Tencent Analysis 25.11.2021Hello Traders,
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Tencent
Is it time to invest in China?KWEB is a China technology based ETF.
Top 10 holdings by weight:
Tencent Holdings ~ 10.62%
Alibaba Group Holding ~ 10.32%
JD.com ~ 7.21%
Meituan ~ 6.99%
Pinduoduo Inc ~ 6.97%
NetEase Inc ~ 4.71%
Baidu Inc ~ 4.27%
Bilibili Inc ~ 3.83%
Trip.com Group ~ 3.82%
JD Health International ~ 3.32%
Fundamental Analysis
China’s stock market pullback this year has been in line with the average annual drawdown (approximately 30%); historically, this volatility has tended to produce double-digit annualized gains.
In terms of seasonality, over the past 20 years, October has been amongst the strongest months for the Chinese stock market.
Technical Analysis
The 50sma has been tested as resistance 3 times before. A breakout above the 50sma could signal a significant change in trend.
The RSI has shown a positive divergence, as the last three times, we tested the horizontal line (blue arrow), in each case RSI is showing higher lows.
Tencent Holdings Limited - 700• Sharpe correction to the 23.6 Fibonacci Retracement since February 2021 (weekly chart)
• Building up an ascending triangle in the daily and weekly chart
• For a further upside the stock has to close the gap at 512.6/529
• If the stock is able to close the gap, new price target at 606
Tencent's Profit Down 2% YoY for the First Time in 10 YearsThe drop was a result of regulatory crackdowns on media and restrictions on teenagers' gaming time.
Despite enhancing its parental control policy and constrained gaming time for teenagers (from 6.4% in Q3 2020 to 0.7% in Q3 2021), Tencent saw its domestic gaming service revenue increase by 5% and 20% for the overseas markets. However, Tencent's top moneymaker – mobile gaming – has seen its growth slow down for three consecutive quarters.
A series of media crackdowns in China has been influential on Tencent's advertising income. The YoY revenue grew only 5% due to the political impact on industries, such as education and insurance. In addition to the latest regulatory change, media advertising revenue primarily from the Tencent news app has dropped 4%.
Meanwhile, Tencent's free cash flow decreased by 14%.
Tencent Music Sees Rise in Revenue - Q3 2021 Financials ReleasedOnline music paying users jumped 37.7% to 71.2 million from a year earlier, while the figure increased by 5 million from the prior quarter.
The total revenue of Tencent music in the third quarter was CNY 7.81 billion, an increase of 3.0% over the same period.
The net profit was CNY 1.06 billion, a decrease of about 35% over the same period.
The financial report also pointed out that in the first three quarters of 2021, the total revenue of the firm was CNY 23.63 billion, an increase of about 13.5% over the same period last year.
The revenue from online music services was CNY 2.89 billion, a year-on-year increase of 24.3%.
The revenue from music subscription services was CNY 1.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 30.2%. This growth was due to the record number of online music paying users, reaching 71.2 million, a year-on-year increase of 37.7%.
The revenue from social entertainment services and other businesses was CNY 4.92 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 6.4%. Tencent music said that this was due to the temporary loss of some mild users to other pan entertainment platforms, resulting in a year-on-year decrease in the company's online music and social entertainment Mau.
The results come amid a regulatory crackdown in China on sectors from tech to education and property. The company's parent, Tencent Holdings, said in August it had ended all exclusive music copyright agreements after regulators barred it from such deals.
Tencent Meeting Held 4 Bn Meetings in 2020, Hit 200 Mn UsersThe outbreak of COVID-19 in 2020 damaged many sectors. The videoconferencing market was among the winners.
Tencent Meeting (global version – VooV Meeting) took its second mover advantage and tightly followed its global counterpart – Zoom. Released in late December of 2019, Tencent Meeting, although coming out seven years later than Zoom, has now become the most used video conferencing app in China. According to Tencent's vice president Yuepeng Qiu, Tencent Meeting now attains (source in Chinese) 200 million users and held more than 4 billion meetings in 2020.
At the time Tencent Meeting was presented, no one could predict its future impact in China. From its bare-bone functionalities and dated UI in earlier versions (even today 26% of its user ratings are 1-star), we could speculate that this app initially wasn't the tech giant's top priority.
Resulting from its unexcepted success, Tencent Meeting now joins the Tencent enterprise services ecosystem. The following months will see more integration between Tencent Meeting and Enterprise WeChat.
Tencent Preparing New Gaming Studio to Facilitate MetaverseTencent is looking to prepare for the next stage of internet games with a new studio that focuses on metaverse.
Tencent Holdings is assembling an international team for its new gaming studio that will be under TiMi Studio Group, a subsidiary of Tencent. Rumor has it that the company sent out an internal letter indicating the establishment of new 'F1'. According to the company's official career page, there are also over 40 new positions available for the new studio.
While a representative of TiMi said on Wednesday that the company is dedicated to developing AAA games and does not focus on 'metaverse', a company employee said that the new studio is essentially about the metaverse and development of metaverse-like games.
Despite the officials' attempts to try to stay off the topic of the 'metaverse', Tencent's record shows that the company had filed to register numerous metaverse-related trademarks, including 'Kings Metaverse', 'QQ Music Metaverse', and 'QQ Metaverse'.
Tencent currently runs the largest video gaming business by revenue. The company owns Riot, which has hit games like League of Legends and Valorant. In addition, TiMi, Tencent's subsidiary, generated over USD 10 billion last year with popular games like Honor of Kings and Call of Duty: Mobile.
This article was first published by ChineseAlpha.
Bearish on Tencent Music Entertainment. TMEWe are not in the business of getting every prediction right, no one ever does and that is not the aim of the game. The Fibonacci targets are highlighted in purple with invalidation in red. Fibonacci goals, it is prudent to suggest, are nothing more than mere fractally evident and therefore statistically likely levels that the market will go to. Having said that, the market will always do what it wants and always has a mind of its own. Therefore, none of this is financial advice, so do your own research and rely only on your own analysis. Trading is a true one man sport. Good luck out there and stay safe!
Technical Analysis Of 15 Stocks!Hi,
Again, I would like to liquidate my old debts considering stocks analysis. At the time, there was relatively little interest in mentioning your favorite stocks, it was quite impossible to make a solid "top" of that. I solved it that way, I put in this idea some stocks you mentioned here that were at least worth analyzing and some of the choices that I am currently interested in.
You should find some ideas on what to look for, lots of stocks from different sectors so, pick it or skip it:
1) AMD - Advanced Micro Devices
2) AAPL - Apple
3) BABA - Alibaba Group Holdings
4) RYA - Ryanair
5) LUV - Southwest Airlines
6) MCFE - McAfee
7) IBM - International Business Machines
8) NOBI - Nobia AB
9) PENN - Penn National Gaming
10) EA - Electronic Arts
11) TCEHY - Tencent
12) TTWO - Take-Two Interactive Software
13) STX - Seagate Technology
14) GM - General Motors
15) STNE - StoneCo
Hopefully, you found something interesting to go deeper about your research. Definitely do your own research, don't follow blindly!
Also, you can share your stock (ONE) in the comments and if I saw something there I can replay it!
Regards,
Vaido
Tencent Responds as CCTV Exposes the Account Renting ProblemSo far, the gaming giant has sued or sent letters to more than 20 account trading platforms and several e-commerce platforms, demanding them to stop all relevant services.
The rates for account renting services for Honor of Kings – which usually cost CNY 33 per two hours – have been emerging on the Internet and, in response, Tencent Game, the gaming sector under the tech giant Tencent – developer of the MOBA game Honor of Kings – claimed that account leasing and selling seriously damaged the game's real name system and protection mechanism for minors. By far, having sued or sent out letters to more than 20 platforms, it demanded a full stop of all relevant services.
On August 30, 2021, the National Press and Publication Administration issued a 'notice' to prevent minors from falling addicted to online games. The 'notice' states that all online gaming enterprises can provide minors, on Friday, Saturday, Sunday and legal holidays only, with one-hour services max (specifically from 20:00 to 21:00) and offering online gaming services to minors in any form at any other time is prohibited.
Yet, on the evening of September 6, CCTV, the state-controlled outlet, outlined in its news broadcast how a grey industrial chain has emerged on the Internet that rents and sells game accounts, which enables the minors to play online games without restrictions. On the account renting platforms, users can trade accounts of a variety of popular games including Honor of Kings and PUBG.
So far, the owner of Honor of Kings has called on relevant departments to issue corresponding laws and regulations to strictly control the account leasing and selling problem.
Despite the issuing of the 'notice', according to surveys, the policy did not have a material impact on the revenue of gaming companies. Previously, Tencent disclosed in the 2021 interim report that players under 16 accounted for only 2.6% of the total game revenue, of which only 0.3% came from players under 12.
Analysts from Jefferies Group predicted that about 5% of Tencent's game revenue came from minors under the age of 18. In other words, if the game business accounts for about 60% of the gaming tycoon's total revenue, the new regulation's impact would be barely 3%.
Tencent Stock Hello Traders,
After China's stranglehold on video games HKEX:700 was one of the companies that suffered the most.
If you look at the weekly calendar it seems to have made support in this area.
Post your idea/analysis below for discussion.
Thank you all for your support.
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China Market Finally Bottomed After a Prolonged Panic Sell Off?Due to the repeated news of Chinese government's crackdown on the monopolistic practices of Chinese Technology companies that worried some investors on the long term impact of investing in these companies and the we have seen a prolonged sell off by both retailers and institutional investors in many of the Chinese Tech companies namely Alibaba ( HKEX:9988 and Tencent HKEX:700 . However, the good news is that the impact of these policies are likely to have minimal impact on the business model of these companies targeted and also from the technical aspect, we have seen TVC:HSI hitting a confluence horizontal and long term trendline support line with bullish candlesticks formed over the past few trading days. Moreover, signs of capitulation can be seen in big constituents of HSI such as NYSE:BABA , thus further suggesting that a reversal might be around the corner. In retrospect, many of these great Chinese companies are very undervalued served as a great opportunity for investors to hop on and catch some great profits ahead.
A quantitative approach - Is Alibaba and Chinese big tech a buy?One of the big macro focal points of late has been the extreme weakness in Chinese internet and tech stocks, with some even saying this space is uninvestable. Last week’s moves by China’s State Administration for Market Regulation ( www.reuters.com) may be seen by many as fair, but the measures increase the number of forceful and sustained regulatory curbs imposed by Chinese authorities in recent months.
As any investor will tell you, when you invest in a company with such monopolistic and strong price maker qualities, especially in a regime where there is a move to a “Common Prosperity”, regulation is always the biggest risk to sentiment. Certainly, any equity trader that has seen the incredible loss of market cap in Tencent, Alibaba (BABA), Baidu, and others will attest to that now.
Are we set to see a mean reversion rally?
The level of conversation around these names, and whether the drop now represents a buying opportunity for long-term investors and traders has clearly ramped up. I would be fine with owning as a long-term play at current levels, but I have been most keen to explore whether after a 50% decline if there was a statistical trading case that suggested a short-term mean-reversion bounce is coming. I have paid particular focus on Alibaba (ticker: BABA).
Initially, I ran a scan of our complete universe of c.900 global equity CFDs for any 40% or more below the broker's consensus price target. I see 12 on the list, with BABA 42% below the consensus target price of $271 – I see the stock trades on 17.7x full-year earnings and 14x 2022 earnings – if I didn’t believe BABA was due a raft of earnings downgrades, I’d argue this is insanely ‘cheap’, in fact, it’s never been lower, but I rarely look at valuation for trading equity CFDs.
Perhaps more interestingly, having fallen 50%, BABA is now one of only 9 US-listed stocks trading 30% or more below its 200-day moving average – It was 35% above the 200-day MA in October, now it resides at a record discount to the average. In fact, this is very close to 3 standard deviations from the 200-day moving average. The only time price has breached the 3 standard deviation band occurred once before in October 2018 and subsequently marked a bullish turning point, with the stock rallying 29% over the coming 36 days.
We can also see price close to the lower Keltner band – here, I have really stretched out the settings using a 20-day ATR length, 3 times ATR and 10-period average.
I’ve then scanned for stocks in our full universe that have had a run of 8 down days (or more) in a row and that have a 3-day RSI of less than 5 – of our 900 odd equity CFDs, I get BABA and Resolute Mining, in fact, the 3-day RSI on BABA is just 0.47.
Crunching the numbers, I wanted to see if there was any kind of edge in buying BABA for a day after such a run of losses. Using the logic of buying on the open (after 8 down days) and selling (to close) on the open of the following day – since listing on the NYSE in 2014 the system would have placed 11 trades, which isn’t a huge sample size but there is a 73% winning ratio. The average loss is 1.32x higher than the average gain, so this works against performance, but the max win is 1.36x higher than the max loss.
If I scan to see buying after 8 consecutive falls with a 5-day hold period, my strike rate falls to 54%, but the average win is 1.35x that of my average loss. My max win is 1.8x my max loss.
I also see volume steadily rising in the sell-offs – where on Friday we saw 75m shares traded – the highest since 24 December…one questions if this is the capitulation move?
So the findings clearly show this name is incredibly oversold on many different technical and statistical readings. And that there is a small edge if one was to buy after this run of drawdown. One for the radar, as a bounce looks imminent even if it isn’t sustained.
History repeat itself?700, Last time Largest Share holder sold their share around mid - Mar, then, the sold off ended the same day HSI future final day. Oct 30, 2018
from the top of sold date, it drops 47.14%
This time, the same share holder sold their share beginning of Apr with high at 656.40, if we cut it by 47.14% and make the low date of HSI oct final settlement day, then. we should see
Price: 656.40-309.4 = 347
Date: OCT 28, 2021
EO500 Tracker: Tencent Boost Overseas Sales Amid COVID-19Founded in 1998, Tencent is one of the oldest big tech companies in China. The tech giant has dominated the entertainment universe, focusing on integrating its digital ecosystem.
With the acquisition of Riot Games, Tencent has amplified its global influence in the entertainment and game industries. In recent years, while its funding activity in some countries, like Korea, were entertainment-focused, the firm's M&A and investment in other regions, such as India, were more comprehensive, aiming to build an ecosystem.
In 2020, the company invested more than CNY 275 billion (year-on-year growth of 84%) in overseas markets, focusing on North America, Asia and Europe. Meanwhile, its overseas revenue hit CNY 33.9 billion in 2020 compared with CNY 16.7 billion in the previous year.
A Glance at Tencent's Insurance Technology VenturesTencent has also sped up its venture into the insurance industry. In 2016, Tencent invested in Waterdrop Inc, which turned out to be China's first Insurtech stock (WDH:NYSE), as one of the angel investors. In 2017, Tencent also received the admission ticket, which is an insurance license for its Weimin Insurance Agency Co., Ltd or WeSure issued by CBIRC.
WeSure
Launched in 2018, WeSure had attracted about 50 million clients as of November 2020. Meanwhile, the number of its registered users has exceeded 100 million. Benefiting from the powerful data networks of WeChat and Tencent's other platforms, WeSure has provided its partners with vital insurance-related technologies, including anti-fraud, risk identification and precision marketing. Users can make insurance purchases, inquiries and claims directly on the firm's vastly popular instant messaging and lifestyle platforms, WeChat and QQ.
WeSure has its own edge competing with AntSure. AntSure focused on 'insurance supermarkets' and relied upon cost-effective products based on natural flow conversion from its ecosystem. On the other hand, the focal points of WeSure are its selective customized products and real-life consulting services, which can provide enhanced one-on-one services to help customers with insurance configuration, claims assistance and more. Besides, WeSure has always taken the initiative to partner with foreign insurers, such as AXA and MetLife, to further expand the scope it can reach. In the early stages of COVID-19, WeSure and AXA launched an insurance plan which protected more than 100,000 front-line medical service staff, and the total insured amount of people through WeSure is over 15 million since the outbreak.
In addition, WeSure has actively explored charitable opportunities through the use of online insurance; for instance, WeSure established the 'WeSure Charity Fund' to enhance the effectiveness of insurance as a social stabilizer through leveraging the Internet and insurance to increase participation in philanthropy.
Bottom line
Despite the regulatory shakeups, WeSure and AntSure remain key tech-powered driving forces in China's insurance domain, embracing the potential to reshape the industry landscape.
For the full article with the charts, please visit the original link.