China Market Finally Bottomed After a Prolonged Panic Sell Off?Due to the repeated news of Chinese government's crackdown on the monopolistic practices of Chinese Technology companies that worried some investors on the long term impact of investing in these companies and the we have seen a prolonged sell off by both retailers and institutional investors in many of the Chinese Tech companies namely Alibaba ( HKEX:9988 and Tencent HKEX:700 . However, the good news is that the impact of these policies are likely to have minimal impact on the business model of these companies targeted and also from the technical aspect, we have seen TVC:HSI hitting a confluence horizontal and long term trendline support line with bullish candlesticks formed over the past few trading days. Moreover, signs of capitulation can be seen in big constituents of HSI such as NYSE:BABA , thus further suggesting that a reversal might be around the corner. In retrospect, many of these great Chinese companies are very undervalued served as a great opportunity for investors to hop on and catch some great profits ahead.
Tencent
A quantitative approach - Is Alibaba and Chinese big tech a buy?One of the big macro focal points of late has been the extreme weakness in Chinese internet and tech stocks, with some even saying this space is uninvestable. Last week’s moves by China’s State Administration for Market Regulation ( www.reuters.com) may be seen by many as fair, but the measures increase the number of forceful and sustained regulatory curbs imposed by Chinese authorities in recent months.
As any investor will tell you, when you invest in a company with such monopolistic and strong price maker qualities, especially in a regime where there is a move to a “Common Prosperity”, regulation is always the biggest risk to sentiment. Certainly, any equity trader that has seen the incredible loss of market cap in Tencent, Alibaba (BABA), Baidu, and others will attest to that now.
Are we set to see a mean reversion rally?
The level of conversation around these names, and whether the drop now represents a buying opportunity for long-term investors and traders has clearly ramped up. I would be fine with owning as a long-term play at current levels, but I have been most keen to explore whether after a 50% decline if there was a statistical trading case that suggested a short-term mean-reversion bounce is coming. I have paid particular focus on Alibaba (ticker: BABA).
Initially, I ran a scan of our complete universe of c.900 global equity CFDs for any 40% or more below the broker's consensus price target. I see 12 on the list, with BABA 42% below the consensus target price of $271 – I see the stock trades on 17.7x full-year earnings and 14x 2022 earnings – if I didn’t believe BABA was due a raft of earnings downgrades, I’d argue this is insanely ‘cheap’, in fact, it’s never been lower, but I rarely look at valuation for trading equity CFDs.
Perhaps more interestingly, having fallen 50%, BABA is now one of only 9 US-listed stocks trading 30% or more below its 200-day moving average – It was 35% above the 200-day MA in October, now it resides at a record discount to the average. In fact, this is very close to 3 standard deviations from the 200-day moving average. The only time price has breached the 3 standard deviation band occurred once before in October 2018 and subsequently marked a bullish turning point, with the stock rallying 29% over the coming 36 days.
We can also see price close to the lower Keltner band – here, I have really stretched out the settings using a 20-day ATR length, 3 times ATR and 10-period average.
I’ve then scanned for stocks in our full universe that have had a run of 8 down days (or more) in a row and that have a 3-day RSI of less than 5 – of our 900 odd equity CFDs, I get BABA and Resolute Mining, in fact, the 3-day RSI on BABA is just 0.47.
Crunching the numbers, I wanted to see if there was any kind of edge in buying BABA for a day after such a run of losses. Using the logic of buying on the open (after 8 down days) and selling (to close) on the open of the following day – since listing on the NYSE in 2014 the system would have placed 11 trades, which isn’t a huge sample size but there is a 73% winning ratio. The average loss is 1.32x higher than the average gain, so this works against performance, but the max win is 1.36x higher than the max loss.
If I scan to see buying after 8 consecutive falls with a 5-day hold period, my strike rate falls to 54%, but the average win is 1.35x that of my average loss. My max win is 1.8x my max loss.
I also see volume steadily rising in the sell-offs – where on Friday we saw 75m shares traded – the highest since 24 December…one questions if this is the capitulation move?
So the findings clearly show this name is incredibly oversold on many different technical and statistical readings. And that there is a small edge if one was to buy after this run of drawdown. One for the radar, as a bounce looks imminent even if it isn’t sustained.
History repeat itself?700, Last time Largest Share holder sold their share around mid - Mar, then, the sold off ended the same day HSI future final day. Oct 30, 2018
from the top of sold date, it drops 47.14%
This time, the same share holder sold their share beginning of Apr with high at 656.40, if we cut it by 47.14% and make the low date of HSI oct final settlement day, then. we should see
Price: 656.40-309.4 = 347
Date: OCT 28, 2021
EO500 Tracker: Tencent Boost Overseas Sales Amid COVID-19Founded in 1998, Tencent is one of the oldest big tech companies in China. The tech giant has dominated the entertainment universe, focusing on integrating its digital ecosystem.
With the acquisition of Riot Games, Tencent has amplified its global influence in the entertainment and game industries. In recent years, while its funding activity in some countries, like Korea, were entertainment-focused, the firm's M&A and investment in other regions, such as India, were more comprehensive, aiming to build an ecosystem.
In 2020, the company invested more than CNY 275 billion (year-on-year growth of 84%) in overseas markets, focusing on North America, Asia and Europe. Meanwhile, its overseas revenue hit CNY 33.9 billion in 2020 compared with CNY 16.7 billion in the previous year.
A Glance at Tencent's Insurance Technology VenturesTencent has also sped up its venture into the insurance industry. In 2016, Tencent invested in Waterdrop Inc, which turned out to be China's first Insurtech stock (WDH:NYSE), as one of the angel investors. In 2017, Tencent also received the admission ticket, which is an insurance license for its Weimin Insurance Agency Co., Ltd or WeSure issued by CBIRC.
WeSure
Launched in 2018, WeSure had attracted about 50 million clients as of November 2020. Meanwhile, the number of its registered users has exceeded 100 million. Benefiting from the powerful data networks of WeChat and Tencent's other platforms, WeSure has provided its partners with vital insurance-related technologies, including anti-fraud, risk identification and precision marketing. Users can make insurance purchases, inquiries and claims directly on the firm's vastly popular instant messaging and lifestyle platforms, WeChat and QQ.
WeSure has its own edge competing with AntSure. AntSure focused on 'insurance supermarkets' and relied upon cost-effective products based on natural flow conversion from its ecosystem. On the other hand, the focal points of WeSure are its selective customized products and real-life consulting services, which can provide enhanced one-on-one services to help customers with insurance configuration, claims assistance and more. Besides, WeSure has always taken the initiative to partner with foreign insurers, such as AXA and MetLife, to further expand the scope it can reach. In the early stages of COVID-19, WeSure and AXA launched an insurance plan which protected more than 100,000 front-line medical service staff, and the total insured amount of people through WeSure is over 15 million since the outbreak.
In addition, WeSure has actively explored charitable opportunities through the use of online insurance; for instance, WeSure established the 'WeSure Charity Fund' to enhance the effectiveness of insurance as a social stabilizer through leveraging the Internet and insurance to increase participation in philanthropy.
Bottom line
Despite the regulatory shakeups, WeSure and AntSure remain key tech-powered driving forces in China's insurance domain, embracing the potential to reshape the industry landscape.
For the full article with the charts, please visit the original link.
Top China Internet-Tech stocks (most on Hang Seng Tech Index)Top China Internet-Tech stocks (most are on the Hang Seng Tech Index, some are still on the Nasdaq - all on separate scales) vs Hang Seng Index (HSI), CSI 300 index , NASDAQ (IXIC index):
- Tencent 0700
- Meituan 3090
- JD .com Nasdaq JD
- Pinduoduo Nasdaq PDD
- Baidu Nasdaq BIDU
- Netease 9999
- Kuaishou 1024
- Bilbili Nasdaq BILI
- Alibaba 9988
Top China Internet-Tech stocks (most r on Hang Seng Tech Index)Top China Internet-Tech stocks (most are on the Hang Seng Tech Index, some are still on the Nasdaq) vs Hang Seng Index (HSI), CSI 300 index, NASDAQ (IXIC index):
- Tencent 0700
- Meituan 3090
- JD.com Nasdaq JD
- Pinduoduo Nasdaq PDD
- Baidu Nasdaq BIDU
- Netease 9999
- Kuaishou 1024
- Bilbili Nasdaq BILI
$0700.HK Tencent, big weekly level here.. Trendline + 200wmaThis chart needs no comment but clearly a great level for investors looking to fill their boots if we can hold onto the longer term TL + 200 week ma. Tencent doesn't often get oversold under 30 - in fact, it has only been this oversold twice since 2005.
China BigTech - KWEB ETF☝ KWEB - ETF of Chinese tech giants. It is traded on ARCA, but managed by a Chinese bank, so there is no threat of delisting.
Price is at the bottom of the channel. Most likely it will be a bottom and there will be a reversal up at least 50% towards the resistance line of $70 by February 2022. The upcoming bullish reversal is confirmed by the MACD-histogram, which is already in a bullish divergence.
However, in February 2021, there was a 19.83% move up from the channel. Such a pull-out can be repeated down to the $40 support line.
Not a financial recommendation.
GET RICH OR DIE TRYIN
Hong Kong Tech Giant Tencent, is it time to buy? After a crash of 40%+ from the recent high in Feb, is it time to buy Tencent again?
Tencent has not closed below the 40 MA on the monthly chart yet.
The last few times it has fallen close to this moving average, it has provided a great buy opportunity for the short, mid, and long term.
Currently, the MA level to watch is 431.
If we close below this moving average, it could be a strong sign that downside risk has increased again...
TCEHY Tencent Head And Shoulders Chart PatternIn the chart you can see a schoolbook Head And Shoulders Bearish Chart Pattern.
Theory says that you measure the distance from the neckline to the top and then consider the same distance to discover the bottom from the neckline down.
In this case it coincides with the strong 40usd support!
ARK also sold its positions in TCEHY Tencent Holdings Limited.
I`m looking forward to read your opinion about it!
$JSENPN Back at its 200 week ma/ema, bounce incoming?the 200 day moving average/exponential moving average has been a great level of support for naspers over the last 3 years. Will the stock bounce again at this level? If history is anything to go by -Odds favor a bounce, but let's see how this unfolds
Has it bottomed?Alibaba Group (9988) and Tencent Holdings (HKG:0700) are considering opening up their services to each other as Beijing clamps down on anti-competitive practices in the tech sector, The Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday, citing people familiar with the matter.
The potential move will likely break the virtual wall that the two tech giants have built, preventing users from accessing one company's tech platform using the other's services, the report said.
Alibaba may allow users of Tencent’s WeChat Pay to make payments on Alibaba’s e-commerce marketplaces Taobao and Tmall, a move that could be announced in the coming months, according to the report.
Tencent will also likely allow selected Alibaba services to access WeChat users through mini-programs or light apps that are embedded in the main WeChat platform, the WSJ said.
The report comes as China tightens its crackdown on monopolies, particularly in the tech industry dominated by Alibaba and Tencent.
In April, China's antitrust regulator slapped a record fine of 18.23 billion yuan ($2.82 billion) on Alibaba over what it described as the company's abuse of market dominance for years.
700 (TENCENT) POTENTIAL SELL INCOMING at 588.5 to 419.5TICKER CODE: 700
Company Name: Tencent Holdings Ltd
Industry: Communication Services | Internet Content & Information
Position Proposed: SELL
Technical Analysis
1. Falling Wedge Pattern (Potentially forming)
2. Large Head & Shoulders (Potentially forming)
3. Fibonacci Retracement at 0.786 is at key market structure
4. Fibonacci Expansion Safe Take Profit Level 1 (Grey Zone) Also the length of Flagpole
Analytical Assumption
Monthly chart has not done any proper retracement
to any market structure hence, we are looking for a deep pullback.
This deep pullback will hit previous resistance which is now the new support
Sell Exit: 588.5
Buy Entry: NOT READY (379.5-419.5)
1st Partial Take Profit: 867.0 (July-End 2022)
2nd Partial Take Profit: 1146.0 (2023)
Stop Loss: 355.0
This chart will be monitored and updated on a closer date or when more data is presented.