News Analytics Align with Technicals' Slight Bearish Momentum ☄️Dear Investors,
Chart Explanation
I believe if Tesla doesn't break out from the bearish triangle, it could downtrend to $225. This is the target price of multiple scenarios. The stock is volatile enough to fall to this price without additional confirmation. However, if the price meets the resistance trendline I marked with red, it can still spiral into the mentioned target zone. The chart shows how this resistance indeed rejected rallies many times over the previous months. I drew red arrows where I believe the resistance rejected the price. If the price breaks up this resistance, bullish scenarios will become more probable and Tesla will prepare for the moon. At the moment, however, the number of bearish scenarios suggests a better risk-reward ratio for shorts with losing the EMAs today. I've got a short myself from $251, and I'd consider increasing this position size if I see another rejection near the resistance. On the other hand, a breakup of the resistance would mean taking profits from these positions and preparing for a long setup. The $225 target aligns with multiple historical gaps that the stock is yet to fulfill. From that level, it can either break down or reverse up. There are possible targets on both sides. So, I think, it's important to monitor news and technicals alike. In this idea, I'd like to give you some news trading insights and how I see the technical indicators.
News Trading - Natural Language Processing
☄️ Tesla's production and delivery growth has slowed in recent quarters. The company's production growth slowed to 54% in the fourth quarter of 2022, from 119% in the third quarter. Deliveries also slowed to 936,000 in the fourth quarter, from 1.39 million in the third quarter. This slowdown could be a sign that Tesla is facing production bottlenecks or supply chain disruptions.
☄️ Tesla's gross margin has declined. The company's gross margin was 27.9% in the fourth quarter of 2022, down from 30.6% in the third quarter. This decline could be a sign that Tesla is facing higher costs or that it is discounting its cars more heavily to boost sales.
☄️ Tesla's stock price has been volatile in recent months. The stock price has fallen by more than 40% from its all-time high in November 2021. This volatility could be a sign that investors are uncertain about Tesla's future.
☄️ There are concerns about Tesla's ability to scale production efficiently. The company has ambitious plans to produce 20 million vehicles per year by 2030, but analysts have questioned whether Tesla can achieve this goal without facing significant production bottlenecks.
☄️ Tesla's competitive landscape is becoming more crowded. The electric vehicle market is becoming increasingly crowded, with new entrants from established automakers and startups alike. This could put pressure on Tesla's market share and pricing power.
Technical Indicators
MACD has been bearish since 29 November as the bottom indicator shows. The bearish momentum isn't too strong, but it's been consistent over the last week. On the RSI, above the MACD indicator, I can see a bullish RSI cross attempt, but this cross failed and became a bearish indication. The volume bars have been somewhat stable over this time, which might not enforce a strong bearish momentum, but it shows a lack of volume necessary for reversal.
Disclaimer
It's not an investment advice. Do your research. Your funds are your responsibility. This speculation serves only entertainment purposes.
Kind regards,
Ely
Tesla
Will Tesla test 300 again soon?There has been a very good year for Tesla with the stock starting the year at 100 and reaching a high of 300 in summer.
A correction followed, but even if the ascending trend line was broken with a gap in October, Tesla found a very strong floor in the 200 region and rebounded, giving us a very nice bullish chart for the year.
Technically, the drop from 300 is clearly corrective in nature, and with the stock consolidating between 230 and 250 for 3 weeks now, we can expect a break to the upside.
This consolidation break will also coincide with a break of the falling trend line and, in such an instance, we can expect acceleration to the upside.
The most obvious target for bulls is the 300 figure and technical resistance and, considering a stop loss under consolidation's support we can achieve a more than 1:2 risk: reward.
TESLA Major bullish break-out above July's Lower Highs.Tesla (TSLA) broke today for the first time and even closed the 1D candle above the Lower Highs that started on the July 19 High. After 4 months of the bearish trend of this Falling Wedge pattern, today's move is a major bullish break-out for the long term as it opens the way for testing the All Time High (ATH) by mid 2024.
At the same time, the 1D CCI broke above its Lower Highs trend-line, which is always a bullish signal. Also this is the 2nd time that the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level is tested, which is where both of the previous Lower Highs rejections took place.
On the short-term though we can follow the (dotted) Channel Up extension which after holding the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) - 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) as the Support zone, can technically peak on a +19.80% rise, like the first bullish leg. That falls within the Resistance 1 - Resistance 2 zone. We will pursue the more modest target of 268.85 (Resistance 1). If the price then breaks above Resistance 2 (279.00), we will re-buy and target 299.50 (Resistance 3).
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TESLAPair : TESLA Index
Description :
Bearish Channel as an Corrective Pattern in Long Time Frame and Bullish Channel as an Correction in Short Time Frame with the Breakout of the Lower Trend Line and Retracement. It has Completed " 12345 " Impulsive Waves and " A - wxy " Corrective Waves
Entry Precaution :
Wait for the Proper Rejection
Tesla Unveils Its 2nd-Generation Optimus Robot 🤖
In the released video, the robot demonstrates capabilities such as controlled squatting, delicate egg transfer, and dancing. However, in the context of today's technological advancements, Optimus Gen 2 doesn't appear to boast any standout features.
The latest iteration of the robot is 10 kg lighter, 30% faster, a lot smoother, and equipped with tactile sensing on all fingers.
NASDAQ:TSLA may experience a surge as investors anticipate the potential impact of the new product on Tesla's revenue and market position.
Tesla is often seen as a company at the forefront of technological innovation. Successful product launches reinforce investor confidence in the company's ability to lead in multiple industries. A positive reception of the Optimus robot could contribute to increased investor confidence.
TESLA: Optimism, Challenges, and the Road AheadTESLA: Optimism, Challenges, and the Road Ahead
Tesla, the electric vehicle giant, has garnered attention for its extraordinary 10-year return of 2,560%, making it a standout investment. Despite a notable 98% surge this year, surpassing the broader market, Tesla's shares currently trade at a substantial 41% below their peak of $410 in November 2021. With optimistic investors eyeing a $500 target, envisioning over a 100% gain from the current price, achieving this milestone by 2024 is a possibility, but certain challenges must be navigated.
Factors Influencing Tesla's Trajectory:
Tesla's historic success forms the backdrop for investor optimism, but realizing the $500 target necessitates specific factors. Key among them is a renewed focus on fundamental improvements, crucial for the long-term performance of the stock. Tesla's robust growth has historically been the driving force, positioning the company as a global leader in the electric vehicle movement.
However, a noticeable slowdown in 2023 raises concerns. In the recent quarter (Q3 2023), Tesla's revenue increased by a modest 9%, a departure from the double-digit growth the company has been known for. Elon Musk attributes this to challenges in the macroeconomic environment, including diminished affordability and consumer uncertainty, especially concerning significant purchases.
Challenges in Revenue Growth and Profitability:
To sustain upward momentum, Tesla must address challenges in revenue growth and profitability. Fierce competition and continuous price reductions to preserve market share have impacted profitability significantly. In Q3, Tesla reported an operating margin of 7.6%, a substantial decline from the 17.2% recorded a year ago. Substantial improvements in margins will be pivotal for sustained stock performance in 2024.
Valuation Considerations:
Beyond revenue and earnings growth, Tesla's valuation is a critical consideration. Currently, the stock carries a substantial price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 78, largely fueled by a 105% increase in the P/E multiple this year. While some argue this valuation is justified, growing investor enthusiasm poses challenges for prospective shareholders seeking significant returns.
Tempering Expectations:
Assuming Tesla's valuation will continue to rise may be overly optimistic, especially in an unpredictable market environment with higher interest rates and inflation. To reach $500 by the end of next year, Tesla would need outstanding financial results, including a doubling of earnings per share between 2023 and 2024. However, recent trends suggest this bullish scenario may face challenges, urging investors to temper their expectations and carefully assess the evolving landscape for Tesla.
Tesla's journey to $500 by 2024 is marked by both optimism and challenges. While the company's historic success forms a solid foundation, addressing concerns in revenue growth, profitability, and managing valuation expectations will be crucial. Investors are advised to approach this potential milestone with a balanced perspective, considering the evolving market dynamics and the need for sustained fundamental performance in the coming year.
Tesla Daily Considering that this symbol has been in correction for a long time and the result of this correction is the rise of this stock Therefore, it can be considered that the purchase of this share is valuable and it is kept for the specified purposes Also, Chico's crossing of the price is the main factor for entering into the purchase
TSLA back to 400TSLA is in the last leg of its wave pattern. It's previous wave low was at 196, and since has followed the wave pattern back above its moving averages.
It also has formed a nice rounding pattern, suggesting we would get back to old highs of 375-400 by March 2024. This would be a 3.25:1 risk reward ratio. WIth the stop loss being at the previous wave low of 196.
🚗 Unfolding Tesla's Plan 📉📈Everything is going according to plan at Tesla. After our two entries, with the first one at $206 still open, we are still hovering around the $242 mark. As anticipated, we find ourselves in a rather complex correction that is not yet completed on the downside.
I expect a pullback for Wave C, which could range between the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels. The extent of the downward move remains to be seen, but I would suggest it may not be too deep. If we manage to form Wave C, we are on the verge of the significant and lengthy Wave 3, potentially reaching up to $300. Stay tuned for the ride! 🚀✨
TSLA - trade ideaBeen a while since I posted an idea here, it doesnt matter what Ideas I post, it is more important to learn trade psychology and understand your risk reward, you can enter 1,000 trades with bad risk reward and never win. Or you can step into the arena, get beaten up enough times to finally snap out of it and find your way. Why risk it to make the biscuit?!
TESLA Support resistance trades, no trader has the golden ticket, find your way!
Funded 1.7m with APEX and TakeProfit trader, after blood sweat and tears, it may not be much to many but to me its lifechanging. Lets get it!!!!
TESLA: 'Final boss' Resistance test.TSLA was rejected on the November 29th test on the LH trendline of July's High but upon the pullback it held the 4H MA50 and reversed. Contrary to the previous LH rejections (Oct 11th, Sep 15th), the stock is being given the chance to make another test on a very short time. Being still bullish on the 1D technical outlook (RSI = 57.232, MACD = 1.890, ADX = 23.357) suggests that if the 4H MA50 remains intact, Tesla can finally cross over this five month Resistance trendline and start a new rally.
The longer the price stays this high, the more quicker a 4H Golden Cross will be formed, which is will be a bullish signal validation. Last 4H Golden Cross was registered on June 5th, almost halfway through the three month rally. In any case, it the LH of July successfully breaks, we expect the established Channel Up pattern from the October 31st bottom to make another +20% rally to the R1 level (TP = 278.00).
See how our prior idea has worked:
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TESLA I Rise Coming SoonWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
** TESLA Analysis - Listen to video!
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TSLA: Technical OutlookIn a 1h chart Tesla is currently in a consolidation. I'd expect a breakout in today's session. Since July Tesla has been trading in a big bullish flag (trend lines filled in blue), breaking above this formation should be seen as bullish indicator for long term trend. Areas plotted to look out for, combined with daily and weekly MAs to be used as S/R confluences.
Tesla: Elon Musk Has A ProblemFounded in 2003 by visionary entrepreneur Elon Musk, Tesla has become a pioneer in the automotive industry. The company is one of the world's largest manufacturers of electric cars.
Beyond cars, Tesla has expanded its reach into renewable energy solutions, including solar panels and energy storage products. Musk's bold vision, commitment to technological advancement, and the company's relentless pursuit of sustainability have positioned Tesla as a transformative force in the intersection of transportation and clean energy.
Technical analysis
After the completion of the impulse phase, marked on the chart as ①-②-③-④-⑤, the price of Tesla shares continues to move within the downward trend.
We expect the share price to stabilize once it reaches $220, after which it will begin to move north to $250.
Fundamental Analysis
Tesla's revenue for the three months ended September 30, 2023 was $23.35 billion, up 8.9% compared to the third quarter of 2022.
Author's elaboration, based on Seeking Alpha
In addition to the company's margins continuing to decline, the Model S and Model X deliveries have continued to disappoint in recent quarters.
Author's elaboration, based on quarterly securities reports
Also, production and delivery volumes of Model 3 and Model Y, which are the cheapest in Tesla's line of cars, decreased compared to the previous quarter, which casts doubt on Musk's ability to attract new customers.
Author's elaboration, based on quarterly securities reports
The company's earnings per share (EPS) for the three months ended September 30, 2023 were $0.66, missing analysts' expectations of $0.07. But more importantly, this figure decreased by 37.1% compared to the previous year due to increased competition in the global electric vehicle market and lower prices for Tesla products.
Author's elaboration, based on Seeking Alpha
On the other hand, the company's fourth-quarter EPS is expected to be in the range of $0.55-$0.92, down 38.17% from the fourth quarter of 2023. Tesla's Non-GAAP (TTM) P/E is 65.26x, which is 361.86% higher than the sector average and 57.91% lower than the average over the past five years. The company's Non-GAAP P/E is 73.66x, indicating that it is overvalued in the current period as Chinese automakers continue to expand their presence in Europe and the United States actively.
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Analyst’s Disclosure:
This article may not take into account all the risks and catalysts for the stocks described in it. Any part of this analytical article is provided for informational purposes only, does not constitute an individual investment recommendation, investment idea, advice, offer to buy or sell securities, or other financial instruments. The completeness and accuracy of the information in the analytical article are not guaranteed. If any fundamental criteria or events change in the future, I do not assume any obligation to update this article.
TESLA Buy signal on the (1h) time frame.TSLA is trading inside a Channel Up pattern under the MA50 (1h).
The Higher Low was priced after a -8.20% decline from the top, symmetrical to the first one.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy as long as the candles close inside the Channel Up.
Targets:
1. 257.50 (Fibonacci 1.236 extension, like the Nov 29th Higher High).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1h) is on a technical buy formation under the MA trend line.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
Tesla Unveils Cybertruck pricing with base model topping $60,000Tesla (TSLA) - shares slipped lower Thursday after the carmaker unveiled pricing for its Cybertruck, which will cost around $100,000 for the high-end version of the long-delayed vehicle.
Tesla said the price of its cheapest Cybertruck will be $49,890 each, around $10,000 more than CEO Elon Musk had initially indicated when he introduce the truck to investors in 2018. The rear-wheel drive version will become available in 2025 and have an estimated driving range of around 250 miles, according to the Tesla website.
Taking out the $7,500 tax credit linked to the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) as well as an estimated gas savings of $3,600, the base model Cybertruck will cost $60,990 each.
The all-wheel drive variant, meanwhile, will be priced at $68,890 and available in 2024 while the higher-end Cyberbeast will cost around $99,990 and have a range of 320 miles, according to details posted on the carmaker's website. Removing IRA and gas savings pegs the two models at $79,990 each and $99,990 each, respectively.
Tesla shares closed 1.78% lower on the session at $239.79 each, pegging their six-month gain at around 15.55%.
Tesla has been aggressively cutting the price of its flagship Model 3 sedan and Model Y midsize SUV in key markets worldwide including the U.S. and China as part of that aim, in its effort to entice new buyers and fend off increasing competition in the EV space.
Tesla's third quarter deliveries, while the highest on record, missed Wall Street forecasts when they were published in early October, suggesting at least some demand headwinds linked to China's post-Covid sluggishness and looming recession risks in Europe.
The slowing sales will test Tesla's 2023 strategy, outlined earlier this year by Musk, of focusing on market-share growth at the expense of profit.
Tesla will need to deliver around 477,000 new vehicles over the final three months of the year to meet its stated goal of 1.8 million, but CFRA analyst Garrett Nelson suggests the Cybertruck's installed production capacity should "reassure investors concerned about the ramp-up of the highly-anticipated new model."
Price Momentum
TSLA is trading near the top of its 52-week range and above its 200-day simple moving average.
What does this mean?
Investors have been pushing the share price higher, and the stock still appears to have upward momentum. This is a positive sign for the stock's future value.
Potential Impact of Cybertruck Production Nightmare on TeslaI would like to discuss the recent production nightmare surrounding the highly anticipated Cybertruck and how it could potentially impact Tesla's overall performance.
As we are all aware, Tesla has been at the forefront of electric vehicle innovation, revolutionizing the industry and capturing the imagination of investors and consumers alike. However, recent reports suggest that the production challenges faced by the Cybertruck have the potential to cast a shadow over Tesla's otherwise impressive track record.
The Cybertruck, with its bold design and promising features, has generated significant pre-order interest, reflecting the strong demand for Tesla's products. However, it is essential to consider the potential consequences of the production hurdles that Tesla has encountered. Delays in manufacturing, supply chain disruptions, and quality control issues could lead to dissatisfied customers, tarnishing Tesla's reputation for delivering cutting-edge products on time.
While Tesla has demonstrated resilience in overcoming obstacles in the past, it is crucial to approach this situation with caution. As traders, it is our responsibility to evaluate the potential risks associated with such setbacks and make informed decisions regarding our investment strategies.
Considering the gravity of the situation, I encourage you to closely monitor Tesla's progress in addressing the production challenges faced by the Cybertruck. Keep a keen eye on any developments or announcements that could shed light on the company's ability to overcome these obstacles effectively.
In light of these circumstances, some traders may consider exploring shorting opportunities for Tesla. However, it is important to remember that shorting a stock carries inherent risks and requires careful analysis of market trends, financial indicators, and broader industry dynamics. I urge you to consult with your trusted financial advisors or conduct thorough research before making any investment decisions.
Ultimately, the purpose of this email is to highlight the potential risks associated with the Cybertruck production nightmare and emphasize the importance of cautious evaluation. As traders, we must remain vigilant, informed, and adaptable in navigating the ever-changing landscape of the stock market.
TESLA Moment of truth for long-term buying. Will it fail?It was almost a month ago (November 03) when we called for the start of a rally on Tesla (TSLA) as part of the bullish leg towards the top of the Falling Wedge pattern (see chart below):
Today the stock hit our $250 target and immediately got rejected at the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Wedge. That was on the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level of the previous Lower High, the exact symmetrical level where the September 15 High was rejected.
This is a critical moment for the trend as failure to break and close a 1D candle above the Lower Highs trend-line, will maintain the bearish structure of the Falling Wedge, forcing us to sell again and target the 0.618 Fib level at $217.15. If however we close that 1D candle above, the Falling Wedge gets invalidated and with that the bearish trend, which transitions into a Channel Up (dotted lines) on the medium-term. In that case we will dump the short (low risk with the SL on the Lower Highs) and resume buying, targeting Resistance 1 at $268.85.
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