Bullish 2W Candle Close for BTCUSDBearish momentum is stalling out, even while the threats of war, hyperinflation, and Bitcoin "failure" loom over the heads of investors.
While we remain in bearish waters, ultimately the lack of momentum here in either direction, up or down, spells out a NEUTRAL outlook for a majority of remaining crypto investors. The majority of whom are buying en masse, including both retail and whales. While this is very bullish on-chain, fundamentally, and historically--will the rise of precious metals like Gold, Silver, and Nickel still manage to stunt Bitcoin's upward price action in the short term?
Are you buying or waiting it out?
TERM
PLTR don't fail me now!NYSE:PLTR
Daily Chart
EMA (Exponential Moving Average): 20 EMA is yet to cross the 50/100/200 EMA... For longterm buys, this is still in the buy zone although this means that the stocks hasn't recovered from the death cross (50 EMA crosses the 200 EMA).
TTM Squeeze: Squeezed ! Momentum is behind the stock... Working to fill the gap down from Feb. 16th.
Fib Levels: Smooth sailing from 0 fib to 1 fib ($10.27 to $13.02). Having trouble holding above the 1 fib . Would it fall back to the 0 level or go parabolic? That is the question. Facing strong resistance at $14.28 and at the next fib level ($14.85). This stock is practically facing a lot of resistance all the way to $29.29
Candle Stick: Summary of last 5 candles equate to a bullish movement. Bullish Pin Bar although ending red isn't too bad...
Pattern: Do you see a double bottom (feb 24th and Mar 15th)? In general, PLTR is still in a falling wedge. Will this double bottom be what reverse the pattern?
News: Sigh, no matter the news, good or bad, this stock just seems to want to trend down.
History: The last 2 earnings have resulted in a downward trend even with great numbers. Everyone and their mama is talking about this stock... Maybe the Wall Street Bets community will bring about a squeeze someday.
Company is worth Trillions with no debt, Great Enterprise customer base but the stock is tanking... hmm...
KRN: BULL FLAG BREAK OUT KRN (Karnalyte Resources)
Agriculture and fertilisers are hot industries now.
The chart is really overbought but I like this bull flag and will be looking for a break out of the flag for a short term trade.
If the pattern is confirmed, 1st target is 1.36, 2nd target is 2.17/2.34
Initial stop loss at 0.93, then raise it accordingly.
Trade safe!
THETA DECISION TIMEHello everyone,
Theta weekly timeframe is offering a good setup and all biais are showing green as well with BTC pushing higher too!
Over the past week we saw theta developping a higher low on the weekly TF and if we manage to clear that descending trendline we have been rejecting since November 2021, i believe we can see Theta retesting the $6-$7 in the coming weeks/months.
Capitulations or fakeouts are good signalsThis is a long fakeout in the chart of $ENPH. We look at this fakeout after it brakes a trendline and you don't find continuation to the downside after retesting the break.
After this, the fakeouts market liquidates many MANY sell positions and call options that they do 2 things:
Scare the sellers with bad loses
Add tons of liquidity or volume around these prices.
Plus, the MACD gives a delayed, but great signal to ATH. And the fundamentals are looking great:
www.etoro.com
So, I can do 2 things, go for different mini trades in the 4 hours allocating 0.5% to 1.5% of my portfolio and leveraging those either X2 or X5. Or I can go the low-risk option and add a larger allocation, up to 5%, and just let it be there.
1) Short-term trading (swing trades) with low leverage:
The Pros of this strat are having more capital to open other trades like BTC (which is moving now) or just having cash for hedge purposes.
The Cons is the risky trades as I can lose that capital easier in this way as the short-term trades are usually fewer probability trades.
2) Long-term position with higher allocation.
On the contrary, a long-term position is a higher probability trade, not a time-consuming (a simple SL and TP order would do) position, but it allocates a large amount of capital.
I'll try to do half and half this time.
Let me know what you think about this
S&P500 Long Term Moving AveragesThis chart shows ES with 4 long term averages - 1 year, 5 year, 10 year, and 20 year. I marked some periods where we dipped below the 1 year average and some volume spikes I saw as relevant.
2015 - Eurozone Crisis:
The issues in Europe cause us to finally break the long held trend for the first time since the GFC recovery. It was preceded by a high volume wick in 2014 and another in 2015, both of which seem to have established a bottom for the upcoming scare. Peak to Bottom in this period saw a drop of ~15%.
2018 - Repo Crisis:
This period was also proceeded by a high volume wick but contrary to the last, it did not establish the floor for the upcoming drop. Instead, it was a bounce off the 1 year EMA trend. We saw volume start to rise leading to a large downside candle that signified the bottom. Peak to Bottom in this period saw a drop of ~22%.
2020 - Covid Crisis:
Everyone knows what happened here. The sudden monster volume candle is due to the unexpected nature of this period and how dire the situation seemed. The bottom was almost exactly at the 10 year moving average before violently bouncing back up. Peak to Bottom in this period saw a drop of ~36%.
The current crisis seems bad in the moment but with respect to these prior periods it is not crushing.
We already have seen a peak to bottom drop of ~15% so matching the 2015 era would mean we have bottomed already.
Matching the 2018 era would mean an additional ~10% from the current price and would put us around 3800.
Matching the Covid era would be a disaster and would see us drop another 30% from here. The 35-40% peak to bottom drop would likely lineup at the 10 year moving average assuming it plays out the same (obviously it won't be exactly the same - these crashes are unpredictable)
My opinion is that a Covid type crash is not in the cards. Things are nowhere near as bleak as they were then and there would be a strong fiscal/monetary response before we even got there. Also, black swan events are unpredictable so there is no point doing anything in advance to predict them - you can't. 2018 is a somewhat similar scenario but the Repo market is not at risk like it was then. The fed is also being much more clear about rate hikes this time around and clarity is bullish.
I think the most similar scenario is 2015. We are seeing trouble in Europe after a recovery rally. Bonds look risky and everyone is calling for another crash. Earnings are still phenomenal and weak companies are getting flushed out without crashing the whole market.
Maybe we retest the 4100 lows or even 4000 but I don't think we'll see a huge drop below that. If we do, I think we'll see massive buying pressure around 3800 and bears will run out of bad news and buying power. For a rally look for decreasing VIX and volume and for the Fed to stick to a clear plan. This would be better for stock buying than options and the 2021 WSB guys could get crushed by talented stock pickers. Buy quality and hold long term.
[ETC/USD] Long term: What is the future of ETC?TREND:
Trending line has clear bearish tendencies since the end of February.
SUPPORT:
We are currently missing any major support line until around 2.662USD. Either we will create a new support by side action or we will fall in correlation with the trend line.
VOLUME:
Volume is proving to be not big enough for bulls. We can clearly see that bears are taking the lead. Should we see some change? If yes, then already mentioned side action is needed with higher highs.
RSI (100days):
It is currently on 42 (meaning of life?) which is not hugely oversold, therefore there is still lots of room for selling action.
Summary and prediction? I see ETC slowly falling down to the area of 2.662USD until the half/end of January.
If you agree, then your like is appreciated :)
Happy trading.
Front Curve Crude Light Volatility: Mar'22/Apr'22Upside vs Downside interchangeably for short or long risk exposure at current flat front CL1! price.
The IV stands at 73%, which is more conservative than the highlighted risk profile. Not a tradable setup; just for reference timeframes when looking for a bias.
The median line, from which the % change is measured, is derived by using the Inside Pitchfork tool; it is the least inclined from Pitchfork tools, provides a less aggressive slope for the long term outlook.
ADA Bulls came back into the game and aimed for key $1.0 level Cardano price reversed its downtrend and has been moving higher with the support of an ascending trendline.
ADA coin accumulated above 2022 year lows before recovery, indicating buyers' strong dominance.
The ADA coin is trading into the Ichimoku cloud in terms of the daily price graph.
Going by the ADA forecast, the bulls are once again targeting the psychological round of $1.0. Amidst the recovery, ADA appears to be in the Ichimoku Cloud (RedZone) in the context of the daily price chart, with the leading Span A acting as a bearish barrier. Besides, the key SAP B (present at 1.005) could influence the bullish trend.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is slowly moving up and is looking at 57-mark in the context of the daily price chart. The RSI is trading above the semi-line (50-mark) after a prolonged period; buyers can take advantage of this bullish breakout.
The Average Directional Index (ADX) is at 18-points, suggesting the slightly bullish momentum for the Cardano coin.
To the psychological level of $1.0, buyers may continue the recovery, and near $1.0, a pullback is likely to occur. Now it remains to be seen whether the bulls will be able to move above $1.0.
Support level - $0.80 and $0.50
Resistance level - $1.0 and $1.6
Watch the US 10Y Yield chart as it approaches MAJOR resistanceI am taking a closer look at a long-term chart of the US 10Y yield today, I consider this to be a very important chart. Why? Firstly, Government debt continued to sell-off yesterday, with bond bears spurred on by more hawkish remarks from Fed Chair Powell, and secondly, I prefer to look at yield charts as I consider that the data is clearer and not disrupted or distorted by the ‘rollovers’ of the bond futures market.
Ok I have done something a little strange on this chart, I can clearly see the down trend in evidence going back nearly 40-years and yet when I try to draw a trendline, I can only get a resistance line (a line that joins only 2 points and not 3). Why is this important? Because I want to know exactly at what point this nearly 40-year bull market capitulates - so what have I done? I have instead connected the lows from 1993 (there are at least 4 major lows) and drawn a parallel off this support line. Our long-term resistance line is at 2.52 BUT our parallel line is higher at 2.63 AND we have the 200-month ma in close proximity at 2.68. Conclusion – the MAJOR resistance lies at 2.63/68 and these are the KEY levels to watch.
I have been watching these levels for at least the past 2-years, because not only will this will be the final death knell of the bond market, but because we also suspect at this level the stock market could also capitulate.
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A BTC analyze for Scalper!Based on my Elliot wave analyze, we will have a downtrend to 34000 dollars in mid-term which takes about 2 weeks. But if you are an scalper and want to get profit faster you can close your sell position between 40000-38350. we will have another sell opportunity later. so you can enter again. I will share next entrance area after confirmation. If you have any question about my analyze, please comment.
XAUUSD Predicted to be BullishXAUUSD Predicted to be Bullish
XAUUSD analysis
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We will analyze in H1 TF, where we see that Gold is experiencing a bearish trend or down. In moments like this, we can take short positions when the price has been confirmed or has broken through the strongest support level.
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For the current hour and today, Gold most likely will form a double bottom pattern on H1 TF, you can all see it. And if that's the case, we can take advantage of this to buy on weakness or buy in areas where the market has confirmed the trend, namely at the price of 1929.
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The level of accuracy is uncertain because the character of the gold market is very volatile, so be careful when opening trading positions in this market.
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Bitcoin Adoption in El Salvador is HUGEWhile the majority of the companies in the survey pool were small businesses as they account for 71% of the respondents, 16% of them were large companies and 13% were medium scale businesses.
What this survey shows is that despite the litany of moves the government has made to drive its people towards Bitcoin, the level of adoption is still considerably low.
Despite the low adoption rate, President Nayib Bukele remains bullish on the flagship digital asset, and the country currently holds around 1,800 units of the coin.
El Salvador’s Bitcoin Bond plan hits a snag
El Salvador’s plan to build a Bitcoin city financed by a $111 billion Bitcoin bonds appears to have hit a snag as the country’s finance minister, Alejandro Zelaya, in a recent interview with a local TV station hinted that the ongoing war in Ukraine could impact the implementation of the bond.
The bond was first announced in November 2021, and it was revealed that half of the money generated from the bond sales would be spent on building infrastructure and geothermal energy-powered Bitcoin mining. The other half would be used to purchase Bitcoin for the country.
US Small Caps ($IWM) Small caps looks a bit tired, just hit trend resistance from 2001, and has been on down trend since.
Monthly RSI is also showing that we have turned down, which means increased likelihood that we are revisiting 100WMA (golden MA) or lower soon.
Monthly RSI might hold at this level and reach to upper trendline again, but R:R ratio is a bit... meh.
HOWEVER, relative to SPY small caps still present good value.