to 49 zone because of the many Fib levels in this area which may offer support. Shortterm bearish but longterm bullish. Semi-conductor & memory chips will benefit from the gaming, Metaverse, AI, Automation & EV boom. Not trading advice
NASDAQ:AMD
by xtremerider8
Nasdaq NQ hovering @wma200/mma50/June low zone;Diamond again?Nasdaq, si,liar to SPY has made 2 diamond patterns in May & June leading to a reversal with positive Rsi divergence. Could it be repeating similar set-up this Sept-Oct? It is currently hovering around the mma50+wma200+June low zone. Sometimes prices break a little below the diamond pattern first eating away the cut-losses before a reversal. If NQ makes another new low after Thursday’s economics data, it will be bad news. Not trading advice
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by xtremerider8
NASDAQ downside risk, clear and presentSimilar to the SPY analysis, the NASDAQ is actually slightly more bearish looking... The daily NQ1! chart has bearish indicators all around, and already is in the immediate downside target range, albeit earlier than projected. The recently broken supports now become resistances. The weekly chart appears even more bearish with the June lows appearing to be easily taken out, and a breakdown to <10,000 very feasible over the next 4-6 weeks.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Auguraltrader
NQ holds near-term bottom@11800;rally into FMOC bef a final dumpWith TSLA, AAPL & NVDA rallying on a risk-on Monday, NQ seems to be making positive divergences similar to June but this needs some follow-thru this week. It is holding 11800 with Friday”s hammer candle suggesting a shortterm low for the month. MACD also crossed into green territory. Another Diamond reversal pattern MAY be forming similar to June? BULLISH SCENARIO: My Elliott wave count would suggest a June low is in with the ABC correction ended. BUT I may be wrong logically with a 75 to 100 basis-point rate hike coming in Sept even with the market already pricing in a 75 pt hike. BUT MARKET IS IRRATIONAL. NQ may rally into Sept FOMC rate hike near 13k & then make a final dump on last week of Sept from an overbought condition. (NQ has to go above 13740 to confirm a higher high) No one knows where the final bottom will be before a Santa Claus rally. Possible supports are ma50, 12200 to remain within the upchannel or perhaps a retest of 11800 with the HHHL remaining intact. BEARISH CASE: NQ may rally into Sept FOMC but still comes back down to make a lower low than either 11800 or the June low. In this case, the positive divergence may extend up to an October rally. If 11800 or the June low of 11068 breaks, then the next stop will be the 10900 to 10500 yellow zone. Not trading advice
CME_MINI:NQ1!Long
by xtremerider8
NASDAQ hits the other type of bump!You could be well forgiven if you thought that the market was toying with you... in the last three weeks, we saw the NASDAQ follow through downside strongly, then ricochet off a support strongly, only to be yet again totally overwhelmed by the bears mauling the markets. In these volatile times, one need to be nimble, and this had been recently heads up in my earlier analyses. Having said all that, something interesting appears to have presented itself, particularly in the NASDAQ futures, NQ1!, and I do wonder how many had actually noticed this enigma. It will be discussed here, and we have to play the bull bear scenarios yet again; expected as the volatility is high and sudden changes can and will happen. We start with the NQ1! NASDAQ futures daily chart. We see that the week started as expected with a nice gap up follow through from last week Friday, above the 55EMA. Then with a Powell Pow-Wow, one single day engulfed and wiped out 3 days worth of gains, closing two gap ups. Extremely bearish by any standards. The following day was a weak technical rebound, and then a second bearish engulfing type of price action. On Friday, it gapped down, and made a lower low. Only respite is a late session recovery to close the day as a very interesting candlestick known as the Dragonfly Doji . This doji represents a likely bounce, and is a pre-cursor to a possible bottom, or at least a consolidation. The MACD is starting to show a bullish divergence, and it is starting to appear that a bottom may be forming. But till then, the MACD (lagging as it is) is suggesting that there is more downside or a consolidation at best. Hence, we can draw a critical support line ( the thick yellow line) where price action should remain, and close above for a bullish or consolidation range; otherwise, a breakdown to the previous downside targets is more likely. Without doubt, the daily chart appears to be more bearish than bullish, but the weekly chart has much more than meets the eye. Over the last three weeks, the NQ1! NASDAQ futures weekly candle range is clearly increasing, and appears erratic with a down up down pattern. Zooming out, the symmetrical pattern projection suggest that the NASDAQ is due for a further slide down to below 10K. The technical indicators are divergent in the sense that the MACD is bearish, and yet the shorter term RPM is suggesting some bullishness. How now brown cow? Perhaps if we also take the candlestick patterns to the next level, we might get a clearer hint. The three recent weekly candles circled represent a group of three candlesticks called a Stick Sandwich . In this set of candlestick pattern, regardless of how it looks (bearish) it is typically a bullish reversal pattern at the bottom of a downtrend. Now, to take the bullish scenario, it is nearing the end of a pattern, and the downtrend has been going on for a bit (since Nov 2021 high); so if this is a bullish reversal, then it might be a higher low on the weekly chart. In order for this to pan out, it needs to recover quite strongly over the next couple of weeks, and we can set the resistance at about 13K (thick green line). Overall, this gives us a rather large range from 11,900 to 12,900, and time is needed to see what/where the market decides. Non-technical factors adding to volatility include FOMC announcement on 21 September. Am not an expert about that, but all I can comment is that volatility both ways is a given. Hence, the range guidance. Still, keep in mind the initial and base projection down to 9500, it is not invalidated yet. IMHPO, the I think the bears have a 70/30 edge; am just ready to be nimble (particularly in mindset, perception and timeframe), as the charts are telling. I really hope you enjoyed and appreciate my rather unique analysis. Admittedly, there are parts not mentioned, but do contribute to the overall situational critical analysis. I do not mention as I am not an expert (yet) in those areas although some factors are considered in the overall analysis. More importantly, there are links for further background reading, so do click on them and enjoy the read. Looking forward to your comments... Stay safe & well, be nimble. Have a great week ahead!
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by Auguraltrader