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Tenkan-sen

BTC - D1 - STILL IN A DOWNTREND...D1 : Despite a strong recovery attempt seen yesterday (thanks to Mr Elon Musk...which "help" and triggered a sharp upside move in a couple of hours (31990 towards 38620 !), BTC did not manage to close and hold above the downtrend line resistance which is still in place and which worked perfectly well in rejecting 5 times breakouts attempts ! In addition, yesterday's price action should be seen as a bearish pattern, BULLS loosing the battle against the BEARS. Moreover, yesterday's closing has been below KS and MBB which continue to remain very good barometers. No change in my bearish expected scenario which is calling for a retest of the psychological 30'000 level first. A failure to stay above 31990 (former low of yesterday) would set the tone for the ongoing trading session. IMPORTANT to note, the critical trading range between 30400-28800. Indeed a failure to stay and hold above that area, would directly put the focus on my first strategic target @ 27426 ahead of lower levels. As already mentioned, in order to neutralise the current downside risk, the first positive signal would be a daily closing level above MBB, downtrend line resistance and last but not least above KS, currently @ 35400 ! Watch shorter time frames H4, H1,M15 to initiate countertrend tactical positions in respecting a disciplined and rigorous Risk & Reward approach in this "current" high volatility market environment ! Have a great weekend Ironman8848
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Ironman8848
NQ1 - D1 - WATCH CAREFULLY MBB @ 13045D1 : Despite a strong recovery attempt, yesterday's closing price @ 13186, did not confirmed yet that the downside risk is over. Indeed, the failure to close, at least above 13306, which is the middle of the former long bearish black candle is a first signal that the ongoing new bear trend is in progress. Today's price action will also be decisive for further development as we will have triple closing (D1,W1 and M1) An important leading indicator remains the Mid Bollinger Band (MBB) which is currently @ 13045 and as you can see worked perfectly well as a barometer indicator. Bearish scenario : A failure this evening to close above the psychological of 13000 should open the door for lower levels, having in mind 12584, 12271 and 11957 (Fibonacci retracements) as strategic targets. Interesting to note that the levels previously mentioned coincides also with the clouds support zone ! Bullish scenario : In order to return in a bullish mode, we need to see this evening, at least a closing above 13306 which would trigger a "piercing line pattern" or much more better a closing above the former high which would make a new high and trigger a "bullish engulfing pattern" calling for an upside extension. H4 : Currently traded below : 1) the downtrend resistance line 2) MBB 3) Kijun-Sen 4) Tenkan-Sen A failure to hold above 12850/12800 would trigger further selling pressure H1 : Once again clouds acted perfectly well as an important level to break in rejecting around 13400 the recovery attempt
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by Ironman8848
BTC - D1 - NO CHANGE IN MY EXPECTED STRATEGIC BEARISH SCENARIOD1 : 30'000 filled yesterday with an intraday low @ 29150 Today's price action is showing a new recovery attempt with an upside potential pretty limited. Indeed, TS currently @ 32620 ahead of the 61.% Fib ret @32652 of the last downside move will be the first important resistance area to break. Current price action should still be seen as a corrective move only in a broad bear trend and not as a trend reversal yet ! As already mentioned, in order to neutralise the existing downside risk, BTC should move above KS an MBB and hold above both (35'000 +) Once the current upside move will be over, it is likely to see a retest of the 30'000 area, then towards the first strategic target of 27'426 (38.2 % FR) Triangle target @ 23'590 !! Have a great trading day :-)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Ironman8848
BTC - D1 - ONGOING BEARISH MODE...D1 : Indeed, the failure, yesterday to recover above the former countertrend support trend line should be seen as a negative factor for those who are still strategically bullish on BTC ! W1 picture is also on a negative ongoing process... For short term analysis, have a look at : H4 : 2 failures to upside breakout above the short term support trend line of recovery attempts Currently below the clouds H1 : Recovery failures and below the clouds too As mentioned several times in my previous posts, only a clear move above : 1) 33337 2) 34867 3) 35260 would force to a view reassessment of my bearish expected scenario calling for 30'000 first ahead of 27426 (which is ONLY the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (3850-42000). DO NOT FORGET THE TRIANGLE TECHNICAL TARGET @ 23590 WHICH IS STILL ALIVE !!! Good luck Have a nice end of the day
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Ironman8848
BTC - D1 - Kijun-Sen worked so far pertectly wellD1 : As expected and mentioned in my yesterday's post, a recovery took place, triggering an upside move towards an intraday high of 33'869 which roughly filled my first target of 33'915 (Kijun-Sen). No change in my view, BEARISH STRATEGIC VIEW, and only a move above : 1) Kijun-Sen (KS) @ 33915 2) Tenkan-Sen (TS) @ 34247 (34407 being the 38.2 % Fib ret on H4 - 37874-28800) 3) Mid Bollinger Band (MBB) @ 36060 would neutralise the current downside risk and force to a view reassessment of my bearish expected scenario. Watch development on H4, still on a corrective move, downtrend and below the clouds ! Watch H1 for entering in a tactical position countertrend in a very, very short term time horizon Weekly closing tomorrow will give additional clue for next week.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Ironman8848
BTC - D1 - TRIANGLE TARGET @ 23590 - SELL ON RALLY!D1 : Yesterday's price action , a long black candle with an intraday low @ 28800 ! and a closing price # 30818 confirmed a clear breakout of the triangle pattern, calling for a technical target @ 23'590... Nevertheless, after this sharp decline, it is likely to see some technical recovery which is expected to be relatively limited and which should be seen as a CORRECTIVE move only in a BEARISH trend and not as a trend reversal yet ! Indeed, in order to neutralise the ongoing bearish price action, BTC should at least recover above KS, currently @ 33915, which is also the middle of yesterday's black candle, ahead of TS @34456 and finally MBB @ 35975; only a move above the latter level would force to a view reassessment of the expected bearish scenario calling for a move, towards first 27426, which is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (3850-42000) and then towards the triangle pattern target @ 23590, also daily clouds support area. I mentionned several times in my previous post the importance of both MBB and TS as leading indicators ! Have a look at W1 price action, which for the time being does not look very encouraging...
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Ironman8848
1
TTC - D1 - TRIANGLE BREAKOUT - YES OR NO ?D1 : Yesterday^s closing below both TS and MBB with an intraday low @ 33400, close to my technical target of 33250 mentioned yesterday morning in my previous post. On going price action is showing a POTENTIAL downside triangle breakout which should be confirmed on closing basis this evening. A closing outside of the triangle would be the first signal of a trend reversal, calling for lower levels. (pls see H4 update after 9am, Swiss time) :-) May your long goes up and your short goes down. Have a great trading day All the best
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
1
BTC - D1 - POTENTIAL TRIANGLE BREAKOUT IN PROGRESS !!!D1 : Recent price action triggered an intraday move towards a low so far@ 34'800 Currently traded below both Tenkan-Sen (TS) and Mid Bollinger Band (MBB) ! Uptrend triangle support line currently under attack... Watch closely today's closing for clues A failure to stay and hold inside the triangle pattern would give a warning of a potential trend reversal calling for a move towards 33250 (KS) as the first significant technical target ahead of the psychological 30'000 area ! Interesting to note that the 23.6 % Fib ret is @ 32987 and the 38.2% @ 27403...
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC - H1 - DOUBLE TOP IN PROGRESS - MBB under attackH1 : Trigger level of the double top @ 35430. Targe @ 33410 3rd consecutive failure to hold above support trend line MBB currently under attack a failure to hold above it and above KS @ 36113 which is also the current intraday uptrend line support would give a bearish signal, calling for lower levels.(with clouds support zone,slighlty lower, bottom, also coinciding with the double top trigger level !!! Finally, a move below 35430 would : 1) Activate the double top formation 2) Invalide the recent intraday uptrend in broking the support trend line
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Ironman8848
BTC - H4 - SECOND SHOOTING STAR !H4 : Last candle triggered a second "shooting star". Important to note that both patterns took place following the failure to upside breakout KS Moreover, clouds support is very thin = fragility ! In addition, MBB and TS also coincides with the clouds support area. Watch also the first uptrend line support (the one which rely the closing lows) as the first significant support line, ahead of the one relying the low of the candles. There is also a double top formation in progress (shooting stars top !) with its trigger level @ 35430 A failure to hold above 35430 would open the door for a target @ 33410 On the upside, in order to neutralise further downside risk, we need to see a recovery above former highs (37450 & 37320) Finally, as long as we stay below the former downtrend line resistance (in red) the trend remains BEARISH ! Currently, in a broad triangle pattern where a breakout should occur over the coming hours, either on the upside or on the downside... Wait and see
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
5
BTC - D1 - CAUGHT BETWEEN MBB AND TENKAN-SEN ...D1 : Still holding above MBB which remains one of the trend leading indicator with Tenkan-Sen. Yesterday's price action triggered a "Doji" pattern which confirm indecision and uncertainty. As long as we hold above MBB, that should be seen as a constructive and consolidation price action calling for higher levels with renewed focus on recent peak @ 42'000. On the other hand m a failure to stay above MBB would this time confirm a TREND REVERSAL, an trigger heavy selling pressure as the mood will move from BULLISH sentiment to a BEARISH one ! Next important supports being 32350 (KS) ahead of the psychological 30'000 area. (interesting to note that the former low is @ 30261 and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement @ 29776
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC - H4 - Below Tenkan-Sen and MBB...H4 : Currently traded below both Tenkan-Sen and MBB. Moreover, the uptrend support line is under attack !ü Clouds support zone looks quite fragile. A failure to hold above the 36250-36000 area would direcly put the focus on lower levels towards, first 34'800 which is the clouds support area ahead of the congestion zone support @ 33800. On the upside, as already mentioned previously on my D1 comment, 39150 (which coincides roughly with the downtrend line resistance) and more important the former high @ 40112 remains the levels to break in order to reverse the bearish price action currently in place. Sell on rally
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Ironman8848
BTC - D1 - BEARISH ENGULFING PATTERN...D1 : Yesterday's price action triggered a Bearish engulfing pattern. Intraday recovery failed to upside breakout the downtrend line resistance which remains an important area to clearly break which if done, would confirm further upside. 36130 (Tenkan-Sen) remains, as already mentioned several times in my post one the main leading indicator. 34400 ( MBB ) is the second support which should be seen also as a very good barometer, as already seen in the past. 32191 is the ultimate support, a failure to hold above that important level would trigger a sharp downside move Conclusion : on D1 basis, BTC , need, in order to stabilize the downside risk, quickly recover and hold above at least 39150 (closing & opening of former sessions) which would confirm an upside breakout of the current downtrend line resistance. Sell on rally towards the downtrend resistance line See H4 post which will posted in the next couple of minutes for intraday clues Have a great weekend. Best Ironman
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Ironman8848
BTC - D1 - H4 - H1 : Tenkan-Sen remains the leading indicator...D1 : From the peak around 42'000, 3 successives black candles confirmed a trend reversal ! More important Tenkan-Sen, which I mentioned several times, should be seen as the leading indicator is tested and under attack A failure to recover and hold above it would trigger further downside selling pressure, openning the door for the 32000 area (32151 being the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the rally from 16218 torwards the peak ! Below the MBB (currently @ 31355) is the next support to watch at very carefully as you can see in the past. H4 : Breakout of the MBB triggered a strong downside move (Both Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen broken !!) Clouds support area... for the time being hold and rejected downside breakout on a H4 closing basis H1 : Failure to hold above the clouds triggered a first sharp selloff, then pullback towards the clouds again, failure to recover above the clouds and second selloff Conclusion : watch carefully Tenkan-Sen and MBB on all time frames ! Bullish above and Bearish below
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Ironman8848
BTC - D1 - Tenkan-Sen = GOOD BAROMETER !D1 : Very impressive price action Tenkan-Sen, currently @ 29642 should be seen as the first significant support on a Daily basis analysis, ahead of Kijun-Sen and MBB H4 : Same picture than D1, first support @ 32050 and of 31064 and 30680 H1 : Watch MBB , ST bullish above and ST bearish below M15 : 50% Fib ret of last upside move is @ 32'400 which is roughly the middle of clouds support zone Conclusion : As long as BTC stays and hold above Tenkan-Sen, which worked, so far, perfectly well as a support indicator the trend remains bullish on a daily basis for higher levels. Only a clear breakout of Tenkan-Sen, currently @ 29642 would force to a reassessment view of the expected bullish scenario
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Ironman8848
1