TERM
Long cycle projected lows and highs for the S&P 500The idea is to take a long perspective using RSI and On Balance Volume OBV to project a possible timeline for expected lows and highs in the near to medium term future. The starting point is point A (1st Nov, 1994). Point B (3rd June 1996), Point C (3Sept, 2002), Point D (2nd April 2007), Point E (2nd Feb 2009), Point F (2ns May 2011), Point G (3rd Oct 2011), Point H (1st Nov 2013), Point I (1st Feb 2016), Point J (2nd Jan 2018), Point K (2nd March 2020), and Point L (1st Sept 2021), leading to a projected point M. From here M = A and the process begins again. Using May - June 1996 as the high in RSI 12 years and 10 months from this date is the 2nd of Feb 2009 low. Projecting from this date 14 years and 9 months to 16 years and 3 months gives us the dates August 2023 to January 2025 as the range of time when the next cycle high in the market is expected to occur. I am using the period of 14 years and 3 months because that is the shortest long interval on record and 16 years and 3 months is the longest long interval on record. Therefore somewhere in-between these two dates is the highest probability of being correct. This is not to say that it is impossible for them to be wrong. On balance they are the most likely to happen. The plan is to use the OBV to make decisions about when to accumulate. This is when it gets close to the bottom part of the parallel channel. When RSI is to used when it gets close to the projected point M. Selling to purchase other assets should occur between August 2023 and Jan 2025.
Long term BTCFrom the high 69k to Covid crash using the Fibonacci Retracement tools we can see that we hit the 0.786 (~17.7K) and bounced.
If we use the Fibonacci levels on the waves up and down we can see some nice confluence in levels.
The first wave down from 69k to ~32.9k has a fib extension 1.618 that lines up with the 0.886 level.
10k-11k range, the strongest support we can get on BTC.
The first corrective wave i-ii fib extension was in confluence with the 0.786 level mentioned at the beginning.
Now we are in the iii-iv wave and I'm not expecting this to go above 32k-33k this should become resistance. And then the final wave down to ~11k should start. If we get there we should also see some bearish divergences on the MACD histogram.
A full reset to the 0.886.
Now technically we never closed below the previous cycle high weekly close.
Maybe this is not a 12345 Wave and this was a ABC correction. Then uptrend has resumed as the ABC finished.
Looking at the BLX at previous corrections we can clearly see some contraction. 93.7%, 86%, 84%, but are we stopping at 74% ?
A closer look
AUDJPY PENNANT BREAKOUT?Pair: AUDJPY
Timeframe: 4H
Analysis: Round number level, trend line, volume profile, support and resistance, pennant pattern, trend channel
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Key Takeaway: Need to see a break of pennant pattern and round number levels
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Level needed: need a close by 95.180
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Trade: Long
RISK:REWARD 1:6
SL: 27
TP: 170
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DO NOT ENTER OUR SETUPS WITHOUT CONFIRMATION
GBPUSD INVERTED HEAD AND SHOULDER Pair: GBPUSD
Timeframe: 4H
Analysis: Round number level, trend line, volume profile, support and resistance, trend channel, ascending triangle, inverted head and shoulders
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Key Takeaway: Need a break of high volume level/resistance
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Level needed: need a close by 1.22885
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Trade: Long
RISK:REWARD 1:10
SL: 31
TP: 312
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DO NOT ENTER OUR SETUPS WITHOUT CONFIRMATION
Keep Tata motors stock in watchlist.Tata motors stock has been in bull run since last 2 years.
Observing the weekly chart shows a clear formation of Inverted Head & shoulders pattern in the stock.
It can test the neckline definitely in near future which is around 500-520 which is almost 7-8% from CMP.
A weekly closing above 520 levels or above 52 week high of 537 can make the stock move to its ATH levels of 600 and above.
AVAXUSDT 1D Medium-term trade - our target $30We are already forming a series of ideas on the AVAXUSDT trading pair.
We published the last of them a week ago.
During the week, our assumptions are confirming that the AVAXUSDT trading pair is currently consolidating with a set of long positions. The trading delta shows the superiority of purchases over sales in the period from 06/26 to 07/13
Also, for almost a month, the Avax price has been consolidating above the critical support level above $15.
Such input data for Avalanche token price gives the right to enter a medium-term trade:
Entrance $16.50
Stop $14.54 (-12%)
TP1 (50% position) - $26.74 (+62%)
TP2 (50% position) - $29.94 (+82%)
P/L ratio 7/1
Fixing the AVAXUSD price below 15 dollars paves the way for the price to fall to the region of 12 dollars.
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Since 2016 , we have been analyzing and trading the cryptocurrency market.
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$DOCU -76% DISCOUNT (52-WK) -81% (ATH)!DocuSign is good stock if you are thinking about adding an AI & Software stock to your watchlist/portfolio. It is currently showing a good buying pressure with the last 2 months being green, but I think it has a way to go down! The original Heavy buying positions from IPO '18 to Aug. '18 is the $52.30 area! The next set of buyers from Oct. '19 to now are @$62.50 area! Which is good entry to swing to the $315 ATH, but the $52 entry area is a SNIPER! anything in between those two are good entries for long-term.
USDCHF It will return to support Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
**USDCHF - Listen to video!
We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met.
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Brian & Kenya Horton, BK Forex Academy
BTC Prediction for Aug-22 and beyondI'm assuming the long term trend is down
Jul-22 was a green month, relief bounce
Aug-22 probably going to continue the overall trend so will be red
inflation at 9%, expected double digits, recession for 12+months
difficult to be bullish
think there are 3 legs down
23->20
20->14
14->10
bottom here at $10k
timeframe : 12 months
Zoom Out and We Are Doing Fine!If you look back to when BTC started, we have been registering higher lows every year with the exception of 2015. Last year, BTC registered a low of $28600. The last couple of weeks saw a drop from $47k to $32.6k. Sellers are running out of momentum again and the bulls are staging a reversal again. There's not that much lower that we will go this year round!
STONKS WILL GET HAMMERED HARDFundamental PoV:
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- Fade away recession fear for Q3
- Shift to hawkish Fed
- 75 bps rate hike is a done deal
- Escalation in Taiwan
- Possible another supply disruption
Overbought while market buying less hawkish the Jay Powell speech and now all the members turn hawkish. The green street U.S. Friday data confirmed that recession still far ahead, at least this fear will ease for the Q3.
Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) 0.5% 0.3% 0.4%
Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) 5.2% 4.9% 5.2%
Average Weekly Hours (Jul) 34.6 34.5 34.6
Government Payrolls (Jul) 57.0K -6.0K
Manufacturing Payrolls (Jul) 30K 17K 27K
Nonfarm Payrolls (Jul) 528K 250K 398K
Participation Rate (Jul) 62.1% 62.2%
Private Nonfarm Payrolls (Jul) 471K 230K 404K
U6 Unemployment Rate (Jul) 6.7% 6.7%
Unemployment Rate (Jul) 3.5% 3.6% 3.6%
Review Update: $ELAReview Update: $ELA
5/5 ⭐️
In Feb 2022 at $4.10/share, I said this stock was a GREAT buy. Now it’s at $7.52/share. Even in this market! Great company, still growing rapidly Y/Y.
-Shared from PersonaFi iOS App
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