Trading Idea - #HelloFresh#HelloFresh - my BUY
ENTRY: 41.00 EUR
TARGET: 52.00 EUR (+27% profit)
STOP: 32.90 EUR
HelloFresh has forecast revenue growth of 20 to 26 percent in 2022.
Last week, there was a reversal at the important support line, triggered by recent insider buying.
Nevertheless, the stock remains under pressure, so only a short-term recovery can be targeted.
The support at EUR 34.00 should remain a good basis for a trend reversal for the next few weeks.
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EUR/USD:FUNDAMENTALS NEWS + TECHNICAL ANALYSIS | SHORT 🔔EUR/USD has preserved its recovery momentum after Fed's policy announcements.
Euro could continue to push higher in case 1.1050 turns into support.
A negative shift in risk mood could limit the pair's upside.
EUR/USD has regained its traction after dipping below 1.1000 with the immediate reaction to the US Federal Reserve's policy announcements. The pair consolidates Wednesday's gains near 1.1050 early Thursday and it looks to extend its rebound toward 1.1100 in case this level turns into support.
As expected, the Fed hiked its policy rate by 25 basis points and the updated Summary of Economic projections showed that policymakers expect to raise the rate six more times by the end of the year. Despite the hawkish policy outlook, FOMC Chairman Jerome Powell reassured markets that they would tame inflation without hurting the economic activity and allowed risk flows to dominate the markets.
Reflecting the negative impact of Powell's comments on the greenback, the US Dollar Index fell 0.6% on Wednesday.
Nevertheless, the Fed is clearly planning to tighten the policy in a much more aggressive way than the European Central Bank (ECB) does and the policy divergence should continue to favour the dollar over the euro moving forward. Hence, it's too early to say whether EUR/USD could go into a steady uptrend in the near term.
Meanwhile, markets remain on edge despite Russia's optimistic rhetoric about a peace agreement with Ukraine.
Russia reportedly thinks that they made significant progress toward a ceasefire but Ukrainian officials disagree with this view. In the opinion of France's Foreign Minister Jean Yves Le Drian, Russia is only "pretending to negotiate with Ukraine."
US stock index futures are posting small losses in the early European session and a negative tilt in the risk mood could make it difficult for EUR/USD to stretch higher.
Later in the session, weekly Initial Jobless Claims and February Industrial Production data will be featured in the US economic docket but the risk perception is likely to impact the pair's action in the remainder of the day.
Trading Idea - #Inditex#Inditex - Conviction BUY (long-term)
ENTRY: 21.00 EUR
TARGET: 29.50 EUR (+40%)
STOP: 17.60 EUR
Inditex is one of the largest textile companies in the world, based in Arteixo / Galicia (Spain). Inditex specializes in the design, manufacture and distribution of clothing and accessories for men, women and children. Zara is the best-known brand of the group, which also includes Pull&Bear and Bershka.
Inditex saw slower sales growth in the final quarter due to new Covid restrictions, but sees rising earnings and a strong business recovery at the start of the new fiscal year. Last year, the Spanish fashion chain with brands such as Zara, Massimo Dutti and Bershka significantly increased sales, net profit almost tripled and margins improved significantly.
From a technical analysis perspective, we are at a support level. All signs indicate a bounce and thus a recovery of the chart.
According to the current valuation, the fair price (if there is such a thing :-) ) of the share is between EUR 29 and 30.
Estimated financial data (EUR)
YEAR 2022
Sales 2022 = 27,931 million
Net income 2022 = 3 646 million
Net liquidity 2022 = 8 446 million
P/E ratio 2022 = 18.0x
Dividend yield 2022 = 4.82
YEAR 2023
Sales 2023 = 28 855 mn
Net income 2023 = 3,626 million
Net liquidity 2023 = 10 468 million
P/E ratio 2023 = 18.1x
Dividend yield 2023 = 5.23
USD/CAD:FUNDAMENTAL INFOs + TECHNICAL PATTERN ANALYSIS|MUST READUSD/CAD rebounds from two-week low, inches back closer to mid-1.2600s amid stronger USD
USD/CAD reversed an intraday dip to sub-1.2600 levels, or over a two-week low.
Resurgent USD demand turned out to be a key factor that extended some support.
Steady oil prices, upbeat Canadian data underpinned the loonie and capped gains.
The USD/CAD pair built on its steady intraday recovery move from over a two-week low and climbed to a fresh daily top, around the 1.2635-1.2640 region during the early North American session.
A combination of factors assisted the USD/CAD pair to attract some buying on the last day of the week and reverse the early dip to sub-1.2600 levels. A goodish pickup in demand for the US dollar acted as a tailwind for spot prices. Apart from this, an intraday pullback in crude oil prices undermined the commodity-linked loonie and provided modest lift to the major.
Investors turned caution amid the lack of progress in the Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations. In fact, Ukrainian Presidential aide Ihor Zhovkva said that talks with Russia are progressing very slowly. Russia accused Ukraine of slowing down peace talks and said that it wants to go at a faster pace, though the Ukraine delegation has not shown readiness to speed talks.
This, in turn, tempered investors' appetite for perceived riskier assets ahead of a meeting between US President Joe Biden and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping. The market nervousness was evident from a softer tone around the equity markets, which drove some haven flows towards the greenback. Apart from this, the Fed's hawkish outlook further underpinned the buck.
Apart from the anti-risk flow, concerns about reduced fuel demand - amid the resurgent of COVID-19 cases in China, Europe and New Zealand - weighed on crude oil prices. That said, the intraday downtick in the black liquid remained limited. This, along with better-than-expected Canadian macro data, benefitted the domestic currency and capped the USD/CAD pair.
According to the data released by Statistics Canada, the headline Retail Sales rose at a pace of 3.2% MoM in January as against the consensus estimate for a growth of 2.4%. This comes on the back of hotter-than-expected Canadian consumer inflation figures, which should further add pressure on the Bank of Canada to accelerate rate hikes.
The fundamental backdrop warrants some caution before confirming that the USD/CAD pair has bottomed out or positioning for any meaningful appreciating move. That said, bearish traders are likely to wait for sustained break below the 200-day SMA. Some follow-through selling below the monthly low, around the 1.2585 region, will set the stage for additional losses.
GOLD:FUNDAMENTAL INFOS+TECHNICAL ANALYSIS | WE ARE LONG √Modest USD strength prompted fresh selling around gold on the last day of the week.
The Fed’s hawkish outlook was seen as a key factor that assisted the USD to gain traction.
A generally weaker risk tone extended some support to the safe-haven precious metal.
Gold witnessed some selling during the Asian session on Friday and for now, seems to have stalled its recent goodish rebound from sub-$1,900 levels, or the monthly low touched earlier this week. The downtick was sponsored by modest US dollar strength, which tends to undermine demand for the dollar-denominated commodity. The greenback lost traction after the Fed on Wednesday hiked its target fund rate by 25 bps and disappointed some investors expecting a more aggressive increase in borrowing costs. That said, the start of the policy tightening cycle, along with the Fed's hawkish outlook, helped limit deeper losses for the buck.
In fact, the so-called dot plot indicated that the Fed could raise rates at all the six remaining meetings in 2022 to combat stubbornly high inflation. Adding to this, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that the US central bank could start shrinking its near $9 trillion balance sheet as soon as the next meeting in May. Powell further emphasised that the economy was strong enough to withstand tighter monetary policy and financial conditions. This, in turn, allowed the yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond to hold steady near its highest point since 2019, which was seen as another factor that acted as a headwind for the non-yielding gold.
The downside, however, remains cushioned, at least for the time being, amid worries about the lack of progress in the Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations. This kept a lid on the recent optimistic move in the markets, instead triggered a fresh leg down in the equity markets and extended some support to the safe-haven XAU/USD. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for some follow-through selling before traders start positioning for the resumption of the recent sharp pullback from the $2,070 area, or the highest level since August 2020. Nevertheless, gold, for now, seems to have snapped two days of the winning streak and remains on track to record its first down week in three.
In the absence of any major market-moving economic releases, the USD price dynamics will continue to play a key role in influencing gold prices. Apart from this, traders will take cues from fresh developments surrounding the Russia-Ukraine saga. The incoming geopolitical headlines, along with a meeting between US President Joe Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping would drive the broader market risk sentiment. This, in turn, should provide some impetus to the precious metal and allow traders to grab some short-term opportunities on the last day of the week.
EUR/USD:FUNDAMENTAL INFOs + TECHNICAL ANALYSIS | SHORT SETUP 🔔EUR/USD wanes back under 1.1100 but still holds on to solid post-Fed policy announcement gains
EUR/USD has been waning from earlier session highs in recent trade and is now back below the 1.1100 level.
Since Wednesday’s Fed hawkish policy announcement, EUR/USD has gained about 1.0%, flummoxing some analysts.
Markets seem to currently be being driven by “hopes” for a Russo-Ukraine peace deal, meaning geopolitics remains a key theme.
EUR/USD has been waning in recent trade and recently fell back under the 1.1100 level, meaning that the pair has, for now, failed to break above its 21-Day Moving Average at 1.1108. Nonetheless, the pair is still trading with gains of about 0.6% on the day, as the dollar succumbs to broad weakness despite strong US weekly jobless claims numbers and a better-than-expected Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey released earlier in the session.
Since Wednesday’s Fed policy announcement EUR/USD has gained about 1.0%, despite the fact that the Fed signaled its intention to hike interest rates at all of its remaining rate decisions this year, which was more hawkish than market participants had been expecting. Fed Chair Jerome Powell even warned that the pace of rate increases might be accelerated if deemed necessary and that the Fed could decide to take interest rates well beyond the so-called “neutral” level (in the 2.0-2.5% area) if inflation fails to abate as expected.
Despite all this hawkishness, the buck has failed to benefit, flummoxing some analysts. Clearly, markets are more focused right now on geopolitics and the apparent hope that Russia and Ukraine might reach some sort of peace deal in the near future. Reporting on this front over the last few days has been mixed and conflicting, making it difficult to assign a probability to a peace deal being reached.
But traders have nonetheless used “hope” as an excuse to pair US dollar longs, just as they have used this as an excuse to bid up equities in recent sessions. Whether this momentum can last is the big question and markets are very much expected to remain choppy and headline-driven with a focus on geopolitical headlines in the coming weeks.
Ultimately, while a peace deal might offer EUR/USD some near-term respite, the theme of West/Russia economic decoupling is not going anywhere. A ceasefire in Ukraine doesn’t mean the massive hit to the Eurozone economy as a result of Western sanctions on Russia for its invasion will be magically and immediately negated. 1.1100 is actually a key level of support turned resistance for EUR/USD, and its failure on Thursday to hold above this level might herald some near-term profit taking that could see the pair move back towards 1.10.
EUR/USD:FUNDAMENTAL NEWS+TECHNICAL ANALYSIS | MUST READ | SHORTEUR/USD: At risk of falling to 2020 lows at 1.0635/40 despite shift in EU and ECB coordination – Westpac
European Central Bank's (ECB) hawkish taper twist suggests that it will act on a “whatever it takes” basis to contain inflation and so EUR may find sound support if the Ukraine conflict is contained. However, a spike towards 2020’s 1.0635/40 low cannot be ruled out, economists at Westpac report.
The shift in EU and ECB coordination is likely to provide EUR support
“ECB President Lagarde stated that greater ‘optionality’, or flexibility, was needed to deal with rising risks (of stagflation). This clear hawkish tilt reflects an equally dramatic, if less overt, shift in EU and Eurozone finance ministers. They are now open to coordinated regional fiscal support to support households deal with surging energy prices, accelerate energy transition, lift security spending and support regional economies. This ‘whatever it takes’ approach from EU/Eurozone if conflict is contained, may have put a floor under the vulnerable EUR.”
“Even if flash PMI and IFO data reflect the ZEW surveys, the shift in EU and ECB coordination is likely to provide EUR support.”
“EUR/USD remains vulnerable to a retest of 1.08 and a spike towards the 2020’s 1.0635/40 low cannot be ruled out, but risks appear more balanced and a close above 1.11 could establish a firmer range for EUR/USD.”
AUD/CAD: RETEST SMA AND STRONG LEVEL | PRICE FALL Hello Everyone, I hope you'll Appreciate our Price action Analysis !
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EUR/USD:DWONTREND | SHORT SETUP TRIGGER.Hello Everyone, I hope you'll Appreciate our Price action Analysis !
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EUR/USD – US Dollar Strength Remains the Prime Driver | SHORT Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell is expected to announce the first in a series of 0.25% interest rate hikes at tomorrow’s FOMC meeting. According to market thinking, this will be the first of seven quarter-point hikes this year with four more expected in 2023. These expectations have boosted the value of the US dollar over the last few weeks and traders will be looking, and listening, to chair Powell’s post-decision statement to see if he has turned further hawkish in the face of rampant inflation. US headline inflation touched 7.9% last week, a fresh 40-year high.
EUR/USD is trying to edge higher but the move looks limited and vulnerable to another leg lower. The pair will continue to be driven by the US dollar, while the euro will remain under constant pressure as the ECB wrestles with stagnating growth and rampant inflation. A hawkish outtake from chair Powell tomorrow will test the pair’s resolve and leave 1.0900 vulnerable. Below here the recent 1.0806 print guards a cluster of prior lows on either side of 1.0770.
GBP/USD Forecast: Technicals reveal lack of recovery momentum GBP/USD has struggled to extend rebound beyond 1.3050.
Risk-averse market environment caps the pair's upside on Tuesday.
Sellers could take action in case pound drops below 1.3000.
GBP/USD has staged a rebound after having tested 1.3000 support but has struggled to preserve its bullish momentum. The pair clings to modest daily gains below 1.3050 in the early European session but the negative shift witnessed in market mood is making it difficult for the British pound to continue to gather strength against the greenback.
Late Monday, the Ukrainian presidential adviser said that they were hoping to reach a peace deal with Russia by May at the latest. Although this development revived hopes for a de-escalation of the conflict, the adviser noted early Tuesday that there would either be an agreement or Russia would "go on the offensive."
Additionally, newly imposed lockdowns in China due to the surging number of coronavirus cases revived fears over supply chain bottlenecks, further weighing on the market mood. Reflecting the risk-averse atmosphere, the UK's FTSE 100 Index is losing more than 1% on Tuesday and the S&P Futures are down 0.5%.
On the flip side, the greenback stays on the back foot amid falling US Treasury bond yields and helps GBP/USD stay afloat in positive territory.
Earlier in the day, the data from the UK showed that ILO Unemployment Rate declined to 3.9% in three months to January from 4.1% but this print failed to trigger a noticeable market reaction.
The US economic docket will feature February Producer Price Index (PPI) on Tuesday. Nevertheless, the risk perception is likely to continue to impact the pair's action in the near term.
GOLD: UPDATE | DOWNTREND | PRICE WILL FALL MORE TO 61.8% FIBOHello Everyone, I hope you'll Appreciate our Price action Analysis !
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AUD/CHF:DOUBLE TOP PATTERN | PRICE MAY FALL !Hello Everyone, I hope you'll Appreciate our Price action Analysis !
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GBP/JPY:HARMONIC TRADING | REVERSAL COMING SOON | SHORTHello Everyone, I hope you'll Appreciate our Price action Analysis !
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NZD/USD:PRICE ACTION | PRICE MAY FALL | SHORT PREDICTIONHello Everyone, I hope you'll Appreciate our Price action Analysis !
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GBP/AUD : DOWNTREND | PRICE IS SIDEWAYS AREA | FALL SETUPHello Everyone, I hope you'll Appreciate our Price action Analysis !
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EUR/USD: DOWNTREND | PRICE ACTION | SHORT SETUP 🔔Hello Everyone, I hope you'll Appreciate our Price action Analysis !
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GOLD: UPDATE FORECAST SHORT | PRICE IS FALL LIKE PREDICTED...Hello Everyone, I hope you'll Appreciate our Price action Analysis !
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GOLD: FUNDAMENTAL INFOs + TECHNICAL ANALYSIS | SHORT SETUP 🔔Gold price is deep in the red amid risk-on mood, rallying US Treasury yields.
Russia-Ukraine updates will continue to dictate risk sentiment, dollar trades.
Gold Price appears vulnerable below $1,994, focus on yields, Ukraine updates.
Gold price is facing a double whammy from an improved market mood on hopes for diplomacy on the Ukraine crisis. While the expected 25 bps Fed rate hike this week is keeping the US Treasury yields on a stronger footing, The risk-on flows seem to be weighing down the US dollar, which cushions the downside in gold price. Looking ahead, the Russia-Ukraine war-related updates and risk sentiment will lead the way, in absence of first-tier economic data. Also, the US-Sino high-level talks to discuss Ukraine will be also closely followed.
GBP/USD:FUNDAMENTAL INFOS + TECHNICAL ANALYSIS | SHORT VIEWGBP/USD Forecast: Bears could pause on hopes for diplomacy in Ukraine, ahead of BoE/FOMC
GBP/USD dropped to a fresh 16-month low during the Asian session on the first day of a new week.
The Russia-Ukraine war underpinned the safe-haven USD and exerted some downward pressure.
Slightly oversold conditions warrant some caution for bears ahead of the BoE and FOMC meetings.
The GBP/USD pair prolonged its recent bearish trajectory and kicked off the new week on a downbeat note. This marked the third successive day of a negative move - also the seventh in the previous eight - and dragged spot prices to 1.3000 neighbourhood, or the lowest level since November 2020 during the Asian session. The Russia-Ukraine conflict, so far, has shown no signs of easing. In fact, a barrage of Russian missiles hit a large Ukrainian base near the border with NATO member Poland on Sunday. This continued underpinning the US dollar's status as the global reserve currency and was seen as a key factor that exerted downward pressure on the major.
The greenback also drew support from an extension of a strong move up in the US Treasury bond yields. The recent monster gains in commodity prices following Russia's invasion of Ukraine has been fueling concerns about a major inflationary shock. This, in turn, reinforced bets for an imminent start of the policy tightening cycle in March and acted as a tailwind for the US bond yields. Hence, the market focus now shifts to the upcoming two-day FOMC monetary policy meeting, starting this Tuesday, which will play a key role in influencing the near-term USD price dynamics. In the meantime, signs of stability in the financial markets might cap gains for the buck.
Russia and Ukraine gave their most upbeat assessments after weekend negotiations. In fact, Ukrainian negotiator Mykhailo Podolyak said that Russia is already beginning to talk constructively and that we will achieve some results in a matter of days. Moreover, a Russian delegate to the talks, Leonid Slutsky noted that they had made significant progress and it was possible the delegations could soon reach draft agreements. The incoming positive headlines fueled the latest optimism, which was evident from a generally positive tone around the equity markets and dented demand for traditional safe-haven assets. This, however, did little to lend any support to the pair.
Even expectations that the Bank of England will hike interest rates at its meeting later this week failed to impress bullish traders or ease the bearish pressure surrounding the major. The market bets were reaffirmed by Friday's mostly upbeat UK macro releases, showing that the economy bounced back sharply and expanded by 0.8% in January. Adding to this, the UK industrial output rose 0.7% MoM in January, driven by the 0.8% growth in manufacturing production. Furthermore, services sector output increased by 0.8% during the reported month as against a 0.5% fall recorded in December. This, in turn, suggest that the BoE rate hike is fully priced in the markets.
Nevertheless, traders might refrain from placing aggressive directional bets heading into the key central bank event risks. In the meantime, fresh developments surrounding the Russia-Ukraine saga will be looked upon for some meaningful trading opportunities amid absent relevant market-moving economic releases on Monday.
EUR/USD : FUNDAMENTAL NEWS + PRICE ACTION FORECAST | SHORT SETUPEUR/USD takes a respite at the edge of 1.08 the figure, traders are watching oil prices.
EUR/USD now depends on where the price of oil goes next.
The Fed and ECB divergence is priced in but the ECB will be a key event this week.
EUR/USD is down some 0.45% on the day but the euro is attempting to recover in an accumulation of the latest daily bearish sell-off. EUR/USD positioning inched higher in the week ending 1 March, despite mounting pressure on European currencies on the back of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. However, a long squeeze of those positions would be expected in the next report, underlying the potential longevity of weakness in the euro for the foreseeable future.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine and questions about Europe’s energy security will be a key theme for the European Central Bank this week as the war in Ukraine has made the economic outlook for the eurozone extremely uncertain. No changes are to be expected at the meeting, although some would have expected them a few weeks ago.
The economic implications for the eurozone due to the war will require the ECB to maintain maximum flexibility for its road to normalisation. There may be mention that should everything goes well, net asset purchases can still end in the third quarter. With that being said, there is no telling what the road ahead will be like in what is a very fluid situation. The divergence between the ECB and Federal Reserve is favouring the greenback which leaves 1.0800 vulnerable.
The week is absent of Fed speakers due to the media embargo ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting, but the market is fully priced for a 25 bp hike on March 16 as the start of the tightening cycle. ''Looking ahead, 150 bp of tightening is priced in over the next 12 months, followed by another 25 bp in the following 12 months that would see the Fed Funds rate peak near 1.75%,'' analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman said.
''We continue to believe that the terminal rate will have to be much higher than this, but the Ukraine crisis has pushed Fed tightening expectations lower. January consumer credit is the only US data report today and is expected at $24.5 bln vs. $18.9 bln in December.''
Euro traders are glued to the price of oil
Meanwhile, markets are fixated on the price of oil which is a driver for risk in the forex space and the euro has been suffering for it given the eurozone dependency on Russian oil, coal & gas. However, the EU has agreed to phase out dependency on Russian energy according to an EU draft statement from a summit. The Biden administration is also willing to move ahead with a ban on Russian oil imports into the United States even without the participation of allies in Europe. US oil is currently trading at $120bbls.
The consensus is that the higher prices pose less threat to the Us than it does to the Eurozone. While Russian crude represents only 3% of domestic energy imports, for Europe, Russia is a key provider. Russia provides 25% of the EU's crude and 40% of its natural gas.
Just a few moments before Ethereum sell-off. Guys, alert on Ethereum price! Price entered Critical zone, the movement can be insanely huge. If you like my graphics, please use Like button 💙💛
Guys, I have strong feeling of Deja Vu... Price of Ethereum at similar triangle to the Bitcoin 2020 sell-off case, the proof of the chart I've attached to the main graph, please compare it.
What kind of the move we can expect?
Possible move towards $2000 at first part , then move down to $1600 and final or semi-final to $1000 because traders and investors like round numbers. This might be not the bottom , but we going to see and I will try to make update on the way.
Stay safe
💙💛 Praying for Ukraine
GOLD:HEAD & SHOULDERS | SHORT SETUP ⚡️Hello Everyone, I hope you'll Appreciate our Price action Analysis !
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