Members Daily Analysis Jan 25Tesla Pummeled down 12% & Losing Mag 7 status.
INTC poor earning reaction, weighing on Semiconductors
Oil absolute definitive breakout.
Dollar looks ready to pop.
Vix creeping up.
Tesla
TESLA - IF THE SHOW MUST GO ON, IT IS NOW! (TARGET $315)The markets are starting strong this year except for one late bloomer: TESLA! But I thinks it is time for Musk's prodigy to go fourth to new heights. Here's my perspective on things:
What is on the chart?
1) An attractive liquidity level that will be our swing target of $315 (oh no spoiler alert).
2) We have not only a bullish gap but also a bullish weekly FVG that accompanied the break of structure (high taken out that shifted the market structure from bearish to bullish).
3) Huge accumulation structure which clearly to me is bullish but who knows maybe a Cybertruck will drive into a playground (jk).
4) This is the biggest driver (vroom vroom) of this analysis. A huge weekly wick in a weekly bullish GAP. What else do you want?
5) Our last chance to enter. If we're bullish, this is where you want to enter. Price is giving you a gift. Take it.
6) This would mark the continuation of the bullish price action. A higher high is often under looked and can provide enough info for a strong reliable bias.
7) This is our primary target. Nothing else to say here.
As always, happy trading and enjoy your weekend!! ;)
Looking at Possible Dead Cat Bounce Levels After TSLA EarningsDepending on investor sentiment, I am expecting 3 possibilities, listed from most positive to least positive investor sentiment:
In Purple (most positive): Bounce to $196-$198 fib levels, decaying to $188-192 range.
In Yellow: Bounce to $192-$194 fib levels, decaying to $184-186 range.
In red (worst): Little to no bounce, very pessimistic view on stock, decaying straight to $180-182.
If we hit red, or maybe even yellow, we are looking at a rough 2024 (See my triple top and dip Idea.)
Tesla Faces Headwinds: EV Fleet Sale and Intense Price WarTesla experienced a notable setback, with its stock falling as much as 4.2% during Friday's trading session. This decline marks the 11th drop in 12 sessions. The dip follows Hertz Global Holdings Inc.'s announcement of plans to sell off a third of its U.S. electric-vehicle fleet, contributing to the downward pressure on Tesla's shares.
Adding to the challenges, Tesla has been navigating a complex landscape in China. Since late 2022, the company has engaged in a series of price cuts, triggering responses from other manufacturers and putting pressure on profit margins across the industry. Domestic players like Xpeng Inc. and BYD Co., as well as global giants like Volkswagen AG, have joined the price-cutting competition to defend their market share
Technically we have a good opportunity to position, but as I always advise in my posts don't take full size position before the move is already happening. 0.5 Risk now with another addition of 0.5 to the full risk which as a Risk Management should not be more than 1-2% of the total portfolio.
BOOST THE IDEA AND COMMENT YOUR OPINION
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Tesla's $50 Bil Plunge: Navigating Challenges & the Road Ahead
In a shocking turn of events, Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ), the world's most valuable electric carmaker, saw its stock plummet by over 12%, wiping out a staggering $50 billion in market capitalization. The nosedive came on the heels of disappointing Q4 earnings, where Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) reported a 40% decline in earnings per share and warned of potentially lower growth in 2024. CEO Elon Musk attributed the slump to a price war with a Chinese-made rival, impacting the company's bottom line.
Challenges and Margin Pressures:
Tesla's fourth-quarter earnings fell short of analysts' expectations, with a gross margin of 17.6%, compared to 23.8% a year earlier. Automotive gross margin, a closely watched figure, dropped to 17.2%, reflecting a price war-induced strain. Musk acknowledged the challenges, particularly the pressure on profit margins, and warned that the company does not have a clear picture of how margins will evolve in 2024.
Redwood Initiative:
In a bid to revitalize growth, Musk announced an ambitious initiative to launch a new mass-market electric vehicle code-named "Redwood" by mid-2025. Described as a compact crossover, this move is crucial for Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) as it seeks to stay competitive and navigate the evolving landscape of the electric vehicle market. The announcement, however, raised questions about the timeline and potential impact on Tesla's ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) overall strategy.
Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment:
Unsurprisingly, Tesla's stock experienced a 12% decline, reaching $181.70 in Thursday's market action. With Musk's recent push to increase his stake from 13% to 25%, and his ambitious vision for Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) to become a leader in AI and robotics, investor sentiment has become a focal point. Musk's demand for more shares and voting power adds another layer of complexity to the company's future trajectory.
2024 Outlook and Uncertainties:
As Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) braces for a year of potential challenges, Musk emphasized the importance of executing key projects such as the next-generation vehicle, energy storage, and full self-driving. However, uncertainties linger, including the impact of ongoing price cuts, supply-demand dynamics in the electric vehicle market, and the evolving regulatory landscape.
Conclusion:
Tesla's recent financial turbulence underscores the inherent volatility of the electric vehicle sector. The Redwood initiative, though promising, adds an element of uncertainty to the company's future. As Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) navigates the challenges posed by a price war, shifting profit margins, and the impending launch of Redwood, stakeholders will be closely watching to see how the electric car giant adapts to this pivotal moment in its journey. The unfolding narrative of Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) in 2024 promises to be a story of resilience, innovation, and strategic decision-making.
Unlocking Tesla's Potentials: A Deep Dive into Elliott WavesTesla's chart remains intriguing, particularly on the two-hour time frame. It's evident that we've experienced a Wave 1 structure after hitting the low at $194. Following that, a Wave A unfolded with a three-wave structure (abc), followed by another B with an overshooting flat pattern (abc). My current belief is that we're still in the process of forming Wave C /Wave (2). This wave should find support between 50% and 78.6%, and anything below could indicate a return to $194. I've placed my stop-loss at 50%, aiming for at least a short-term rise to $300, approximately 34%.
$180 possible by Friday (From Historical data) $TSLABoth Q2 and Q3 2023 earnings reports had negative news for investors, and both had a subsequent drop in their stock value:
Post Q2 earnings report in July: Stock dropped by 12%.
Post Q3 earnings report in October: Stock dropped by 15%
If the stock doesn't hold support at $200, which is currently resistance as of the PM, we may see Tesla hit $190 as the next support tomorrow, following $180 with lower probability if $190 doesn't hold.
Another year to wait for the upTesla looks to release their next gen Vehicle 2nd half 2025 and chart shows good timing for the next upside but sideways until then
Tesla : After the rain comes sunshineTesla had a nice rally from 100 to 300 in an impulsive wave up after an ABC corrective wave from the all time high. Since hitting 300 price has moved down in a corrective wave lower. This move is a wave 2 and could go to 180 ( 76.4% of wave a of 2 + 61.8% retracement of wave 1 ) or even to 150 ( equal legs inside wave 2 + 76.4% retracement of wave 2 ).
Line in the sand for this wave 2 is the 101.81 low, anything below this invalidates this count.
Look for price to move higher in an impulsive wave as wave 3 will start after hitting the wave 2 low. Eventually price will break the trendline from the all time high, move above 300 again and hunt for the all time high.
Alternative count would have price in a wave C instead of wave 3. This would still break 300 but will turn around down before hitting all time highs. This would also mean that price will break the 100 low, or ...more rain ahead...
$TSLA Double Bottom Day TradeNASDAQ:TSLA Double Bottom Day Trade
The technical analysis reveals the presence of a double bottom pattern in the market. This pattern suggests a potential trend reversal, indicating that after a downtrend, the security or asset has reached a low price twice with a moderate increase in price in between. Traders often consider the double bottom as a bullish signal, anticipating a possible upward movement in the future.
Avoid Tesla-Jan 24 2024This green box is the origin of this rally, which is also a poor Dz, but again, it's the origin, and below it is another support. It is good enough to ruin short sellers' gain .
The End of a Tesla Era! Tesla missed on earnings. Huge decline for this leading EV stock.
Tesla was already getting oversold on the daily chart, & now with this decline its a salavating opportunity for day traders.
I still think the true swing trade level is a bit lower from here. This weekly close will tell us more.
We have included an analysis of the XLY sector (Consumer Discretionary). We discuss 3 signals that have only ever happened over a 25 year period. The weekly Golden Cross.
Often this Weekly Golden cross is bullish long term but historically weak price follows in the short term.
Shaky long-term trading for Tesla (Triple top + dip? )Since Oct. '21, Tesla has been trading along this channel. Some patterns emerge that we can point out:
After hitting the top of the channel three times from Oct. 21 to Apr. 22, it was followed by a dip to the bottom of the channel.
To a lesser degree, rising to about .75 the height of the channel on July 22 and hitting that region 3 times, this was also followed by a dip to the bottom of the channel.
We currently have the same pattern emerging since July '23, with the price of TSLA dipping to below $200. This cycle is interesting because it is bouncing off the midline instead of the bottom of the channel.
The next few days are going to be crucial for the stock:
Bull case: If the stock can consolidate strongly along the $180-200, we may be able to break out of the channel to the upside.
Bear case: If the stock fails to consolidate strongly along the $180-200 range, we may see a dip to $120-160.
This will strongly depend on investor sentiment in the company, which currently isn't looking strong. A lot can happen in the next few weeks to turn that around, such as further advancements of AI for Tesla's autopilot.
LCID analysis ⏰ let's discuss :-: Hello 👋 it's me your RAJ 🙂 professional trader ✨
This idea 💡
is completely my own analysis to explain situation _&_ market conditions of NASDAQ:LCID
How this chart valid for long term 📌 explained clearly based on technical #TA 📌 #DYOR
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Frankly speaking 🗣️ I am full time trader in Crypto 🔮 part time in stocks to save my money 💰
Based on my friend request , i am doing 📌 analysis ⏰ based on technical analysis #TA
I don't know it's fundamental and some other things to measure this as potential or bad stock based on technical i will talk 🦜
If u have experience and good knowledge in stock market especially usstock
Pls let me know about this company NASDAQ:LCID it helps me to check price in other conditions
:-) let's go 👀
In my opinion || chart 📉📈 looking too bad // continues downfall
Best area enter is ::👉 $2.6 - $4.1 👈
Best area to exit 🎯 :: $5.3 - $10.4 - $17 - $34
Stop 🛑 when price goes below $2.5 weekend candle close below Invalid 📌 to invest
Don't use 100% liquid 💰 it's high risk , so prefer 5-10% liquid 💰 on ur portfolio
Let me know points to consider on this stock , so i work and i will submit u those
👀 I always do analysis on crypto stocks _&_ large cap // rest of things i don't know much
__________________________________________________________________________________________
🪩 disclaimer :
▶️ TQ u for supporting 💚 follow idea 💡 get updates everytime ⏰ when I updated 📌
Note 👀
👉 keeping comments , reacting with emojis , pointing us is very easy to some people
They think 💬 what they see 📌 that was knowledge 📌
We need to learn market in many ways and should get adopted with experience, TECHNICAL ANALYSIS won't help understanding market structure and understanding bull 🐂 and bear 🐻 is more important
Economical conditions
Fundamentals
Technical
News
Sentiments
Checking macro to micro having good plan and build it is very important ☺️
Some Times market easily turn suddenly bear // bull 🤣 even we need to catch 🫴 those movements is also very important ☺️ 💛
I hope i cleared my view 🙂 if any points if I miss I will add in update 📌 post
Try to understand, try to learn - try to move with flexibility with market is important
Have good day 😊
Tesla - Make It Or Break ItHello Traders, welcome to today's analysis of Tesla.
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Explanation of my video analysis:
In 2020 we saw a major triangle breakout on Tesla which was followed by an incredible pump of +1.500%. Since 2021 Tesla has been again trading in a triangle pattern with support at the $120 level and at the $200 level. If Tesla breaks above the trendline mentioned in the analysis, I am looking for long setups. But Tesla could still also break below the $200 support area.
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I will only take a trade if all the rules of my strategy are satisfied.
Let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions.
Keep your long term vision.
What Color Is Your Tesla 🚘Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders,
On Weekly: Left Chart
TSLA has been hovering inside a range between the $200 support and $300 resistance.
Lately, TSLA has been bearish trading inside the falling blue channel and it is currently approaching the lower bound and $200.0 support.
🏹 Hence , as long as the 185.0 support holds, we will be looking for buy setups on lower timeframes.
On H1: Right Chart
📈 For the bulls to take over, we need a momentum candle close above the last major high in gray at 218.0
📉 Meanwhile , TSLA would be bearish and can still trade lower to dive inside the 185-200 support zone before trading higher.
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Richard Nasr
TSLA Tesla Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought the dip on TSLA stock:
nor sold the regional top:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of TSLA Tesla prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 220usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-2-16,
for a premium of approximately $7.05.
The stock is also oversold on the Daily timeframe. Looks primed for a rebound!
TSLA Stock going upDespite Tesla (TSLA) hitting the resistance level at $208, my analysis suggests the stock won't break through this barrier just yet. However, I'm optimistic about its trajectory. The resistance has tested the stock's resilience, and it's holding steady, indicating a solid foundation. The current market dynamics, combined with Tesla's robust fundamentals, lead me to believe we're on the cusp of an uptrend. While it's essential to approach with caution, given the resistance hurdle, the indicators I'm observing support a positive outlook for TSLA's near future.
Decide: Buy or Sell - Netflix vs. Tesla EarningsSome analysts anticipate that Netflix's stock could reach a new 52-week high above $500 per share following the release of its fourth-quarter earnings report this Tuesday. The $506 mark is considered a target, representing the price it fell to at the beginning of 2022.
Positive sentiment towards Netflix has grown as profit estimates have been revised upward 17 times since the last earnings report. The company's revenue is expected to increase by 11% annually to $8.71 billion, driven by the introduction of a new, lower-cost, ad-supported basic subscription tier and efforts to combat illegal password-sharing.
If the forecasted revenue materializes, it will mark the highest quarterly sales total in Netflix's 17-year history, representing an 11% increase from the previous period to $8.7 billion.
However, this quarter's earnings might not live up to the company’s last earnings call, which generated a ~15% bump.
Meanwhile, Tesla's fourth-quarter update, scheduled for release on Wednesday after the close, may have a different trajectory. Tesla shares declined by 4.4% after the last earnings report, experiencing their third consecutive earnings-reaction-day selloff.
A fourth occurrence is possible, although it's also possible that the bottom is in. It will likely come down to whether investors are disappointed in their forward guidance for the first quarter of 2024
Tesla's margins are expected to face pressure due to its ongoing price-slashing strategy in recent quarters. However, this might already be factored into the current stock price.
TSLA has shown a pattern of lower highs and lower lows since the peak in July 2023, and it remains to be seen if support will materialize at its support levels of $200 and $194.
TESLA EARNINGS 23 JAN 2024 PRICE ACTIONThis is complete price action for Tesla. I have clearly mentioned why it should not be traded.
NOTE:AVOID TRADING TESLA
Tesla reporting this week! $TSLATesla will report as soon as this Wednesday, Jan. 24, after the market close. Personally, I don't plan any trading activity here before the report. But at the moment the stock is in a technically interesting zone.
I see a double technical pattern here - Inv. Head and Shoulders. Based on the structure of the daily chart, the price is now in a potential right shoulder (RSh) zone, which could be a good area to start a position.
Meanwhile, the entire daily structure is a right shoulder (WkRsh) for the weekly pattern, which gives the current price zone more strength.
Of course, the report could break the technical pattern, but I will be watching and waiting for one of my triggers to occur.
TESLA: Bullish Continuation & Long Trade
TESLA
- Classic bullish setup
- Our team expects bullish continuation
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Long TESLA
Entry Point - 212.15
Stop Loss - 200.29
Take Profit - 239.94
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
A Traders’ Week Ahead Playbook: living in interesting times We reflect on the week that was and where the US equity markets stole the show, with new highs in the S&P500, and the NAS100 outperforming all major equity markets. A.I names went on a tear on Friday, where notably Nvidia, Broadcom and AMD felt the love. With 16% of the S&P500 market cap reporting this week, earnings and corporate outlooks will play a greater role in the price action – it is hard to be short these markets given the upbeat flow but it’s hard to chase as well.
Tesla and Netflix will be the trader favourites this week, with the options markets implying moves (on the day of reporting) of -/+ 5.4% and 7.5% respectively. Tesla needs to pull something out of the bag to turn sentiment around and we see price having lost 20% in the past 14 days. Netflix comes off the back of a 16.1% rally on the day of reporting Q323 numbers, so longs will be hoping for something similar, to take price above $500. A daily close below the 50-day MA and I’d be exiting longs.
Conversely, the HK50 and CHINAH were savaged by over 5% and shorts continue to be the play, although a surprise cut to the 1 & 5-year Prime Rate would cause a decent reversal higher.
Pushback from several central bankers on the start point and extent of rate cuts (priced into swaps markets) caused front-end bond yields to move higher last week, with the market reevaluating whether March is indeed the start date for many central banks to start a cutting cycle. In the case of the Fed, the implied probability has fallen to 50%, and this pricing should hold firm until we see core PCE print later in the week – The USD holds a fair relationship with the evolving implied pricing for a March Fed cut, where rate cut probability falls the USD rallies (and vice versa).
The USD was the best performing G10 currency last week but with the ECB meeting in play this week, there are reasons to think EURUSD could push back into the 1.0950/70 area. The NZD gets close attention given the Q4 CPI print due and we’re seeing signs of diverging paths between the RBA and RBNZ in market pricing – looking for NZDUSD shorts on a momentum move through 0.6100 and AUDNZD longs at current spot levels, adding on a close through the 200-day MA.
The flow and set-up in gold is a little messy and the price is chopping about – no real directional bias in the near term and would look at selling rallies on the week into $2055 and buying dips into $2000.
While Nat Gas is getting good attention given price is in freefall, Crude is also on the radar with rallies recently sold into $75.20 and dips bought at $70 – A break on either side of that range could be meaningful.
Politics also comes into focus with the New Hampshire REP primary held on Tuesday – it won’t be a market event but could pull Trump one step closer to becoming the REP nominee, a fate most fully expect.
Good luck to all.
Marquee economic data for traders to navigate:
• China 1 & 5-year Loan Prime Rate – After the PBoC surprised and left the Medium-Lending Facility (MLF) rate unchanged last week the market now assumes the PBoC will also leave the 1 & 5-year prime rate unchanged at 4.2% & 3.45% respectively. The CHINAH was the weakest major equity market last week (-6.5% wow) and could revisit the October 2023 lows unless we see something far more definitive from the Chinese authorities.
• BoJ meeting (23 Jan no set time) – this should be a low vol affair, where expectations for policy change at this meeting are incredibly low, and one would be highly surprised if the BoJ lift rates out of negative territory. Consider the BoJ will provide new CPI and GDP forecasts at this meeting, and they could be very telling of the future need to move away from a negative rate setting.
• NZ Q4 CPI (24 Jan 08:45 AEDT) – the market sees Q4 CPI running at 0.5% QoQ / 4.7% YoY (from 5.6%. This is a clear risk for NZD exposures, where the outcome could see the market questioning if the RBNZ cut before/later than current pricing (in swaps) to start easing in May with 91bp of cuts priced by year-end. I like AUDNZD upside on growing central bank policy divergence.
• EU HCOB manufacturing and services PMI (24 Jan 20:00 AEDT) – the market sees both surveys modestly improving at 44.8 (from 44.4) and 49.0 (48.8) respectively. A services PMI read above 50 would likely promote EUR buying.
• UK S&P manufacturing and services PMI (24 Jan 20:30 AEDT) – The consensus is that we see the manufacturing diffusion index improving a touch to 46.7 (from 46.2), while services should grow at a slower pace at 53.0 (53.4). GBPUSD is carving out a range of 1.2800 to 1.2600 and I’m happy to lean into these levels for now.
• US S&P global manufacturing and services PMI (25 Jan 01:45 AEDT) – the market looks for the manufacturing index to come in at 47.5 (from 47.9) and services at 51.0 (51.4). A services PMI print below 50 could cause some gyrations in the USD and equity.
• Norges Bank meeting (25 Jan 20:00 AEDT) – The Norwegian central bank will almost certainly leave interest rates will stay unchanged at 4.5%. The market prices the first cut from the Norges Bank in June, with 107bp of cuts priced this year.
• Bank of Canada meeting (25 Jan 01:45 AEDT) – the market prices no chance of action at this meeting. The first cut from the BoC is priced in April with 101bp of cuts priced this year, so USDCAD (and the CAD crosses) tone of the statement.
• Japan Tokyo CPI (26 Jan 10:30 AEDT) – the market looks for headlines CPI to come in at 2% (from 2.4%), and super core at 3.4% (3.5%). The JP CPI print would need to miss/beat by some margin to cause a move in the JPY given the print is seen so soon after the BoJ meeting.
• ECB meeting (26 Jan 00:15 AEDT) – the market ascribes no chance of a cut at this meeting, but the ECB will provide new growth and inflation forecasts. Recent communication from multiple ECB members suggests a growing consensus for a cut in June, although EU swaps pencil in the first cut in April (priced at 82%), with 136bp of cuts priced by December.
• US core PCE inflation (27 Jan 00:30 AEDT) – the median estimate is for headline PCE to come in at 0.2% QoQ / 2.6% (unchanged) and core at 0.2% QoQ / 3% YoY (from 3.2%). US swaps put the probability of a cut in the March FOMC at 50%, so the PCE inflation data could influence that pricing and by extension the USD.
New Hampshire (NH) REP Primary (23 Jan) – Donald Trump is leading Nikki Haley in the polls by 15ppt in NH, with Trump picking up votes with Vivek Ramaswamy recently exiting the race, while Nikki Haley is benefiting from Chris Christie’s recent departure. Haley must win here or come very close, or her chances of becoming the REP nominee drop sharply. There is talk that Haley may drop out after NH if she doesn’t come close to gaining the most votes in NH, although she may still run in the South Carolina Primary (24 Feb) given it’s her home state – either way, the race for the REP nominee could essentially be over depending on the outcome of the NH primary. Polls close at 8pm EST, so we should know the outcome shortly after that.
US earnings – GE, Procter & Gamble, IBM (24 Jan after-market), Netflix (24 Jan 08:00 AEDT), Tesla (24 Jan after-market), Visa, Amex, Intel
