EUR/USD:FUNDAMENTAL INFOs + TECHNICAL ANALYSIS | SHORT SETUP 🔔EUR/USD wanes back under 1.1100 but still holds on to solid post-Fed policy announcement gains
EUR/USD has been waning from earlier session highs in recent trade and is now back below the 1.1100 level.
Since Wednesday’s Fed hawkish policy announcement, EUR/USD has gained about 1.0%, flummoxing some analysts.
Markets seem to currently be being driven by “hopes” for a Russo-Ukraine peace deal, meaning geopolitics remains a key theme.
EUR/USD has been waning in recent trade and recently fell back under the 1.1100 level, meaning that the pair has, for now, failed to break above its 21-Day Moving Average at 1.1108. Nonetheless, the pair is still trading with gains of about 0.6% on the day, as the dollar succumbs to broad weakness despite strong US weekly jobless claims numbers and a better-than-expected Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey released earlier in the session.
Since Wednesday’s Fed policy announcement EUR/USD has gained about 1.0%, despite the fact that the Fed signaled its intention to hike interest rates at all of its remaining rate decisions this year, which was more hawkish than market participants had been expecting. Fed Chair Jerome Powell even warned that the pace of rate increases might be accelerated if deemed necessary and that the Fed could decide to take interest rates well beyond the so-called “neutral” level (in the 2.0-2.5% area) if inflation fails to abate as expected.
Despite all this hawkishness, the buck has failed to benefit, flummoxing some analysts. Clearly, markets are more focused right now on geopolitics and the apparent hope that Russia and Ukraine might reach some sort of peace deal in the near future. Reporting on this front over the last few days has been mixed and conflicting, making it difficult to assign a probability to a peace deal being reached.
But traders have nonetheless used “hope” as an excuse to pair US dollar longs, just as they have used this as an excuse to bid up equities in recent sessions. Whether this momentum can last is the big question and markets are very much expected to remain choppy and headline-driven with a focus on geopolitical headlines in the coming weeks.
Ultimately, while a peace deal might offer EUR/USD some near-term respite, the theme of West/Russia economic decoupling is not going anywhere. A ceasefire in Ukraine doesn’t mean the massive hit to the Eurozone economy as a result of Western sanctions on Russia for its invasion will be magically and immediately negated. 1.1100 is actually a key level of support turned resistance for EUR/USD, and its failure on Thursday to hold above this level might herald some near-term profit taking that could see the pair move back towards 1.10.
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EUR/USD:FUNDAMENTAL NEWS+TECHNICAL ANALYSIS | MUST READ | SHORTEUR/USD: At risk of falling to 2020 lows at 1.0635/40 despite shift in EU and ECB coordination – Westpac
European Central Bank's (ECB) hawkish taper twist suggests that it will act on a “whatever it takes” basis to contain inflation and so EUR may find sound support if the Ukraine conflict is contained. However, a spike towards 2020’s 1.0635/40 low cannot be ruled out, economists at Westpac report.
The shift in EU and ECB coordination is likely to provide EUR support
“ECB President Lagarde stated that greater ‘optionality’, or flexibility, was needed to deal with rising risks (of stagflation). This clear hawkish tilt reflects an equally dramatic, if less overt, shift in EU and Eurozone finance ministers. They are now open to coordinated regional fiscal support to support households deal with surging energy prices, accelerate energy transition, lift security spending and support regional economies. This ‘whatever it takes’ approach from EU/Eurozone if conflict is contained, may have put a floor under the vulnerable EUR.”
“Even if flash PMI and IFO data reflect the ZEW surveys, the shift in EU and ECB coordination is likely to provide EUR support.”
“EUR/USD remains vulnerable to a retest of 1.08 and a spike towards the 2020’s 1.0635/40 low cannot be ruled out, but risks appear more balanced and a close above 1.11 could establish a firmer range for EUR/USD.”
AUD/CAD: RETEST SMA AND STRONG LEVEL | PRICE FALL Hello Everyone, I hope you'll Appreciate our Price action Analysis !
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EUR/USD:DWONTREND | SHORT SETUP TRIGGER.Hello Everyone, I hope you'll Appreciate our Price action Analysis !
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EUR/USD – US Dollar Strength Remains the Prime Driver | SHORT Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell is expected to announce the first in a series of 0.25% interest rate hikes at tomorrow’s FOMC meeting. According to market thinking, this will be the first of seven quarter-point hikes this year with four more expected in 2023. These expectations have boosted the value of the US dollar over the last few weeks and traders will be looking, and listening, to chair Powell’s post-decision statement to see if he has turned further hawkish in the face of rampant inflation. US headline inflation touched 7.9% last week, a fresh 40-year high.
EUR/USD is trying to edge higher but the move looks limited and vulnerable to another leg lower. The pair will continue to be driven by the US dollar, while the euro will remain under constant pressure as the ECB wrestles with stagnating growth and rampant inflation. A hawkish outtake from chair Powell tomorrow will test the pair’s resolve and leave 1.0900 vulnerable. Below here the recent 1.0806 print guards a cluster of prior lows on either side of 1.0770.
GBP/USD Forecast: Technicals reveal lack of recovery momentum GBP/USD has struggled to extend rebound beyond 1.3050.
Risk-averse market environment caps the pair's upside on Tuesday.
Sellers could take action in case pound drops below 1.3000.
GBP/USD has staged a rebound after having tested 1.3000 support but has struggled to preserve its bullish momentum. The pair clings to modest daily gains below 1.3050 in the early European session but the negative shift witnessed in market mood is making it difficult for the British pound to continue to gather strength against the greenback.
Late Monday, the Ukrainian presidential adviser said that they were hoping to reach a peace deal with Russia by May at the latest. Although this development revived hopes for a de-escalation of the conflict, the adviser noted early Tuesday that there would either be an agreement or Russia would "go on the offensive."
Additionally, newly imposed lockdowns in China due to the surging number of coronavirus cases revived fears over supply chain bottlenecks, further weighing on the market mood. Reflecting the risk-averse atmosphere, the UK's FTSE 100 Index is losing more than 1% on Tuesday and the S&P Futures are down 0.5%.
On the flip side, the greenback stays on the back foot amid falling US Treasury bond yields and helps GBP/USD stay afloat in positive territory.
Earlier in the day, the data from the UK showed that ILO Unemployment Rate declined to 3.9% in three months to January from 4.1% but this print failed to trigger a noticeable market reaction.
The US economic docket will feature February Producer Price Index (PPI) on Tuesday. Nevertheless, the risk perception is likely to continue to impact the pair's action in the near term.
GOLD: UPDATE | DOWNTREND | PRICE WILL FALL MORE TO 61.8% FIBOHello Everyone, I hope you'll Appreciate our Price action Analysis !
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AUD/CHF:DOUBLE TOP PATTERN | PRICE MAY FALL !Hello Everyone, I hope you'll Appreciate our Price action Analysis !
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GBP/JPY:HARMONIC TRADING | REVERSAL COMING SOON | SHORTHello Everyone, I hope you'll Appreciate our Price action Analysis !
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NZD/USD:PRICE ACTION | PRICE MAY FALL | SHORT PREDICTIONHello Everyone, I hope you'll Appreciate our Price action Analysis !
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GBP/AUD : DOWNTREND | PRICE IS SIDEWAYS AREA | FALL SETUPHello Everyone, I hope you'll Appreciate our Price action Analysis !
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EUR/USD: DOWNTREND | PRICE ACTION | SHORT SETUP 🔔Hello Everyone, I hope you'll Appreciate our Price action Analysis !
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GOLD: UPDATE FORECAST SHORT | PRICE IS FALL LIKE PREDICTED...Hello Everyone, I hope you'll Appreciate our Price action Analysis !
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GOLD: FUNDAMENTAL INFOs + TECHNICAL ANALYSIS | SHORT SETUP 🔔Gold price is deep in the red amid risk-on mood, rallying US Treasury yields.
Russia-Ukraine updates will continue to dictate risk sentiment, dollar trades.
Gold Price appears vulnerable below $1,994, focus on yields, Ukraine updates.
Gold price is facing a double whammy from an improved market mood on hopes for diplomacy on the Ukraine crisis. While the expected 25 bps Fed rate hike this week is keeping the US Treasury yields on a stronger footing, The risk-on flows seem to be weighing down the US dollar, which cushions the downside in gold price. Looking ahead, the Russia-Ukraine war-related updates and risk sentiment will lead the way, in absence of first-tier economic data. Also, the US-Sino high-level talks to discuss Ukraine will be also closely followed.
GBP/USD:FUNDAMENTAL INFOS + TECHNICAL ANALYSIS | SHORT VIEWGBP/USD Forecast: Bears could pause on hopes for diplomacy in Ukraine, ahead of BoE/FOMC
GBP/USD dropped to a fresh 16-month low during the Asian session on the first day of a new week.
The Russia-Ukraine war underpinned the safe-haven USD and exerted some downward pressure.
Slightly oversold conditions warrant some caution for bears ahead of the BoE and FOMC meetings.
The GBP/USD pair prolonged its recent bearish trajectory and kicked off the new week on a downbeat note. This marked the third successive day of a negative move - also the seventh in the previous eight - and dragged spot prices to 1.3000 neighbourhood, or the lowest level since November 2020 during the Asian session. The Russia-Ukraine conflict, so far, has shown no signs of easing. In fact, a barrage of Russian missiles hit a large Ukrainian base near the border with NATO member Poland on Sunday. This continued underpinning the US dollar's status as the global reserve currency and was seen as a key factor that exerted downward pressure on the major.
The greenback also drew support from an extension of a strong move up in the US Treasury bond yields. The recent monster gains in commodity prices following Russia's invasion of Ukraine has been fueling concerns about a major inflationary shock. This, in turn, reinforced bets for an imminent start of the policy tightening cycle in March and acted as a tailwind for the US bond yields. Hence, the market focus now shifts to the upcoming two-day FOMC monetary policy meeting, starting this Tuesday, which will play a key role in influencing the near-term USD price dynamics. In the meantime, signs of stability in the financial markets might cap gains for the buck.
Russia and Ukraine gave their most upbeat assessments after weekend negotiations. In fact, Ukrainian negotiator Mykhailo Podolyak said that Russia is already beginning to talk constructively and that we will achieve some results in a matter of days. Moreover, a Russian delegate to the talks, Leonid Slutsky noted that they had made significant progress and it was possible the delegations could soon reach draft agreements. The incoming positive headlines fueled the latest optimism, which was evident from a generally positive tone around the equity markets and dented demand for traditional safe-haven assets. This, however, did little to lend any support to the pair.
Even expectations that the Bank of England will hike interest rates at its meeting later this week failed to impress bullish traders or ease the bearish pressure surrounding the major. The market bets were reaffirmed by Friday's mostly upbeat UK macro releases, showing that the economy bounced back sharply and expanded by 0.8% in January. Adding to this, the UK industrial output rose 0.7% MoM in January, driven by the 0.8% growth in manufacturing production. Furthermore, services sector output increased by 0.8% during the reported month as against a 0.5% fall recorded in December. This, in turn, suggest that the BoE rate hike is fully priced in the markets.
Nevertheless, traders might refrain from placing aggressive directional bets heading into the key central bank event risks. In the meantime, fresh developments surrounding the Russia-Ukraine saga will be looked upon for some meaningful trading opportunities amid absent relevant market-moving economic releases on Monday.
EUR/USD : FUNDAMENTAL NEWS + PRICE ACTION FORECAST | SHORT SETUPEUR/USD takes a respite at the edge of 1.08 the figure, traders are watching oil prices.
EUR/USD now depends on where the price of oil goes next.
The Fed and ECB divergence is priced in but the ECB will be a key event this week.
EUR/USD is down some 0.45% on the day but the euro is attempting to recover in an accumulation of the latest daily bearish sell-off. EUR/USD positioning inched higher in the week ending 1 March, despite mounting pressure on European currencies on the back of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. However, a long squeeze of those positions would be expected in the next report, underlying the potential longevity of weakness in the euro for the foreseeable future.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine and questions about Europe’s energy security will be a key theme for the European Central Bank this week as the war in Ukraine has made the economic outlook for the eurozone extremely uncertain. No changes are to be expected at the meeting, although some would have expected them a few weeks ago.
The economic implications for the eurozone due to the war will require the ECB to maintain maximum flexibility for its road to normalisation. There may be mention that should everything goes well, net asset purchases can still end in the third quarter. With that being said, there is no telling what the road ahead will be like in what is a very fluid situation. The divergence between the ECB and Federal Reserve is favouring the greenback which leaves 1.0800 vulnerable.
The week is absent of Fed speakers due to the media embargo ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting, but the market is fully priced for a 25 bp hike on March 16 as the start of the tightening cycle. ''Looking ahead, 150 bp of tightening is priced in over the next 12 months, followed by another 25 bp in the following 12 months that would see the Fed Funds rate peak near 1.75%,'' analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman said.
''We continue to believe that the terminal rate will have to be much higher than this, but the Ukraine crisis has pushed Fed tightening expectations lower. January consumer credit is the only US data report today and is expected at $24.5 bln vs. $18.9 bln in December.''
Euro traders are glued to the price of oil
Meanwhile, markets are fixated on the price of oil which is a driver for risk in the forex space and the euro has been suffering for it given the eurozone dependency on Russian oil, coal & gas. However, the EU has agreed to phase out dependency on Russian energy according to an EU draft statement from a summit. The Biden administration is also willing to move ahead with a ban on Russian oil imports into the United States even without the participation of allies in Europe. US oil is currently trading at $120bbls.
The consensus is that the higher prices pose less threat to the Us than it does to the Eurozone. While Russian crude represents only 3% of domestic energy imports, for Europe, Russia is a key provider. Russia provides 25% of the EU's crude and 40% of its natural gas.
Just a few moments before Ethereum sell-off. Guys, alert on Ethereum price! Price entered Critical zone, the movement can be insanely huge. If you like my graphics, please use Like button 💙💛
Guys, I have strong feeling of Deja Vu... Price of Ethereum at similar triangle to the Bitcoin 2020 sell-off case, the proof of the chart I've attached to the main graph, please compare it.
What kind of the move we can expect?
Possible move towards $2000 at first part , then move down to $1600 and final or semi-final to $1000 because traders and investors like round numbers. This might be not the bottom , but we going to see and I will try to make update on the way.
Stay safe
💙💛 Praying for Ukraine
GOLD:HEAD & SHOULDERS | SHORT SETUP ⚡️Hello Everyone, I hope you'll Appreciate our Price action Analysis !
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GBP/USD : DOWNTREND | BEARISH CHANNEL | NEW SHORT SETUPHello Everyone, I hope you'll Appreciate our Price action Analysis !
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EUR/USD :DOWNTREND | BEARISH SCENARIO - SHORT TRIGGER 🔔Hello Everyone, I hope you'll Appreciate our Price action Analysis !
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Russell 2000: FUNDAMENTAL + NEWS INFOs | LONG SETUPRUSSELL 2000 FORECAST:
The Russell 2000 tumbles as U.S. inflation rises at the fastest pace since 1982
Lack of progress in peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine also weighs on sentiment, accelerating the sell-off on Wall Street
The Russell 2000 near-term outlook remains bearish from a technical perspective
The Russell 2000 fell Thursday in midday trading, sinking about 1.3% to 1,990, weighed down by risk-averse mood due to rising geopolitical tensions and rampant inflation in the United States. Investor sentiment improved briefly yesterday on expectations that the crisis between Russia and Ukraine could begin to de-escalate soon, but the winds shifted again today after high-level talks between the two countries' foreign ministers failed to produce any progress towards a ceasefire.
To make matters worse, U.S. CPI continued to accelerate and reached 7.9% year-on-year in February, its highest level since 1982, driven by rising fuel, food and housing costs.The commodity market price shock of the past few days did not influence data for this period, so we can effectively say that inflation has not yet peaked, and that much higher readings are likely in the coming months.
Mounting price pressures will lead the Fed to raise interest rates multiple times in 2022, starting at next week's meeting, although the hiking cycle may be less aggressive than anticipated earlier in the year amid extraordinary uncertainty stemming from the military conflict in Eastern Europe. In any case, the direction of travel is toward less accommodation and tighter financial conditions over the forecast horizon.
The transition to a more restrictive monetary policy environment, coupled with weakening activity, runaway inflation, and the war in Ukraine, will ensure that volatility remains elevated for the foreseeable future, complicating the equity market recovery, particularly for cyclically oriented companies that are highly dependent on healthy GDP growth. This leaves the economically sensitive Russell 2000 in a precarious situation and vulnerable to near-term weakness.
JP225 NIKKEI : FUNDAMENTAL + LONG FORECAST | PRICE WILL GROW.Japan’s Nikkei jumps about 4% following oil drop; Nio sees gains fizzle in Hong Kong debut Shares in Asia-Pacific jumped on Thursday, following an overnight bounce on Wall Street after oil prices fell sharply from a recent surge.
International benchmark Brent crude and U.S. crude futures tumbled more than 10% overnight on Wednesday.
Oil prices however recovered from some of those losses in the afternoon of Asia trading hours on Thursday, with international benchmark Brent crude futures up 4.1% to $115.70 per barrel. U.S. crude futures climbed 2.92% to $111.87 per barrel.
Asia markets responded on Thursday to the overnight declines in oil prices. China, India, Japan and South Korea are all major importers of oil, according to 2020 data from the International Energy Agency.
The Nikkei 225 in Japan led gains among the region’s major markets as it jumped 3.94% to close at 25,690.40 while the Topix index climbed 4.04% to 1,830.03.
The Hang Seng index in Hong Kong closed 1.27% higher at 20,890.26. Shares of Chinese electric vehicle maker Nio started trading in Hong Kong on Thursday, in what is the firm’s secondary listing. The shares initially jumped but later erased most of those gains, finishing its debut day 0.82% above its issue price.
Mainland Chinese stocks closed in positive territory, with the Shanghai composite gaining 1.22% to 3,296.09 while the Shenzhen component surged 2.179% to 12,370.95.
South Korea’s Kospi also gained 2.21% on the day to 2,680.32, with markets returning to trade from Wednesday’s presidential election which saw conservative opposition candidate Yoon Suk-yeol emerging victorious.
In India, the Nifty 50 jumped 1.47% while the BSE Sensex advanced 1.53%, as of 1:47 p.m. local time.
In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 climbed 1.1% to close at 7,130.80. Shares of major miner Rio Tinto, however, plunged 7.73%. The firm told CNBC on Thursday that it is “in the process of terminating all commercial relationships it has with any Russian business.”
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan gained 1.84%.
The U.S. dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of its peers, was at 98.124 after a recent decline from around 99.
The Japanese yen traded at 115.90 per dollar, weaker than levels below 115.2 seen against the greenback earlier this week. The Australian dollar was at $0.7339, still off lows below $0.726 seen earlier in the week.
AUS200 : FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS + LONG FORECAST | LONG SETUPAustralia stocks were higher after the close on Thursday, as gains in the IT, Consumer Discretionary and Financials sectors led shares higher.
At the close in Sydney, the S&P/ASX 200 rose 1.10%.
The best performers of the session on the S&P/ASX 200 were Flight Centre Ltd (ASX:FLT), which rose 6.61% or 1.17 points to trade at 18.87 at the close. Meanwhile, Webjet Ltd (ASX:WEB) added 5.83% or 0.31 points to end at 5.63 and Qantas Airways Ltd (ASX:QAN) was up 5.79% or 0.27 points to 4.93 in late trade.
The worst performers of the session were Nickel Mines Ltd (ASX:NIC), which fell 13.17% or 0.19 points to trade at 1.22 at the close. Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX:RIO) declined 7.73% or 9.27 points to end at 110.61 and Beach Energy Ltd (ASX:BPT) was down 5.90% or 0.10 points to 1.60.
Rising stocks outnumbered declining ones on the Sydney Stock Exchange by 857 to 547 and 380 ended unchanged.
The S&P/ASX 200 VIX, which measures the implied volatility of S&P/ASX 200 options, was up 1.91% to 17.12.
Gold Futures for April delivery was down 0.14% or 2.70 to $1,985.50 a troy ounce. Elsewhere in commodities trading, Crude oil for delivery in April rose 2.37% or 2.58 to hit $111.28 a barrel, while the May Brent oil contract rose 3.51% or 3.90 to trade at $115.04 a barrel.