❇️BTCUSD, Goes Back and Falls or Keeps Falling?❇️Technical Analysis
1-Offers area
2-Fibonacci level
3-Bearish structure
4-Moimentum bassist
Telegramsignals
GBP/NZD: UPDATE | PRICE READY FOR REVERSAL | SHORT !Hello Everyone, I hope you'll Appreciate our Price action Analysis !
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GBP/USD:Losing 2% after BoE with next big stop as low as 1.2000 GBPUSD collapsed by 1.9% or more than 230 pips to 1.2380 from the start of the day on Thursday, with pressure intensifying after the Bank of England’s bank rate decision announcement.
As analysts had expected, the Bank of England raised the rate by 25 points to 1.0%. Three of the nine monetary policy committee members called for a 50-point increase at once, and there were hints in the comments that a 50-point increase could be an option at subsequent meetings.
At the same time, the Bank of England has worsened its economic outlook for 2023, expecting the economy to contract in response to tight financial conditions and the effects of high energy prices. The currency market sees the recession as a notable negative factor, putting pressure on medium and long-term interest rates.
After consolidating over the last few days and attempting a rebound yesterday after the FOMC, GBPUSD has moved sharply back down and updated to lows from June 2020, a strong bearish signal.
The pair runs the risk of slipping to 1.2000, an area proven to be the Pound’s last line of defence more than once in previous years, without much of a hurdle. The significant support of the previous six years and the 161.8% Fibonacci target from the last declining momentum since late April are concentrated here
GOLD:RSI+STOCH DIVERGENCE | PRICE MAY FGROW AFTER FED'S RATE Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD sees a reversal to near $1,860 amid anxiety over Fed’s rate hike
Gold prices have displayed exhaustion in the downtrend as the RSI (14) showed a bullish divergence.
The anxiety over the interest rate decision by the Fed has paused the Fx domain.
The US labor market sees 400k additions in April.
Gold Price (XAU/USD) is hovering around $1,865.00 and is likely to remain on tenterhooks as uncertainty over the announcement of the monetary policy by the Federal Reserve (Fed) has paused the whole Fx domain. The precious metal has displayed a subdued performance in the early Tokyo session and is likely to perform lackluster till the announcement of the interest rate decision.
Gold prices are going to witness a lack of attention from investors for a prolonged period as the determination of the Fed to return to neutral rates will keep pushing itself to raise interest rates sooner rather than later. An interest rate hike by 50 basis points (bps) is on the cards but taking into consideration the multi-decade high inflation and consistency in full employment levels and wage-price hikes, one more jumbo rate hike by the Fed looks imminent.
Meanwhile, the US dollar index (DXY) is attempting to overstep 103.50 in this session. Apart from the Fed’s policy, the DXY is also focusing on the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), which is due on Friday. The job additions by the US administration in April are expected to land at 400k against the prior print of 431k. Also, the Unemployment Rate looks to decline to 3.5% from the previous figure of 3.6%.
Gold technical analysis
The formation of bullish divergence on an hourly scale is signaling a reversal in the downtrend. The asset made a lower low while the momentum oscillator Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) didn’t register a fresh low, which showed exhaustion in the downside momentum. The 50- and 200- Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) at $1,871.63 and $1,890.96 respectively, still favor the downside. The RSI (14) is likely to find a cushion at around 40.00, which will result in a fresh bullish impulsive wave ahead.
AUD/CHF:BEARISH SETUP | PRICE WILL DROP | SHORT ⚡️Hello Everyone, I hope you'll Appreciate our Price action Analysis !
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EUR/USD:NEWS OUTLOOK + NEXT TARGETS | LONG SETUP 🔔EUR/USD, US DOLLAR ANALYSIS AND NEWS:
Hot Core Inflation Keeps a July Hike in Play
Month End Flows Unwinding as Euro Recovers
EU DATA RECAP: VERY STRONG CORE INFLATION
Euro Zone flash estimate of inflation rose 7.5% Y/Y, matching consensus. However, the core figure printed notably above expectations at 3.5% compared to the 3.2% expected. As such, this will further fuel expectations that the ECB will begin to raise interest rates from July, where current market pricing is near fully priced in for lift-off. Meanwhile, Euro Zone Q1 GDP came in line at 5% Y/Y with a slightly softer than expected quarterly figure 0.2% vs 0.3% expected. That said, this is unlikely to deter the ECB from stepping up its plan to normalise monetary policy.
Market reaction to the data has been muted given that the figures are unlikely to notably move the needle for the near term outlook for ECB policy. Keep in mind that the bigger focus has been on Fed policy with markets positioning themselves ahead of next week’s meeting.
MODEST USD RETRACEMENT AS MONTH END FLOWS FIZZLE
Elsewhere, as we approach the turn of the month, market participants look to be using this as an opportunity to fade the recent aggressive moves in the US Dollar. A reminder that in months where the US equities (SPX) fall at least 3% or more, the US Dollar tends to rise into month end before retracing the move in the first week of the new month. This is shown in the graph below. That being said, while most can agree that the USD is overbought, the issue has been the lack of alternatives with the greenback’s major counterpart (EUR) offer little to no reasons to be bullish. However, the currency I would watch is the Chinese Yuan, where a turnaround could suggest a possible USD peak.
EXPLAINER OF FX MONTH END REBALANCING
London WMR Fix (1600 London Time): The WMR Fix is one of the most widely used benchmarks for FX trading, taking place every day within a 5-minute window around 1600 London time. The fix provides a standard set of currency benchmark rates so that equity and bond investors can compare portfolio valuations and performance with each other.
The WMR fix tends to coincide with a sharp rise in trading volume, prompting a sizeable increase in liquidity. Occasionally, this allows for large real money flows to take place without causing too many distortions. However, flows can also be dominant in one direction (strong buying or strong selling) leading to outsized moves in a very short period of time.
The largest bout of volatility stems from the month-end fix, taking place on the last business day, where market extreme moves can often occur in the lead up during 15:00-16:00 London Time. These FX flows are derived from mostly equity rebalancing.
As such, if a UK portfolio manager holds US Dollar-denominated assets and seeks to hedge FX risk, then a monthly rise in the value of those assets will lead to more dollar hedging (selling the dollar). For example, if equities are FX hedged and US stocks (S&P 500) have risen on the month, while the FTSE 100 (UK stock market) has traded flat, then UK based investors would sell US Dollars against the Pound to add to their hedge, leading to an appreciation in GBP/USD. The greater the outperformance of US equity market over the UK would be associated with greater selling of the USD against GBP, prompting GBP to rise even higher. Although, extreme moves can often partially revert in the day following the month-end fix. That said, the occurrence of such event in a market as liquid as FX, suggests that the London fix (month-end fix in particular) is important for FX traders to watch for.
USD/JPY:REVERSAL ON BULLISH CHANNEL | PRICE READY TO DROP!Hello Everyone, I hope you'll Appreciate our Price action Analysis !
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GOLD : PRICE REBOUND ON SUPPORT AREA | READY TO GROW !Hello Everyone, I hope you'll Appreciate our Price action Analysis !
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AUD/CHF : RETEST PREVIOUS AREA | SHORT SETUP | SHORT ⭐️Hello Everyone, I hope you'll Appreciate our Price action Analysis !
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EUR/USD:FUNDAMENTAL+TECHNICAL ANALYSIS | REVERSAL| LONG 🔔 EUR/USD drops to fresh 5-year lows in the sub-1.0600 area
EUR/USD extends the leg lower to the area below 1.0600.
The greenback trades in cycle peaks, US yields regain composure.
Germany GfK Consumer Confidence deteriorated in May.
Sellers remain well in control of the sentiment around the single currency and drag EUR/USD to the 1.0590/85 band, or new 5-year lows, on Wednesday.
EUR/USD weaker on USD-strength, geopolitics
EUR/USD loses ground for the fifth session in a row midweek amidst the continuation of the strong march north in the dollar and persistent geopolitical concerns, particularly around the potential EU embargo on Russian oil.
In the German debt markets, the 10y bund yields hover around 0.80% amidst the renewed multi-session weakness, whereas US yields regain some upside traction following the recent corrective leg.
In the domestic calendar, Germany Consumer Confidence tracked by GfK worsened to -26.5 for the month of May. Later on Wednesday, ECB’s Lagarde is also due to speak.
In the US docket, weekly Mortgage Applications come in the first turn seconded by Trade Balance figures and Pending Home Sales.
What to look for around EUR
EUR/USD’s price action shows further deterioration and revisits the sub-1.0600 area for the first time since April 2017. The outlook for the pair still remains tilted towards the bearish side, always in response to dollar dynamics, geopolitical concerns and the Fed-ECB divergence. Occasional pockets of strength in the single currency, in the meantime, should appear reinforced by speculation the ECB could raise rates at some point around June/July, while higher German yields, elevated inflation and a decent pace of the economic recovery in the region are also supportive of an improvement in the mood around the euro.
Key events in the euro area this week: Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (Wednesday) – ECB 2021 Annual Report, Consumer Confidence, Economic Sentiment, Germany Flash Inflation Rate (Thursday) – Germany, EMU Flash Q1 GDP Growth Rate, EMU Flash Inflation Rate (Friday).
Eminent issues on the back boiler: Asymmetric economic recovery post-pandemic in the euro area. Speculation of ECB tightening/tapering later in the year. Second round of the presidential elections in France (April 24). Impact on the region’s economic growth prospects of the war in Ukraine.
LONG POSITIONAfter a complete Breakout we can wait for a retest on the lower TF & look for opportunities to go long.
EUR/CAD:PRICE ACTION | PRICE IS FALLING AFTER TOP/DIV. SHORTHello Everyone, I hope you'll Appreciate our Price action Analysis !
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Russell 2000: FUNDAMENTAL + NEWS INFOs | LONG SETUPRUSSELL 2000 FORECAST:
The Russell 2000 tumbles as U.S. inflation rises at the fastest pace since 1982
Lack of progress in peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine also weighs on sentiment, accelerating the sell-off on Wall Street
The Russell 2000 near-term outlook remains bearish from a technical perspective
The Russell 2000 fell Thursday in midday trading, sinking about 1.3% to 1,990, weighed down by risk-averse mood due to rising geopolitical tensions and rampant inflation in the United States. Investor sentiment improved briefly yesterday on expectations that the crisis between Russia and Ukraine could begin to de-escalate soon, but the winds shifted again today after high-level talks between the two countries' foreign ministers failed to produce any progress towards a ceasefire.
To make matters worse, U.S. CPI continued to accelerate and reached 7.9% year-on-year in February, its highest level since 1982, driven by rising fuel, food and housing costs.The commodity market price shock of the past few days did not influence data for this period, so we can effectively say that inflation has not yet peaked, and that much higher readings are likely in the coming months.
Mounting price pressures will lead the Fed to raise interest rates multiple times in 2022, starting at next week's meeting, although the hiking cycle may be less aggressive than anticipated earlier in the year amid extraordinary uncertainty stemming from the military conflict in Eastern Europe. In any case, the direction of travel is toward less accommodation and tighter financial conditions over the forecast horizon.
The transition to a more restrictive monetary policy environment, coupled with weakening activity, runaway inflation, and the war in Ukraine, will ensure that volatility remains elevated for the foreseeable future, complicating the equity market recovery, particularly for cyclically oriented companies that are highly dependent on healthy GDP growth. This leaves the economically sensitive Russell 2000 in a precarious situation and vulnerable to near-term weakness.
USD/CHF:BULLISH CHANNEL | PRICE IS GROWING FAST⚡️ Everyone, I hope you'll Appreciate our Price action Analysis !
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AVAX DAILY CHART - ALL IMPORTANT PRICES!Hey everyone
Today i show you my AVAX Daily Chart Analysis.
On the Chart you can see all important levels for AVAX on the daily timeframe.
INFO:
AVAX currently is ranging between 98-96 and 80-76. This is easy tradeable with short stop losses.
EUR USD The price broke the trend for the second time. I expect it not to enter the descending channel again, touch the down trend, and break the current resistance.
LTC/USDT is finally in UP TREND !!! On the LTC/USDT chart, I see a red important area of daily support and also a green area that shows daily resistance.
We also see the broken trend line H4 and now the broken trend line from chart D1.
In addition, the green trend line from the H1 graph shows us that the current trend is UP TREND, so it is advisable to switch to lower time frames and look for a suitable entry into the position.
We will only enter the position if all the conditions of our Price Action strategy are met.
Thank you for your attention. Alex_UCT
ETH/USDT finally in UP TREND now.I found today's setup on the ETH / USDT pair, where an uptrend has finally formed and therefore we have a chance to look for a suitable place to enter the Long position.
The current price is under Point Of Control, which is the current fair price, so we have another reason why the price could go up.
We are always looking for a suitable place to enter on a lower time frame and we enter based on the conditions of our Price Action Trading Strategy.
Have a nice day and Happy trading, Alex_UCT
BAND/USDT goes up to the Point Of Control!The price of the BAND is reflected from the current trend line and goes up to the POC level, which acts as a magnet and also serves as a very reliable Support/Resistance, it is a fair price, it is a place where the market likes to return.
We will switch to a lower time frame and look for a suitable place to enter. Entry into the position must be based on the conditions of our strategy.
Happy trading, Alex_UCT
LTCUSDT : Trading inside current triangle. Our today's Academy setup is found on the LTC / USDT pair.
On the time frame H1 we see a nice triangle and also the current trend line inside the triangle.
If this line is broken, the price will test the bottom line of the triangle.
Otherwise, when the price respects the trend line, we can go in the direction of Long.
However, we determine this on the chart in the lower time frame, ideally M15. More information will be shared with our students and followers.
Thank you for your attention and have a nice day and Happy trading.
@Alex_UCT
FOREX: NZDCHF - M pattern and our Limit OrderWe are waiting for a confluence of two factors where the S/R zone breaks around the location of the current trend line.
Our limit order is set at 0.62499
This whole idea is supported by the M pattern, where there is a price return to the Neck line.
M pattenr is seen in a higher time frame (W1), which gives us an even greater probability of success.
Happy trading, Alex_UCT
DOT: We are just below WEEKLY Pivot Point. Opportunity is here!The DOT / USDT price is just below Pivot Point Weekly, which is a very strong level.
If the Pivot Point breaks, it is possible to open a trade in the Long direction.
If the breakthrough is rejected, we trade the Short position.
Point Of Control levels, which show fair market prices, are also important.
The opening of positions will also depend on trends, so we need to follow the rules of our strategy. We are the traders, not stupid gamblers. Patience is the key!
Happy trading, Alex_UCT
