US10Y: Prepare for a long term sell.The US10Y continues to trade inside the long term Channel Down since the October 21st High and has now formed the same peak formation as then. With the 1D time frame neutral (RSI = 45.126, MACD = 58.593, MACD = -0.280), the conditions have emerged for a new long term sell. If the previous -20% decline is repeated, then target the bottom of the Channel Down on a TP = 3.100.
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Tenyearnote
Bonds SlumpBonds have sold off into the mid 118's after smashing through 119'01. We have gradually drifted up from there, but are meeting resistance at 119'01. It will take some momentum to break through this level and right now it does not seem that ZN can muster the strength. The Kovach OBV has edged upward, but appears quite weak. If ZN is able to somehow break out, then 119'23 is the next target. If we sell off further, then 118'04 is the next target below.
Bonds Benefit from Risk-On OutflowsBonds have picked up, breaking through several of our upside levels. We set a target of 119'23, and that is exactly the level we've reached. We are seeing signs of resistance here from several red triangles on the KRI. The Kovach OBV has picked up however, but it is doubtful momentum will take us much further, given the market conditions. If we are able to break out again, then we should see resistance at 120'14 and 121'00, who relative highs. From below we will have support from 119'01 and 118'04.
Bond Yields at Highest Levels Since 2019Bonds have edged out new lows as investors weigh deescalation of the war in Ukraine and increased expectations for a Fed rate hike . Yields in ZN, the 10 year treasury note, are the highest they've been since July 2019. We have sliced through multiple technical levels below, and have established new lows, yet again. We do appear to be seeing a brief pivot from lows at 124'19, but 125'07 is providing resistance confirmed by a red triangle on the KRI. If we are able to continue the rally and break through resistance, then 125'17 and 126'00 are the next targets above. If we continue to sell off, then 124'06 is the next target below.
Bonds Smash Lows After Inflation DataBonds took a sharp nose dive off increased Fed rate hike expectations and inflation. We smashed through our lowest levels of support and drove deeper into the 126 handle, before finally bottoming out at 125'17, a support level extrapolated from inverse Fibonacci levels, a tool we are relying on more and more, now that we have exhausted all of our lower technical levels. We are seeing a brief pivot off this level, and appear to be making a run for the 126's again. Currently we are meeting resistance at the psychological level of 126'00, with 126'02 providing resistance as confirmed by a red triangle on the KRI. The Kovach OBV has turned even more bearish with the massive selloff yesterday, but does appear to be leveling off with the support. If we are able to break into the 126's again, then 126'11 is sure to provide resistance. Our next target below is 125'07 if we selloff further.
10 Year Bond Yield - Inverse Head and Shoulders in 3DPrice is testing the neckline with mini-bull pennant below the neckline. A low volume day in the indexes as consolidation commenced after the covering rally yesterday. AAPL has led the bull rotation, with Meta finding support at $300. MSFT found supply at the 338 zone with 15!! tests of that resistance since it's loss on 11/23.
Bonds - 10Y note - in 3D InvertedSometimes it helps to invert the charts, particularly in bonds where price is inverse to yields, to see what the pattern looks like in the mirror. Bull plays in Big Tech would benefit from a bounce of this monthly neckline. As long as yields increase, and the Vix is elevated, the Santa rally is waiting for the sleigh to get out of the garage for repairs.
The Bond Market in 3D - H&S Confirmed; Fueling Tech RallyA divergence between the Russell 2000 and Nasdaq has appeared, setting-up the rubber-band trade, whereby the indices tend to trend back towards their means. The question is when, as OPEX day is here and volatility may be on tap. NAS is supported by the 2h 8 EMA while SPX is attempting to recover it's overnight loss of the 50 SMA.