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ETH/BTC : PRICE READY TO GROW AFTER REBOUND | LONG SETUP Hello Everyone, I hope you'll Appreciate our Price action Analysis ! Our strategy is based on Swing trading with price action Analysis and Advanced Fibos tools. Please support our page by hitting the LIKE 👍 button to this Idea and Follow us to get NEW ONE! Feel free to request any pair/instrument analysis or ask any questions in the comment section below. If you like this idea or have your own opinion about it, please write your own in the comment box . We will be glad for this. Have a Good Take Day_Profits !
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GBP/AUD:DOWNTREND | PRICE ACTION | SHORT SETUP⭐️Hello Everyone, I hope you'll Appreciate our Price action Analysis ! Our strategy is based on Swing trading with price action Analysis and Advanced Fibos tools. Please support our page by hitting the LIKE 👍 button to this Idea and Follow us to get NEW ONE! Feel free to request any pair/instrument analysis or ask any questions in the comment section below. If you like this idea or have your own opinion about it, please write your own in the comment box . We will be glad for this. Have a Good Take Day_Profits !
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AUD/CHF: PRICE ACTION | RETEST PATTERN AND SHORT SETUP ⭐️Hello Everyone, I hope you'll Appreciate our Price action Analysis ! Our strategy is based on Swing trading with price action Analysis and Advanced Fibos tools. Please support our page by hitting the LIKE 👍 button to this Idea and Follow us to get NEW ONE! Feel free to request any pair/instrument analysis or ask any questions in the comment section below. If you like this idea or have your own opinion about it, please write your own in the comment box . We will be glad for this. Have a Good Take Day_Profits !
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EUR/CAD:PRICE ACTION | PRICE IS FALLING AFTER TOP/DIV. SHORTHello Everyone, I hope you'll Appreciate our Price action Analysis ! Our strategy is based on Swing trading with price action Analysis and Advanced Fibos tools. Please support our page by hitting the LIKE 👍 button to this Idea and Follow us to get NEW ONE! Feel free to request any pair/instrument analysis or ask any questions in the comment section below. If you like this idea or have your own opinion about it, please write your own in the comment box . We will be glad for this. Have a Good Take Day_Profits !
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EUR/USD:TECHNICAL ANALYSIS | REVERSAL SETUP | LONG ⭐️Hello Everyone, I hope you'll Appreciate our Price action Analysis ! Our strategy is based on Swing trading with price action Analysis and Advanced Fibos tools. Please support our page by hitting the LIKE 👍 button to this Idea and Follow us to get NEW ONE! Feel free to request any pair/instrument analysis or ask any questions in the comment section below. If you like this idea or have your own opinion about it, please write your own in the comment box . We will be glad for this. Have a Good Take Day_Profits !
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S&P500: Wall Street advances on earnings optimism | LONG 🔔Wall Street advances on earnings optimism, dovish rate rise remarks The three main Wall Street benchmarks had their best days in over a month on Tuesday, with the Nasdaq closing up 2.2%, as investors responded to positive earnings and dovish comments from two U.S. Federal Reserve officials on interest rate rises. Johnson & Johnson advanced 3.1% to a second record close in three sessions, as the drugmaker's quarterly profit exceeded market expectations and it raised its dividend payout. Of the first 49 companies in the S&P 500 index to report quarterly earnings, 79.6% have exceeded profit estimates, as per Refinitiv data. Typically, 66% beat estimates. "It certainly feels like every earnings season, especially since March 2020, is more important than the next, but particularly given where we sit in the economic cycle, the Fed's rate hike cycle, and the elevated inflation backdrop," said Max Grinacoff, equity derivatives strategist at BNP Paribas. International Business Machines Corp gained 2.4%, before ticking up a further 1.8% following its latest numbers report after market close. Meanwhile, Netflix Inc closed 3.2% up, before cratering 24% after the bell when it reported subscriber numbers had declined for the first time in a decade. The streaming company also forecast further losses in the second quarter. St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard on Monday repeated his case for increasing the rates to 3.5% by the end of the year to slow a 40-year-high inflation. He also said he did not rule out a 75 basis points rate hike. Stocks appeared to brush aside the remarks, and the main indexes rallied further in late afternoon trading after both Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans and Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic offered more dovish comments. Bond yields continued their recent moves higher though. The 30-year yield exceeded 3% for the first time since April 2019, while the yield on the 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) turned positive for the first time since March 2020, the start of the coronavirus pandemic. "We typically assume higher yields should be beneficial for banks, but that correlation has broken down a bit and it's been the sectors most negatively-correlated to rising rates - which have actually rallied," said BNP's Grinacoff. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 499.51 points, or 1.45%, to 34,911.2, the S&P 500 gained 70.52 points, or 1.61%, to 4,462.21 and the Nasdaq Composite added 287.30 points, or 2.15%, to 13,619.66. The advances were the most by all three since March 16. Ten of the 11 major S&P subsectors were higher, led by consumer discretionary stocks. Among the best performers in the index were gaming companies, with Wynn Resorts Inc, Caesars Entertainment Inc and Penn National Gaming Inc gaining between 4.9% and 5.9%. Energy stocks fell 1% as oil prices tumbled 5.2% after the International Monetary Fund cut its growth forecasts for the global economy and warned of higher inflation. This year's rally in crude prices, which are still up around a third despite Tuesday's declines, helped Halliburton Co post an 85% rise in first-quarter adjusted profit as demand for its services and equipment increased. However, the oilfield services firm's shares were 0.8% lower, amid the wider slump in energy stocks. Meanwhile, Twitter Inc declined 4.7%. More private equity firms have expressed interest in participating in a deal for the micro blogging site, according to reports. Trading volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.53 billion shares, compared with the 11.67 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days. The S&P 500 posted 35 new 52-week highs and 11 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 70 new highs and 333 new lows.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by FOREXN1
6
EUR/USD:FUNDAMENTALS+TECHNICAL ANALYSIS | TRIGGER | LONG 🔔EUR/USD remains bid, extends the upside beyond 1.0800 EUR/USD adds to Tuesday’s gains and tests 1.0840. The dollar trims gains after following recent cycle peaks. Germany Producer Prices rose more than expected in March. The single currency keeps enjoying the renewed optimism and now pushes EUR/USD to new multi-day highs in the vicinity of 1.0850 on Wednesday. EUR/USD looks to yields, USD EUR/USD advances for the second session in a row and extends the recent breakout of the 1.0800 barrier midweek. Further gains in spot come on the back of the renewed offered bias in the buck along with the corrective move in US yields. On the latter, the German 10y benchmark yields give away some gains after trading near the psychological 1.00% hurdle on Tuesday, an area last visited back in mid-July 2015. In the domestic calendar, Germany’s Producer Prices rose at a monthly 4.9% in March and 30.9% over the last twelve months. In addition, the trade deficit in the broader Euroland shrank to €7.6B in February and Industrial Production expanded 2.0% YoY also in the same period. Later in the session, Mortgage Applications and Existing Home Sales are due across the pond, while FOMC’s Evans and Daly are also due to speak. What to look for around EUR EUR/USD regains some composure and trespasses 1.0800, putting further distance from last week’s new 2022 lows in the mid-1.0700s in the wake of the ECB event. Despite the ongoing bounce, the outlook for the pair remains well into the bearish side for the time being, always in response to dollar dynamics and geopolitical concerns. As usual, occasional pockets of strength in the single currency should appear reinforced by speculation the ECB could raise rates before the end of the year, while higher German yields, elevated inflation, the decent pace of the economic recovery and auspicious results from key fundamentals in the region are also supportive of a rebound in the euro. Key events in the euro area this week: EMU Balance of Trade, Industrial Production, IMF World/Bank Spring Meetings (Wednesday) – Final EMU Inflation Rate, Flash EMU Consumer Confidence (Thursday) – EMU, Germany Flash Manufacturing, Services PMIs (Friday). Eminent issues on the back boiler: Asymmetric economic recovery post-pandemic in the euro area. Speculation of ECB tightening/tapering later in the year. Second round of the presidential elections in France (April 24). Impact on the region’s economic growth prospects of the war in Ukraine. EUR/USD levels to watch So far, spot is up 0.46% at 1.0836 and faces the next up barrier at 1.0933 (weekly high April 11) seconded by 1.1000 (round level) and finally 1.1087 (55-day SMA). On the other hand, the break below 1.0757 (2022 low April 14) would target 1.0727 (low April 24 2020) en route to 1.0635 (2020 low March 23).
Long
by FOREXN1
2
USD/CAD:DOWNTREND | FUNDAMENTALS+TECHNICAL ANALYSIS | SHORT 🔔 The Bank of Canada (BoC) is expected to raise rates by 75bp. Subsequently, the loonie is set to strengthen against the euro but weaken against the US dollar due to the stance of the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Federal Reserve (Fed), respectively, economists at Commerzbank report. Further CAD gains against the euro seem possible “On the market more than 75bp are already priced in for the OIS-based rate expectations over the 3-month horizon – i.e. the next two BoC meetings. Depending on whether the US central bank or the ECB is used as a benchmark this seems rather disappointing or quite attractive.” “The loonie will continue to struggle to make significant gains against the USD even if the market increasingly expects one or more 50bp BoC steps. On the other hand, further CAD-gains against the euro seem possible, in particular in view of the continued war in Ukraine.” USD/CAD Price Analysis: Rejection above 200-DMA once again recalls sellers USD/CAD drops back below 1.2600, tracking the pullback in the US dollar. The oil price rebound also lends support to the major. USD/CAD turns lower towards 21-DMA after rejection above 200-DMA. USD/CAD is holding lower ground below 1.2600, undermined by the renewed downside in the US dollar against its major peers. The pullback in the dollar from two-year peaks could be mainly attributed to the steep correction in the USD/JPY pair after it faced rejection just below the 129.50 psychological barrier. Meanwhile, the rebound in the price of WTI on lower US inventories and OPEC+ production levels also added to the weight on the major. All eyes now remain on the Canadian Consumer Price Index (CPI) data and the Fed’s Beige Book to indicate the further direction in the pair. Technically, USD/CAD is turning lower towards the horizontal 21-Daily Moving Average (DMA) support at 1.2554 after having failed to find acceptance above the mildly bullish 200-DMA over the past five trading days. The 200-DMA currently stands at 1.2628.
Short
by FOREXN1
2
GOLD: PENDING ORDER $2000 STRUCTURE | SHORT SETUP 🔔Gold Price looks north as investors seek refuge amid inflation, growth risks. XAUUSD shrugs off firmer US dollar, yields on hawkish Fed’s outlook. Gold bulls keep their sight on $2,000 but acceptance above $1,990 is critical. Having booked the second straight weekly gain, gold price is setting off a new week on the right footing, as bulls regather strength after Good Friday’s brief pullback. XAUUSD is sitting at the highest level since March 14 at $1,989, as the increased demand for safety outweighs the ongoing rally in the US Treasury yields alongside the dollar. With no end in sight to the Russia-Ukraine war and a likelihood of a European Union (EU) embargo on the Russian gas, commodities prices have shot through the roof, intensifying fears over inflation and its impact on the global economy. That said, investors also remain worried about the risks to growth, as major central banks embark upon the path of policy normalization to curb raging inflation. Markets failed to find any comfort from the stronger China’s Q1 GDP data, as investors assess the impact of the recent covid lockdowns and the PBOC’s RRR cut. Meanwhile, the dollar and the yields keep the upside rolling, as a 50-bps May Fed rate hike seems a done deal. The Fed commentary last week hinted that the world’s most powerful central bank looks to return to neutral rates sooner (than later). The ECB’s dovish surprise widened the yield differential in the favor of the dollar and provided extra legs to the upside in the US rates. Looking forward, the negative tone in the market sentiment will continue to keep the haven demand for Gold Price underpinned, although bulls could face an uphill battle should the dollar and yields continue firming up. The speech from the St. Louis Fed President James Bullard will stand out amid a data-scarce US docket and Easter Monday-led thin market conditions.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FOREXN1
2
EUR/USD:FUNDAMENTALS + TECHNICAL ANALYSIS | BULLISH PATTERN LONGEUR/USD bulls are out and about in the run-up to the ECB. The US dollar is giving some relief to the forex space for which the euro is benefitting from. At 1.0902, the euro vs the greenback is higher by 0.13% and has travelled between 1.0882 and 1.0908 within a relatively tight range as markets consolidated within hourly ranges. Traders are awaiting the European Central Bank while the US dollar has been on the back foot on Thursday after tumbling overnight. US yields paused which gave some relief to the beaten-up euro. The US 10-year yield fell 2.4bps to 2.697% after it reached as high as 2.836% on Tuesday, ahead of US inflation figures that missed the mark in the core reading, weighing on the greenback. The two-year yield was also lower at 2.3604%. EURUSD was rising 0.54% on Wednesday, though the single currency fell against sterling. This left the dollar index (DXY) which measures the dollar against six peers, trading between 99.663 and 99.884 in Asia after a 0.52% overnight tumble. Eyes on the ECB The market is getting positioned for a hint that the ECB might draw a line under its quantitative easing programme in the second quarter rather than the third. However, analysts at Westpac expect that the ECB Governing Council will keep its key interest rates on hold at their April meeting, the deposit facility at -0.5%. ''Bond purchases should also continue until June but then most likely cease. The focus will be on President Lagarde’s press conference, including any guidance on how long after the end of QE rates might start to rise, given the difficult combination of inflation a long way above target and growth downgrades due to soaring energy prices.''
Long
by FOREXN1
3
GOLD : FUNDAMENTALS + TECHNICAL NEXT TARGET | SHORT ! 🔔Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD bulls flirt with ascending channel /50% Fibo. confluence Gold prolonged its recent move up and shot to a near one-month high on Wednesday. Inflation fears, the Ukraine crisis, modest USD pullback remained supportive of the move. The prospects for a more aggressive Fed kept a lid on any further gains for the metal. Gold stretched its winning streak for the fifth successive day on Wednesday and climbed to a near one-month high, around the $1,981-$1,982 region. The US consumer prices showed no signs of easing in March and accelerated to levels last seen in 1981. Moreover, the Producer Price Inflation indicated that there are pipeline costs that could put upward pressure on the already high inflation . This, in turn, was seen as a key factor that continued boosting the metal's appeal as a hedge against rising costs. The US consumer inflation figures, however, were not as bad as feared by the markets, which forced the US Treasury bond yields to pause their recent strong rally to the multi-year peak. This triggered a corrective pullback in the US dollar from its highest level since May 2020 and offered additional support to the dollar-denominated commodity. On the geopolitical front, Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Tuesday that peace talks with Ukraine had hit a dead end. The comments dashed hopes for a diplomatic solution to end the war and fueled concerns about the potential economic fallout from the Ukraine crisis. This was seen as another factor that benefitted the safe-haven gold . That said, a goodish recovery in the risk sentiment - as depicted by a generally positive tone around the equity markets - acted as a headwind for the precious metal. Apart from this, expectations that the Fed would tighten its monetary policy at a faster pace to curb soaring inflation further contributed to cap gains for the non-yielding yellow metal. The bets were reaffirmed by Fed Governor Lael Brainard, saying that the central bank will stay the course on hiking interest rates, as well as an effort to trim its balance sheet . Moving ahead, the market focus now shifts to the European Central Bank , which is scheduled to announce its monetary policy decision on Thursday. Later during the early North American session, traders will take cues from the US economic docket - featuring the releases of monthly Retail Sales figures, the usual Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Prelim Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. The combination of factors will influence the USD price dynamics and provide some impetus to gold prices. Apart from this, the incoming geopolitical headlines will be looked upon to grab some short-term opportunities. Technical outlook From a technical perspective, the overnight positive move stalled near the top end of an upward sloping channel extending from sub-$1,900 levels. The said barrier, currently around the $1,985-$1,986 region, coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the $2,071-$1,890 fall and should act as a pivotal point. A convincing breakthrough should allow bulls to aim back to reclaim the $2,000 psychological mark and push spot prices to the $2,010-$2,015 intermediate resistance. Some follow-through buying should pave the way for a move towards testing the next relevant hurdle near the $2,050 area. On the flip side, the 38.2% Fibo. level, around the $1,960 area, now seems to protect the immediate downside, which if broken might prompt some technical selling. The XAU/USD could then accelerate the fall towards challenging the ascending channel support, currently around the $1,960 region. Sustained weakness below the latter would shift the bias in favour of bearish traders and make gold vulnerable to test the $1,915-$1,914 support before eventually dropping to the $1,900 round-figure mark.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FOREXN1
2
GOLD:FUNDAMENTAL INFO + TECHNICAL SCENARIO | REVERSAL | SHORT 🔔Gold Tests Resistance At $1950 As Demand For Safe-Haven Assets Stays Strong Gold managed to settle above $1935 and is testing the next resistance level at $1950. Gold attempts to move higher amid rising geopolitical tensions. Gold markets ignore rising yields and stronger U.S. dollar, which indicates that demand for the safe-haven gold is strong. A move above $1950 will push gold towards the resistance level at $1965. Gold Tries To Gain More Ground At The Start Of The Week Gold is trying to settle above the resistance level at $1950, while Treasury yields are testing new highs. The yield of 10-year Treasuries has recently managed to settle above the 2.75% level and is trying to move towards the 2.80% level. Longer-term yields have been rising fast in recent weeks, which was bearish for precious metals. However, gold bulls ignored higher yields as they focused on rising geopolitical tensions. Demand for the safe-haven U.S. dollar has also increased, but stronger dollar failed to put any pressure on gold markets. Not surprisingly, VanEck Gold Miners ETF managed to settle above $39.50 during the previous trading session and looks ready to test yearly highs near $40.25. In case gold manages to settle above the resistance at $1950, VanEck Gold Miners ETF should gain strong upside momentum and move to new highs.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FOREXN1
4
GBP/USD:POSSIBLE REVERSAL AFTER RETEST $1.300 SUPPORT | LONG 🔔GBP/USD Price Analysis: At ‘make or break’ to near 1.3000 The cable is testing the yearly lows at 1.3000. For further movement in the asset, the momentum oscillator RSI (14) is advocating bears. The 200-EMA has acted as a major barricade for the pair. The GBP/USD pair has remained in a bearish trajectory after printing March highs to near 1.3300. The asset has witnessed a sheer fall and is auctioning near the yearly lows at around 1.3000. The asset is at a make-or-break level, however, odds are favoring a break going forward. On a four-hour scale, the cable is testing the previous major bottom printed on March 14 at 1.3000. It is worth noting that the asset has sensed a textbook kind of resistance from the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is currently placed at 1.3190. The asset is trading below 20-period EMA to near 1.3050, which adds to the downside filters.
Long
by FOREXN1
3
EUR/USD:FUNDAMENTALS INFOS+TECHNICAL PROJECTON | LONG SETUP 🔔EUR/USD bulls step it up from daily support, testing 1.0900, French elections in focus EUR/USD is on the front foot to start the week, testing 1.09 territories. The French elections have kicked started bulls into gear. French President Emmanuel Macron is leading in the polls of the last round of the presidential elections. EUR/USD is testing the 1.09 area at the start of the week following a recovery from the lows on Friday near 1.0840. The price rallied to a high of 1.0919 in the open as markets are relieved that the incumbent French President Emmanuel Macron is leading in the polls of the presidential elections. French elections: Macron leads 54% to le Pen 46%, EUR likes it ''I'm ready to invent something new to gather diverse convictions and views in order to build with them a joint action," he said. He vowed to "implement the project of progress, of French and European openness and independence we have advocated for." Meanwhile, the US dollar index on Friday posted its largest weekly percentage gain in a month. The focus has been on a more aggressive pace of Federal Reserve tightening to curb soaring inflation which is taking a momentary backseat to the elections on Monday. The index had advanced to 100 for the first time in nearly two years, reaching as high as 100.19, the best level since May 2020. It was last little changed on the day at 99.822, and up 1.3% on the week, although the news of the election has sent the index on the back foot to 99.62 the lows for today so far. Looking ahead for the week, the European Central Bank will be in focus.'' We expect a dramatic shift from the ECB, with the announcement of an early end to QE (in May) and setting the groundwork (but not quite committing to) a June hike via a change to its forward guidance (yet again),'' analysts at TD Securities explained. ''Inflation has jumped well above where the ECB thought it would be just one month ago, and the ECB has said it would adjust the APP to reflect major shocks.''
Long
by FOREXN1
1
USD/CAD:FUNDAMENTALS INFO + TECHNICAL SETUP | SHORT TRADE 🔔USD/CAD: All eyes on the BoC next week as US dollar reaches for the skies Bank of Canada is expected to announce that it is ending its balance sheet reinvestment program. USD/CAD presses against daily resistance as the Fed narrative underpins. USD/CAD is holding in the resistance around 1.2590 that was penetrated but simultaneously hamstrung the pair overnight, pulling the pair back from a full breach into the 1.26 area. The US dollar has reached the highest in two years and the US Treasury 10-year yield touched a three-year high following hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve. In Asia, the greenback has extended those highs. DXY, hit a fresh 99.903 cycle high, the highest since late May 2020 as it reaches towards blue skies at the psychological 100.00 mark. Underpinning the greenback, the 2 year-10 year spread widened also due to the Fed's plans to reduce its balance sheet. The yield on 10-year Treasury notes was higher by 3.8 basis points to 2.647% while the 2-year note yield was losing 4.5 basis points at 2.457%, leaving the 2-10 spread at 18.72 basis points by the close of play on Wall Street. Meanwhile, the Fed narrative is keeping a lid on rallies in the commodity currencies and the price of oil tanking to the lowest levels since mid-March has not helped the case for CAD. The minute's Fed released yesterday from the Fed's March meeting underpin the worries of higher prices and reinforce the prospect that the US central bank's balance sheet reduction is imminent. On Thursday, St. Louis Fed president James Bullard polished this theme by saying the Fed remains behind the curve despite increases in mortgage rates and government bond yields. As for oil, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil has been pressured this week and it carved out a fresh low on Thursday, reaching a low of $93.84c after falling from a high of $98.80c. The price of crude oil has fallen for a second straight day on Thursday. Wednesday's announcement of the release of 60-million barrels of strategic reserves from members of the International Energy Agency has weighed on the price at the same time that a drop in Chinese demand due to quarantines hits the market. BoC in focus Looking ahead to next week, the Bank of Canada is expected to announce that it is ending its balance sheet reinvestment program at next week's interest rate announcement. ''In practice, we expect the Bank will end its secondary market buybacks by the end of April ($650mn/week on average), but we look for it to continue retaining a small amount of primary market issuance (~7% of nominal auctions),'' analysts at TD Securities said. ''Roughly a third of the BoC's bond holdings are scheduled to mature by the end of 2023, so we look for the balance sheet to decline relatively quickly through the early phases of QT. However, the Bank has indicated that it doesn't expect to reach pre-pandemic levels of settlement balances, which suggests that CORRA will continue trading below the BoC's target."
Short
by FOREXN1
6
GBP/USD: FUNDAMENTAL INFO + TECHNICAL SCENARIO | LONG SETUP 🔔GBP/USD sees a downside to monthly lows at 1.3050 as the Fed looks to return to neutral rates quickly. GBP/USD is likely to slip to near 1.3050 on the hawkish stance from the Fed. The Fed may achieve the target of the neutral rate by the first quarter of 2023. Next week CPI numbers from the US and the UK will remain the key events to watch out. The GBP/USD pair is oscillating in a wider range of 1.3045-1.3106 over the last three trading sessions. The cable seems to extend losses after tumbling below the April 6 low at 1.3045 as the asset has struggled to surpass the round level resistance of 1.3100 decisively. The asset is driving lower after the release of hawkish Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes and elevating support for the neutral rates by the Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers on completion of the stated objective of helicopter money and ultra-loose monetary policy. The FOMC minutes have dictated that the Fed is considering one or more interest rate hikes of 50 basis points (bps) this year to contain the inflation mess. Apart from that, a sheer balance sheet reduction will kick-start from May to squeeze liquidity from the market. Fed’s neutral rate is viewed at 2.4% by a majority of the policymakers as its application will not reduce growth and dampen demand. Considering the mathematics behind reaching the neutral rates at 2.4%, the Fed is likely to reach the destination of neutral rates by the first quarter of 2023. Going forward, the focus of the market participants will remain on the US Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is due on Tuesday. A preliminary estimate for the yearly US CPI is 8.3% against the previous print of 7.9%. The UK’s docket will also report its yearly CPI numbers, which are expected to land at 6.6% in comparison with the prior figure of 6.2%.
Long
by FOREXN1
1
EUR/USD: FUNDAMENTALS + TECHNICAL SETUP | LONG TRADE 🔔EUR/USD looks to drop near 1.0850 on Ukraine crisis, hawkish ECB minutes EUR/USD is eyeing more downside as DXY strengths on discussions of restoration to neutral rates. The shared currency has failed to capitalize on hawkish ECB minutes and decent Retail Sales. Members of the UN Human Rights Council voted in favor of ceasing Russia as an associate. The EUR/USD pair has displayed a six-day losing streak and is likely to extend losses on Friday amid expectations of escalation in the Ukraine crisis after Russia ceases to be a member of the United Nations (UN) Human Rights Council. The members of the UN Human Rights Council voted in favor of stripping Russia from the members' list after the Russian rebels committed war crimes in Bucha, Ukraine. As world nations are isolating Russia from major communities, Russian leader Vladimir Putin could de-escalate progress talks with Ukraine, and the Ukraine crisis may continue to elevate further. Meanwhile, the hawkish European Central Bank (ECB) minutes of March’s monetary policy meeting have failed to cushion the shared currency. Most of the ECB policymakers have favored immediate action through monetary policy to corner the galloping inflation. Apart from that, the ECB should halt the Asset Purchase Programme (APP) as the stated objective behind its launch has been achieved. Along with the hawkish ECB minutes, the shared currency has also failed to capitalize upon the outperformance of the Euro Retail Sales. The Eurostat reported Retail Sales at 5%, higher than the preliminary estimate of 4.8% but significantly lower than the previous print of 8.4%. On the dollar front, the US dollar index (DXY) is eyeing a trigger, which will drive the asset towards the much-awaited resistance of the 100.00 figure. Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers have started favoring the restoration of policy rates to neutral amid rising inflation and an objective of self-dependent economy.
Long
by FOREXN1
4
EUR/USD Forecast: Has euro found a bottom? LONG SETUP 🔔EUR/USD has failed to stage a convincing rebound early Thursday. Hawkish tone in FOMC's March meeting minutes lifted US yields late Wednesday. Investors await ECB's Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts and Fedspeak. EUR/USD has extended its weekly slide on Wednesday and ended up closing the fifth straight trading day in negative territory. The pair managed to stage a technical correction during the Asian trading hours on Thursday but struggled to gather bullish momentum. Although the technical picture points to oversold conditions, it's too early to count out further losses. The minutes of the FOMC's March meeting showed late Wednesday that many participants noted that they would have preferred a 50 basis point (bps) hike at that meeting. Additionally, the publication confirmed that the balance sheet reduction would start after the May meeting. With the immediate market reaction, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield advanced to its strongest level in nearly three years and helped the greenback outperform its rivals. On the flip side, European Central Bank (ECB) Chief Economist Philip Lane argued that it was important for them not to overreact to the surge in inflation. The policy divergence between the ECB and the Fed continues to widen as the European economy faces a heightened risk of recession amid the ongoing Russia-Ukraine crisis. Meanwhile, the European Union is reportedly looking to delay the ban on Russian coal imports to mid-August from mid-July. Nevertheless, this headline doesn't seem to be having a noticeable impact on the shared currency. Later in the day, the ECB will release the accounts of its March monetary policy meeting. Even if there is a hawkish tone in the ECB's publication, the shared currency's gains could remain limited because the geopolitical developments since March 10 have not been in favor of the euro. The US economic docket will feature the weekly Initial Jobless Claims data. More importantly, several FOMC policymakers, including St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard and Chicago Fed President Charles Evans will be delivering speeches.
Long
by FOREXN1
1