Tencent Holdings (TCEHY) Analysis Company Overview: Tencent Holdings OTC:TCEHY is poised for growth as the regulatory environment in China becomes more favorable, particularly in the gaming sector. The resumption of gaming license approvals has revitalized the market, allowing Tencent to launch new titles that resonate with consumers.
Key Catalysts:
Regulatory Recovery: The easing of regulatory scrutiny around gaming licenses has set the stage for Tencent to reinvigorate its gaming portfolio.
Success of Dungeon & Fighter Mobile: The release of Dungeon & Fighter Mobile has been a standout success, generating $270 million in iOS revenue within the first 30 days. This performance highlights strong consumer demand and effective marketing strategies.
Future Revenue Potential: Analysts forecast that Dungeon & Fighter Mobile could generate between RMB 15-18 billion in 2024, positioning it as Tencent’s most commercially successful game in five years, which bodes well for the company's overall revenue growth.
Investment Outlook: Bullish Outlook: We are bullish on Tencent above $47.00-$48.00, reflecting confidence in its ability to capitalize on the resurgent gaming market. Upside Potential: Our target for TCEHY is $70.00-$72.00, driven by the anticipated success of new game launches and a healthier regulatory landscape.
🚀 TCEHY—Unlocking Growth in Gaming and Beyond. #Gaming #Tencent #MarketRecovery
Tencent
Tencent Holdings LtdIs Tencent Stock a Buy Now?
Tencent posted its third quarter earnings report on Nov. 16. The Chinese tech giant's revenue fell 2% year over year to 140.1 billion yuan ($19.8 billion), which represented its second consecutive quarter of declining revenue since its IPO in 2004. Its net profit rose 1% to 39.9 billion yuan ($5.6 billion). On an adjusted basis, which excludes its investments and other one-time items, its net profit grew 2% to 32.3 billion yuan ($4.5 billion). Those growth rates seem anemic, but Tencent's stock had already been cut in half over the past two years amid concerns about China's tightening regulations, slowing economic growth, and COVID19 lockdowns. So is it the right time to take the contrarian view and buy Tencent as a turnaround play? Let's review its core businesses and valuations to decide.
Tencent generated 31% of its third quarter revenue from its video game business. Domestic games, which include its blockbuster game Honor of Kings, accounted for 73% of that total. The remaining 27% came from overseas hits like League of Legends, Valorant, and PUBG Mobile.Its domestic gaming revenue fell 7% year over year, representing its third consecutive quarter of shrinking revenue, as it grappled with tighter playtime restrictions for minors in China over the past year. Those restrictions also coincided with a temporary suspension on new video game approvals in China, which started last July and ended this April.Its international gaming revenue rose 3% year over year, accelerating from its 1% decline in the second quarter, as new games like Tower of Fantasy and Goddess of Victory: Nikke attracted new players. Unfortunately, its overseas growth still couldn't offset its declining domestic revenue.
As a result, Tencent's total VAS (value-added service) revenue which includes its gaming divisions, social media platforms, and streaming media subscriptions -- declined by 3% in the third quarter but still accounted for more than half of its top line. This core business might gradually stabilize as Tencent expands its international gaming business, but it will likely remain under intense pressure as long as the Chinese government continues to scrutinize the gaming industry.
200$ was one of the biggest support and great opportunity to buying the dip. 300-320$ is a big resistance level for tencent and if bulls win that battle then 350$ is next but
can we back 250 or even 200$ again? YES
FXI - iShares China Large-Cap ETF... FXI stock is a strong buy due to China's rapid economic growth, diverse portfolio of leading companies, and potential for high returns. Investing in FXI offers exposure to China's expanding market.
9988.HK
Alibaba Group Holding Limited 9.72%
0700.HK
Tencent Holdings Limited 8.73%
3690.HK
Meituan 8.09%
00939
00939 7.08%
01398
01398 4.74%
03988
03988 4.26%
9999.HK
NetEase, Inc. 4.00%
1810.HK
Xiaomi Corporation 3.77%
9618.HK
JD.com, Inc. 3.73%
01211
01211 3.51%
FXI stock is a strong buy because while the US and Europe have experienced an incredible bull run, China's market hasn't seen the same gains. This offers a unique opportunity for potential growth and high returns.
Tencent (700): Ambitious Targets - Preparing for a BreakoutFor Tencent Holdings Ltd. on the Hong Kong Exchange, we're seeing a scenario where the subordinate Wave (2) has likely concluded between the 61.8% and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement levels around 260 HKD. We anticipate a breakout from this range heading upwards, ideally reaching the target zone for Wave (3) between 227% and 361.8% Fibonacci extensions, which translates to approximately 870 HKD to 1100 HKD. Though this target is quite ambitious, it remains plausible in the long-term scenario for Tencent.
On the 4-hour chart for Tencent Holdings, we are observing a subordinate Wave 1 structure, which should be formed as a 5-wave structure heading upwards. The wave ((iii)) in this sequence has likely concluded at the high-volume node edge, fitting neatly between the 227.2% and 261.8% extension levels for Wave ((iii)).
For the anticipated Wave ((iv)), we expect a more pronounced sell-off to between the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels, reaching down to our point of control, indicating significant buying interest at these levels. We'll place our stop-loss below the 61.8% Fibonacci level and beneath the maximum level where Wave ((iv)) can feasibly fall without invalidating our scenario. A brief dip into the level of Wave ((i)) is tolerable, but a prolonged stay would challenge the validity of our setup.
We've also respected the trendline well, attempting a retest that should hold if valid, hence not anticipating a further drop. Our upward target is initially set at 416 HKD, beyond which we will look for new entries for a superior Wave 2 and continue to adjust our stop-loss from Wave ((iv)) accordingly.
Tencent Set to Release 'Dungeon and Fighter' Mobile Game in May Tencent Holdings, ( NYSE:TME ) the Chinese multinational giant, has announced the release of its highly anticipated mobile game, 'Dungeon and Fighter: Origin'. Developed by Korean company Nexon, the game is a mobile adaptation of the popular computer game 'Dungeon and Fighter', which is considered to be one of the world's most profitable computer games.
This announcement comes after seven years of development, during which the game initially received government approval for release in 2017, before having its approval revoked. However, Tencent was granted a new license for the game in February of this year.
The official release date for 'Dungeon and Fighter: Origin' has been set for May 21. The action game is expected to be a significant addition to Tencent's mobile game portfolio, given its immense popularity and profitability.
Technical Outlook
Tencent Holdings, ( NYSE:TME ) stock is up 2.29% prior the fundamentals trading above the 200-day Moving Average (MA) with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 58. The stock has consolidated in price for the 2nd time starting a new rising trend after the current consolidation faced at $11.76 pivot point.
TENCENT Most optimal level to sell long-termTencent Holding LTD (TCTZF) has been trading within a long-term Channel Down since the January 30 2023 High. Such +1 year consistency is hard to overlook technically, especially since the price got rejected last week not just on the Channel Down top (Lower Highs trend-line), but also on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line).
It has to be said that despite the rejection and the fact that the 1D MA200 has been essentially the Resistance since the August 10 2023 bearish break-out, it did manage a closing above it for the first time in such a long time-frame but the last Thursday - Friday strong rejection, potentially shows that the market hasn't shaken off the long-term bearish sentiment. On top of that, the 1D RSI got rejected exactly on its Resistance, the 70.00 overbought barrier, which is where it got rejected right before the last Lower High on November 14 2023.
As a result we turn bearish again on this stock, targeting $32.00, which represents a -21.12% decline from the top, the lowest decline it had within this +1 year Channel Down on the March 15 2023 Low. In fact all Bearish Legs have been pretty symmetrical, ranging from -21.12% to -24.85%.
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Tencent's Rocket Ride: Heading for 1338 HKD?
For Tencent Holdings, we currently believe we are in an overarching Wave III, which should be created with a 5-wave structure upwards. This should naturally extend far beyond the Wave I level at the all-time high of 715 HKD. We anticipate a rise to at least 1338 HKD for this overarching Wave III. Wave II concluded at 188.6 HKD. Zooming in, we see that we are about to complete Waves (1) and (3) and soon enter into the Wave (3). Wave (2), as we expect, might dip slightly further, to 241 HKD. However, we are convinced that we could be in a long upward trend. Therefore, we do not want to be stopped out prematurely, as it would be quite unnecessary. A double bottom at 188 HKD cannot be ruled out. Thus, we place our entry at the 50% extension for the very subordinate Wave ((v)) and just above the 78.6% retracement level for the subordinate Wave (2). This would create what's known as a Fibonacci retracement cluster, where there should be a significant buying potential. We will see how it unfolds in the coming weeks or days. Should there be a rise above 297 HKD, we may need to reconsider our stance.
Tencent breakout first time since Jan 2023 -Target 366.40W Formation has formed recently on Tencent Holdings.
And where the price broke above the Neckline is also where the price has broken it's downtrend for the first time since January 2023.
This deems a very positive sign for buying and demand to push the price up.
Nature of the trade analysis is High Probability Too.
Price>20MA and Price>200MA
Target 366.40
Looks great!
TME Tencent Music Entertainment Group Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of TME Tencent Music Entertainment Group prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 11usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-4-19,
for a premium of approximately $0.43.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Tencent: Turn around! 🔄Tencent remains in our magenta-colored (long) Target Zone, which extends from HK$302.60 on the upper edge to HK$237.40 on the lower edge. It is still our primary assumption that the stock will establish another marginally lower low within this price range. Once the wave (2) in magenta has been completed, we expect the price to rise above the resistance at HK$416.60. At this point, however, it should be noted once again that the (minimum) requirements for the wave (2) correction, which the stock has been dealing with for almost a year now, were met with the approach of the Zone - as a result, a direct breakout to the upside would be quite conceivable from a technical point of view. Until then, the Target Zone continues to offer the opportunity to position oneself on the long side.
Tencent Short: Target $246.Firstly, apologies for coughing around the 8th min (too much chocolate).
Basically this analysis builds on top of the HSI and China A50 analysis that I've done previously and that I expect Tencent to move down to $246 and hits the lower channel line as well as 1x of wave (1) distance by 2023 year end.
HSI Short: Target 15000 till EOY 2023My previous analysis of the Hang Seng Index was invalidated. And now I've done a revamp of the wave counts for 2023.
This is the summary:
1. Hang Seng will continue to fall either till Christmas or EOY.
2. Target support, or end of correction, will be 14980-15100. Look out for this support zone.
$TENCENT shows sign of rebound with bottom formed$TENCENT shows sign of price bottoming on last Thursday with high volume supporting the price from going down lower. (Yellow square box)
Based on our analysis, the rebound signals further sets in with price recover more than 50% of the Friday morning price fall. This indicating demand is coming back in after 2 weeks retrace & selling pressure easing. Which could lead to a price rebound in the coming weeks.
Our trading method: we are looking into Bull CBBC on this potential short term rebound.
#hkex #supplydemandtrading #supportresistancestrategy #cbbc #highriskhighreturn #stocktrading
#NPN Naspers range bound - holding bottom of boxNaspers has been trading in a very sideways fashion over since the beginning of the year with support evident in the 2920-2980 area with resistance at 3400 - 3570 on the upside. Most likely with a nibble at the bottom of the range which looks to be holding for now
PROSUS showing upside to come to R1661.98 after W BreakW Formation formed after it's been in consolidation for a while now.
The previous trend was up, so the conditions have lined up as a high probability trade.
The price has broken above and looks to be heading up.
7>21>200
RSI >50
Target R1661.98
SMC Sell Side Liquidity Order Block just below the Second leg of the W Formation. This is where Smart Money has been buying the price up.
ABOUT:
Prosus is a global consumer internet group headquartered in the Netherlands, with a primary listing on Euronext Amsterdam and a secondary listing on the JSE.
It was established in 2019 as a spin-off of Naspers, a South African media and technology company.
Prosus is one of the largest technology investors in the world, focusing on sectors such as online classifieds, food delivery, payments and fintech, education technology, and more.
The company has a diverse portfolio of investments in leading technology companies globally, including significant stakes in Tencent Holdings, Delivery Hero, and Mail.ru Group.
Prosus is known for its strong presence in emerging markets, particularly in countries such as India, China, Russia, Brazil, and South Africa.
Its most notable investment is a 31% stake in Tencent, a Chinese multinational conglomerate and one of the world's largest internet companies.
As of its latest annual report in March 2023, Prosus had investments in over 200 companies across more than 90 countries.
Naspers UPDATE on its way to the target at R4,000Falling Wedge Formation is evident on the daily chart.
The price is still consolidating around the apex.
We need the price to break up and out of it to confirm upside to come.
7=21
Price >200
RSI>50
Target R4,000
ABOUT THE COMPANY 2023
Naspers was founded in 1915 as a newspaper publisher in South Africa.
The company is headquartered in Cape Town, South Africa.
Naspers is one of the largest media and technology companies in the world.
The company's most valuable asset is its stake in Tencent Holdings, a Chinese multinational conglomerate that operates several popular social media and gaming platforms.
Naspers is the largest shareholder in Tencent, owning approximately 31% of the company.
In addition to its stake in Tencent, Naspers also has significant investments in other internet and technology companies, including Mail.ru, Delivery Hero, and Prosus.
Naspers' core businesses include online classifieds, payments and fintech, food delivery, and education technology.
The company operates in over 120 countries.
Naspers was one of the early investors in the Chinese e-commerce giant, Alibaba, and made a substantial profit when the company went public in 2014.
The company also owns the South African online retailer, Takealot.
Naspers has a market capitalization of over $100 billion as of April 2023.
In 2019, Naspers spun off its international internet assets into a separate company called Prosus, which is listed on the Euronext Amsterdam exchange.
Tencent major 4.5% drop sending a break in structure Tencent break in uptrend structure - Bearish
Tencent has eventually broken below the Uptrend structure after fantastic upside.
This means, the price is now in free fall and is more likely to touch the previous support (brim level of the last Cup and Handle ).
21<7 price>200 - Reversal
RSI <50 - Bearish
Target 312
I just did an analysis on Naspers which we spoke about how Tencent has the correlation.
As Naspers correlates with Tencent and Prosus... We saw a sluggish market in Asia session with the banking holiday effect in America.
Hong Kong stocks slump as Chinese tech giants step up rivalries, HSBC in focus as market await corporate earnings boost. The Hang Seng Index declined 1.7 per cent to 20,529.49 at the close of Tuesday trading, the biggest drop in over a week. The Tech Index tumbled 3.6 per cent while the Shanghai Composite Index added 0.5 per cent. The benchmark index has lost nearly 5 per cent in the past two weeks as hedge funds withdrew from the market. With Tencent dropping 4.5% this is why we saw a large breakaway gap with Naspers.
Caution is needed with such volatility .
Naspers break in uptrend structure - BearishAfter a fantastic long trade with Naspers, it's eventually broken below the Uptrend structure.
This means, the price is now in free fall and is more likely to touch the previous support (brim level of the last Cup and Handle).
7=21 price>200 - Reversal
RSI <50 - Bearish
Target R2,766.00
As always it is correlating with Tencent and Prosus... We saw a sluggish market in Asia session with the banking holiday effect in America.
Hong Kong stocks slump as Chinese tech giants step up rivalries, HSBC in focus as market await corporate earnings boost. The Hang Seng Index declined 1.7 per cent to 20,529.49 at the close of Tuesday trading, the biggest drop in over a week. The Tech Index tumbled 3.6 per cent while the Shanghai Composite Index added 0.5 per cent. The benchmark index has lost nearly 5 per cent in the past two weeks as hedge funds withdrew from the market. With Tencent dropping 4.5% this is why we saw a large breakaway gap with Naspers.
Caution is needed with such volatility.