NASDAQ about ready to breakoutAn interesting week went by, one with ups and downs and all around. The week ended with a long lower tail in the weekly candlestick. This we know, indicates bullishness. The daily chart shows how this came about, with a doji on Wednesday, and then a higher low retest followed by a nice uptick on Friday. These moves bounced off a support level, as well as clock in a second higher low (after technical bounce was expected previously). The weekly technical indicators crossed up recently, and the daily technical indicators show mild bullish build in the MACD, and less so in the RPM.
Taken together, it appears that a bullish break out is imminent for the coming week. If this happens, then we are looking at a higher probability for July to close higher at about 13,500.
Watch the next few days, it should show hand...
Techstocks
AMAZON Generational Bottom and buy opportunityAmazon (AMZN) has been trading within the MA300 (red trend-line) and MA200 (orange trend-line) on the 1W time-frame for more than 2 months. In multi-year terms, this is the equivalent of a bottom formation within the Bullish Channel that started after the bottom of the Dotcom crash in September 2001.
More specifically, the 1W MA300 hasn't been touched since January 2009 (bottom of the housing crisis) and the last time a (Higher) Low was formed within the 0.236 - 0.382 Fibonacci retracement levels (Fib Channel applied on the pattern) was within October 2014 - January 2015.
With the 1W RSI rebounding after breaking inside its multi-decade Buy Zone (has done so only another 3 times in 21 years) and the 1W LMACD inevitably about to make a Bullish Cross, this seems like a golden multi-year buy opportunity for Amazon. The Higher High target has been the 0.786 Fibonacci level since late 2018.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community!
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MICROSOFT Targeting $285 short-termMicrosoft (MSFT) is about to hit the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the 3rd time since June 27. A new break should be a confirmation of that being the new Lower High rebound. The previous targeted the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, this is now over the Channel Down a little above 285.00.
We believe this might be the start to an even bigger and more sustainable rise as certain long-term indicators have been aligned on Support levels:
* First, the RSI on the 1W time-frame is on a Bullish Divergence, being on Higher Lows while the price action was on Lower Lows.
* Second, the 1W MACD inevitably will form a Bullish Cross, the first since October 27 2021.
* Third, the 1M MA30 (yellow trend-line) supported the previous Low, right on the Higher Lows trend-line that started back in September 18 2020.
As mentioned the 285.00 is just below the 0.618 Fib, where the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) might be by the time it tests it, for the ultimate Resistance test.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community!
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AAPLE holding the 1D MA50, targeting 158 short-term.Apple (AAPL) had a very strong 1D green candle yesterday, rebounding off the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which has been the Resistance since April 21, turning it into the Support. The break-out took place after the RSI on the 1W time-frame broke above its MA line on the widest margin since January 04. With the 1W MACD about to make the first Bullish Cross since November 18 2021, this could be the long-term buy signal that the market has been waiting for, for a sustainable recovery.
The technical short-term target is the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) at around 158.00. The Fibonacci retracement levels can provide the next targets and pull-back/ buy levels. Overall the stock has the potential to reach its All Time High level before the end of the year.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community!
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Datatec at an area of valueJSE:DTC reached a 52-week high today, it also broke above a resistance level. If you zoom into the monthly time frame you'll see that it's near a potential resistance as well, old resistance level. I'm bullish on JSE:DTC on D/W time frames, the resistance level could be an issue but it's an old level.
Nasdaq-100 May Have Signs of a Bullish TurnA painful half is finished for the Nasdaq-100. Now there could be signs of a turn.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the 11,069 level. NDX peaked in that area in July 2020 and bounced there 3-1/2 months later. The index returned to hold the same support in mid-June 2022.
Second, notice how prices held about 2.6 percent above that low in the past week. Could it be a higher low , after six miserable months of lower lows ? Some technicians may view that as a potential sign of the bearish trend fading.
Third, NDX probed below Friday’s low yesterday before rallying back above its high. That kind of outside candle is a potential bullish reversal pattern.
Next, this chart includes two of our custom scripts: Distance from MA and MA streak . Both are plotted using the 10-day simple moving average (SMA).
The line chart shows how last month’s low was the lowest versus the 10-day SMA since the nadir of the coronavirus crash in March 2020.
The histogram illustrates how the 10-day SMA has frequently shifted direction since that oversold condition. It could be another sign of the trend running its course and losing cohesion.
Earnings season is around the corner, bond yields are slipping and commodities are falling. Those macro changes could also be potentially favorable for the Nasdaq -- especially considering the pain caused by inflation earlier this year.
TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more.
Important Information
TradeStation Securities, Inc., TradeStation Crypto, Inc., and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., all operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. You Can Trade, Inc. is also a wholly owned subsidiary of TradeStation Group, Inc., operating under its own brand and trademarks. TradeStation Crypto, Inc. offers to self-directed investors and traders cryptocurrency brokerage services. It is neither licensed with the SEC or the CFTC nor is it a Member of NFA. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products, and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Please click here for further important information explaining what this means.
This content is for informational and educational purposes only. This is not a recommendation regarding any investment or investment strategy. Any opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of TradeStation or any of its affiliates.
Investing involves risks. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options, futures, or digital assets); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Before trading any asset class, first read the relevant risk disclosure statements on the Important Documents page, found here: www.tradestation.com .
NASDAQ - Not yetAs outlined in the S&P500 weekly analysis. the technical bounce appears delayed. At the least, it looks like a higher low is being made, and would take another week or two before a higher high is achieved.
In light of these, the projection and targets have been adjusted to the end of July.
NASDAQ technical bounce as expectedPreviously, with a hit on target, a technical bounce was expected, and the end of last week... it happened!
The NASDAQ weekly is leading the charge with an overwhelming bullish candle for the week. MACD histograms are thinning out and weekly MACD are about to cross over.
Using the simple arrows, projections bring the NASDAQ to 13,600 where it should meet the weekly 55EMA.
The daily chart shows a clear break out to the HULL moving average, and has MACD crossed over already. The week ended with a bullish marubozu.
Bullish clearly...
Descending Channel Breakout for ADN?!?It appears as though ADN has broken flush to the upside of a descending channel which is drawn as two parallel declining lines drawn green on the chart, notice the rejection nearly exactly at the 200DMA.
On the KST there's a bullish cross where I've placed the green finger. More often than not when the KST gets this over-extended there's a sell-off immediately afterward with the rare exception of a continuation of s parabolic breakout on overwhelmingly bullish news.
A retrace to $1.40 is likely to re-test and build support on top of old resistance.
Or we're going to see a re-test of the 200DMA and a blue sky breakout.
Price target & trading range between $9.00 to $0.60c between now and the end of the year.
NASDAQ hit interim downside target, now what?As previously projected, the NASDAQ pushed further down in the last week, and with expected momentum, to hit the target in good time.
The daily chart shows the weekly action much clearer as the immediate resistance at 11725 failed and a quick drop ensued. The week did not follow through to end in downward momentum but instead clocked a small bullish harami. While unclear now, a technical bounce might be in the cards in the following week, and should show if it is happening by about mid-week.
Nasdaq: Bear is In-ChargeA typical characteristic of a bull market as seen is its significant highs are higher and its lows are higher.
However, the market has confirmed moving into bear when the market broke below the major uptrend on the 3rd week of 2022.
Now we could see the Bear is in-charge. And a typical characteristic of a bear market as seen is its significant highs are lower and its lows are lower.
Before 2022, my strategy was to buy on dips. However, starting this year when the major uptrend line was broken below, my focus now is to sell into strength when opportunity arises. Of course fundamentals also play a big part when Jerome Powell mentioned in December 2021 that U.S. inflation is "not transitory". Then we all know the Fed was preparing the environment for more interest rate hikes in 2022 and maybe beyond.
When things change, our strategy changes.
NASDAQ really fizzles?Two weeks ago, the NASDAQ jumped after bouncing off a support level and tested the 13K resistance... which appeared to have failed, given the Dark Cloud Cover candlestick ending to the week. The daily technicals do not yet tell of a down slope slip, but it should be following through. And if it does, then we have this Down Friday Down Monday thingy... means more downside to come.
The Weekly chart ended with a a candlestick that seem to stall the previous bullish candle. The weekly technicals are slightly bullish divergent.
Taken together, appears that we can expect some downside risk to the last low, probably see a higher low within the week, if at all.
The range is going to be a little wider than usual, until this consolidates out nicely and a new trend starts. So, let's see.
Marvell Technology appears to have set a bull trapBased on historical movement, the peak could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending bottom should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated SELL on May 27, 2022 with a closing price of 59.8.
If this instance is successful, that means the stock should decline to at least 59.55 which is the top of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock decline 1.956% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the top of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock decline 3.897% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock decline 6.432% from the signal closing price which is the bottom of the smaller green box. The maximum decline on record would see a move to the bottom of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well.
The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The trough of the decline can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max decline occurs within the limit of study at 50 trading bars after the signal. A 0.4% decline must occur over the next 50 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 8 trading bars; half occur within 22 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 43 trading bars.
The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement.
As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
NASDAQ is not yet done with downward momentumThe dead cat bounce only lasted a couple of days, and it gave way soon and very quickly yesterday (pre-market). This breakdown was with decent downside momentum, and was also off the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, as observed in the 4H intraday chart above.
By projecting forward using simple geometric extensions combined with Fibs, 10,800 is the next downside target (yellow arrows), which could happen swiftly or drag another week. Honestly, do not know which is worse.
In another view, we see a range from 12565 to 11700, which the latter would attempt to provide some support (aqua arrows). Breaking down and out of this range, similarly points to circa 10,800, but in a more swift take down.
Daily technicals employed here support the downside momentum and targets.
So, look for support early-mid next week, if we get a new intraday low, yeah?
USTECH100 Nasdaq : The bigger picture disaster of tech :( 22.4 Simplicity is king.
1) Rising wedge 2019 - 2022 - Jan 2022 breakout down.
2) Nasdaq is falling from a crazy over-priced high, big potential downside.
3) Descending trend-line of lower highs since breakout confirm down-trend.
4) Current trading range of the down-trend is 14,600 - 12,800
5) Break below 12,800 - 11,900 to 10,700 will very likely follow.
6) A break above 14,600 with a weekly close will be the end of the down-trend technically.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
If you liked my idea, would be great if you could like and follow :D
My target is to benefit as many traders as I can with practical knowledge which would give you confidence.
Let me know if you have any questions or if there's anything more I can do to help!
Thank you <3
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NASDAQ in technical rebound - a bull trap?The NASDAQ (and other equities indexes) closed the week on a strong rebound, having reached a lower support (11700). The resulting weekly candlestick is one with a long lower tail, suggesting a possible test to regain the 13K level.
The daily chart closed the highest for the week, and similarly projects a somewhat cautious bullish outlook for the incoming week. I would be wary for sudden turnarounds, especially near the resistance levels, or when prices are near the declining 55EMA.
The weekly technicals are still intact for the downside target of 11K.
Be wary!
AAPL broke wma50/channel w/ LHLL; may retest 138-135 zone + TLAAPL is the last big tech to break, pulling down QQQ & SPY with it.
In this weekly chart, it just broke the green WMA50 line & also the upchannel. It seems to be making a M-pattern already with a lower high & a lower low thus confirming the downtrend. Despite a big relief rally bouncing from 140 zone last Friday, I think AAPL may still go down to my green 138-135 support zone. Any big relief rally will still be rejected by my yellow 155 Alert zone.
In the next few weeks, AAPL may want to retest the violet TL since 2017. Reaching either 135 or 120 will end the ABC correction & start a true rally.
AAPL at the 140 to 120 zone is already an attractive place to accumulate.
Pls note that 135 is a 0.618 retracement & 120 is a 0.786 Fib.
Not trading advice
Has the Nasdaq reached a bottom?The Nasdaq is trading at values similar to those of the fall of 2020, eroding all the gains accumulated during 2021.
It has fallen approximately 30% from the peak of November of last year, a fall that, when compared to that of February-March 2020, is practically of the same magnitude. Unlike that time, this time the price has still not touched the 200-day moving average, although it came very close to doing so. It seems as if a support was reached last Thursday May 12 to initiate a reversal that pushes prices higher.
During this century, the only times this index fell more than 30% were during the 2001 dot com bubble and the 2008 housing crisis, with falls of 80 and 50 percent, respectively. In other words, falls of this magnitude are only justified in the face of crises, bubbles or similar events. If another similar catalyst is not foreseen in the short to medium term, then I don't see why the price would continue to sink further. It may be a good opportunity to return to the technology sector now that many stocks are trading at pre-pandemic prices.
Tech stocks are oversoldVarious tech stocks that boomed during 2020 began to fall at different speeds starting in 2021, with February 8 being the turning point for most. A gradual recovery continued before reaching another peak in mid-July, at which point the crash was continuous and widespread. As of today May 15, 2022, the profits obtained since 2020 have evaporated for this type of stocks. A bottleneck is evident to which they have converged, from my perspective, a change in trend is foreseeable, with Thursday May 12 being the date on which they reached the bottom.
At current prices it could be a great opportunity to go long in this sector.
NASDAQ gave way into MayAnother down week in the NASDAQ, as expected. PReviousl expectations were generall in line, although how things panned out were more volatile... bearish for NASDAQ IMHO.
The weekly chart looks even worse now than previously, and it is not about breaking below 13K conclusively. It did a swooping technical rebound, only to be a dead cat bounce, where the next session wiped out the week's worth of effort to recover 13K. This resulted in a long upper tailed candle; in both charts showing the bearish momentum and that it is more likely to continue.
The 12600 light support held up for now, and given the candlestick patterns and technicals, further downside should be expected, albeit volatile attempts to test 13K.
Previously marked out 11700 for next support once 12600 gives way; downside target now projected (by Fibonacci projections) at 11,100, about early to mid-June 2022.
It is very possible to see a quick dip in the coming week to 11,700, then a sizeable rebound, only to push down yet again.
Let's see... tread carefully.
Bearish is as it bearish does.
AAPL HHHL b/w wma 20 & 50; last tech to fall? ; 3 crucial zonesDid AAPL just made a higher low? It is the only major tech stock that is preventing the index from falling. Will it hold the blue upchannel or be the last one to break down after this FED BULLTRAP?
AAPL is now trading between WMA 20 & the green WMA 50 in this weekly chart. Monitor carefully these 3 impt zones:
1) Yellow Alert Zone: If AAPL holds 155 the WMA 50 & bounces up to break above WMA20 & all the VWAP
resistances, The higher high higher low will be confirmed & the blue uptrend channel will continue.
(Just maybe ABC wave 4 was completed & wave 5 has started?)
2) Red Warning Zone: If AAPL fails 155 the green WMA 50, it has greater chance of breaking below the
upchannel & fall into my 150 to145 Warning Zone.
3) Green BUY ZONE: If AAPL fails both 155 & 145, it will go down to retest 138. This will fall under my
BUY ZONE between 138 to 135 levels.
Note also that in case of a prolonged downturn & consolidation, AAPL may retest the red uptrend line from 2017.
Note that 138 is also the top of a previous wave 1 & the OCT 2021 bottom. If this plays out, the big revised ABC corrective wave will end in a double bottom near 138 & THEN THE FINAL WAVE 5 SHALL START.
Note that the 2022 ABC wave 4 consolidation is a running flat.
Not trading advice. Hope this analysis may help someone make porifit or simply prevent big losses.
Pls like, follow & share for me to make more analysis.