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BTC - H4 - STILL BELOW BOTH KIJUN-SEN AND MID BOLLINGER BAND !H4 : Currently in a sideways-slightly up trading channel.. but still below both KS and MBB ! As mentioned in my previous analysis (see D1), recent and current price action should still be seen as CORRECTIVE MOVE ONLY and not as a trend reversal yet ! First significant support remains Tenkan-Sen ahead of the bottom line of the channel. Below focus will be on yesterday's low @ 44151 and 50 % Fib ret @ 43577. Note that the 61.8 % Fib ret is @ 40089 which should be seen a strategic technical target ! As usual watch and monitor carefully price action seen on shorter time frames (H1 to M5)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
2
BTC - H4- RECOVERY ABOVE MID BOLLINGER BAND ?H4 : After three successive failures to breakout the Mid Bollinger Band, current ongoing candle is trying again to upside breakout MBB. Important to note that MBB coincides also roughly with the secondary downtrend line resistance. Therefore, a breakout of that area, on a closing period basis, would be the first positive signal for further upside in opening the door for higher levels towards 51530 (D1 pivot level) ahead of 51599 Kijun-Sen (H4). Nevertheless, the battle will not be finished yet because above KS there is still the clouds resistance zone to break and currently it is very thick !!! On the downside, a failure to close and hold above MBB and downtrend trend line resistance would trigger further selling pressure putting the focus on KS @ 49754, ahead of previous candle low @ 48000 Below nothing until 47000 and 47000-45000 looks very fragile. Watch carefully shorter time frames to get early validation or invalidation signal (s). Have a nice afternoon and have fun :-)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC - W1 - MIRROR EFFECT IN PROGRESS...W1 : A potential mirror effect triggered by an ongoing Bearish Engulfing pattern (to be confirmed in W1 closing !) is in progress. The 23.6 % Fib ret @ 45491 of the 3850-58354 rally has already been filled. In addition, there is also a RSI bearish divergence in progress which is not been confirmed yet. Next important support level to watch is the Tenkan-Sen @ 42093 which roughly coincides with the former high seen at the beginning of the year ! A failure to stay and hold above that level would be very negative for the BTC and confirm further downside in opening the door for 37533 (38.2% Fib ret) first ahead of Kijun-Sen, currently @ 34089. Watch shorter time frames to get validation or invalidation of this expected bearish scenario ONLY A MOVE BACK ABOVE 53056 (middle of the long white bullish candle) WOULD NEUTRALISE THE ONGOING BEARISH PRICE ACTION !!!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC - AT A GLANCE - TRADING IN THE ZONE - D1 - H4 - H1D1 : As expected, (Tks to Elon !)..., the Monday's breakout of former high @ 42000 triggered a sharp acceleration move towards a high so far of 48200, close to the psychological target mentioned of 50'000. (see my previous Heat Map post). Looking at yesterday's price action, we can see a "school case", perfect "doji" pattern which means indecision and uncertainty ! In addition, coupled with this doji, there is also a bearish divergence on RSI. Therefore, it looks like, further downside is on the cards ! After this sharp move, the 45000-41000 trading range is very fragile and we can not ruled out to see a mirror effect happening in the coming session (s) which would push the BTC down back towards the form congestion zone of January 41000-42000. Screen shorter time frames to get intermediate signal (s) which will help to validate or invalidate this expected bearish scenario. Important to note that on D1, we are still in a strategic uptrend (see the support trend line in green) and therefore the view expressed here should be seen as a tactical trading approach (countertrend !) Only a clear breakout of the uptrend line support would switch from bullish to bearish in a strategic mode approach ! Scenario 1 (Bullish) : Recovery and breakout of the former high of 48200 and then again sharp acceleration towards 51000 and probably higher (Fib projection) Scenario 2 (Bearish) : Failure to hold above 45'000 (yesterday's intraday low) would put the focus on the 43'000 area (see H4 and H1 comments below) H4 : Downtrend in place. Watch 47'000 on closing period observation; a recovery above that level would, for the time being, neutralise the downside risk. On the downside first level to look is 45'600. A H4 closing below that level would be the first signal confirming an ongoing bearish price action targeting the next support previously mentioned on D1 @ 43000 H1 : Downtrend in place Below all leading indicators ! Watch 44900 as the key pivot point, which is also the top of the clouds support zone and which corroborate the view expressed above on D1 As for H4, only a recovery above 47000 would force to a view reassessment of the expected bearish scenario
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Ironman8848
2
US10Y - D1 - DOUBLE TOP IN PROGRESS !D1 : Double top in progress, coupled with a bearish engulfing pattern (which should be confirmed on a closing basis !) In addtion technical indicators are showing bearish divergences... Watch MBB and TS @ 1.0960 as leading indicators for further development. Indeed, a failure to hold above the 1.1000 area would directly put the focus on 1.0460 (KS) ahead of the trigger level of the double top @ 0.9960. (also clouds support area !) A breakout of the latter level would open the door for 0.7960 (double top target) Warning : Stop and reverse @ 1.29 ! Watch also ongoing price action on W1, currently facing a tough clouds resistance to break !
TVC:US10YShort
by Ironman8848
1
BTC - H4 -SHOOTING STAR + DOUBLE TOP IN PROGRESS !H4 : Last candle triggered as shooting star coupled with a potential double top in progress. In addition indicators are also in divergences process Watch : 36477 (TS), 35300 (MBB) and 35280 (KS) 35300 should be seen as a very important support area in this time frame Failure to hold above it would open the door for : S1 :35002 S2 :33885 S3 :32767 H1 : Short term reversal already in progress (doji) followed by a black candle (bearish engulfing) which has been confirmed by a second black bearish candle which hold above TS. Watch : 37538 (TS), 37085 (MBB) and 36973 (KS) Below important congestion zone support between 36045 and 34594 (clouds area and Fib ret Watch very short term time frame M15 and M15 to check price action and detect early invalidated signal (s) of the expected intraday short term potential reversal.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Ironman8848
1
BTC - D1 - ON GOING PRICE RECOVERY PRICE ACTION...D1 : Saturday's price action triggered a Doji pattern. Yesterday's price action triggered a long black bearish candle with an intraday low, holding above the former uptrend (green arrow). Today's ongoing price action is showing a recovery in progress facing right now the first resistance level to break and it is, once again TS ! Second obstacle will be MBB (currently @ 34281) and then the D1 downtrend line resistance, currently @ 34600. Interesting to note that the yesterday'opening coincides with MBB and a daily closing today above that level would trigger a bullish engulfing pattern... with a closing level, ABOVE MBB and even better if it is above the downtrend line resistance !!! H4/H1 : Watch carrefuly in screening, shorter time frames H4 and H1, to monitor closely intraday price action in order to be able to react accordingly.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC - W1 - WATCH CLOSING PRICE AT THE END OF THE WEEK...W1 : For the second consecutive week, the closing price of last week has been below the downtrend line resistance level; the shape of the candle (small body and long upside and downside shadows is confirming uncertainty !) Important to note the importance of TS which worked perfectly well again as a leading indicator in holding so far 3 times, rejecting downside breakout attempts... Therefore, this week closing price will probably tell more about the future... Indeed, as the level of the downtrend line resistance move down every weeky the area to break now is currently roughly @ 34000 vs 36000, the week before ! Nevertheless, an alone upside breakout of the downtrend line will not be sufficient to confirm, that we are out of the woods ! A strategic trend reversal would only be confirmed by a move, first of all above the 36'000 area (open level of the second black candle) ahead of 38'000 (open level of the first black candle) Such kind of move would neutralise the current ongoing downside risk. On the downside, a weekly closing below the closing level of the second black candle @ 32288 would confirm further downside in the cards. Finally, TS, currently @ 29784, is the key pivot level; a failure to hold on a weekly closing above that level would directly put the focus on my first strategic target of 27426 (38.2% Fib ret / (3850-42000) ! D1 : Watch carefully D1 price action to get clues for further intermediate signals over the coming sessions.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC - H4 - STILL ABOVE THE CLOUDS...BUT...H4 : Take a few seconds for looking back what happened since the peak reached 3 weeks ago ! Indeed, you can see that the downtrend (falling wedge in progress) is still intact. 1) Several recoveries attempt (upside breakout failures occured; the most important attempt being the one seen a couple of days ago ; A) A long white bullish candle B) A doji top at the peak ! C) A reversal long black candle pushing down again the BTC inside the falling wedge pattern 2) Then sideways price action with, yesterday, a new upside breakout attempts of the downtrend line resistance which triggered again a Doji and this time, roughly at the level of the donwtrend line resistance ! 3) Current level is around the MBB (@ 33748) and below both TS and KS, respectively @ 33895 and 33885 4) Top of the clouds support zone has been tested this morning ! Conclusion : Scenario bearish : Failure to quickly recover and hold above MBB, KS and TS should trigger further selling pressure targeting a downside breakout of the clouds with the following targets : 1) 32641 2) 31975 3) 31308 Scenario bullish : Recovery success in breaking the downtrend line resistance opening the door for the following targets : 1) former high @ 34800 2) 35060 3) 35740 4) 36419 Due to high volatility I would strongly suggest to carefully screen shorter time frame , H1 and M15, to detect early signals which would allow to act accordingly. Have a nice Sunday :-) Good luck Ironman8848
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC H4 - FORMER UPTREND LINE SUPPORT & CLOUDS HOLDH4 : As both KS and former support trend line hold, it triggered an ongoing new recovery attempt in progress. It is not a surprise to see that the pivot point is at the same level than the one seen in D1 (see my previous post) Indeed, first Fibo ret is @ 35060 and TS @ 35305 Therefore, in order to maintain the current upside biais, it is crucial to see a breakout confirmation of the 2 levels previously mentioned and more important to stay and hold above it. H1 : Support clouds hold and currently above TS ! On H1 time frame, a move above MBB, currently @ 34600 would be the first step to open the door for higher level ahead of 35060 and 35305. Bearish scenario ; A failure to hold above TS and H1 clouds support zone should trigger another wave of selling pressure, targeting the 32000 (yesterday's intraday low) ahead of the 29000 area, intraday low of Jan 27th For very short term price action, i would suggest to screen carefully H15 and H5 to get early signals for appropriate trading action
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC - D1 - STILL IN A DOWNTREND...D1 : Despite a strong recovery attempt seen yesterday (thanks to Mr Elon Musk...which "help" and triggered a sharp upside move in a couple of hours (31990 towards 38620 !), BTC did not manage to close and hold above the downtrend line resistance which is still in place and which worked perfectly well in rejecting 5 times breakouts attempts ! In addition, yesterday's price action should be seen as a bearish pattern, BULLS loosing the battle against the BEARS. Moreover, yesterday's closing has been below KS and MBB which continue to remain very good barometers. No change in my bearish expected scenario which is calling for a retest of the psychological 30'000 level first. A failure to stay above 31990 (former low of yesterday) would set the tone for the ongoing trading session. IMPORTANT to note, the critical trading range between 30400-28800. Indeed a failure to stay and hold above that area, would directly put the focus on my first strategic target @ 27426 ahead of lower levels. As already mentioned, in order to neutralise the current downside risk, the first positive signal would be a daily closing level above MBB, downtrend line resistance and last but not least above KS, currently @ 35400 ! Watch shorter time frames H4, H1,M15 to initiate countertrend tactical positions in respecting a disciplined and rigorous Risk & Reward approach in this "current" high volatility market environment ! Have a great weekend Ironman8848
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Ironman8848
NQ1 - D1 - WATCH CAREFULLY MBB @ 13045D1 : Despite a strong recovery attempt, yesterday's closing price @ 13186, did not confirmed yet that the downside risk is over. Indeed, the failure to close, at least above 13306, which is the middle of the former long bearish black candle is a first signal that the ongoing new bear trend is in progress. Today's price action will also be decisive for further development as we will have triple closing (D1,W1 and M1) An important leading indicator remains the Mid Bollinger Band (MBB) which is currently @ 13045 and as you can see worked perfectly well as a barometer indicator. Bearish scenario : A failure this evening to close above the psychological of 13000 should open the door for lower levels, having in mind 12584, 12271 and 11957 (Fibonacci retracements) as strategic targets. Interesting to note that the levels previously mentioned coincides also with the clouds support zone ! Bullish scenario : In order to return in a bullish mode, we need to see this evening, at least a closing above 13306 which would trigger a "piercing line pattern" or much more better a closing above the former high which would make a new high and trigger a "bullish engulfing pattern" calling for an upside extension. H4 : Currently traded below : 1) the downtrend resistance line 2) MBB 3) Kijun-Sen 4) Tenkan-Sen A failure to hold above 12850/12800 would trigger further selling pressure H1 : Once again clouds acted perfectly well as an important level to break in rejecting around 13400 the recovery attempt
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by Ironman8848
BTC - D1 - NO CHANGE IN MY EXPECTED STRATEGIC BEARISH SCENARIOD1 : 30'000 filled yesterday with an intraday low @ 29150 Today's price action is showing a new recovery attempt with an upside potential pretty limited. Indeed, TS currently @ 32620 ahead of the 61.% Fib ret @32652 of the last downside move will be the first important resistance area to break. Current price action should still be seen as a corrective move only in a broad bear trend and not as a trend reversal yet ! As already mentioned, in order to neutralise the existing downside risk, BTC should move above KS an MBB and hold above both (35'000 +) Once the current upside move will be over, it is likely to see a retest of the 30'000 area, then towards the first strategic target of 27'426 (38.2 % FR) Triangle target @ 23'590 !! Have a great trading day :-)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Ironman8848
BTC - D1 - ONGOING BEARISH MODE...D1 : Indeed, the failure, yesterday to recover above the former countertrend support trend line should be seen as a negative factor for those who are still strategically bullish on BTC ! W1 picture is also on a negative ongoing process... For short term analysis, have a look at : H4 : 2 failures to upside breakout above the short term support trend line of recovery attempts Currently below the clouds H1 : Recovery failures and below the clouds too As mentioned several times in my previous posts, only a clear move above : 1) 33337 2) 34867 3) 35260 would force to a view reassessment of my bearish expected scenario calling for 30'000 first ahead of 27426 (which is ONLY the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (3850-42000). DO NOT FORGET THE TRIANGLE TECHNICAL TARGET @ 23590 WHICH IS STILL ALIVE !!! Good luck Have a nice end of the day
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Ironman8848
BTC - D1 - Kijun-Sen worked so far pertectly wellD1 : As expected and mentioned in my yesterday's post, a recovery took place, triggering an upside move towards an intraday high of 33'869 which roughly filled my first target of 33'915 (Kijun-Sen). No change in my view, BEARISH STRATEGIC VIEW, and only a move above : 1) Kijun-Sen (KS) @ 33915 2) Tenkan-Sen (TS) @ 34247 (34407 being the 38.2 % Fib ret on H4 - 37874-28800) 3) Mid Bollinger Band (MBB) @ 36060 would neutralise the current downside risk and force to a view reassessment of my bearish expected scenario. Watch development on H4, still on a corrective move, downtrend and below the clouds ! Watch H1 for entering in a tactical position countertrend in a very, very short term time horizon Weekly closing tomorrow will give additional clue for next week.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Ironman8848
BTC - D1 - TRIANGLE TARGET @ 23590 - SELL ON RALLY!D1 : Yesterday's price action , a long black candle with an intraday low @ 28800 ! and a closing price # 30818 confirmed a clear breakout of the triangle pattern, calling for a technical target @ 23'590... Nevertheless, after this sharp decline, it is likely to see some technical recovery which is expected to be relatively limited and which should be seen as a CORRECTIVE move only in a BEARISH trend and not as a trend reversal yet ! Indeed, in order to neutralise the ongoing bearish price action, BTC should at least recover above KS, currently @ 33915, which is also the middle of yesterday's black candle, ahead of TS @34456 and finally MBB @ 35975; only a move above the latter level would force to a view reassessment of the expected bearish scenario calling for a move, towards first 27426, which is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (3850-42000) and then towards the triangle pattern target @ 23590, also daily clouds support area. I mentionned several times in my previous post the importance of both MBB and TS as leading indicators ! Have a look at W1 price action, which for the time being does not look very encouraging...
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Ironman8848
1
TTC - D1 - TRIANGLE BREAKOUT - YES OR NO ?D1 : Yesterday^s closing below both TS and MBB with an intraday low @ 33400, close to my technical target of 33250 mentioned yesterday morning in my previous post. On going price action is showing a POTENTIAL downside triangle breakout which should be confirmed on closing basis this evening. A closing outside of the triangle would be the first signal of a trend reversal, calling for lower levels. (pls see H4 update after 9am, Swiss time) :-) May your long goes up and your short goes down. Have a great trading day All the best
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
1
BTC - D1 - POTENTIAL TRIANGLE BREAKOUT IN PROGRESS !!!D1 : Recent price action triggered an intraday move towards a low so far@ 34'800 Currently traded below both Tenkan-Sen (TS) and Mid Bollinger Band (MBB) ! Uptrend triangle support line currently under attack... Watch closely today's closing for clues A failure to stay and hold inside the triangle pattern would give a warning of a potential trend reversal calling for a move towards 33250 (KS) as the first significant technical target ahead of the psychological 30'000 area ! Interesting to note that the 23.6 % Fib ret is @ 32987 and the 38.2% @ 27403...
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC - H1 - DOUBLE TOP IN PROGRESS - MBB under attackH1 : Trigger level of the double top @ 35430. Targe @ 33410 3rd consecutive failure to hold above support trend line MBB currently under attack a failure to hold above it and above KS @ 36113 which is also the current intraday uptrend line support would give a bearish signal, calling for lower levels.(with clouds support zone,slighlty lower, bottom, also coinciding with the double top trigger level !!! Finally, a move below 35430 would : 1) Activate the double top formation 2) Invalide the recent intraday uptrend in broking the support trend line
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Ironman8848
BTC - H4 - SECOND SHOOTING STAR !H4 : Last candle triggered a second "shooting star". Important to note that both patterns took place following the failure to upside breakout KS Moreover, clouds support is very thin = fragility ! In addition, MBB and TS also coincides with the clouds support area. Watch also the first uptrend line support (the one which rely the closing lows) as the first significant support line, ahead of the one relying the low of the candles. There is also a double top formation in progress (shooting stars top !) with its trigger level @ 35430 A failure to hold above 35430 would open the door for a target @ 33410 On the upside, in order to neutralise further downside risk, we need to see a recovery above former highs (37450 & 37320) Finally, as long as we stay below the former downtrend line resistance (in red) the trend remains BEARISH ! Currently, in a broad triangle pattern where a breakout should occur over the coming hours, either on the upside or on the downside... Wait and see
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
5
BTC - D1 - CAUGHT BETWEEN MBB AND TENKAN-SEN ...D1 : Still holding above MBB which remains one of the trend leading indicator with Tenkan-Sen. Yesterday's price action triggered a "Doji" pattern which confirm indecision and uncertainty. As long as we hold above MBB, that should be seen as a constructive and consolidation price action calling for higher levels with renewed focus on recent peak @ 42'000. On the other hand m a failure to stay above MBB would this time confirm a TREND REVERSAL, an trigger heavy selling pressure as the mood will move from BULLISH sentiment to a BEARISH one ! Next important supports being 32350 (KS) ahead of the psychological 30'000 area. (interesting to note that the former low is @ 30261 and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement @ 29776
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848