Dividends Are Coming. S&P500 Annual Dividend Index FuturesA few months ago I started this research, research of Equity Index Dividend futures, provided by CME Group.
Well, sounds good. Let's continue..
Were you ready or not, but in February, 2024 Meta platforms (META) announced its first-ever in history cash dividend of $0.50 per share to be paid out on quarterly basis.
“We intend to pay a cash dividend on a quarterly basis going forward,” the company said in a release .
Meta stock surged for 20% after that amid other huge reasons.
Alphabet (GOOG) also issued first-ever dividend of 20 cents per share in April, 2024.
The news, announced alongside first-quarter earnings, helped to send the Google parent’s shares up 15%.
Dividend Market as well as Dividend futures trading shines bright.
Understanding Dividends and Dividend Market Futures
👉 A dividend is the distribution of corporate earnings to eligible shareholders.
👉 Dividend payments and amounts are determined by a company's board of directors. Dividends must be approved by the shareholders by voting rights. Although cash dividends are common, dividends can also be issued as shares of stock.
👉 The dividend yield is the dividend per share, and expressed as a percentage of a company's share price.
👉 Many companies - constituents of S&P500 Index still DO NOT PAY dividends and instead retain earnings to be invested back into the company.
👉 The S&P500 Dividend Points Index (Annual) tracks the total dividends from the constituents of the S&P 500 Index. The index provides investors the opportunity to hedge or take a view on dividends for U.S. stocks, independent of price movement, as S&P500 Dividend Index Futures is a market expectation of how many points Dividends Index will collect by the end of year.
👉 Using the S&P500 Dividend Index as the underlying in financial products, investors can hedge or gain exposure to the dividend performance of the S&P500 Index.
Understanding S&P500 Annual Dividend Index Futures
👉 The S&P500 Annual Dividend Index futures (main technical graph is for 2025 S&P500 Annual Dividend Index Futures) calculates the accumulation of all ordinary gross dividends paid on the S&P500 index constituent stocks that have gone ex-dividend over a 12-month period. The amounts are expressed as dividend index points.
👉 The underlying index for S&P500 Annual Dividend Index futures is the S&P500 Dividend Index. The methodology for the index can be found here at S&P Global website.
👉 Dividend index points specifically refer to the level of index points that are directly attributable to the dividends of index constituents. They typically only capture regular dividends and calculate this on the ex-date of the respective constituents within each index.
👉 In general, “special” or “extraordinary” dividends are not included as dividend points in the respective annual dividend indices.
👉 Futures contract Unit is $ 250 x S&P 500 Annual Dividends Index.
Technical considerations
🤝 Main technical graph (S&P500 Annual Dividend Index Futures 2025) indicates on strong bullish bias. Who knows, maybe at one sunny day even Tesla King, Elon Musk will unleash his E-pocket 😂
🤝 Happy Dividend Market Trading to Everyone! Enjoy!
Tesla
TESLA: Expecting Bullish Movement! Here is Why:
The recent price action on the TESLA pair was keeping me on the fence, however, my bias is slowly but surely changing into the bullish one and I think we will see the price go up.
❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
Meta Stock Could Reach $520 by July 2024 Earnings ReportNASDAQ:META
Why Meta Stock Could Reach $520 by July 2024 Earnings Report
Meta Platforms, Inc., formerly known as Facebook, has been making significant strides in its business operations, which could potentially drive its stock price to $520 by the time of its July 2024 earnings report. Here are some key reasons:
1. Strong Performance in Q1 2024
Meta reported a robust first quarter in 2024, with revenue soaring 27% to $36.4 billion compared to the same period last year1. Net income also saw a substantial increase of 117% to $12.4 billion. This strong financial performance indicates a healthy growth trajectory for the company.
2. Significant Investment in AI
CEO Mark Zuckerberg has announced plans for significant investment in artificial intelligence2. While this initially caused a 12% slump in the META stock price, it’s a strategic long-term investment that could potentially drive future growth and profitability.
3. Positive Stock Forecasts
Analysts have made positive predictions about Meta’s stock price. For instance, WalletInvestor forecasts a price of $517.58, while TipRanks predicts a price of $547.45. These predictions suggest a potential for the stock price to reach $520.
4. Expected Growth in Q2 2024
Meta’s CFO has projected total revenue for Q2 2024 to be in the range of $36.5-39 billion. This expected growth could further boost investor confidence and drive up the stock price.
5. Long-Term Growth Potential
Meta has demonstrated a long-term growth potential, with its stock price rising 110% from $209.40 to $441.38 in the 12 months leading up to April 25, 2024. This trend suggests that the company has the potential to reach the $520 mark by July 2024.
Tesla $TSLA #TSLA #TSLT $TSLTMy plan for Tesla over the next few sessions of ideas.
Its rather clear what I'm looking for here.
I'll use NASDAQ:TSLT (leverage) to average out the larger DCA issues should it start to get away from me while using regular NASDAQ:TSLA for the main idea.
I like doing this so that it is a lot easier IMO to catch back up with the in between moves as well as have a secondary way to TP while still holding the larger position for the bigger move etc.
Profits from one can be rotated into the other making it not only your hedge but also a bit of a self sustaining play.
Should we get some sort of flash crash I'll happily take that as an opportunity to build a larger long-term play in the $75-$125 ranges.
Once they get passed this next cycle of manipulation and back to the ones who control the media and analysts pushing it we will see it blow through most of these levels with ease and back to $200+
Once we get some news one of these months/years about bigger companies buying the A.I. tech etc. we will have a whole other narrative besides selling cars and hype.
COSTCO 820 Costco’s stock price has seen a significant increase recently, and there are several reasons behind this rise to $820:
Strong Sales Performance: Costco posted net sales of $19.8 billion for April, up 7.1% from $18.48 billion in the year-earlier period1. Net sales for the fiscal 35 weeks were $166.44 billion, up 7% from $155.62 billion a year earlier.
Shift in Consumer Behavior: Due to rising restaurant prices, many consumers are opting to buy groceries and cook at home instead. This shift in consumer behavior is benefiting grocery businesses like Costco.
Membership Model: Costco’s membership model is also a significant contributor to its success.
The warehouse club’s members pay $60 a year for a basic Gold membership or $120 for an Executive membership, which comes with 2% cash back up to $1,000.
Analyst Upgrades: After reviewing Costco’s strong April sales data, analysts have raised their price targets for the company. For instance, TheStreet Pro’s Chris Versace raised his price target on Costco to $830 from $800. Similarly, Loop Capital analysts raised the firm’s price target on Costco to $840 from $820.
Earnings Expectations: Costco is expected to report earnings on May 30, 2024, for the fiscal quarter ending May 2024. The consensus EPS forecast for the quarter is $3.69, which is higher than the reported EPS for the same quarter last year ($3.43). This positive earnings expectation could also be driving the stock price up.
BABA GO UP AFTER EARNINGS ? $89.94Unpacking Alibaba’s Stock Rise to $89.94
Alibaba, the multinational conglomerate specializing in e-commerce, retail, internet, and technology, has seen its stock price climb to $89.94. This significant increase is a result of a multitude of factors that have positively influenced the company’s valuation.
Earnings Performance: Alibaba has been reporting solid earnings, which have exceeded market expectations. This strong financial performance has been a key driver in boosting investor confidence and, consequently, the stock price.
Market Position: Alibaba’s dominant position in the Chinese and global e-commerce market has played a crucial role in its stock performance. The company’s vast user base and extensive product offerings have made it a formidable player in the industry.
Diversification: Alibaba’s diversification into various sectors such as cloud computing, digital media, and entertainment has opened up new revenue streams, contributing to its financial growth and stock price increase.
Innovation: The company’s continuous investment in innovation and technology has kept it at the forefront of the digital economy. This commitment to innovation has not only enhanced its product offerings but also improved operational efficiency.
Regulatory Environment: Despite the regulatory challenges, Alibaba has managed to navigate the landscape effectively. The company’s ability to adapt to regulatory changes has been viewed positively by investors.
In conclusion, Alibaba’s rise to a stock price of $89.94 can be attributed to its strong earnings performance, dominant market position, diversification strategy, commitment to innovation, and effective navigation of the regulatory environment. These factors collectively contribute to the company’s robust financial health and promising growth prospects. As Alibaba continues to build on these strengths, it is well-positioned for future success.
Missa da Requiem ~MiserereWeekly Chart, so this May take a while.
but it will be worth it!
Short, at $255ish, Cover $219 or Lower. Juice with some PUTS, Lemon, ice gently Shaken, not Stirred
yippee Ki-yay... Hombres
A planet of playthings, we dance on the strings of powers we cannot perceive
TESLA ShortNASDAQ:TSLA
Tesla is known to drift higher after a negative earnings report, which it successfully proved this time around. Looking at the indicators, I assume that the top has been reached. Fundamentally, there is nothing to support further price increases. I am anticipating the closing of the gap that formed right after the recent low.
Should You Short Tesla? A Look at China's Potential RisksShould You Short Tesla? A Look at China's Market Rebound and Potential Risks
Tesla (TSLA) stock has been on a downward spiral in 2024, and some investors are considering shorting the stock. This strategy involves borrowing shares, selling them at a high price, hoping the price falls, and then repurchasing them at a lower price to return to the lender. While China's electric vehicle (EV) market rebound and competition from local players present challenges for Tesla, shorting the stock comes with significant risks.
China's EV Market Rebound: A Double-Edged Sword
China, the world's largest EV market, experienced a slow start in 2024 due to various factors, including supply chain disruptions and COVID-19 lockdowns. However, recent reports indicate a significant rebound in April. This is good news for the overall EV industry, but it's a mixed bag for Tesla.
Tesla's China Woes:
• Sales Slump: While Chinese EV makers like BYD and NIO reported strong sales growth in April, Tesla's sales in China dropped significantly compared to the previous month. This could be due to a combination of factors:
o Increased Competition: Chinese manufacturers are offering a wider range of EVs at competitive price points, catering to local preferences.
o Brand Perception: Recent quality control issues and negative publicity might be impacting consumer trust in Tesla.
Headwinds for Tesla:
Beyond China, there are other concerns for Tesla:
• Job Cuts and Demand Concerns: Tesla's recent job cuts fueled speculation about weakening global demand, potentially leading to production slowdowns.
• Macroeconomic Factors: Rising interest rates and inflation could dampen consumer spending on high-priced EVs.
• Increased Competition: Legacy automakers are aggressively entering the EV market with advanced technology and established production capabilities.
The Case Against Shorting Tesla
Despite these challenges, shorting Tesla comes with inherent risks:
• Short Squeeze: If Tesla's stock price unexpectedly rises, short sellers face significant losses as they scramble to repurchase shares at a higher price. Tesla has a large and passionate fanbase who might jump in to buy the dip, further squeezing short positions.
• Elon Musk Factor: Tesla CEO Elon Musk is known for his unpredictable actions and ability to rally investor sentiment. A positive announcement or innovation could trigger a sharp stock price increase, catching short sellers off guard.
• Long-Term Potential: Tesla remains a leader in EV technology and innovation. The company continues to invest in R&D and expand its production capacity, potentially positioning itself for future growth.
Alternative Strategies
Instead of shorting Tesla, investors might consider these options:
• Put Options: Put options allow investors to profit if the stock price falls. This strategy offers limited downside risk compared to shorting.
• Investing in Competitors: Investors could look at Chinese EV companies that are gaining market share, potentially benefiting from the rebounding market.
• Hedging: Combining long positions in Tesla with short positions in other EV stocks can create a more balanced portfolio.
Conclusion
A Traders’ Week Ahead Playbook: The tables have turned for riskWhile we await earnings from Nvidia (on 22 May) that will be influential on future market direction, we move into the tail-end of US quarterly earnings, but also past a dovish Fed meeting, a strong US ECI report and weaker-than-expected US nonfarm payrolls and 2 hefty bouts of MoF/BoJ intervention.
Yet, despite these landmines, a gentle calm descends over financial markets – early last week the USD was threatening to trend higher, but now momentum shifts to the downside, with US Treasuries finding better buyers, US interest rate markets pricing close to two cuts by year-end, while the VIX index has pulled back to 13.5%, with the S&P500 closing above the 29 April high.
By way of significant movers - aside from a lazy 25% w/w fall in Cocoa and a 32% w/w gain in Nat Gas – where NG needs to be on the radar given the breakout and the growing potential for a bullish trend to materialise, we see solid movement in the HK50 (closing 6.9% wow), while Bitcoin has rallied 10% off its lows and is eyeing a move back to the 50-day MA at 65,890. In FX, CADJPY saw the biggest 5-day percentage change, falling 3.6% w/w.
The MAG7 equity names look to have regained their mojo, amid solid earnings and some lofty guidance for capex - suggesting growth and innovation remain at the core of their investment thesis, backed by renewed buybacks and some big names even rolling out dividends. China tech is also flying higher, where both Tencent and Alibaba have run hard of late and while overbought should be well supported into weakness.
How the tables have turned, and the reassuring view from Fed Chair Jay Powell that policy is still “sufficiently restrictive” and “it’s unlikely the next policy move will be a hike” has reinvigorated the risk bulls. Add in a weaker US ISM services print and a moderation in US nonfarm payrolls (NFP) and the market has gained greater confidence that the US economy is not indeed overheating. Conviction levels may still be low, but the platform is in place for risky assets to move higher this week, notably if truce talks in Gaza gain real traction.
Looking ahead and the landmines through which we navigate positions:
US data is thin on the ground this coming week, with the senior loan officer survey on bank lending practices really the only economic event risk to be concerned with – traders can trade the KRE ETF (US Regional bank ETF) here and react to markets interpretation of the survey. We also get 11 speeches from Fed members, but until we get the US (April) CPI report on 15 May, I suspect traders will not be too concerned with holding risk over their respective views.
It will be a lively week at a central bank level, with the RBA (on hold), BoE (on hold), Swedish Riksbank (skewed to cut), Banxico (cut) and Brazilian Central Bank (50bp cut) all meeting.
We should get a 25bp cut in Mexico, with a 50bp cut expected to the Brazilian Selic rate.
The RBA meeting and Statement on Monetary policy will get big focus, and while the RBA will almost certainly keep rates at 4.35%, and continue to suggest “the board is not ruling anything in or out”, Aussie swaps price a near 40% chance of a hike by August (see pricing below), so many are expecting a modest shift in their commentary and a clearer roadmap to future hikes – if we don’t see that play out in the wording then we could see the AUD trade lower, notably vs the FX cross rates.
The GBP navigates Thursday’s BoE meeting, with the broad consensus expecting a dovish split in the voting and a statement that justifies the view priced into interest rate pricing, where the BoE is expected to embark on its first cut in August. We also get UK Q1 GDP, a speech by BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill and 1-year inflation expectations from the DMP (Decision Makers Panel), and that could be looked at by some in the market. GBPJPY and GBPAUD shorts, EURGBP longs, were the preferred plays last week, and I still favour these staying in these positions.
Wednesday’s Riksbank meeting puts the SEK (Swedish krona) firmly in play, with economists split on whether we see the Swedish central bank join the Swiss National Bank in starting its easing cycle. The SEK swaps market implies a 25bp cut at around 80% probability, so those holding SEK short positions will have some concern with that position over this event. The risk-to-reward trade-off favours short NOKSEK over the meeting, but a 25bp cut is a lineball call and as many will attest to, trading over news like this is more of an exercise in risk management, or for those running tactical or special situation strategies.
We also see inflation prints in Mexico, Norway, Columbia, Chile, Brazil, and China. Trade data (Thursday – no set time) from China will also get a focus, with imports expected to increase by 4%.
In Japan, I guess kudos go to the MoF/BoJ - they hit JPY shorts hard with two bouts on size intervention and as luck would have it, they’ve been given a helping hand from Jay Powell and the first below estimate NFP print since October 2023. Those using the JPY to fund a saturated carry position will almost certainly think twice about using the JPY tactically here in the near term, and until we see a better trend in the US data, or if we see a hotter US CPI print, USDJPY has scope for ¥150. Conversely, on the week, I’d be expecting the upside to be capped at ¥155 and would be selling rallies into ¥155.50.
As always, an open mind to market movement (as price will always go to where it wants to go), and a dynamic approach to react will serve you well in this market.
$TSLA Bull Flag With Our Algo Buy AlertNASDAQ:TSLA Bull Flag with our algo buy alert, also closed above the 20- and the 50-day moving averages. Now we are looking for bullish consolidation and a break higher.
Dogecoin Now Payment Method in Tesla Inc., DOGE Price Rally 20%Elon Musk, the CEO of Tesla, has reportedly added Dogecoin ( CRYPTOCAP:DOGE ) as a payment method for some Tesla products, leading to a 20% increase in the CRYPTOCAP:DOGE price. The move follows a month-long hindrance by Musk about accepting Dogecoin as an official form of payment for Tesla vehicles. Traders immediately responded to the news, with the DOGE price skyrocketing over 20% in the last 24 hours, with the price changing hands at $0.16.
Tesla products can only be purchased through a Dogecoin wallet, and all eligible Tesla products will be clearly priced in Dogecoin. However, there are terms when making Dogecoin payments, including not accepting payments from multiple wallets for a single order, unable to cancel an order once placed, and not applicable returns for items purchased with Dogecoin.
Meanwhile, Tesla has not confirmed whether Dogecoin is an acceptable payment for Tesla cars. In March, Musk hyped up the meme coin at the Tesla Gigafactory near Berlin, Germany, and said he thinks the company should enable it at some point.
The CRYPTOCAP:DOGE price has risen more than 20% in the past 24 hours, currently trading at $0.16. The 24-hour low and high are $0.137 and $0.161, respectively. Trading volume has surged over 90% in the last 24 hours, indicating massive interest among traders. Total Dogecoin futures open interest has increased by 26% over 24 hours and a more than 9% jump in open interest in the past 4 hours, indicating massive buying from futures traders.
TOYOTA 254 TP AFTER EARNINGS !! Toyota’s Earnings Report Highlights
Third-Quarter Fiscal 2024 Performance:
On February 6th, 2024, Toyota Motor Corporation reported its third-quarter fiscal 2024 earnings.
The company posted earnings per share (EPS) of $6.81, significantly surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.66.
Toyota’s consolidated revenues for the quarter were $81.5 billion, beating analyst estimates of $73.7 billion.
Investment Strategy and Hybrid Vehicles:
Toyota’s strategy of focusing on hybrid vehicles rather than electric vehicles (EVs) has paid off.
While many automakers are heavily investing in EVs, Toyota’s commitment to hybrid technology has resonated with consumers and investors.
Sales Volume and Operating Income:
A year-over-year improvement in sales volume likely bolstered Toyota’s results in the third quarter.
However, operating income in China declined due to fluctuations in foreign exchange rates and increased selling expenses.
Market Confidence and Future Outlook
Toyota’s strong financial performance, innovative approach, and consistent growth have instilled confidence in investors. As the automotive industry continues to evolve, Toyota’s hybrid focus positions it well for the future.
ROBLOX 46 AFTER EARNINGS ? Q1 2024 Performance:
On February 7th, 2024, Roblox Corporation reported its first-quarter 2024 financial results.
The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter were -$0.52, surpassing the consensus estimate of -$0.57 by $0.05.
Roblox’s revenue during the quarter was $1.13 billion, exceeding analysts’ expectations of $1.05 billion.
The company’s revenue growth was impressive, showing a 25.3% increase year-over-year1.
User Engagement and Growth:
Roblox’s success is driven by its strong user base and developer community.
The platform witnessed significant growth in average daily active users (DAUs), which surged by 79% to 42.1 million.
Hours engaged on the platform reached 16 billion, reflecting a 20% year-over-year increase.
Bookings grew by an impressive 161% year-over-year.
Analyst Expectations:
Analysts at Roth MKM maintain a buy rating on Roblox shares and have set a price target of $554.
JP Morgan analyst Cory Carpenter upgraded Roblox from Neutral to Overweight, raising the price target from $41 to $48. Carpenter highlighted the company’s consistent bookings growth over the past four quarters and projected first-quarter bookings of $927 million5.
Market Confidence and Future Prospects
Roblox’s innovative platform, expanding user base, and strong financial performance have instilled confidence in investors. As the company continues to enhance its offerings and attract more users, its stock price may continue to rise.
Robinhood TP 23- 33 After earnings ? Reasons Why !!
In Q4 2023, Robinhood’s net revenues increased by 24% year-over-year to $471 million.
This growth was driven by higher net interest, transaction-based, and other revenues1.
The company reported net income of $30 million, a significant improvement from the net loss of $166 million in Q4 20221.
Adjusted EBITDA rose to $133 million, a 62% increase year-over-year1.
Customer Growth and Assets Under Custody (AUC):
Funded Customers increased by 420 thousand year-over-year to 23.4 million1.
AUC surged by 65% year-over-year to $102.6 billion1.
Market Expectations and Confidence
Robinhood’s ability to turn a profit in Q4, coupled with its record annual revenues, suggests that its strategic initiatives are paying off. The company’s innovative features and strong financial performance have instilled confidence in investors.
Remember that stock prices often respond to earnings reports. If the market believes a company is performing well, stock prices tend to go up. Conversely, if confidence wanes, stock prices may decline2.
Keep an eye on Robinhood’s upcoming earnings report on Wednesday, May 8th, 20243. It will provide further insights into the company’s performance and may impact its stock price.
$RIVN 15 DOLLARS AFTER EARNINGS ? NASDAQ:RIVN 15 DOLLARS AFTER EARNINGS ?
Rivian Automotive has confirmed that its next quarterly earnings report will be published on Tuesday, May 7th, 20241.
The earnings conference call is scheduled for 5:00 PM Eastern on the same day1.
Stock Price Movement:
As of now, Rivian’s stock price stands at $9.21 per share1.
The stock has been volatile, and investors are closely watching its performance.
Market Expectations
While Rivian has faced challenges, including supply chain disruptions and production delays, the market remains optimistic about its long-term prospects. The company’s plans to expand its fast-charging network and its innovative electric truck and SUV models have garnered attention.
Keep an eye on Rivian’s stock price after the earnings report. If the company delivers positive surprises, we might see movement toward your mentioned target of $15 per share. However, stock prices are influenced by various factors, so it’s essential to stay informed.
TESLA Set To Fall! SELL!
My dear subscribers,
This is my opinion on the TESLA next move:
The instrument tests an important psychological level 181.20
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bearish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market.
Target - 167.46
My Stop Loss - 190.37
About Used Indicators:
On the subsequent day, trading above the pivot point is thought to indicate ongoing bullish sentiment, while trading below the pivot point indicates bearish sentiment.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
⭐️ XAU/USD : NFP's effects on $GOLD (IMPORTANT ANALYSIS)Upon reviewing gold in the weekly timeframe, we observe that the price is trading around $2298. If the NFP data is announced to be higher than the forecasted rate, it will strengthen the dollar index and consequently cause a significant drop in gold prices! Should this occur and gold stabilizes below $2300, we can expect a fall in gold prices to lower levels such as (in order) $2268, $2243, $2229, and $2222.
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
💎 GTAI/USDT : More Bullish ? +37% so far ! (READ THE CAPTION)By checking the GTAI/USDT chart, we can see that the price entered the range of our desired demand zone ($1.60 to $1.77) and after that the price increased to $2.36 with a 37% growth! Now, the price is trading in the range of $1.83, by stabilizing the price above the specified demand range, we can expect the growth of this cryptocurrency again! The expected yield in the short term is between 20% to 50%!
THE MAIN ANALYSIS :
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
Tesla - Is it a fakeout?Hello Traders and Investors, today I will take a look at Tesla.
--------
Explanation of my video analysis:
Back in 2020 we had a decent break and retest on Tesla stock which was followed by a pump of +1.500% towards the upside. Then Tesla topped out in 2021 and we saw sideways movement ever since. At the moment Tesla stock is trading in a bullish flag formation and is hovering around the psychological $200 level. Soon there will be a very interesting trading opportunity on Tesla stock.
--------
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
Apple Earnings Boost Stock to 182 ? Reasons Why
Apple’s Fiscal 2024 First Quarter Results:
Apple reported its financial results for the first quarter of fiscal year 2024, which ended on December 30, 2023. Here are the key highlights:
Revenue: The company posted quarterly revenue of $119.6 billion, representing a 2 percent year-over-year increase.
Earnings Per Share (EPS): Quarterly earnings per diluted share reached $2.18, marking a 16 percent year-over-year growth.
Services Revenue: Apple achieved an all-time record in services revenue during this quarter.
Active Devices: The installed base of active Apple devices surpassed 2.2 billion, reaching an all-time high across all products and geographic segments.
Cash Flow and Dividends: Apple generated nearly $40 billion of operating cash flow and returned almost $27 billion to shareholders. The company’s board of directors declared a cash dividend of $0.24 per share of common stock, payable on February 15, 2024.
Long Idea and Earnings Impact:
While the earnings report reflects strong performance, it’s essential to consider the broader market context and analysts’ expectations.
Analysts estimate an average EPS of $1.41 for Apple’s second quarter of 2024, with a range between $1.32 and $1.45.
As an investor, you might want to assess factors such as:
iPhone Sales: The growth in iPhone sales significantly contributed to Apple’s revenue. Monitor iPhone demand trends and product launches.
Services Segment: Services revenue hit a record high. Evaluate the sustainability of this growth.
Margin Expansion: The all-time record EPS resulted from margin expansion. Understand the drivers behind this improvement.
Dividends: Apple’s consistent dividend payments provide income for long-term investors.
Tesla among top 10 losers. Next what?Tesla is the 7th worst performer YTD in the Nasdaq-100. It is the 11th worst performer in the S&P 500. The stock stands 28% lower.
Still, after reaching its lowest level on 22/April, the stock has rallied a remarkable 30%. On 24/April, the stock rallied 12% after the positive earnings call. On 29/April, the stock jumped another 15% after the announcement of the Baidu ( HKEX:9888 ) partnership.
Yet in the longer term, outlook remains cloudy as margin compression owing to fierce competition from Chinese EV makers and the wider EV industry slowdown.
MUSK'S CHINA VISIT LEADS TO BAIDU DEAL
Last Sunday, Elon Musk flew to China on a surprise visit. The last minute visit led to speculation over a push to launch full self driving (FSD) in China.
Persons close to the matter stated that Musk was expected to discuss the rollout of FSD software and permission to transfer data overseas, as reported in Reuters .
One of the key hold-ups for the rollout of FSD in China has been access to map data. Musk’s recent trip seems to have addressed that as Tesla announced a partnership with Baidu for map data access. While, Musk has long claimed that Teslas will be able to run FSD without map data, this will allow them to roll-out the offering much sooner and boost the slowing revenue in one of their leading markets in China.
FSD has been a recent revenue driver for Tesla. In 2024, Siena Capital analysts estimated that Tesla recognized almost USD 700 million in revenue, which represents 4.3% of their automotive revenue after stripping regulatory credits.
BYD PARTNERSHIP
Another strategic partnership that has helped boost investor sentiment at Tesla has been the strategic partnership with BYD ( HKEX:1211 ).
While both companies are major competitors, BYD recently overtook Tesla as the largest EV manufacturer in terms of overall vehicle sales (including hybrids). However, the fierce competition has also taken a toll on both companies as it has led to price cuts to win over more customers.
That’s why a technology-sharing partnership between the two companies is positive. While, they continue to compete, the partnership – specifically related to the use of BYD’s LFP battery technology in certain low-cost Tesla models – remains a positive for Tesla as it allows them to diversify their battery supply chain, reduce production costs, and enhance range for their lower-cost models.
LOW-COST MODELS COMING SOONER THAN EXPECTED
A recent hurdle for Tesla has been delay behind the upcoming low-cost Model 2 vehicle which plays a pivotal role in Tesla’s growth strategy. According to a Reuters report , Tesla had opted to cancel or indefinitely postpone plans for the upcoming Model 2. Instead, it would focus its attention on Robo-Taxis. The low-cost car represented the next phase of Musk’s long-term master plan to produce affordable electric vehicles through manufacturing process improvements.
Fears were that fierce competition in the low-cost category by Chinese manufacturers would make Tesla’s efforts unfeasible.
Yet, Elon Musk disputed the Reuters report and at the Q1 earnings investor call, it was verified. The Model 2 strategy is still on track. In fact, it may come sooner than expected at the end of 2024. Musk stated that Tesla was accelerating the launch of more affordable models that will be available to produce on its existing manufacturing lines.
Tesla aims to fully utilize its current production capacity towards these efforts and grow manufacturing 50% over 2023 before they start investing in new manufacturing lines.
Additionally, the robo-taxi push is also underway. Elon Musk stated that Tesla will launch its long-awaited robo-taxi product as soon as 8/August/2024. The autonomous driving robo-taxis will earn revenue for their owners. Moreover, owners will be able to add their Tesla's to the robo-taxi shared fleet with just one click on the Tesla app.
BEARISH CLOUDS PERSIST
Despite these recent developments, the outlook for Tesla remains undeniably cloudy. At its Q1 earnings, Tesla reported dismal results. But it’s not just Tesla which is struggling, it’s the wider EV industry.
EARNINGS SUMMARY
Tesla's Q1 2024 earnings report released on 23/April revealed a challenging quarter marked by margin compression and a slowdown in electric vehicle (EV) sales, influenced by strategic price cuts and broader economic factors.
Financially, Tesla reported a reduction in its automotive gross margin to 17.4%, down from previous quarter, reflecting the impact of significant price reductions across its model lineup intended to stimulate demand amid a softening global market.
These price adjustments, while successful in driving a short-term uptick in sales volumes, did not fully counterbalance the revenue per unit loss, leading to an overall revenue of $21.3 billion and earnings per share (EPS) of $0.45, both figures below analyst expectations. Quarterly revenue and deliveries were the lowest since 2022.
One of the bright spots has been Tesla’s efforts to control costs. Not only did the company recently announce layoffs. It also stated that it would slow the growth of its Supercharger network to bring costs under control.
Moreover, investors were not as concerned about the concerning financials following the investor call where Musk re-affirmed Tesla’s long-term strategy while maintaining that Tesla would remain lean by producing the new lineup on existing manufacturing lines, assuaging fears of spiraling costs.
Critical to note that it is not just Tesla which struggled in Q1. BYD also reported that its profits fell 47% YoY. Vehicle sales also slowed QoQ. It is the wider industry that is experiencing a slowdown.
Unfortunately for Tesla, margin compression is more concerning for it compared to its Chinese competitors. Particularly as Chinese manufacturers are able to keep costs lower with help from government subsidies. Not only does the Chinese government offer direct subsidies to manufacturers, it also offers subsidies for EV buyers in China which has led to a boom in EV sales, which has benefited Chinese EV manufacturers.
Economic slowdown from high interest rates and a domestic slowdown in China may keep EV sales subdued for some time. In which case, Tesla would be forced to continue with its price cuts which would continue to pressure margins.
TESLA'S FINANCES STRAINED UNTIL AFFORDABLE MODEL LAUNCH
With recent positive news, Tesla stock has recovered sharply. Yet, it remains one of the worst performing stocks in the S&P 500 YTD.
Bearish clouds persist for Tesla as margin compression continues due to competitive price cuts by Tesla. Amid an industry-wide sales slowdown, Tesla may be forced to continue with its strategy to offer price discounts on its cars, keeping its margins pressured. Moreover, Tesla continues to face pressure from low-cost Chinese EVs until it can launch its own low cost models.
While, Tesla’s new models are expected sooner than expected, they are still several quarters away. In the meantime, fundamental factors are likely to continue impacting Tesla’s profitability and subsequently its stock.
FUD: Tesla Sells BTC - My Bitcoin Buy ZoneFUD NEWS FROM ELON MUSK: Tesla sells off $1.5B USD worth of Bitcoin. Elon Musk "needs cash" but "will buy Bitcoin again" someday.
This news has caused a panic dump but I remain bullish. $1.5B sold out of the over $430B Bitcoin market cap is only around 0.345%. Not an impressive number. The dip is purely FUD. Elon Musk has a lot of sheep following his moves.
Although I remain careful not to buy within the first 3 days. FUD can be powerful.
I used Heiken Ashi candlesticks to highlight the fact that we are still in a bullish market from a weekly perspective.
1 BTC = 1 BTC
HodL
This is not investment advice.
