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Tenkan-sen

US10Y - D1 - POTENTIAL DOUBLE TOP IN PROGRESS !D1 : Recent recovery seen over the last couple of days is triggering a potential double top formation in progress. (trigger level to confirm this pattern @ 1.3860 and target 1.1890 which is also currently the level of the trend support line which started in August 2020 and also to some extend the clouds support area. RSI is also showing a bearish divergence in progress (wait for confirmation) A failure to hold above Tenkan-Sen (conversion line @ 1.4560) would be one the firs signal of a trend reversal) Global Watch H4 and shorter time frames for clues
TVC:US10Y
by Ironman8848
BTCUSD - H4 - TRIANGLE IN PROGRESS- 2 SCENARIOS !H4 : Within the broadening wedge formation a triangle formation is is progress ! Scenario A : Upside breakout would open the door for the 58000 area or retest of former high. A failure to hold above TS @ 50575 ahead of MBB @ 49554 would invalidate the upside potential breakout and put the focus on the following scenario. Do not rule out also a potential BULL TRAP with a double top pattern in H4 !!! Scenario B : A breakout of MBB support line would then put the focus on the clouds support zone and a failure to hold above the clouds would open the for door for lower levels towards the 42000 area Watch H1 where there is still a Head and Shoulder formation in progress to get clues about validation or invalidation of this triangle breakout
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
4
BTCUSD - D1 - LAST CLOSING ABOVE MBB...D1 : Yesterday's long bullish white candle triggered a closing level above the Mid Bollinger Band which should be seen as a first positive signal for an upside continuation price action. Nevertheless, I would suggest to remain extremely cautious following this "shy" upside breakout of both, MBB and channel downtrend line resistance. Indeed, before switching from BEARISH to BULLISH, we clearly need to have a strong confirmation of this breakout in order to avoid a BULL TRAP !!! Therefore, ongoing price action over the coming hours and more important today's closing level would either validate or invalidate the yesterday's breakout. See H4 below for additional information on shorter time frame H4 : As shown the upside breakout of both clouds and downtrend channel still looks fragile... Indeed, successive small candles are showing some indecision and uncertainty about further development either on the upside or on the downside. BTC is currently traded in the upside pivot zone trading range (50000-52650) and a clear breakout of the former high @ 52650 woul add further support for a continuation upside move. On the other side, former top resistance line of the downtrend channel ahead of Tenkan-Sen (Conversion line) @ 50053, should be seen as the first short term support level, ahead of the former "cluster" of both Mid Bollinger Band and Kijun-Sen (Base line) which is the first significant support area being slightly above the 49000 area and last but not least the top of the clouds support zone (49000-47800) ! Watch shorter time frames H1 and M15 to get intermediate validation or invalidation signal (s) Have a nice trading week. All the best and take care
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
1
BTC - H4 - CLOUDS UPSIDE BREAKOUT ATTEMPT !H4 : Recent recovery from the bottom of the clouds which worked perfectly well as a support area, we can see now a breakout attempt of the top of the H4 clouds in progress ! Important to note that, not only the top of the clouds are under attack but also the Kijun-Sen (Base line). Therefore, closing level of the ongoing H4 price action will be important to watch at. Indeed, a breakout success of the clouds would be the first signal of a potential upside move continuation putting the focus on the second obstacle to go through, which is the current top (dotted line) of the ongoing downtrend channel. Such kind of price action would then open the door for the pivot trading zone ranging from the psychological 50000 level and the former high @ 52650. On the other side, an upside breakout failure, would then put the focus on the "CLUSTER" of 48600-48500 (Mid Bollinger Band and Tenkan-Sen (Conversion line) and once again the bottom of the clouds support zone ! Below watch the support pivot zone ranging from 46300 (previous lows and 43000 Feb 28th low) Watch H1 and M15 to get early signal (s).
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTCUSD - D1 - STILL UNDER THE MID BOLLINGER BAND !D1 : Still in a broad bearish channel and below the Mid Bollinger Band. Yesterday's price action triggered a doji ("hanging man" or "dragonfly", confirmation will be given on D1 closing) ! Globally, as long as BTC does not breakout the downdrend channel first and does not move and hold above MBB and Kijun-Sen (Base line), price action seen over the last couple of sessions remains a corrective move in a bear trend. As told several times, ONLY a CLEAR breakout confirmation of the "CLUSTER" three levels above mentioned, would force to a view reassessment of the current scenario which potentially may change from bearish to bullish. On the downside, watch Tenkan-Sen (Conversion line) @ 47836, as the first significant support. In the meantime watch shorter time frames to get intermediate clues for ongoing price action Have a nice Sunday and have fun. All the best and take care
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
1
BTCUSD - H4 : CURRENTLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE CLOUDS...H4 : Currently in the middle of the clouds and below the Mid Bollinger Band and Kijun-Sen ! As mentioned earlier in my D1 analysis, the H4 clouds support zone, so far, worked perfectly well in rejecting 5 times breakout attempts... Current price action is showing a sideways move between Tenkan-Sen level on the downside and MBB & Kijun-Sen on the upside. Therefore, on short term, those area should be watch at very carefully as a breakout of one of those area will show the direction for the upcoming trading period. The clouds should also be considered as a good indicator as we should see soon or later either an upside or a downside breakout. For the time being, recent and current price action is likely to trigger a downside breakout of the clouds. In order to monitor intermediate price action in waiting the next H4 closing, watch carefully H1 and M15 to get early signal of change in the expected bearish scenario. Have a nice weekend, have fun, all the best and take care Hope my analysis bring you some added value in your trading decision and if you like it, many thanks to give me a like and also add me in your following list.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTCUSD - D1/H4 - MID BOLLINGER BAND AS THE LEADING INDICATOR !D1 : Mid Bollinger Band remains "THE" leading indicator. Indeed, after having closed, before yesterday above MBB, the failure, yesterday to confirm it, triggered a new selling pressure and as a result, the previous bullish candle has been neutralized by a bearish engulfing pattern yesterday which close below MBB; Today's ongoing candle is pointing to the SOUTH, currently below both Kijun-Sen and Tenkan-Sen having already reached an intraday low of 46294 early this morning. In order to neutralise this ongoing bearish price action, BTC should at least recover firstly above KS @ 48200 and then much more important above MBB @ 50019 and expecially hold and stay above it. It is not a surprise that MBB coincides roughly with the psychological level of 50'000, former support level which becomes now the new resistance level to break ! In this time frame, once again, today's closing will be very important. H4 : Currently trying to breakdown the support line of the downtrend channel. Clouds worked well so far as support zone in rejecting a first breakout attempt. Globally picture remains heavy and for the time being on this time frame, it looks more a SELL on rally than a BUY on dips. In order to neutralise the downside risk in this time frame, BTC need, firstly to recover above the resistance line of the downtrend channel and secondly above MBB and hold above it As usual watch H1 and M15 to get intermediate clue in shorter time frames. Have a great trading day and please, if you like my analysis, do not forget to like it and add my on your following list. Ironman8848
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
1
BTC -D1/H4 - WATCH MID BOLLINGER BAND AS LEADING INDICATOR !D1 : Strong upside move towards an intraday high of 52652 seen yesterday with a closing level slightly above MBB. Today's price action is currently below the psychological level of 50000. Once again, today's closing will be important for the coming session (s) H4 : Failure to hold above the clouds resistance, triggered a new selling pressure, pushing the BTC down again, towards, so far, the middle of the clouds, which is also MBB on this time frame ! Therefore, MBB (@ 49000) should be seen as the first support ahead of KS (@ 47836) and slightly lower, the clouds bottom zone Global picture in H4 could be resume as follow : UPSIDE PIVOT ZONE : 50000 - 52650 DOWNSIDE PIVOT ZONE : 45300 - 43000 Watch carefully H1 and M15 for intermediate clues
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
1
BTC - H1/M15 - IN A SHORT TERM BEAR TREND....H1 : 61.8% Fibonacci retracement filled @ 49201 (intraday low so far @ 49000) Last candle (bullish engulfing) might trigger a recovery In order to invalidate the ongoing bearish price action, BTC needs to recover above MBB currently @ 50784 and also above the downtrend line resistance. On the downside, clouds zone should be watch as the first support area. M15: Below the clouds and below MBB, looks like a corrective move in a short term bear trend. Watch MBB @ 50374 as the first significant resistance level to break. A failure to hold above 49000 (today's low) would put the focus on clouds support zone (48500-48000) ahead of 47069 (March 2nd low).
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
1
BTCUSD - D1H4 - CLUSTER 49900-50300 D1 & CLOUDS H4D1 : Very strong price action occurred yesterday by one of the longest white candle (BULLISH ENGULFING) seen so far (Opening 45262 / Closing 49629 + 4367 / + 9.64 %), similar to the one seen on Feb 19th (Opening 51560 / Closing 55989 + 4429 / + 8.59 %). Today's price action triggered an intraday high so far @ 50250 which is roughly the level of Tenkan-Sen (conversion line) and which should also, as Mid Bollinger Band, be seen as very important level to break. Therefore this "cluster" (49900-50300) should be watch carefully on D1 basis for ongoing structural development. The key pivot level remains 51530 and a clear breakout of that level would clearly open the door for a retest of the highs above 58000. On the downside a failure to hold above Kijun-Sen @ 47486 would put the focus again on 45000-43000 H4 : After having broken respectively, Tenkan-Sen, Mid Bollinger Band and Kijun-Sen, BTC is now facing a new obstacle to breakout which is : THE CLOUDS ! Indeed, as mentioned yesterday in this dynamic recovery it reached first the 38.2% Fib ret @ 48878 and then nearly filled in the 50 % Fib ret @ 50687 with an intraday high, so far @ 50250. OUTLOOK : UPSIDE, the clouds are clearly the zone to break and which is the case would put the focus on the D1 key pivot level @ 51530 ahead of the 61.8% Fib ret @ 52496 DOWNSIDE, the "cluster" (TS, MBB, KS) respectively @ 47213, 46777 and 46635 should be seen as the first significant area. Have a nice trading day and if you like my analysis do not forget to like it and add Ironman8848 in your following list.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
1
BTCUSD - H4 - DOWNTREND CHANNEL INTACTH4 : Last candle triggered also a Doji pattern which is showing somme uncertainty and indecision in making a pause in this ongoing bearish price action. As a result, we can see now a new recovery attempt which will face a first resistance -@ 46074 (TS) ahead of MBB (47213) which is also currently the top of the downtrend channel. Therefore, for the time being, we can continue to consider current price action as a corrective move only in a broad bear trend. Watch channel breakout (s) for clues and monitor closely H1, M15 and M4 for intermediate validation or invalidations signal (s)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
7
BTC - H4 - LAST CANDLE TRIGGERED A DOJI !H4 : Recent price action triggered a doji pattern (indecision and uncertainty), with its intra H4 low testing Tenkan-Sen. It is currently traded below the middle of the short term uptrend channel. Continue to watch Tenkan-Sen as a first support and then bottom of the channel; lower focus will be on former low @ 44151 ahead of 43577 (50% Fib ret). On the upside Kijun-Sen (48115) as the first significant resistance ahead of MBB (48319). An upside breakout of the D1/H4 downtrend channel, would neutralise the ongoing bearish price action. Monitor closely price action on H1, M15 and M5
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
4
BTC - H4 - STILL BELOW BOTH KIJUN-SEN AND MID BOLLINGER BAND !H4 : Currently in a sideways-slightly up trading channel.. but still below both KS and MBB ! As mentioned in my previous analysis (see D1), recent and current price action should still be seen as CORRECTIVE MOVE ONLY and not as a trend reversal yet ! First significant support remains Tenkan-Sen ahead of the bottom line of the channel. Below focus will be on yesterday's low @ 44151 and 50 % Fib ret @ 43577. Note that the 61.8 % Fib ret is @ 40089 which should be seen a strategic technical target ! As usual watch and monitor carefully price action seen on shorter time frames (H1 to M5)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
2
BTC - H4- RECOVERY ABOVE MID BOLLINGER BAND ?H4 : After three successive failures to breakout the Mid Bollinger Band, current ongoing candle is trying again to upside breakout MBB. Important to note that MBB coincides also roughly with the secondary downtrend line resistance. Therefore, a breakout of that area, on a closing period basis, would be the first positive signal for further upside in opening the door for higher levels towards 51530 (D1 pivot level) ahead of 51599 Kijun-Sen (H4). Nevertheless, the battle will not be finished yet because above KS there is still the clouds resistance zone to break and currently it is very thick !!! On the downside, a failure to close and hold above MBB and downtrend trend line resistance would trigger further selling pressure putting the focus on KS @ 49754, ahead of previous candle low @ 48000 Below nothing until 47000 and 47000-45000 looks very fragile. Watch carefully shorter time frames to get early validation or invalidation signal (s). Have a nice afternoon and have fun :-)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC - W1 - MIRROR EFFECT IN PROGRESS...W1 : A potential mirror effect triggered by an ongoing Bearish Engulfing pattern (to be confirmed in W1 closing !) is in progress. The 23.6 % Fib ret @ 45491 of the 3850-58354 rally has already been filled. In addition, there is also a RSI bearish divergence in progress which is not been confirmed yet. Next important support level to watch is the Tenkan-Sen @ 42093 which roughly coincides with the former high seen at the beginning of the year ! A failure to stay and hold above that level would be very negative for the BTC and confirm further downside in opening the door for 37533 (38.2% Fib ret) first ahead of Kijun-Sen, currently @ 34089. Watch shorter time frames to get validation or invalidation of this expected bearish scenario ONLY A MOVE BACK ABOVE 53056 (middle of the long white bullish candle) WOULD NEUTRALISE THE ONGOING BEARISH PRICE ACTION !!!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC - AT A GLANCE - TRADING IN THE ZONE - D1 - H4 - H1D1 : As expected, (Tks to Elon !)..., the Monday's breakout of former high @ 42000 triggered a sharp acceleration move towards a high so far of 48200, close to the psychological target mentioned of 50'000. (see my previous Heat Map post). Looking at yesterday's price action, we can see a "school case", perfect "doji" pattern which means indecision and uncertainty ! In addition, coupled with this doji, there is also a bearish divergence on RSI. Therefore, it looks like, further downside is on the cards ! After this sharp move, the 45000-41000 trading range is very fragile and we can not ruled out to see a mirror effect happening in the coming session (s) which would push the BTC down back towards the form congestion zone of January 41000-42000. Screen shorter time frames to get intermediate signal (s) which will help to validate or invalidate this expected bearish scenario. Important to note that on D1, we are still in a strategic uptrend (see the support trend line in green) and therefore the view expressed here should be seen as a tactical trading approach (countertrend !) Only a clear breakout of the uptrend line support would switch from bullish to bearish in a strategic mode approach ! Scenario 1 (Bullish) : Recovery and breakout of the former high of 48200 and then again sharp acceleration towards 51000 and probably higher (Fib projection) Scenario 2 (Bearish) : Failure to hold above 45'000 (yesterday's intraday low) would put the focus on the 43'000 area (see H4 and H1 comments below) H4 : Downtrend in place. Watch 47'000 on closing period observation; a recovery above that level would, for the time being, neutralise the downside risk. On the downside first level to look is 45'600. A H4 closing below that level would be the first signal confirming an ongoing bearish price action targeting the next support previously mentioned on D1 @ 43000 H1 : Downtrend in place Below all leading indicators ! Watch 44900 as the key pivot point, which is also the top of the clouds support zone and which corroborate the view expressed above on D1 As for H4, only a recovery above 47000 would force to a view reassessment of the expected bearish scenario
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Ironman8848
2
US10Y - D1 - DOUBLE TOP IN PROGRESS !D1 : Double top in progress, coupled with a bearish engulfing pattern (which should be confirmed on a closing basis !) In addtion technical indicators are showing bearish divergences... Watch MBB and TS @ 1.0960 as leading indicators for further development. Indeed, a failure to hold above the 1.1000 area would directly put the focus on 1.0460 (KS) ahead of the trigger level of the double top @ 0.9960. (also clouds support area !) A breakout of the latter level would open the door for 0.7960 (double top target) Warning : Stop and reverse @ 1.29 ! Watch also ongoing price action on W1, currently facing a tough clouds resistance to break !
TVC:US10YShort
by Ironman8848
1
BTC - H4 -SHOOTING STAR + DOUBLE TOP IN PROGRESS !H4 : Last candle triggered as shooting star coupled with a potential double top in progress. In addition indicators are also in divergences process Watch : 36477 (TS), 35300 (MBB) and 35280 (KS) 35300 should be seen as a very important support area in this time frame Failure to hold above it would open the door for : S1 :35002 S2 :33885 S3 :32767 H1 : Short term reversal already in progress (doji) followed by a black candle (bearish engulfing) which has been confirmed by a second black bearish candle which hold above TS. Watch : 37538 (TS), 37085 (MBB) and 36973 (KS) Below important congestion zone support between 36045 and 34594 (clouds area and Fib ret Watch very short term time frame M15 and M15 to check price action and detect early invalidated signal (s) of the expected intraday short term potential reversal.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Ironman8848
1
BTC - D1 - ON GOING PRICE RECOVERY PRICE ACTION...D1 : Saturday's price action triggered a Doji pattern. Yesterday's price action triggered a long black bearish candle with an intraday low, holding above the former uptrend (green arrow). Today's ongoing price action is showing a recovery in progress facing right now the first resistance level to break and it is, once again TS ! Second obstacle will be MBB (currently @ 34281) and then the D1 downtrend line resistance, currently @ 34600. Interesting to note that the yesterday'opening coincides with MBB and a daily closing today above that level would trigger a bullish engulfing pattern... with a closing level, ABOVE MBB and even better if it is above the downtrend line resistance !!! H4/H1 : Watch carrefuly in screening, shorter time frames H4 and H1, to monitor closely intraday price action in order to be able to react accordingly.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC - W1 - WATCH CLOSING PRICE AT THE END OF THE WEEK...W1 : For the second consecutive week, the closing price of last week has been below the downtrend line resistance level; the shape of the candle (small body and long upside and downside shadows is confirming uncertainty !) Important to note the importance of TS which worked perfectly well again as a leading indicator in holding so far 3 times, rejecting downside breakout attempts... Therefore, this week closing price will probably tell more about the future... Indeed, as the level of the downtrend line resistance move down every weeky the area to break now is currently roughly @ 34000 vs 36000, the week before ! Nevertheless, an alone upside breakout of the downtrend line will not be sufficient to confirm, that we are out of the woods ! A strategic trend reversal would only be confirmed by a move, first of all above the 36'000 area (open level of the second black candle) ahead of 38'000 (open level of the first black candle) Such kind of move would neutralise the current ongoing downside risk. On the downside, a weekly closing below the closing level of the second black candle @ 32288 would confirm further downside in the cards. Finally, TS, currently @ 29784, is the key pivot level; a failure to hold on a weekly closing above that level would directly put the focus on my first strategic target of 27426 (38.2% Fib ret / (3850-42000) ! D1 : Watch carefully D1 price action to get clues for further intermediate signals over the coming sessions.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC - H4 - STILL ABOVE THE CLOUDS...BUT...H4 : Take a few seconds for looking back what happened since the peak reached 3 weeks ago ! Indeed, you can see that the downtrend (falling wedge in progress) is still intact. 1) Several recoveries attempt (upside breakout failures occured; the most important attempt being the one seen a couple of days ago ; A) A long white bullish candle B) A doji top at the peak ! C) A reversal long black candle pushing down again the BTC inside the falling wedge pattern 2) Then sideways price action with, yesterday, a new upside breakout attempts of the downtrend line resistance which triggered again a Doji and this time, roughly at the level of the donwtrend line resistance ! 3) Current level is around the MBB (@ 33748) and below both TS and KS, respectively @ 33895 and 33885 4) Top of the clouds support zone has been tested this morning ! Conclusion : Scenario bearish : Failure to quickly recover and hold above MBB, KS and TS should trigger further selling pressure targeting a downside breakout of the clouds with the following targets : 1) 32641 2) 31975 3) 31308 Scenario bullish : Recovery success in breaking the downtrend line resistance opening the door for the following targets : 1) former high @ 34800 2) 35060 3) 35740 4) 36419 Due to high volatility I would strongly suggest to carefully screen shorter time frame , H1 and M15, to detect early signals which would allow to act accordingly. Have a nice Sunday :-) Good luck Ironman8848
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848