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Telson

Bollinger Bands Bands with Telson T8Indicator idea based on classic Bollinger bands and Telson T8 moving average. The indicator detects Bollinger bands narrowing which should predict a move to a direction, up or down. NOTE: You need to define in the indicator settings ("Percent Narrow") the percentage between the upper and lower bands that would be highlighted. For example: if you set 5%, the indicator will highlight the parts that the upper and lower bands are less than 5% compare the current price (usually close price, but you can define otherwise) Use the Telson T8 to determinate the trend/direction of the move. Telson T8 changes based on if close price is above the T8 (green) or close price is below the T8 (red).
by dman103
NZDCAD H&S Formation - Long-Term Price SpeculationWe found some interesting moves on the NZDCAD pair earlier this week. A clear Head and Shoulders formation that is looking to complete on the Daily chart accompanied by a strong RSI Divergence signal got our attention, and this is the idea on analysis today. We are at the 0.96100's region facing a really strong resistance that was solidly broken only once, on the Head move of the price and a Long Term trend line was broken and being tested as resistance. We will be monitoring the price action as the days will go by, but, our feeling is going short as soon as we find additional confirmation and/or indications of a clean break-out of the 0.93020 price tag. Theory suggests the expected performance of the H&S formation (neckline to Top of head) to be around 624pips (!!!) so when applied, it falls right around another strong/serious previous structure level (0.86780) which makes us pretty confident that we can achieve it. Our suggestion for entry points TP and SL are listed below, we recommend to suit to your style and/or further analysis. Entry Price: 0.93020 Take Profit: 0.86779 Stop Loss: 0.95764 Let's wait it out... All comments and feedback is highly appreciated
Short
by Telson
2
GBPCAD Possible Cypher formation and long-term price speculationI can see a possible Cypher formation on the GBPCAD pair. Bearing in mind the market conditions (oversold) as well as the long term support level at 1.66000 (complying also with the falling wedge formation), I trust the Cypher pattern to be completed, trade short with take profit targets on the 38.2% and 61.8% Fib retracement levels of CD leg. In this case I believe that a secondary target may be hard to get due to previous structure support levels. This trade need to be monitored but I believe that the price will go long (again) as soon as the price hit the profit target(s) of the Cypher (or around 1.67600's), hopefully break structure and perform as expected (see price ranges) to reach 1.72800's. Decisions at reversal points should be re-checked taking into account current market conditions. Trade according to you style. Feedback is much appreciated. Thank you @tntsunrise for the original idea, I cross-checked and provided my analysis.
Long
by Telson
AUDUSD Cypher Pattern Long-TermLooking at the Daily chart of the AUDUSD pair, we noticed the formation of a Cypher pattern to be completed at 0.76409 price level. Take Profits are set to 0.382 and 0.618 of the CD leg and Stop Losses above X-point level. I will be waiting to see a confirmation of the down move by looking at indicators as well as candle and/or previous structure formations. Note that RSI already shows overbought conditions and a small divergence, so it seems wise to look for clues at lower time frames also (H4). Lets see how this will play out. All comments and feedback are highly appreciated.
Short
by Telson
1
EURJPY Rising Wedge Break-out Performance I have been monitoring the formation of a rising wedge on the EURJPY pair. Formation performance has been estimated at around 260pips and I will be entering a short pending order as soon as I receive confirmation for the break-out. I can also see the confirmation of a double top formation (or a 2618 play) in the making should the price move further South which strengthen our confidence on the idea. It is a long move so I am not expecting to get there at one go. A retrace is also expected to test the broken support, so place your order according to your trading style since scalping opportunities may occur. let's wait it out. All feedback and comments are highly appreciated.
Short
by Telson
2
EURUSD Box Break-out Performmance, Long-Term Price SpeculationLooking over the Weekly chart for the EURUSD pair we can identify an attempted break-out of the rectangular formation, expecting a continuation of the downtrend dating back to May 2014. The above is also supported from a shooting star on May 2016 (to my eyes at least), clearly indicating a short move, and we have been looking at the price tag going South since then. Check out the performance possible long-term profits with a previous structure support coming on low 0.99000's levels. We would also expect a retracement move to retest the broken support but trust to become resistance in due time. All feedback is highly appreciated.
Short
by Telson
2
EURUSD Falling Wedge Formation Break-out Performance Based on our previous long-term analysis (please see links below), our general feeling regarding the EURUSD pair is going short. But, as we mentioned on the original idea, we would expect the price to retrace and retest the previous structure support that was broken a few days back on the 1.05700's region. We believe that this falling wedge formation may indicate the possible retrace for some extra pips. Please check previous structure for clues on supports and resistances and set TP and SL according to your trading style. The RSI indicator shows oversold conditions, still, personally I would look out for further confirmation prior to entering a long order. The above if a speculative theory that also suits our previous analysis... how convenient :) Let's see if this works out. All feedback and comments are highly appreciated.
Long
by Telson
2
GBPCAD Break-out Performance Speculation (Long-Term) - Part IIAs described in the original idea, we still believe on the long move of the price due to the formation of the falling wedge. The bottom support has moved short a few pips but the formation is still valid (to my eye). Please monitor to avoid a false break move, be wise to wait and confirm the move using other means, timeframe and/or indicators. The stop losses should be fair, under the previous structure support at the 1.63900 region while take profits are set according to expected performance and previous structure resistances. Adjust to fit your trading style. All feedback is appreciated.
Long
by Telson
EURJPY going shortLooking onto the Daily charts it is reasonable to identify the funnel (within the triangle). Seems that it has already performed as expected since the price broke the structure (see price range measurements). By indications on RSI as well as additional structure trendlines and support/resistance levels make me think that price will move South. Asking price 122.100 (-ish or higher) Stop Loss 124.700 Take Profit 116.000 (-ish) Make sure that you adjust your TP & SL limits to your trading style, The ones provided above are mostly for reference. Please let me know what you think about this. Telson
Short
by Telson
2
EURGBP Rising wedge formation & RSI DivergenceMonitoring the EURGBP pair we have identified an RSI divergence on the Hourly chart. We anticipate to see a retest of the 0.84260's level after the false break out (see market conditions) followed by a break-out of the rising wedge formation with even bigger profits. Profits and stop losses are set according to previous structure supports with the latter being fair to balance our RRR. Since we all sometimes live in our own bubble, all feedback and comments are highly appreciated.
Short
by Telson
1
AUDUSD Break-out performanceLooking back at the bigger picture of this break-out, there could be two additional targets for the price to go lower. Looking closely, the formation of another rising wedge ( ) over the last two weeks with Stochastic indicating an already overbought condition. Resistance should be around the 0.74950 mark although there is also an advanced pattern completion a bit higher than this, I would not be surprised if price gets to 0.75400-ish before it goes South. Intermediate and Max targets are set using the bigger structure patterns. The longterm trendline acts as resistance (blue dash line) while the pip count goes off the roof. I trust you this should be a longer term trade, quite possible but still to be closely monitored for changes. Let me know what you think about this.
Short
by Telson
1
AUDUSD - Possible Gartley completion and false break-outA Gartley pattern can be completed at the 0.75433 level so, we use this as an entry point and place TP at the 38.2% and 61.8% of the AD leg at 0.74537 and 0.73984 respectively. SL around the 0.75900 region or higher. Adjust TP and SL to your liking and/or trade attitude, the above are just suggestions. This is in line with a previous idea on the formation and break-out of a rising wedge. (see links below) This long move is considered a false break-out. All feedback is appreciated.
Short
by Telson
2
EURJPY Break-out Performanced (Part II - Continuation)Breaking down the long-term short of EURJPY as described in the " EURJPY going short " idea (see below) as well as the initial break-out performance, we have come to witness a possible continuation in a similar fashion. Note that the long-term trendline forming the top wedge (based at 121.977) is still strong for a new-forming, even-bigger wedge, with the 120.806 price tag being the new base, which is the opening price on BRExit offering first "serious" structure support. The above is also supported by market conditions on Daily charts that show real lack of buying power (seriously overbought) by means of RSI/Stochastic. Conveniently enough :D the above speculation will conclude 1st performance target as described on the " EURJPY Break-out Performance " idea (see below) that was nearly missed at first go. There will be some resistance from EUR, we are in for a bumpy SHORT ride (scalping opportunities?) but, for the time being, I cannot foresee anything that may reverse back to LONG (trend not just a retrace). I would expect a solid retrace (min. 118.000) of that straight bull trend of the past few weeks, over the next few weeks before it shoots back to the stars. Lets wait it out... Since sometimes we all live in our small fantasy bubbles so, all feedback is appreciated.
Short
by Telson
1
EURJPY Break-out PerformanceLooking a few days back, there is a excellent morning star signal that does not quite come through until the news today where the 123.000 level was retested (false break). Looking at the structures performance there is still a bit left to go with open retracement opportunities (scalping short-term buys). Price expected to reach the 120.800-120.750 range where the should be some support for the buyers from older structure (Opening Price on 24/06/2016). Having passed this I do not see any reason not to reach the 120.000 -ish level. Hope you made your pips today.
Short
by Telson