Tesla
TESLA: Should HSBC's $146 target price scare the market?On first impression it is obvious that this reduced rating of Tesla shares by HSBC, did scare the market as the price is falling more than -6% intra day. The 1D technical outlook is now bearish (RSI = 37.472, MACD = -7.750, ADX = 34.942) with the price dropping below the 1D MA200, despite having it hold the last 4 sessions. Perhaps the most dangerous development is the rejection of the RSI on the LH trendline of June.
That is also evident on the 4H timeframe, the same LH trendline is present and just rejected the RSI. On the bright side though, the 4H timeframe shows that the current pattern is an Inverse Head and Shoulders similar to the bottom patterns of August, April and January. All those patterns former the RS (Right Shoulder) under the 4H MA50 but over, even slightly, the 0.5 Fibonacci level. Now the price is slightly under it. If it closes there, consider it a bearish sign for the short term.
On the long term, the key is where the 1W candle will close. With the 1W MA50 and MA200 on top of each other, the last two weekly candles closed over them, which hints towards a bottom formation. If the week closes again above them, consider it a bullish sign. If below, then HSBC's target may soon become a reality as selling order will pile up.
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TSLA !! MASSIVE HEAD AND SHOULDERS TSLA might be forming a massive head and shoulders pattern on the 4hr chart. If price can maintain current levels we could see a quick push to all time highs. Just need to break the neckline for an explosive move!
Elon announced exciting news about their Lithium factory as a "cash printing machine for 2024" . News like this could help spark a rally in the ticker
As we don't know if/when this will take off, I am thinking about getting some 1.5 leveraged TSLL, and also grabbing some TSLY at these low levels.
Tesla - Remember, The Ponzi Always ContinuesSo, you've realized that Teslas aren't particularly great cars, EVs becoming a worldwide trend is a hoax, and that Elon Musk isn't any kind of very saintly very MAGA saviour of humanity during the end times.
And now that price is down a lot, we want to victory lap and short, because the public relations firms that are running the campaign needed to produce liquidity for banks and big money funds to buy told you to.
The problem with the short Tesla thesis right now is that Musk pledged a significant volume of his shares as collateral to get big money to finance his acquisition of Tweeter, (now known as Xeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeter), which by some accounts is worth some painful $15 billion compared to the $45 billion he (they) paid for it.
And so what this means is that there's been significant incentive to sell in the $250 range and buy back lower as a form of risk hedging, with the ultimate purpose of selling higher.
All for the sake of just making all the money without losing any of the money when Xeeeeeeter inevitably goes public in the future because Musk made it the manifest Western form of the Chinese Communist Party's social credit apparatus, WeChat, because Shanghai Gigafactory bro just loves the way the Party does things.
But the risk for bulls, and the economic system alike, is that "the best laid plans of mice and men oft go awry," which is to say that when it comes to gambling on Xi Jinping and his Chinese Communist Party, a fool is a fool.
One should oppose the CCP because it's responsible for the 24-year persecution against Falun Dafa's 100 million practitioners, and the campaign of live organ harvesting genocide that came with it.
Although that campaign was launched, and continued, at the hands of former Chairman Jiang Zemin, and Jiang is dead now, Xi is still the head of the Party, and the first thing you do when slaying a red dragon is sever its head.
Actually, the first thing you do when slaying a red dragon is sever its tail. Former Premier Li Keqiang, who was Xi's right hand man for a lot of years, recently died "of a heart attack," which is likely code for "was knocked down by Wuhan Pneumonia."
If the pandemic in Mainland China is killing the Xi Faction, the world has big time problems.
And it seems to me the recent conflict in Israel and the war that's being launched into Syria and Iran is probably to create a gateway to Mainland China, since Iran connects to Pakistan and Afghanistan, which are already U.S. controlled.
Everyone wants control of China and its 5,000 year history when the CCP finally falls.
So back to Tesla.
The logic is fairly simple.
Because 2023 started uppy, we expect 2023 to finish uppy. We do not expect things that start the beginning of the year on a moon mission to correct into the end of the year, because generally speaking the scam isn't played like that.
Which means that all dips are a dip to buy, and especially when we're finally printing prices under "$200," it's a dip to buy.
But the MMs are the most annoying of the most annoying people and like to run things to lows that are less comfortable. Shipping under $180 from $197 is a further loss of another 10%+, which means options expire worthless/devalue effectively, and everyone is a winner, winner, chicken dinner, except for you, who gets to finance happy hour, strippers, and cocaine at 1:31 p.m. on Halloween Tuesday.
Either way, it's worth expecting the May pivot to hold as a low, a higher low to form, and then we really do see the $320 parade into the end of 2023.
Ho, ho, ho, Happy Santa Rally.
Remember, the Ponzi always continues. By the time the ponzi stops continuing, all the bears will have long since been liquidated. The disaster sequence is when they take down bulltards who buy the dip, buy the dip, and buy the dip as it races towards zero.
And Tesla doesn't have that MULN-style landslide apocalypse pattern. That only happens when big bags are empty and nobody ever buys something again.
So all the price action is just shareholder printer selling.
Yet.
TESLA Can it reach $345 in January based on this Channel Up?Tesla (TSLA) has been trading within a Channel Up pattern ever since the January 03 2023 market bottom. Since last week, it is staging a rebound sequence as it hit and held (closed 1W candle above it) the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) which happens to be on top of the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). Technically that is the bullish leg towards a new Higher High.
However, the last Higher High of the Channel Up was rejected on the Lower Highs trend-line that remains in effect since the November 01 2021 All Time High (ATH), which is essentially the major Resistance of the 2022 Bear Cycle. If it breaks above it, we can expect a Higher High bullish sequence towards $345 at least, since it would represent a +75% rise from last week's bottom (Higher Low), assuming the Higher Highs are on a -$20 decline rate.
Notice also the fair flipped symmetry of the 1W RSI after the January 2023 bottom and the price action before it. If it holds the Support as it held it during the Bear Cycle, we can even see $400 early in Q3 2024.
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TESLA Inverse Head and Shoulders starting a rally?Tesla (TSLA) has been trading within a Falling Wedge pattern of Lower Highs (Resistance) and Lower Lows (Support). The 4H MACD formed a Bullish Cross 2 days ago and last time we saw such a bullish formation this low, was on August 21. That was straight after the first Low of the Falling Wedge, which initiated the bullish sequence that formed the Lower High of September 15 marginally below the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level.
The August Falling Wedge Low was, on a shorter term framework, the Head of an Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S) pattern. Technically this is a bullish reversal pattern seen on market bottoms and as we saw it didn't fail to deliver a rebound. Typically their targets are the 2.0 Fibonacci extension only that time the rise exceeded it.
We see the same kind of IH&S emerging on the current bottom of the Wedge and now is forming its Right Shoulder. This time, the 2.0 Fib ext of the IH&S is marginally below the 0.786 Fib retracement level from the Wedge's last Lower High. As a result, we will target $250, which meets all the criteria for a new Lower High of the Falling Wedge.
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Tesla either forming a triangle or a reversed H&S pattern
Tesla drop stopped right onto what would be its right shoulder of a bullish reverse head & shoulders pattern.
As long as this support holds, the potential is bullish towards the all-time high near $414.50 then $500.
Otherwise, a break below the recent low near $194 would invalidate it and would probably mean that Tesla is in a longer process triangle formation.
Next support would be in the $136 area.
TESLA Should the battery production drop scare you?Tesla dropped more than -5% intraday as Panasonic, a crucial supplier, revealed a reduction in automotive battery production during the September quarter. The announcement comes amidst growing concerns over a worldwide deceleration in EV sales.
The fundamentals are obviously the opposite of ideal but the stock finds itself in a peculiar technical position that contradicts this fear across the market. The technical outlook on the 1D timeframe is oversold (RSI = 25.208, MACD = -13.090, ADX = 45.344) while the price came only $4 away from the bottom of the Channel Down pattern. The oversold 1D RSI makes these low levels an even stronger buy opportunity as the other two times it reaches such low levels this year, it rebounded immediately.
Consequently, we believe that the negative fundamentals are already priced in on October's fall and the Channel bottom buy opportunity is too good to ignore. Buy and target the 0.786 Fibonacci level (TP = 250.00).
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SP500 - Support and Resistance ZonesI have mentioned these two circled levels earlier and we have now reached the second target (Purple Circle). This is a perfect bounce area for SP500 and may be the bottom of this bear trend we have been in the last months.
We might go down and test the support below but I dont think so. In my chart I posted earlier I mentioned that I thought we would consolidate around the yellow mark before testing ATH. That idea was false and we broke down to this purple area instead. The market is at extreme fear levels and the media very negative.
I believe we will end the year quite positive and start the new uptrend towards ATH around these levels.
Take care.
Short more Tesla - TSLATesla monthly is disgusting. Adding to shorts from $273. All the "share holders" on twitter talking about earnings, and margins and whatever. They are getting fleeced by traders. Everything in the chart. Diagonal line resistance held, abysmal monthly candles, target at least $217. Monthly RSI cross and topped. Definitely a 1hr/4 hr pop going to happen probably tomorrow, but I will add shorts on the spike. Good luck, be safe. Not advise.
TESLA Forming the new macro bottom. Get ready to rally near ATH.Tesla / TSLA is trading inside the very same Channel Down pattern that led to the April 27th low.
Currently the stock is in the process of a similar bottom formation (dotted Channel Down), which besides April 27th was seen on January 6th.
Common feature on all those bottoms was that the 1day RSI was oversold under the 30.00 level.
Consequently we regard this level as the last best buy opportunity for this year on the long term.
The other two rose by +113.71% and +97.62% respectively.
Buy and aim for a new rally on the minimum repeat of +97.62%, at 385.00.
That is both a little under the Rising Resistance and the 415.00 All Time High.
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SPX ES - Welcome To The Fourth Quarter RodeoWhether you want to look at these markets like an American football game or the National Finals Rodeo/Calgary Stampede bull riding, this final quarter of the year is set up to be quite the fireworks show.
The new JP Morgan fund options collar is illustrated on the chart, but let's put it into text:
JPM is the seller of 41,000 calls with a strike of 4,515
JPM is the buyer of 41,000 puts with a strike of 4,055
JPM is the seller of 41,000 puts with a strike of 3,420
Expiry is December 29, 2023.
So if you believe that JP Morgan, the pinnacle systemically important bank in the United States, is the market maker, the crude logic is that the bank is incentivized to:
1. Keep price away from 4,515
2. Drive price towards/under 4,055
3. Keep price away from 3,420
Now, this is cool, but last quarter was an identical setup at similar strikes, and JP Morgan paid the calls it sold at 4,600~ and its own puts at 4,200 expired worthless.
A collar from a big fund is just a position and you should always remember the banks have the money to hedge, and hedge, and overhedge.
And their overhedges, when combining with the psychological effect on both retail and fund-level market participants, can produce greater profits than the simple cashing in of their ostensible public positions.
The problem for SPX and equities bulls right now is that if a new all time high was to be set, we should have bounced to start October. The meaning of this is that filling in the range of the giant June uppy candle is actually bearish.
Because it's fundamentally bearish, we have no reason to believe that downside pivots are not the target. Ergo, we have no reason to justify long trades as more than a single-or-intraday scalp until a significant low is taken.
And that low should involve the May 4,062.25 target.
A raid below that, a consolidation above 4,000, a manipulation raid slightly under 4,000 to eat stops, and then a rip back to take out "resistance" at the 4,634 double top before the end of the year AND possible run the all time high, is absolutely the trade thesis.
A raid on 4,062 happens to put JPM's long puts directly in the money and they'll be free to exit with profit.
Then, the bank can pay or mitigate the buyers of its 4,515 calls before expiry, all while making bears hate their life.
If this all plays out as anticipated, 2024 will be significantly dark clouds. Always keep in mind that 2023 opened in a straight line uppy, and year candles VERY rarely repeat their patterns twice.
What is "the bear thesis" really predicated on? It's not the Federal Reserve or such and such recession.
It's the situation in Mainland China. There's a total worldwide media blackout on what's going on inside China.
But how much longer can the Chinese Communist Party and the boundless and eternal sins of organ harvesting Falun Dafa's 100 million students at the hands of Jiang Zemin since July 20, 1999 continue forward?
The Wuhan Pneumonia pandemic has claimed millions and millions of lives inside the Mainland, and that's before the catastrophes from the Party's corrupt officials itself, and all the flooding and economic damage.
In short, the CCP will soon fall before our very eyes, and everything will change.
2024 Presidential Election theatre in the United States won't really matter.
If you want to have a bright future and happiness, you need to turn off the television, turn off the radio, turn off YouTube, get off TikTok, and go outside and be in your community in real life.
You need to cut the brainwashing and start valuing virtue again, start living like humans again, start thinking like a human again.
Heaven is watching to see who can stand against the Red Demon of the Chinese Communist Party's international "United Front" parasite campaigns.
Whoever can't is considered the worst kind of loser.
But for now, fade the so-called "bottom" at 4,250 and strongly consider buying 3,985.
Just make sure you dump it, dump it again, and cash out at 4,700 or 4,800.
The happy days humans dream of not only never existed, but are forever gone. Everything is about to become stringently serious.
TESLA: GARTLEY detectedTESLA: GARTLEY detected
Today I detected a GARTLEY. TESLA's disappointing margins have weighed down the stock, but a bullish GARTLEY could cause the stock to rebound around $180.
Technically the GAPs and the EMA.50 and EMA.200 around $232 and $245 are possible upside targets.
On the downside: $180 and £175 constitute a potential reversal zone (PRZ)
Stay safe. Good trades.
TSLA | Tesla | General atmosphere in the markets?Looking to short Tesla if price should push against the red area (Sell area 1).
Reason beeing its a former, engulfed supply zone that stopped the previous uptrend before beeing taken out. It also served as Support for a short period of time.
In general if this trade should work out i see other major stocks going down.
S-L (Stop- Loss): I dont want to see a close of a weekly candle above the green line.
Target: A former resistance area that is in confluence with the 50% of the range of the recent uptrend.
Additional: The last uptrend swing of Tesla (See blue Fib levels) followed a correction to the 23% Fib before starting with the current uptrend. The 23% Fib of the current uptrend is marked with a green rectangle.
Good luck
Disclaimer:
- This information does not constitute as financial advice and is only for educational purposes. I am not your financial advisor.
- You trade entirely at your own risk
- Make your own research
- Finance and trading is evil, capitalism is bad, duh ;)