Get started

Tenkan-sen

BTCUSD - H4 - H & S IN PROGRESS !This time the clouds did not hold ... An Head and Shoulder formation is in progress and if this is confirmed, the technical target would be @ 51'436. Therefore, price action over the coming hours will be, once again, very important to look at carefully. Indeed, only a clear recovery above the clouds (around 63'000, already mentioned in my previous analysis !) would neutralise this ongoing bearish mode. Intermediate support levels @ 56'525, 53'292 ahead of the 61.8% Fib ret @ 50'058 ( 39'590-66994 rally) RSI is again below 50. Looking briefly at the daily picture, after having failed to upside breakout the Tenkan-Sen, we can see a "BEARISH ENGULFING PATTERN" triggered yesterday and in this time frame, in order, also to stabilise and neutralise, the ongoing downside risk, we need to see a daily closing above 61'700 which would, at least, trigger a piercing line ! On the downside, a daily closing below the Mid Bollinger Band (currently @ 59'000) would put an additionnal selling pressure and would open the door for the levels previously mentioned. Interesting to note that the 53'292-50'058 coincides with the daily support clouds area. On shorter time frame (H1), we are currently seeing a "corrective* recovery, having in focus 61'330, 61791 ahead of 62'253, the latter coinciding roughly with the secondary downtrend line resistance in this H1 time frame. should we go higher then the 63'000, as previously mentioned would be the pivot level to look at very carefully. Have a nice trading day. Take care Ironman8848
GEMINI:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
1
BTCUSD -D1 - IN A CHANNEL...The breakout and the last D1 closing level above the 50'000 psychological level, accelerated the upside move towards a high so far of 51'915. Currently in a new uptrend channel with its first resistance around 52'000 (former yesterday's high) ahead of former of Sept 6ht @ 52'956. On the downside the former resistance of 50'000 became now the new support to look at very carefully. Indeed, as you can see on this D1 chart, this level coincides exactly with the middle of the long black candle (Sept 7th) and also, roughly to the previous top of Aug 23rd; therefore, this 50'000 should really be seen as a PIVOT LEVEL and a failure to stay and hold above it would put the focus on the 48'000 zone, which is currently the top of the clouds, ahead of the support trend line of the channel, currently around 46'330-45'430 , also cluster TS, KS and MBB ! Last, but not least, a potential double top @ 52'956 could be triggered and can not be totally ruled out (watch indicators to detect bearish divergences !!) As always, monitor also shorter intraday time frames. All the best Take care Ironman8848
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC - D1 - POTENTIAL BULL TRAP ?Today, we are going to look carefully at the recent and current price action on the Daily chart. Indeed, after having, yesterday, nearly filled the technical target of the triangle pattern @ 49'421 with an intraday high @ 49'225, the BTC lost the momentum to clearly confirm the clouds breakout as you can see, for the time being, on the D1 chart ! In addition, as already mentioned yesterday, there is a potential double top in progress with the first top between Sept 15th and Sept 19th and the potential second top, currently in progress. IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THE SECOND TOP AREA COINCIDES EXACTLY WITH THE CLOUDS TOP RESISTANCE !!! A failure to clearly break this 48'500 level on a daily closing basis would put again the BTC under pressure and looking below 47'000 it looks very fragile towards 46'000 (former resistance level which became new support area) ahead of 45'000 MBB/TS cluster. ON THE UPSIDE, the psychological 50'000 will be the next significant resistance level to break in order to get out of this ongoing uncertainty and indecision for further development. As already mentioned, watch carefully at all intraday time frames, in order to detect early signal (s) as divergences which would allow to act accordingly If you like my analysis, do not forget to support with a like and follow :-) Thanks in advance. Have a nice week. Ironman8848
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC - H4 - PULLBACK ATTEMPT !Today we are going to look at three time frames : Firstly the 4 hours where the base of the triangle is currently under attack with an ongoing pullback attempt Secondly, the hourly to see if there is & are potential reversal signal (s) Thirdly, the daily picture to have a global overview of what is going on Let's go to the 4 HOURS CHART : Currently, after having briefly reached an intraday low of 41'982 (so far !), below the triangle support trend line, the BTC is attempting to recover with a pullback which should, of course, be confirmed over the coming hours ! A failure to quickly recover within the triangle pattern and above the cluster (@ 42'870/42'930) would confirm further downside in the cards. TRIANGLE BREAKOUT GIVES A TECHNICAL TARGET @ 36'732 ( - 13.19 % or - 5586 pts) Intermediate supports @ 40'800 (former double bottom) ahead of 39'573 former intraday low of Sept 21st Last but not least, as a gentle remember, the 61.8 % Fibonacci retracement is @ 37'903 and should also be seen, as an important support level to consider Should BTC recover sharply and breakout the upside of the triangle, the technical target would be 49'686 ! (unlikely for the time being) HOURLY: As for H4, currently in an upside corrective move, currently facing the bottom of the clouds resistance and TS too ! Interesting to note that the top of the clouds, also coincides with the cluster of KS and MBB, around 43000/43100 which roughly corroborate the resistance area above mentioned on H4 ! So watch the clouds and monitor closely price action over the coming hours which will help you to get validation or invalidation of the triangle implication previously explained. DAILY : Global picture remains heavy ! Currently traded below the downtrend line resistance and below KS, MBB and TS. For the time being still in the clouds which is showing a sideways price action and could be seen, in this time frame as NEUTRAL ! LEVELS TO WATCH ON D1 ARE THE FOLLOWING : Upside : 45'000 Downside : 40'000 Have a nice trading day. All the best and take care. If you like my analysis and you find it valuable for your trading strategies, please do not forget to like it and for those who does not follow me yet, also please add me on your following list. All the best Ironman8848
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
1
BTCUSD - H4 - TRIANGLE IN PROGRESS ! IMPLICATIONS ?Good morning, today we are looking at the 4 hours time frame which is showing a triangle formation in progress. As mentioned in my previous analysis, the 44'200 level should be considered as an important resistance area, which, for the time being has not been broken on a H4 closing basis yet. Indeed, this pivot level should not be underestimated as it is also : 1) the top of the H4 clouds resistance area; 2) the potential breakout level of the triangle formation in progress; 3) the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the 48834-39573 downside move. In addition, RSI indicator is also in progress to breakout the 50 level. A next H4 closing level above 44'200 would be the first warning signal, calling for further upside ! Triangle breakout, on one or on the other side, would imply, a move of 5'586 points, targeting respectively 49'786 (psychological 50'000 level) on the upside and 36440 on the downside (roughly the weekly clouds bottom level So, watch carefully price action over the coming hours, in looking at the shorter time frames in order to detect early signal (s) which would validate or invalidate the potential triangle breakout above mentioned. On the downside, a sustainable move below 43'500 (see H1 chart) should also be seen as the first warning signal for further downside, targeting 42'600 ahead of 41'950, currently the level of the triangle support trend line. CONCLUSION : WATCH THE CLOUDS ! Have a nice day All the best and take care Ironman8848
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTCUSD - D1 - WATCH THE CLOUDS !Good morning, today we are going to look at the daily picture again. Indeed, as you clearly can see on this chart, the bottom of the clouds in this time frame, worked, once again perfectly well in rejecting the breakout attempt with an intraday low, below the clouds @ 39573. BTCUSD is currently traded at, I would say a key pivot level on the daily picture; indeed the 41'800/42'000 area, should be seen, on a daily closing basis as an important level for further development. This area (41'800) coincides with the middle level of the 3rd black candle which has been triggered by yesterday's price action with a closing level within the clouds @ 40'596. A failure to recover, hold and close above the 42'000 would add further selling pressure in the cards in opening the door for lower levels, targeting first the clouds breakout ahead of 37'904 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 28'600-2956 rally. A successful recovery would put the focus on the 44'000 area, being both former minor and fragile uptrend line support (in green) and also KS. Very important to note that, strategically speaking we are currently in a broad bearish trend and any recovery should only be seen as a corrective move for the time being. ONLY A CLEAR BREAKOUT OF THE ONGOING DOWNTREND LINE RESISTANCE, WHICH ALSO COINCIDES ROUGHLY WITH THE TOP OF THE DAILY CLOUDS WOULD FORCE TO A VIEW REASSESSMENT OF MY BEARISH VIEW That's why, any long tactical exposure (countertrend) should be closely monitored and managed with tight trailing stop losses !!! Good luck and have a nice day All the best and take care Last but not least, please do not hesitate to like my idea if you find my analysis valuable for you. Many thanks in advance. Kind regards. Ironman8848
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
2
BTCUSD - H4/H1 - INDECISIONGood morning, today we are going to look at the H4 and H1 time frames which are both showing some growing uncertainty about further development. Indeed, I mentioned in my previous analysis to look carefully at the 48'000 as a barometer indicator and looking at recent and current price action we can note, so far, some lack of momentum to clearly confirm a breakout of the level above mentioned. In addition, on H4, a RSI bearish divergence has already been triggered which pushed, slighlty down the BTC towards KS and clouds support zone which hold for the time being. Please note that the recent low (47613) also, coincides with the new minor support trend line (in green on H4) So, on H4 : on the downside , watch carefully the cluster support area (47'947-47'768) as a failure to hold above this zone would open the door for the clouds zone with its bottom line currently around 46'000 ! on the upside , watch former high 48834 and check RSI which will validate (convergence) or invalide (divergence) further upside !!! and on H1 : watch the cluster (48'000-48'225) on a closing basis ! failure to close above 48'225 and hold in a sustainable manner, would put some short term selling pressure, opening the door first for the very thin cloud support area (fragile !!!) On the upside watch for a potential upside breakout of the ongoing slightly uptrend channel. Have a nice Sunday and all the best. Take care Ironman8848
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTCUSD - D1 - WATCH CLUSTER @ 47'900 !Good morning, today we are going to look at the daily picture which yesterday, on a closing basis, triggered a bullish engulfing pattern. Indeed, as mentioned in my previous analysis (see related ideas below) I highlighted, the importance of the clouds support zone on this D1 time frame and you can see the confirmation on the chart. Clouds once again worked perfectly well, this time as a support zone which triggered this recovery seen yesterday. So what next ? Despite this nice yesterday's move, BTCUSD remains under the influence of this long bearish black candle of Sept 7th with a very strong resistance area (cluster around 47'900 which should be clearly broken on a daily closing). As long as this cluster is not broken, the pressure remains on the downside, we are currently facing a minor resistance which was the former congestion bottom seen over a couple days at the end of August. IMPLICATIONS : 1) On the upside, a sustainable move above the cluster of 47'900 should be seen as a first warning signal which would neutralise the ongoing downside risk and open the door first for the psychological 50'000 level ahead of former high @ 52'956 2) On the downside, a failure to stay and hold above 46'000 on a closing basis would trigger a dark cloud clover and put the focus once again on the daily top clouds support area, currently @ 45'000 CONCLUSION : Watch shorter time frames : On H4, currently trying to breakout the clouds resistance area and on H1 there is a bearish divergence which has been confirmed; on H1 watch at 46'900 ahead of 46'700 (MBB) of a warning confirmation for a reversal calling potentially for a return towards 46'250 and a failure to hold above this level would directly put the focus on the 45'000 area, daily target on the downside ! Have a great day and all the best Take care Ironman8848
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC - H4 - WATCH THE CLUSTER...H4 : Last candle closing @ 44'636 is the first warning signal which triggered, as expected and mentioned in my previous analysis published yesterday, a "shy" pullback, which should be watch at very carefully and which will be crucial for further development. Indeed, a failure to recover above the ongoing support trend line (green line) and watch also RSI which broke down as well, will confirm further downside in the cards, calling probably for a retest of former lows (44'125 ahead of 42'900) where situation should be reassessed ! (double bottom ?) On the upside, a recovery above the support trend line, would temporary neutralise the downside risk but as long as BTC stay below the H4 cluster (currently 45'508-45772), the selling pressure will remain. The MBB worked, once again, very well, breakouts attempts but...not confirmed ! A breakout of the cluster resistance area would then put the focus on the next key pivot resistance area...which is once again the H4 clouds zone (46'900-48'000). Watch shorter time frames to detect early signal (s) which will validate or invalidate the two scenarios above mentioned. Have a nice day & week. All the best and take care Ironman8848
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC - H4 - WATCH CLUSTER @ 45'800 !Good morning, today, we are going to look at the 4 hours time frame. Indeed, as you can see on this chart, the MBB worked perfectly well so far Therefore, I strongly suggest to look carefully at the cluster zone, currently around 45'800 (KJ and MBB) as for the time being, several upside breakouts attempts have been rejected by the Mid Bollinger Band which should be seen, once again as "THE LEADING INDICATOR" for further development. Price action seen over the last couple of hours is showing further downside in the cards and this will be confirmed by a clear breakout of the ongoing support trend line (green line) on a closing basis. A failure to stay above that line would accelerate the downside move (warning breakout, then pullback !!) towards the former low @ 44'125 ahead of Sept 7th low @ 42'900. A move towards the latter level would force to look at the next support zone, this time on a daily basis, and which is, once again, the clouds support zone, as mentioned in my previous analysis (see related ideas below). Have a nice Sunday, relax, take care and all the best Ironman8848
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC- D1 - NICE RECOVERY... AND STILL IN A BEARISH MODE...D1 : After having nearly reached the expected target which were respectively 50187 (61.8% Fib ret) and the psychological support level of 50'000 in moving down towards an intraday low of 50360, the BTC recovered nicely towards an intraday high so far of 55597. This recent price action triggered a long white candle (bullish engulfing pattern) which on its upside move broke the Kijun-Sen line (currently @ 54037) but failed on a closing basis, yesterday to move above Tenkan-Sen (currently @ 55158), where we are at the moment. Interesting that this long bullish candle did not trigger a big volume !!! Key resistance area on D1 basis, remains Mid Bollinger Band (currently @ 56163) which also coincides with the current downtrend line resistance level. Therefore, unless a clear breakout of this zone occurs soon, recent and current price action should still be seen as a "NICE" corrective move only.. in a still ongoing bearish picture. Watch H4 and shorter time frames H1 and M15 to get clues about further intraday development which will allow you to act accordingly. Have a nice weekend and have fun All the best Take care and do not forget, if you like my analysis to like it and follow me Ironman8848
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
2
BTC - H4 - TRIANGLE TARGET @ 48455H4 : Triangle target is @ 48455. Nevertheless, as mentioned, in my previous D1 post, it is likely and it is in progress, to see some recovery process which is expected to be relatively limited. Indeed, global picture remains heavy and is calling for further downside. Tenkan-Sen (@ 54355) will be the first resistance level to break ahead of the Mid Bollinger Band (@55110) A recovery above the latter level would neutralise, at least on short term, the current downside risk. Interesting to note the thickness of the clouds resistance area which is indicating some fragility as seen on the downside breakout, a couple days ago ! Watch H1 and M15 to get potential corrective targets
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
US10 Y - TREND REVERSAL IN PROGRESS...D1 : Recent price action is showing a trend reversal in progress. Indeed, last Friday a "doji" (uncertainty and indecision) took place which has been followed yesterday by a bearish engulfing pattern ! Today's ongoing price action continue to move to the downside. Watch carefully the Tenkan-Sen or Conversion Line, currently @ 1.6140 as the first important support and last but not least, at the MID BOLLINGER BAND, "T H E L E A D I N G I N D I C A T O R", currently @ 1.5620 as a pivot level for the ongoing session (s) If you find my analysis valuable for your trading, please do not forget to like and follow me Have a nice trading day All the best Ironman8848
TVC:US10Y
by Ironman8848
2
BTC - D1 - NICE RECOVERY...BUT !D1 : Despite a new downtrend which took place before yesterday, price action shown yesterday (thanks to the FED !) triggered a nice recovery towards a high reached early this morning @ 59559 (might be a sign as I was born in 19.. 59, no I am joking...) That said, despite this, not negligeable recent rally (+ roughly 10 % in a couple of hours), BTC did not managed to recover above the primary uptrend support line which should still be seen as one of the important level to break on the upside in order to get out of this remaining bearish pressure as for the time being, unfortunately recent and current price action should still be seen as a corrective move. 57500 on the downside is the first significant support level to look at which is also the Tenkan-Sen (conversion line) ! Indeed, a failure to hold above this area would directly put the focus on the secondary support trend line which for the time being rejected several downside breakout attempts. Last but not least, Mid Bollinger Band, THE LEADING INDICATOR, is @ 53255 ! In order to give additional support for an upside continuation move, we clearly need to see a breakout of the psychological resistance level of 60000 (also the area of the primary uptrend support line). Watch shorter time frames H4, H1 and M15 to get clues about upcoming price action.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
1
BTC - D1 - A NEW DOWNTREND IS TAKING PLACE...D1 : Last 2 trading sessions is showing a switch from a BULL mode to a BEAR one. Indeed, looking at the last 2 closing sessions we can see 2 black candles with the one of yesterday, closing "timidly" just above Tenkan-Sen (conversion line). Today's ongoing price action is currently under that level, in having already tested the secondary uptrend support line. A new downtrend line (in red) took place and should now, be seen as the level to break in order to neutralise the current ongoing bearish move; interesting to note that, the resistance area to break, coincides roughly with the former D1 closing high @ 57500 reached on Feb 21st. 50 % Fib ret (43021-61781) @ 52401 ! CONCLUSION : In D1 time frame, as long as BTC does not recover and hold above 57500, global picture should be seen BEARISH. A failure to hold above both Kijun-Sen (Base line) @ 52401 ahead of Mid Bollinger Band (Leading indicator) @ 51908 would confirm further downside in opening the door for the 50000 psychological support... which is also roughly the 61.8 % Fibonacci retracement of the 43021-61781 rally (@50187). Have a nice trading day. All the best and take care Ironman@8848
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC - D1 - STILL ABOVE THE PRIMARY UPTREND SUPPORT LINED1 : Yesterday's price action is showing some sign of loss of momentum: nevertheless, as long as D1 closing price remains above the primary uptrend support line, it is OK. Indeed, a double top formation in progress can not, for the time being totally be ruled out ! Scenario BULLISH : An upside breakout on a D1 closing basis of the former high @ 61781 occurs and then next significant target would be around the 65000 area Scenario BEARISH : A failure to hold on D1 closing, above the primary uptrend support line, currently around 58350 would directly put the focus on the 57500 area (former congestion zone); below watch 55357 (Tenkan-Sen & conversion line) and secondary support trend line. Therefore, watch, very carefully, ongoing price action, on shorter time frames (H4,H1 and M15) in order to detect early signal (s) of a potential trend reversal.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC - H4 - SHORT TERM REVERSAL ! YES OR NO ?H4 : As expected and mentioned in my previous analysis (W1) published early this morning, a corrective and healthy downside move took place and reached an intraday low, so far at 59350, close to the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement @ 59194 ! Last H4 closing candle triggered a doji pattern which is showing some uncertainty about the upcoming hours. In addition, you can see that at current level, the BTC is again reenter in the uptrend channel. Therefore, I would suggest, to watch carefully, the following levels : BULLISH : Consider 61000-61100 as the first short term resistance area which, in order to neutralise the ongoing dowside risk; indeed, an upside breakout confirmed of this zone would be the first signal that the correction has been short lived and is over and would open the door for a retest of the previous high @ 61781. BEARISH : * S1 : 59194 (38.2% Fib ret) and also the top level of the broadening wedge pattern ! * S2 : 58931 (Tenkan-Sen & Conversion line) *** S3 : 58396 & 58342 (50% Fib ret - Mid Bollinger Band Interesting to note the former congestion zone resistance (56500-57500) which is becoming now, a new support zone (57500-56500) ! Watch development on shorter time frames H1 and M15 to get early signal (s) which will allow you to act accordingly. Have a nice afternoon. All the best Take care Ironman8848
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTCUSD - D1/H4 - Upside breakout confirmation !D1 : The upside breakout confirmation has been given by the second daily closing above both Mid Bollinger Band (leading indicator !) and Kijun-Sen (Base line). In addition the clear breakout of the downtrend channel gave also additionnal support for further upside calling now for the 55000 area as the first significant target (55072 being the 78.6% Fib ret of the 58354-43021 downside move) ahead of a retest of former high @ 58354 (which is also, roughly the technical target of the triangle pattern, see H4 comments below As we are now in a bullish mode, former resistance cluster (KS and MBB around 50500 becomes the new support area to look at and as long as we stay above this zone and the 50000 psychological level, any downside move should be seen as a consolidation & corrective move in a new bullish trend . Usually after a breakout we should see a pullback towards the breakout area and which should be used, if seen as a good opportunity to get in in putting tight stop loss below 50000 H4 : The scenario A (BULLISH) won the battle ! Indeed, recent price action is showing a clear triangle upside breakout targeting 58058 ! Nevertheless, even if the indicators are pointing to the North, it is likely to see some consolidation which should, as mentioned above in D1, be seen as a corrective move only and used as a better opportunity to get in. See development on H1 and M15 to get intermediate signal (s)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
1
BTC - H4 - TENKAN-SEN UNDER ATTACK !H4 : After the strong triangle breakout and as expected BTC lost momentum and last candle triggered a bearish engulfing pattern. For the time being, the first support (Tenkan-Sen) hold; nevertheless, technical indicators are switching from the sideways to the downside which may be the first signal (s) of a short term trend reversal. A failure to hold above TS @ 53554 would put the focus on MBB @ 51992 (roughly the level of the triangle breakout, such kind of correction would complete the expected pullback and if occurs, it should be seen as the REAL TEST of a successful upside breakout. Indeed, it is crucial, in order, to maintain the bullish tone, to stay and hold above 51500 (Kijun-Sen) as a failure to do it would invalidate the triangle pattern and reopen the door for lower levels. Watch shorter time frames H1 and M15 to get intermediate signal (s) which will allow you to act accordingly. Have a nice trading day. All the best Have fun and take care.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
1