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Tesla

FADE THE POP on news. Tesla to the ground!NASDAQ:TSLA pops after hour on news, running up to as high as $246: "General Motors will follow crosstown rival Ford Motor in partnering with Tesla to use the electric vehicle leader’s North American charging network and technologies." We often see stocks pop on news, which gives us a chance to fade the selloff. Beware, just as you should not try to catch a falling knife, you should not try to hold down a rocket ship. That's why I give a short time to declare itself. NASDAQ:TSLA is pushing into the daily supply between $227-$237 from back in 11/2022. If buyers cannot hold, we have a long way down for the rest of the year with good risk to reward. Buy time. An early entry is below $233.44 which is proven support/resistance and a sure confirmation of seller strength is a daily hold below $228.36
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by thetradedoc
4
Tesla -> The Sky Is The LimitHello Traders, welcome to this free and educational multi-timeframe technical analysis. On the weekly timeframe you can see that Tesla stock recently perfectly broke above a longer term bearish trendline in confluence with support at the $160 level and then created a rally of 40% towards the upside. You can also see that from a weekly perspective Tesla stock is currently testing a major weekly structure zone which could now act as resistance exactly at the $270 level so I am now just waiting for a minor pullback before I will then look for the continuation towards the upside. On the daily timeframe however you can see that Tesla is far from creating bearish market structure, there is no sign of weakness at the moment so I am just waiting for Tesla to slow down at the current leve and then I do expect a minor pullback towards the downside before the longer term bullish continuation. Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow! You can also check out my previous analysis of this asset:
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by basictradingtv
57
TSLA Ready To Reverse?! Here we are looking TSLA on the Daily TF… In today’s analysis we are going to be comparing TESLA’s two most recent legs up in its current move, to look at the similarities and figure out where this current leg up may run out of steam. In TSLAs first move up, it moved up $115 which was approximately 112% up from its lows. From there, it received a pullback before beginning its current move up. When looking at the current move up, it has moved up exactly $115, just as the first move. Additionally, you can see that the price has gravitated right to a major gap fill on the chart. This isn’t enough to say that TSLA will reverse, but the similarities and the confluence is very strong. I will begin to look for TSLA to pull back from its current levels, and will update you as I see fit! Cheers!
NASDAQ:TSLA
by GarethSolowayOfficial
9
Peeking into Super SevensIn our previous paper , we outlined how investors can use CME's Micro S&P 500 Futures to hedge beta exposure and extract pure alpha. The paper referenced that the Super Sevens stocks (Amazon, Apple, Google, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla) will continue to outperform the broader S&P 500 index. Not only do these stocks benefit from passive investing and ESG investing, these firms also have solid fundamentals to back up their gargantuan valuations. Each of the firms in the Super Sevens offer unique value drivers. Each firm is a market leader in its space and has demonstrated resilient earnings capacity and solid growth potential. Still, each also has its own set of risks. Notably, with the Super Sevens the value drivers outweigh the potential risks. AMAZON VALUE DRIVERS • Blistering profits from AWS offering with dominant market share of 33%. • Market dominance in e-commerce and solid supply chain network. • Successful new categories: Kindle (publishing), Alexa (voice assistant), and Prime (video streaming). POTENTIAL RISKS • Heavy reliance on AWS for profits. Slowing growth in AWS due to slowdown in corporate IT spending. • Low profit margins in e-commerce business. Slowing growth due to lower consumer spending. • Rising competition in cloud services and e-commerce. ANALYST PRICE TARGETS • Across 54 analysts providing a 12-month price target, 42 (77%) having a strong buy rating, 7 (13%) of them have a buy rating, 4 (7%) suggest a hold, while just 1 (2%) has a strong sell rating. • Average 12-month price target stands at 137, with a maximum of 220 and a minimum of 85. TECHNICAL SIGNALS • Technical signals point to momentum deeply in favour of Amazon shares. Oscillators point to buy and Moving averages point to a strong buy. • In aggregate, technical signals point to a buy. APPLE VALUE DRIVERS • Product category definers. Dominant and still growing iPhone demand. • Solid eco-system which is extremely hard to displace. • Control over both software and hardware enables specialized tailored improvements. • Sticky services such as App store, Apple Pay, and potentially Apple BNPL. POTENTIAL RISKS • Apple is heavily reliant on external fabricators exposing it to supply-chain bottlenecks. • Heavily dependent on iPhone sales. • Rising dependence on future growth in unexplored new categories. ANALYST PRICE TARGETS • Across 42 analysts providing a 12-month price target, 22 (52%) having a strong buy rating, 6 (14%) of them have a buy rating, 13 (31%) suggest a hold, while just 1 (2%) has a strong sell rating. • Average 12-month price target stands at 187, with a maximum of 220 and a minimum of 140. TECHNICAL SIGNALS • Technical signals point to solid momentum favouring long position in Apple shares. Oscillators point to buy and Moving averages point to a strong buy. • In aggregate, technical signals point to a strong buy despite Apple trading at near its all-time-high. GOOGLE VALUE DRIVERS • Google is the dominant search engine (86% market share). • Phenomenally successful and effective ad-targeting capabilities. • Heavy investments in future innovation enabling leapfrog into new verticals such as Android, Waymo (FSD & Maps). • Successful early acquisitions such as YouTube, Android, Applied Semantics & DoubleClick (AdSense), Nest (Home Automation). POTENTIAL RISKS • Massive reliance on ad revenues via search for profits. Slowing ad spend as firms cut back on spending. • Non-trivial dependence on cloud revenue for growth exposes them. Slowing cloud revenue growth due to lower corporate IT spending. • Failure to expand into new domains such as social media, wearable tech, and gaming. ANALYST PRICE TARGETS • Across 52 analysts providing a 12-month price target, 40 (77%) having a strong buy rating, 7 (13%) of them have a buy rating, while 5 (10%) suggest a hold. None of the analysts have a sell rating. • Average 12-month price target stands at 131, with a maximum of 190 and a minimum of 100. TECHNICAL SIGNALS • Technical signals point to decent momentum favouring Google shares but prices are at tiny risk of oscillating downwards. Oscillators point to neutral while Moving averages point to a strong buy. • In aggregate, technical signals point to a buy. META VALUE DRIVERS • Market monopoly on social media with high penetration across global markets on multiple platforms. • Flagship Facebook platform continues to see growth with 2.9 billion monthly active users (MAU). • Successful acquisitions have provided them with a wide suite of social media platforms – WhatsApp (2 billion MAU) and Instagram (2 billion MAU). • Successful developer tools (Graph, Hydra, React) have allowed them to build useful SDK (Software Development Kit). Potential sources of enterprise revenue from these. POTENTIAL RISKS • Increasing competition from TikTok. • Privacy concerns have a direct revenue impact e.g., Apple’s new privacy policies. • Falling market share for flagship Facebook in advanced economies. • High reliance on ad-sales. Slowing ad sales as firms cut back on spending. • Shaky bet on the Metaverse which is starting to fade. ANALYST PRICE TARGETS • Across 60 analysts providing a 12-month price target, 39 (65%) having a strong buy rating, 7 (12%) of them have a buy rating, 10 (17%) suggest a hold, 1 (2%) sell rating, and 3 (5%) has a strong sell rating. • Average 12-month price target stands at 281, with a maximum of 350 and a minimum of 100. TECHNICAL SIGNALS • Technical signals point to decent momentum favouring Meta shares. Oscillators signal neutral indicating a tiny risk of shares shedding gains while Moving averages point to a strong buy. • In aggregate, technical signals point to a buy. MICROSOFT VALUE DRIVERS • Sheer dominance of Windows (74% market share) & MS Office. • Deep roots in MS Office enables the firm to straddle across consumers & enterprise. • Diversified software offerings - cloud (Azure), gaming (Xbox), enterprise (Windows Server and SQL), search (Bing), productivity (Office), collaboration (Teams), and AI (through Open AI's ChatGPT). • Active M&A activity to acquire assets - LinkedIn, OpenAI, GitHub, Skype, Mojang, Nokia, Activision-Blizzard (Pending). • Besides Windows, Microsoft controls dev frameworks such as .Net further strengthening their grasp on SW dev. POTENTIAL RISKS • Limited success in hardware offerings unlike Apple. • Multiple major acquisitions have fizzled – Skype and Nokia. • Limited adoption in enterprise software. ANALYST PRICE TARGETS • Across 51 analysts providing a 12-month price target, 37 (73%) having a strong buy rating, 6 (12%) of them have a buy rating, 7 (14%) suggest a hold, while just 1 (2%) has a strong sell rating. • Average 12-month price target stands at 345, with a maximum of 450 and a minimum of 232. TECHNICAL SIGNALS • Technical signals point to decent momentum favouring Microsoft shares. Oscillators are at neutral while Moving averages signal a strong buy. • In aggregate, technical signals point to a strong buy. NVIDIA VALUE DRIVERS • Market dominance in discrete GPU’s (80%). • Early mover in AI hardware which gives them a lead over the competition. • Raytracing, DLSS, Neural Network cores. • Nvidia’s CUDA is the primary choice for training ML models. • Market dominance in high-growth data centre graphics hardware (95%) and super-computing hardware. • Successful enterprise partnerships – car manufacturers using Nvidia software. • Emerging tech such as AI and VR require more graphics intensive processing driving demand for Nvidia’s products. POTENTIAL RISKS • Hardware-focused business model exposes it to supply-chain risks and bottlenecks. • Extremely high P/E of 225 dependent upon expectations of future growth in AI. • Losing market share in discrete GPUs and enterprise GPUs to AMD and Intel. ANALYST PRICE TARGETS • Across 50 analysts providing a 12-month price target, 36 (72%) having a strong buy rating, 6 (12%) of them have a buy rating, 7 (14%) suggest a hold, while just 1 (2%) has a sell rating. • Average 12-month price target stands at 444, with a maximum of 600 and a minimum of 175. TECHNICAL SIGNALS • Technical signals point to solid momentum favouring long position Nvidia shares. Oscillators point to buy and Moving averages point to a strong buy. • In aggregate, technical signals point to a strong buy despite Nvidia relentless and unrivalled price ascent. TESLA VALUE DRIVERS • Early mover in EV’s with dominant market share in US (62%). • Dedicated and loyal customer base. • Vertical integration of EV value chain allows it to reduce reliance on external suppliers. • Early investment in large factories that will allow them to scale output more efficiently. • Huge and monetizable supercharger network by opening it up to other EV makers. • Subscription model for software enables revenue generation after product sale. • Long term vision has allowed Tesla to create entirely new products such as supercharger network, battery banks, home power backup and solar roofs. • Tesla’s planned Robotaxi and entry into car insurance can be hugely disruptive. POTENTIAL RISKS • Increasing competition from automobile majors as well as Chinese EV firms. • Tesla’s brand is deeply entangled with Musk’s reputation. • Dependence on government incentives to make Tesla affordable. • Continued access to battery metal minerals. • Ongoing and unresolved production scaling challenges. ANALYST PRICE TARGETS • Across 46 analysts providing a 12-month price target, 18 (39%) having a strong buy rating, 5 (11%) of them have a buy rating, 17 (37%) suggest a hold, 1 (2%) has a sell rating, and a 5 (11%) hold a strong sell rating. • Average 12-month price target stands at 201, with a maximum of 335 and a minimum of 71. TECHNICAL SIGNALS • Technical signals point to solid momentum favouring Tesla. Oscillators point to buy and Moving averages point to a strong buy. • In aggregate, technical signals point to a strong buy. SUMMARY The Super Sevens are well positioned to continue outperforming the wider market. As mentioned in our previous paper , investors can use a beta hedge to nullify the effects of the broader market (S&P 500) and extract pure alpha from the growth of the Super Sevens. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
Editors' picks
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by mintdotfinance
35
Harvesting Alpha with Beta HedgingImagine this. Dark skies, earth tremors and thunder roars. Shelter is top priority. Size matters in a crisis. When the tsunami strikes and lightning splits the sky, investors shudder in fear; But the super seven stand tall, shielding investors from the fury. Dramatic metaphors aside, we truly live in unprecedented times. Risk lurks everywhere. List is endless. Unstable geopolitics. Sticky inflation. Recession expectations. Unprecedented deepening of yield curve inversion. Unfinished regional banking crisis. Weak manufacturing. Tightening financial conditions. Extremely divisive global politics, to just name a few. Despite severe headwinds, US equity markets are roaring. YTD, S&P is up +15% and Nasdaq is up +32%. At the start of 2023, the consensus was for US equities to be in doldrums dragged down by recession. Halfway through the year, markets are at the cusp of one of the best first half for US equity markets in twenty years. This is among the narrowest and top-heavy rally ever. Only a sliver of stocks - precisely seven of them - defines this optimism. This paper will refer to these as the Super Sevens. These are the biggest members of the S&P 500 index. Super Sevens are Amazon, Apple, Google, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla. This paper argues that the Super Sevens will deliver above market returns in the short term as investors seek safe haven from a vast array of macro risks. The paper articulates a case study to demonstrate the use of beta hedging to extract alpha from holding long positions in Super Sevens and hedging them against sharp reversals using CME Micro E-Mini S&P 500 index futures ("CME Micro S&P 500 Futures"). THE RISE AND RISE OF SUPER SEVENS Super Sevens have an outsized impact as S&P 500 is a market weighted index. Merely five of these seven form 25% of the S&P 500 market capitalisation. At $2.9 trillion in market capitalisation, Apple is greater than all of UK’s top 100 listed companies put together. If that were not enough, Apple's market capitalisation alone is greater than the aggregate market capitalisation of all the firms in the Russell 2000 index. Nvidia has been soaring on hopes of AI driven productivity gains. On blow out revenue guidance, it has rallied $640 billion in market cap YTD. That increment alone is larger than the combined market cap of JP Morgan & Bank of America the two largest banks in the US. The heatmap summarises analyst targets & technical signals on pathway for prices ahead: In part 2 of this paper, Mint will cover the detailed analyst price forecasts, technical signals and summary narratives covering value drives and intrinsic risk factors. WHAT DRIVES INVESTOR CONCENTRATION INTO THE SUPER SEVENS? As reported in the Financial Times last week, two broad market trends appear to have fed into this investor concentration. First, Passive investing. When funds merely deliver the performance of an index by replicating its composition, the higher the index weights, the more these passive funds buy into these names. Second, ESG investing. Rising push towards ESG has forced investment into tech and away from carbon-heavy sectors such as energy. Collectively, this has resulted in all types of investors – active, passive, momentum, ESG- all going after the same names. Question is, what happens now? Will the broader market catch up with the Super Sevens? Or will the Super Sevens suffer a sharp pullback? That depends on the broader US economy. Will it have a hard landing, soft landing, or no landing at all? Given market expectations of (a) resilient earnings capacity, and (b) solid growth potential among Super Sevens, we expect that in the near to mid-term the Super Sevens will continue to outperform the broader market. In ordinary times, investors could have simply established long positions in Super Sevens and wait to reap their harvests. However, we live in unprecedented times. WE LIVE IN TRULY UNPRECEDENTED TIMES Risks abound but no signs of it in equity markets. Historically, geopolitical instability, tightening financial conditions, and a deeply inverted curve could have led to crushing returns in the US equity markets. Not this time though. Peak concentration As mentioned earlier, bullishness in equity markets can be vastly attributed to just the Super Sevens. These seven have delivered crushing returns rising between 40% and 192% YTD. The S&P 500 index is market cap weighted. Super Sevens represent the largest companies in the index by market cap and their stellar performance has an outsized impact on the index. Is this a bull run or a bear market clouded by over optimism among Super Sevens? Deeply inverted yield curve In simple words, it costs far more to borrow for the near term (2 year) relative to the borrowing for long term (10-year). The US Treasury yield curves have been inverted for more than a year now. The difference between the 2-Year and 10-Year treasuries is at its widest level since the early 1980s. Inversion in yield curve has historically been a credible signal of recession ahead. When bonds with near term duration yield higher rates than those with longer-dated expiries, this precedes trouble in the economy. Recession. What recession? This period might go into the record books for the most long-awaited recession that is yet to come. For the last 12 months, experts have been calling for recession to show up in 3 months. While manufacturing sector seems feeble, labour market remains solid. Corporate balance sheets are robust. Consumer finances and consumer confidence are in good health. The VIX remains sanguine while the only fear indicator that appears unsettled is the MOVE index which indicates volatility in the bond markets. After having spiked earlier in the year, the MOVE is starting to soften as well. BETA HEDGING FOR PURE ALPHA In times of turbulence, risk management is not an afterthought but a necessity. Hedge delivers the edge. When there are ample arguments to be made for bullish and bearish markets, taking a directional position can be precarious. This paper posits Super Sevens holdings be hedged with CME Micro S&P 500 Futures. Hedging single stocks is nuanced. The stocks and the index do not always move in tandem. A given stock may be more volatile or less volatile relative to the benchmark. Beta is the sensitivity of the stock price relative to a benchmark. Beta is computed from daily returns over a defined historical period. Stocks with high Beta move a lot more than the underlying index. Stocks that move narrowly relative to its underlying benchmark exhibits low Beta. Beta hedging involves adjusting the notional value of a stock price based on its beta. Using beta-adjusted notional, hedging then involves taking an offsetting position in an index derivative contract to match the notional value. TradingView publishes beta values computed based on daily returns over the last 12 months. The following table illustrates the beta-adjusted notional for the Super Sevens based on the last traded prices as of close of market on June 16th. Beta hedging using CME Micro S&P 500 Futures enables investors to precisely scale their portfolio exposures to the index. A small contract size enables investors to manage risks with finer granularity. CME allows conversion of micro futures into a classic E-mini futures position, and vice versa. Round the clock liquidity combined with tight spreads and sizeable open interest across the two front contract months, investors can enter and exit the market at ease. BETA-HEDGED TRADE SET UP In unprecedented times like today, markets may continue to rally or come crashing. To harness pure alpha, this paper posits a spread with long positions in Super Sevens hedged by a short position in CME Micro S&P 500 Futures expiring in September 2023. This trade set-up gains when (a) Super Sevens rise faster than the S&P 500, or (b) Super Sevens suffers drop in value but falls lesser relative to S&P 500, or (c) Super Sevens gain while S&P 500 falls. This trade setup loses when (a) Super Seven falls faster than S&P 500, or (b) S&P 500 rises faster than Super Seven, or (c) S&P 500 rises while Super Sevens pullback Each CME Micro S&P 500 Futures has a multiplier of USD 5. The September contract settled on June 16th at 4453.75 implying a notional value of USD 22,269 (4453.75 * USD 5). Effective beta hedge requires that notional of the hedging trade is equivalent to the beta-adjusted notional value of single stock. Given the beta-adjusted notional value of USD 2,561 for single shares in Super Sevens and the notional value for each lot of CME Micro S&P 500 Futures at USD 22,269, the spread trade requires: a. A long position in 26 shares each across all the Super Sevens translating to a beta-adjusted notional of USD 66,576. b. Hedged by a short position with 3 lots of CME Micro S&P 500 Futures which provides a notional exposure of USD 66,807. The following table illustrates the hypothetical P&L of this spread trade under various scenarios: MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by mintdotfinance
3
💾 What Is Coinbase Saying? 218 Target Long-Term Mid to long-term, we are bullish and that's for sure. The only uncertainty remains for the short-term. For example, on the weekly timeframe we can see the inverse head and shoulders pattern forming, a classic reversal pattern: Notice the strong bullish bias on the weekly RSI that bottomed May 2022: The bulls have that going for themselves, a strong 2024 regardless of the short-term. Now, moving to the daily timeframe, the main chart above, first we notice the signal mentioned in the previous trade idea which is the high volume 6-June marking a low. The current structure is a bullish consolidation phase within a long-term higher low. Then we have these gaps that work for us as targets. Thanks to these gaps I was able to predict Tesla's (TSLA) recovery perfectly, not sure if you followed back in January 2023. The same situation here... If you have doubts short-term, I understand, we can't really know where it will go but, the long-term is 100% clear, the bigger picture is UP! Thank you for reading. Remember to boost, follow and comment to show your support. Namaste.
NASDAQ:COINLong
by AlanSantana
4
🚘 Elon Musk Presidential bid Bullish For Tesla?We have a very aggressive uptrend on the Tesla (TSLA) stock. This weekly chart allows room for additional growth but once the move is ongoing is really hard to tell. It is easy to predict the reversal as we did in early January 2023 but it is hard to predict the continuation. Reading the chart is also easy so let me tell you what I see. 1) Volume is super good and rising. 2) The RSI is super strong and has room available for additional growth. 3) Chart structure is bullish. 4) Fib. extension calls for more. #1 Is the initial bullish move. #2 Is the corrective phase. #3 Is the resumption of the bullish wave... Sounds familiar? Bitcoin & the Cryptocurrency market is set to follow and grow. This chart is the confirmation. Elon's Musk presidential bid is bullish for this stock. Namaste.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by AlanSantana
18
🚘 Tesla Hits 7 Month High, Bitcoin, The Stock Market & MoreAfter a strong higher low in April (vs Jan.) the Tesla, Inc. stock TSLA moved to hit a 7 months high. Higher lows lead to higher highs. All the markets are interrelated. They are moving together and doing the same... Let's look at some examples: 1) In January Bitcoin, the SPX, etc. produced a bullish wave, this is true for Tesla as well. 2) Mid-March Bitcoin, the SPX, etc. produced a bounce/support, this is true for Tesla as well. 3) April/May marked the date that all the major indexes, stocks and Cryptocurrencies produced a long-term higher low (vs Nov/Dec 2022). 4) Present time, a group of these assets and indexes are moving ahead. Those staying behind are sure to follow based on past history... That's my theory. See more in my Bitcoin article, the full theory explained. Namaste.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by AlanSantana
SP500 - Compared to M2 Supply.I want to give you all a perspective on how low the corona drop actually was. Most bears are calling for extreme lows but they don't really understand the M2 supply. Our bottom we had in 2022 was most likely the bottom of this bear market. US came into a recession in april last year. The average recession lasts for 10 months. This makes you think. New ATH in all indexes is most likely to occur in 1-2 years from here. The market top before a bigger crash might come 2025/2026 IMO. We have gone up for months since the bottom and now when the bears have turned into bulls its time for the last shake out. I believe that we will retrace from here and go down during the summer and then continue up towards new highs around September this year. Of course you can't time the market exactly, many different things can happen along the way. Buying long term assets at these prices and lower is absolutely a good idea. You will most likely be rewarded later on. I hope you learned something. Take care.
SP:SPX
by WealthNode
2
Ninja Talks EP 9: Despair and HopeDespair and Hope, two sides of the same coin and the two emotions that rule your decision making. In my 10+ years of trading experience, I'm not sure it's even possible to not feel or be aware of them in some way - what I'm saying is, I don't know if you can get rid of them entirely from your trading. It may just be a constant (and natural) part of being a trader. These days I use the intuition, awareness and knowledge about these two emotions to make the bulk of my money. Techniques are autopilot at this point, same goes for money management, but psychology - hope - despair? They seem to be a daily "battle". I put "battle" in quotes because, yes it's back and fourth but it doesn't need to be adversarial, do'ya know what I mean? Too many Bambi traders run from despair and seek hope, but I use them differently - I use them as sensors of when to time an entry and exit perfectly - kinda like parking sensors on modern day cars, they're there to warn you - it's not good or bad, it's just warning you. Hope this helps, follow for more Ninja Talks. Nick
NASDAQ:TSLAEducation
by NinjaTradingServices
Tesla – a momentum juggernaut with AI qualities We’ve just seen Tesla push higher for a 13th straight day and signs are it could rally for a 14th. This is obviously an incredible run of form, especially as there simply haven’t been any positive earnings revisions – however, earning aside, investors have seen a 70% return since May (110% YTD), and the stock is hot, but is it too hot? Fundamentally, we’ve seen positive tailwinds from the news that GM and Ford are moving their EVs to utilise Tesla’s Supercharger, as well as tax breaks for owners of the Model 3. Tesla is seen foremost as an AI business Arguably, the key fundamental reason is the market treating Tesla as an AI business, rather than a high-tech EV/auto business. Importantly, Tesla is not the only auto business evolving like this and buying chips from Nvidia, but they have first movers’ advantage and traders like the liquidity and ease at which they can trade the flow – either through direct equity or through optionality. Recent intel shows Tesla is buying Nvidia chips for their data centres, and as they strive to improve the safety and reliability of their autonomous cars, Nvidia’s chips help train their models and increase computing processing capabilities. There has been investor focus on the demand for Nvidia’s chips that are central to the evolution that is playing out in ‘Software-Defined Vehicles’ – Tesla first pioneered this scene in 2012, but now Nvidia is helping to take this forward. This article explains it well (www2.deloitte.com) but the idea of having a chip in a centralised computer that can be upgraded – just as a phone can, will appeal to many. In theory, it will only increase the vehicle’s performance and offer the user greater comforts without expensive purchases and trips to the garage. It seems the market is being educated on this now. Momentum is a clear driving force Aside from the AI tailwinds, there is an out-and-out momentum play here. Traders want to buy what is strong and then ultimately sell at higher levels. The options crowd buy upside calls (slightly out-of-the-money) and as the price moves higher options dealers (who sold the calls) must hedge their exposure – they do that by buying Tesla’s stock and this just perpetuates the move higher. There is also limited supply, with few looking to sell. I see some technicians screaming that Tesla has an RSI of 88, suggesting an imminent collapse. To me, it suggests the risk/reward trade-off is certainly turning and putting new money to work at these levels carries a higher risk. One can buy and hope it kicks further but be quick to cut any loss. Shorting has hurt and many will want higher conviction in the price action to reload. Of course, at some stage, a fraction of the fast-money players will bank some profits, and that is where the opportunity is for the short sellers, especially the day traders - if the algo’s sense the sellers are finally out there then it may see a more protracted sell-off. Personally, I would stay with the momentum and look to buy weakness – the market still has more to explore on the AI front. PS analyst - Chris Weston
Editors' picks
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by Pepperstone
8
Tesla -> Not Slowing DownHello Traders, welcome to this free and educational multi-timeframe technical analysis. On the weekly timeframe you can see that Tesla stock is currently breaking a bunch of resistance towards the upside, showing very strong bullish buying pressure overall. You can also see that Tesla is approaching resistance at the $270 from which we could see a short term rejection towards the downside considering that over the past couple of weeks, Tesla stock rallied roughly 70% towards the upside. On the daily timeframe you can see that market structure and momentum is still massively bullish so there is no reason to short Tesla now, I am personally waiting for a retest of the $230 level before I then do expect another bullish rally from there. Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow! You can also check out my previous analysis of this asset:
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by basictradingtv
43
Tesla poised for a breakoutNASDAQ:TSLA - Tesla the "EV Maker" has seen a massive comeback from the low $100s. Tesla tested the $200 mark in February after which we have seen approximately 30% correction which partially filled the gap created in January. Per the diagram we can see that Tesla NASDAQ:TSLA is forming a classic extended broadening wedge pattern, which can indicate consolidation before continuation to the upside. There is significant hype around AI since ChatGPT since launch. We believe Tesla is well positioned to take advantage of the AI revolution. Tesla has made significant progress in AI specifically with their self driving capabilities. Tesla has an abundance of data due to their extensive fleet of vehicles on the road, collecting data daily. This data is used to train its AI algorithms, enabling Tesla to develop more refined and accurate models over time. As of 2023, Tesla has gathered data from over 35 million Full Self-Driving (FSD) miles driven by its fleet, giving it a significant data advantage over competitors. Remember your AI models is only as good as the data you can train it on. Proprietary datasets are gold in the AI/Machine learning world. Tesla's ultimate ambition is to establish a Robotaxi service, where Tesla cars function autonomously without the need for a human driver. Success in this endeavour is not guaranteed, but should they achieve this goal, it could provide Tesla with a substantial competitive edge in the electric vehicle market. In addition to this, Tesla has Optimus (AI robot), but we shall not dive into that in this thread. Tesla plans to grow vehicle deliveries by more than 50% in 2023. The company also expects to see a significant growth in its energy business and is planning to expand its production capacity. The company is also making progress on its Semi and Cybertruck, with deliveries expected to begin soon. Tesla's new factory in Mexico is also expected to increase the company's production capacity and produce electric vehicles based on Tesla's new vehicle platform. (Low cost vehicle platform. Entry points: Accumulation of entries between $168 to $196. Ultimate confirmation would be a daily/weekly break and close above the wedge line. Targets: TP1: $242 - 0.618 Fib Retracement TP2: $306 - 0.786 Fib Retracement - this also aligns with an order block between $294 & $312. TP3: $376 - Just under 10% away from its previous ATH Stop Loss: $163 - Wide stop loss due to volatile nature of Tesla Leverage: Max 5x - I personally use a combination of spot holdings and 5x leverage to take advantage of shorter term swings.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by TraderMagz
3
$TSLA Tesla - Too Much Speculation in The Price #StocksIn the short term, remnants of "the growth that was" has Tesla stock anchored to some higher prices. In the long term, the forecast looks a little more cloudy. I wouldn't be surprised to see Tesla stock hit $200 or lower again before the next bull market REALLY begins. The stock is now trading outside of it's fundamental range of value. I would take the draw down from Friday as a sign of what's to come in the future. Check out the Equity Channel Podcast on Apple, Spotify and Amazon to get more insights on trading and investing.
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by D1Finance
2