BTC Long term Descending Wedge hopiumFrom a completely speculative point of view and with incomplete data I thought it was interesting finding this potential setup for a mid year trend reversal. The current Macro environment is a little sketchy but a short term recovery bounce may change things and set up a proper bullish pattern.
From the July 2021 recovery (after the May crash) it concluded a path to nowhere having much less volume, retail customers and a weakening RSI. But for giggles seeing a very large descending wedge form into a double bottom could position a Q4 2022 - Q1 2023 cycle to play. From its current state it would show proper bullish visual structure to form from a very average and volatile looking chart while bottoming out the RSI on the weekly. Anything at this stage to pass time from macro events and ease mental sentiment to a predictive nature.
Interesting find non the less, but as always there is no crystal ball.
TERM
📊S&P500: recession vs growth in 2022! Prediction for BTC!Hi friends! In this idea I will share my point of view about the stock and the cryptocurrency market in 2022. Perhaps you have noticed how they are linked? Will 2022 be the year of the big fall or the price will renew ATH? Well, let's start one by one.
📊The stock market. As you can see from the chart, it has been rising for about 100 years now. The 2020 covid-19 crisis looks like a local correction compared to the Great Depression of the 30s. Back then, the market fell by 89% and was only able to recover after 23 years. After the pandemic crisis began, the market recovered 3-4 months only to its previous ATH. Remember how much panic there was in the market? It is your choice to take advantage of such opportunities or to panic.
After the abandonment of the gold standard, the dollar lost its peg to gold reserves and the new financial system let the opportunity to print fresh money to loan to creditors. There are many pros and cons, but that the U.S. remains the world's economic leader by a wide margin is a fact. It also led to the 2000-2001 .com bubble and the 2008-2009 real estate crisis. But 12 years later, the S&P500 is already up 3x.
🚩Fundamental analysis:
1️⃣ the growing inflation is bad for the the stock market growth. Rising price of the oil, gas and food (wheat, corn, sunflower, soybeans etc.) starts hiking inflation rate. But USA will start to accept Venezuela oil after the several years ban. For your understanding, Venezuela has the largest oil reserves in the world so it will allow to keep the oil price at the previous levels.
2️⃣ The unemployment rate is 3.6%, which is a pre-crisis level! This is an indicator, which shows that the economy is in good condition.
3️⃣ Investment outflows from the EU in February alone amounted to $15 billion! This is the largest outflow in a decade. Investors are looking for safety, so all that money has been flowing into the U.S. stock market for three months.
🚩Technical analysis (TA):
1️⃣ The first value zone is $380 to $400. Such value zones are always a huge support for the price.
2️⃣ The key $400 level. Even though the price broke it down, the whales collected a lot of liquidity to open long positions. Of course, there were a lot of stop-losses of retail traders here, most of the margin positions liquidated.
3️⃣ Volumes we haven't seen in over two years. As you know, there are two sides in trading: those who buy and those who sell. If such volumes appeared, someone has accumulated a huge position for the first time since 2020. During the first volume growth, those who bought at market ATH were liquidated, and during the second volume growth, those who bought back from the first fall were liquidated also.
Fundamental and technical analysis says the market should be rising. Even despite the reports about a new pandemic (🙈 pox) the world has adapted and is ready for new challenges.
✅Why is it so important for us that the stock market grows? As we have seen over the past few years, Bitcoin has not yet become a reserve asset and often copies the movements of the U.S. stock market. While the stock market is still growing, the cryptocurrency market is growing as well.
📊The cryptocurrency market. The indicator of the cryptocurrency market is Bitcoin. The price of 99% of all altcoins depends on BTC cycles. As you can see from the Bitcoin chart, it has been in a rising cycle for over 10 years. How to understand it? It makes higher highs and lows, which is a very positive signal.
🏁Will Bitcoin fall to $20,000 or has it already started it`s rise to $100,000? It doesn't matter in the long term. As long as the crypto industry grows and Bitcoin makes HH and HL, growth will continue. Learn how to trade now, use the ideas I post, ask the questions in the comments!
💻Friends, press the "like"👍 button, write comments and share with your friends - it will be the best THANK YOU.
P.S. Personally, I open an entry if the price shows it according to my strategy.
Always do your analysis before making a trade.
Will Bitcoin reach 100K?Will Bitcoin reach 100K? The answer is, yes but not. My estimation is mid-2023 (not financial advice). The hype of cryptocurrency right now says it all. There will be a lot of traps to take crypto out of people's wallets. Making them emotional, creating hype, letting them buy crypto at the rise & then bearish mode. In fact, crypto might even fall to 20K. One tip I can give you to make money is, to buy cryptocurrency only at dips. If it falls from that point, don't panic, just buy more. But remember, invest in some strong coins like BTC, ETH, ADA, etc. Only invest the amount which you don't care about if it is lost completely.
ETH - Short-Term Correction? Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, as known as theSignalyst.
WEEKLY: Left Chart
ETH is still struggling around the 2k support/ demand zone .
H4: Right Chart
We have been bearish for a while now from a medium-term perspective. The bears seem to be in full control making lower lows and lower highs.
Moreover, pausing around the 2k zone, especially with that wick till 1.7k , might be signaling a shift in momentum soon!
However, for the bulls to take over, for the correction to start, we still need a momentum candle close above the last high. (in gray)
Meanwhile, until the bulls take over, the bears can still push lower for another over-extended bearish impulse movement.
How deep that bearish impulse would be?
Well, it depends if we close below the 1.8k (daily candle) or not.
Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
EURJPY ELLIOT WAVE BREAKDOWN ON A MONTHLY TIMEFRAMEwe are in a correction phase which is made up of three phases (ABC). Currently, we've arrived at wave C of the whole correction which is the last wave. The wave C is made of five(5) waves, anticipate for it to appear.
WAVE A = 3 WAVES
WAVE B =3 WAVES
WAVE C =5 WAVES
To enter, watch for the break of the trend line, then with a little rejection of maybe 50% or 61.8% fibs ratio targeting the over all high of the whole move
Let's Look At Bitcoin With No Bias.So many crypto guru's will stone you to death if you speak negatively on BTC! I'm never the one to marry my bias or not believe what the chart is telling me.
Here, I used the weekly chart on BTC to break it down from a longterm perspective. Since 2021, I've been trying to explain to people through charting that BTC WAS NOT going to a 100k in 2021!!
Had so many people try to fundamentally explain to me how BTC was headed for a 100k. From a technical perspective, it just didnt make sense to me. Even coming to the close of the year, late October if I recall. A lot of guru's were
yelling 100k!
BTC broke out during & after the U.S election in 2020. It indeed went on a tear making a new ATH of 64k. We all remember the Pullback/Price Correction it went through from April-July 2021.
It consolidated around 28k, where heavy buyers sat. Price then bounced and pushed to a new all-time high of 69k by Nov 2021. It was during this time when people where screaming to the top of the twitter fingers, 100k!!
BTC printed a "pseudo" double top and rejected and reversed down the week of Nov 15th. It hasn't printed a higher high since being that it entered a downtrend shortly after.
It currently is still trading around its support level of 30k. BTC printed 2 bear legs down so far on its weekly chart. I could see some stagnation here for a period of time.
BTC, may or may not create a 3rd bear leg down, if so It may reverse slightly before doing so. As of now, I have an overall downside level of 20k.
Bullish sentiment is nowhere to be found AS OF NOW from a mid to longterm perspective. To be considered TRULY bullish, BTC would have to at least clear 50k, until then hedge your investment.
MRPL Positional long 6 months to 1 yearMRPL Positional long 6 months to 1 year time frame
Stock has consolidated from July 26th to 20th Sept given a breakout
also there are fundamental changes in this PSU company may lead stock to reach higher levels in coming weeks
Company Market cap is 9000 Cr.
Stock only 2 time of Book value.
Only Concern of the companies expenses.
Disclaimer: These levels are purely based on Price action/demand and supply zones & and consumed only for educational purpose & should not be taken as buy/sell recommendation. I will not be responsible for any loss/profit incurred if anyone takes trades based on my views. Please consult your Financial Advisor before making any trading decision.
Leave a comment that is helpful or encouraging. Let's master the markets together
GOLD XAUUSD Long Term Forecast Towards $5000GOLD XAUUSD Long Term Forecast Towards $5000
OANDA:XAUUSD
This may seem unattainable to you and to me,
but the analysis that results from fractal and price action analysis suggests
that gold is around the lowest price in history around $1800 and history will no longer see the price of gold.
Fractal analysis shows that the price of gold ounces will reach $5000 by 2027.
The heavy resistance area of 1800 and the significant increase in trading volume indicate this.
The weekly channel floor closed at $1170 in 2018, and now the high gold price target for $ 5000 in 2027 is not far off.
Global policies and restrictions on future gold exploration reflect this significant price change.
After gold reaches this price, wait for the analysis to continue in 2027.
The world will be stable in peace and tranquility after this great global challenge in war and bloodshed and unrest.
Ethreum - Medium Term Trading Idea - 18 May 2022KRAKEN:ETHUSD in the past week collapsed to $1'720 and finds support at mid-2021 lows. There is a big probability of over 70% to start some kind of accumulation, but big whales will try to drop it even lower over $1'600 - expecting this scenario in action at the beginning of June.
What is the supported thesis technically for the expected scenario on Ethereum?
- 9 months wedge formation will take a pressure on price action in the next 1-2 months
- The MACD indicator hits low points and soon will start forming some flat
- On Daily TF the downside impulse is still not finished
- Don't over-react the situation is still nothing so scary
If you have any questions related to this trading idea I will be happy to provide you with answers.
SPY- Potential Reversal (Update- Bullish)Following a massive head and shoulders forming, the SPY has seemingly found a bottom. Watching closely for a potential bullish reversal here as there has been quite a clear shift in momentum the past few days. The SPY is forming an inverse head and shoulders on the hourly timeframe (Not Pictured, while also forming a massive bullish harmonic pattern as well as a bullish ABCD Elliot Wave on the 4-hour timeframe (See attached chart below). This is accompanied by bullish divergence on the RSI as well as a clear increase in buyer volume relative to seller volume. Still treading lightly at the moment given broader economic conditions and very possible rate hikes by the Fed coming, however, am leaning more towards bullish than bearish at the moment. Staying hedged & scaling into long-term buying opportunities. Just some FIB levels and RSI-based supply and demand zones to keep an eye on in the meantime - (Previous Charts Attached Below)
-- 4-Hour Timeframe --
-- Previously Charted --
GBPCAD - Detailed Video Analysis!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, as known as theSignalyst.
Here is a detailed update top-down analysis for GBPCAD.
Which scenario do you think is more likely to happen? and Why?
Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good Luck!.
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
XAUUSD Gold : A short-term zoom in for today! 5.5Let's cut right to the point.
Since yesterday's FED meeting Gold rallied by around $40, coming from lows of mid 1850's.
Today we have a Jobless claims report which is also expected to be impactful.
So let's break down the two aspects of analysis:
1) Fundamental - Inflation is here to stay, hike news yesterday were already implemented to USD before they came, only bringing USD down and Gold up, also war is getting worse, supply chain disruptions are still ongoing and Gold being a safe-haven and a hedge against all that is in a perfect fundamental position to continue to rally as it did between June 2019 to today with the weekly up-trend.
2) Technical -
1860 support horizontal was held and kept.
Connecting lows show a consistent descending trend-line with a parallels resistance trend-line, creating a form of a channel.
The range of this channel is between 1960 to 1845-50, a recent connecting high trend-line from the top of the channel was broken above, confirming a short-term bullish breakout possibility.
The retest of this short-term breakout is between 1875 to 1885, which may or may not take place any time within the up-trend.
A key level to break on the way to the peak of the channel is 1912-1919.
With a break below the mid 1870's we could be going back to the bottom of the channel at around 1845-60.
Today's Jobless claims and BOE report may push Gold by a few tens of Dollars, be safe and trade smart!
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S&P - Why it's strongly bearish and where will be reversal?📉Recently we broke yearly level and those confirmed bear trend in global economy.
What was the catalizator of this:
• War in Ukraine. Sanctions against Russia inflated prices in Europe and central banks across the world are raising interest rates in an attempt to fight inflation.
• COVID in China. Because of harsh anti-covid policy, thousands of businesses and factories were temporarily closed and thousands of ships were just left drifting for 2-3 months near the ports, awaiting the end of this mess. Needless to say that this ruined lots of production chains across the world.
Sadly that's only the beginning and in future we may see new global problems.
1. World hunger. As Ukraine and Russia were exporting 1/3 of TOTAL wheat supply, amount of available resources will become much more scarce. This will drive total prices for meat, grain products and oil much higher.
2. New sanctions against Russia or russian counter-sanctions on crude oil/gas.
As winter approaches, oil and gas will become more important than ever. Russia may use it to it's own advantage by introducing sanctions against unfriendly countries, which is all of Europe. Price for those products can easily increase x3-x5 which will make cost of living and producing products much higher. A lot of bubble or break-even companies will die out.
If those two will happen, cost of living for an ordinary man will rise through the roof which will decrease total wealth and global economy as people will buy less.
From technical analysis we may see a strong bounce from 0.382 Fibonacci level or even reversal. By looking at such picture, I find myself strongly bearish but can't lose hopes for this madness to end.
What do you think of this idea? What is your opinion? Share it in the comments📄🖌
If you like the idea, please give it a like. This is the best "Thank you!" for the author 😊
P.S. Always do your own analysis before a trade. Put a stop loss. Fix profit in parts. Withdraw profits in fiat and reward yourself and your loved ones
Bitcoin! The war is on; Bear vs. Bull
BINANCE:BTCUSDT
Doing TA on Bitcoin is mostly advised against but that's not going to stop STAKK
Here is our shot at the short-term and medium-term outlook of BTC; of course we all know the long-term value; in the millions. :) haha
Reminder, Warren Buffett's banking investment in London now holds $BTC. Details of the strategy isn't clear yet. Australia recently approved it's first spot BTC ETF. German ministry approves the no taxation of staked coins... The adoption news continues but so as the fud. Let's not forget the latest attack on UST and LUNA which had direct implication on BTC.
Does any of these news impact the price or future value of $BTC?
Yes, in the short term but it shouldn't prevent traders or investors alike from looking at the short or mid-term outlook.
Technical Analysis:
Daily Chart
EMA ( Exponential Moving Average ): The EMA's are inverted; literally upside down 200/100/50//20 EMA and pointing downwards! We've been in the death cross since April 11th. and all attempts by the 20 and 50 EMA to turns things back have failed. Prices recently fell to and below $29K a very strong support line.
TTM Squeeze: TTM is steadily squeezing upward against the tide. Could this mean a stabilization of the downward pressure or reversal? We need to see the candles and RSI. Maybe even a different time frame (4hrs)
RSI: Went as low as 29 (keep in mind that 30 is a great entry point especially when the slow stochastic is pointing up). But the stochastics are still pointing down; So although oversold, there is still the danger of continued lower prices although the 30 RSI is a good entry point.
Fib Levels: They say, never try to catch a falling knife. The price action went as 1.618 a critical point but bounced right back up to 1.414 (not a strong support or resistant).
Candle Stick: Summary of last 5 candles equate to a bullish movement. The last pairs look like a Morning Doji Star, a bullish pattern.
Pattern: Looks like we have a continuation horizontal price channel in the median time. Price consolidation could mean good news especially at $29K an extremely strong support level.
At the moment, I really think, it depends on what happens at this critical point. If $BTC fails to hold above $27K-$29K, it may fall as low as $19K or even $13K the next strong support lines. In the short term, given the consolidation, TTM Squeeze, RSI, and patterns we can see a push for $32 or maybe even $33K. This is supported by the 4 hr chart fib levels which shows that the current price have to cross and hold above the .382 fib levels; then terminate at $33K.
Long STX\USDTlooking at a longer period …
Stacks is a layer-1 blockchain solution that is designed to bring smart contracts and decentralized applications (DApps) to Bitcoin (BTC). These smart contracts are brought to Bitcoin without changing any of the features that make it so powerful — including its security and stability.