Get started

Teslaanalysis

Musk Prioritizes Other Ventures Over TeslaMusk Prioritizes Other Ventures Over Tesla: AI Chips Diverted to X and xAI A recent leak from internal Nvidia emails obtained by CNBC has raised questions about Elon Musk's leadership of Tesla. The emails reportedly show Musk directing the chipmaker to prioritize shipments of thousands of artificial intelligence (AI) processors originally reserved for Tesla to two of his other companies, X and xAI. This move has caused delays in Tesla's receipt of these crucial components, potentially impacting the company's AI development goals. This news comes amidst Musk's ambitious push to establish Tesla as a leader in the AI and robotics space. Tesla has significantly increased its purchases of Nvidia's flagship AI chip, the H100, aiming to grow its active chip count from 35,000 to 85,000 by the end of 2 024. To support this growth, Tesla reportedly allocated a significant portion of its budget to AI training and inference, estimated at $10 billion for the year. Diverting these chips to X and xAI throws a wrench into Tesla's plans. The delay in receiving over $500 million worth of processors could potentially slow down Tesla's AI development initiatives. This raises concerns about potential conflicts of interest and the prioritization of Musk's various ventures. Here's a deeper dive into the implications of this situation: • Impact on Tesla's AI Development: The delayed arrival of AI chips could hinder Tesla's progress in areas like autonomous driving and other AI-powered features planned for its vehicles. This could lead to delays in the rollout of new features or impact the performance of existing ones. • Investor Confidence: Tesla's investors might be wary of Musk's leadership if they perceive a lack of focus on Tesla's core business. Diverting resources to other ventures could raise questions about his commitment to Tesla's success. • Conflict of Interest: Some may question the ethical implications of a CEO prioritizing chip allocation for his other companies over the one he leads. This could raise concerns about Musk's use of his position for personal gain. • Transparency and Communication: The lack of transparency surrounding the chip allocation decision could further erode investor confidence. Tesla shareholders deserve clear communication regarding the rationale behind this move. While the exact purpose of X and xAI remains unclear, some speculate these companies might be involved in ventures related to Neuralink, another of Musk's ventures focused on brain-computer interfaces. The situation warrants further investigation. Here are some key questions that need answers: • Justification for Chip Diversion: What is the rationale behind prioritizing X and xAI over Tesla for these crucial AI chips? • Impact on Tesla's Roadmap: How will the delay in receiving the chips affect Tesla's AI development roadmap and the rollout of new features? • Disclosure and Transparency: Were Tesla shareholders made aware of the potential delays caused by chip allocation to other companies? Only time will tell how this situation unfolds. However, one thing is clear: the decision to divert AI chips away from Tesla has raised serious concerns that demand proper explanation and a commitment to Tesla's continued success in the AI race.
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by bryandowningqln
Elon Musk Faces $7.5B Insider Trading Allegation From Tesla SharTesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) CEO Elon Musk has been accused of insider trading after selling shares worth over $7.5 billion in the last two months of 2022. The lawsuit, filed by shareholder Michael Perry in the Delaware Chancery Court, claims that Musk sold a total of over $7.5 billion worth of Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) shares in late 2022 before the disclosure of disappointing fourth-quarter production and delivery numbers. Perry alleges that Musk, using his access to real-time data, was aware of the lower-than-expected numbers when he sold shares worth $3.95 billion in November 2022 and $3.58 billion in December 2022. Tesla's stock ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) fell to $108.10 on January 3, down from the $123.18 it closed on December 30, and the lawsuit pegged Musk's "insider profits" for the aforementioned share sales at about $3 billion. The lawsuit also accuses then-Tesla directors of breach of fiduciary duty of loyalty for allowing Musk's sales and is seeking a directive from the court that all profits obtained from these share sales be returned. The lawsuit is the latest of legal hurdles for the EV giant, as Musk's 2018 pay package, worth $56 billion at the time of award, was rescinded by a Delaware court earlier this year. Tesla's board is trying to have it reinstated by a shareholder vote again in June. Tesla stock ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) closed Friday's trading session down 0.4% with a Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 52.21 which is moderate. Tesla is in a consolidation zone for the past 3 weeks.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by DEXWireNews
Tesla - Triangle and -33% drop!Hello Traders and Investors, today I will take a look at Tesla . -------- Explanation of my video analysis: With Tesla stock breaking above previous resistance in 2019 and coming back to retest it in 2020, this stock then took off and created one of the most insane rallies which I have ever seen. At the moment though, Tesla is consolidating in a descending triangle formation and there is a high chance that Tesla will again come back to retest the lower support at $110 for a third time. -------- Keep your long term vision, Philip (BasicTrading)
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by basictradingtv
8
Tesla - Clear flag formation!Hello Traders and Investors, today I will take a look at Tesla . -------- Explanation of my video analysis: After the triangle breakout and the bullish break and retest on Tesla stock back in 2020, we saw a significant rally of 1.500% towards the upside. For 3 years Tesla has now been trading in a decent bullish flag formation and just broke an important support area towards the downside. However at the moment Tesla is literally in no man's land so it is better to wait for the next retest of structure. -------- Keep your long term vision, Philip (BasicTrading)
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by basictradingtv
10
Should You Short Tesla? A Look at China's Potential RisksShould You Short Tesla? A Look at China's Market Rebound and Potential Risks Tesla (TSLA) stock has been on a downward spiral in 2024, and some investors are considering shorting the stock. This strategy involves borrowing shares, selling them at a high price, hoping the price falls, and then repurchasing them at a lower price to return to the lender. While China's electric vehicle (EV) market rebound and competition from local players present challenges for Tesla, shorting the stock comes with significant risks. China's EV Market Rebound: A Double-Edged Sword China, the world's largest EV market, experienced a slow start in 2024 due to various factors, including supply chain disruptions and COVID-19 lockdowns. However, recent reports indicate a significant rebound in April. This is good news for the overall EV industry, but it's a mixed bag for Tesla. Tesla's China Woes: • Sales Slump: While Chinese EV makers like BYD and NIO reported strong sales growth in April, Tesla's sales in China dropped significantly compared to the previous month. This could be due to a combination of factors: o Increased Competition: Chinese manufacturers are offering a wider range of EVs at competitive price points, catering to local preferences. o Brand Perception: Recent quality control issues and negative publicity might be impacting consumer trust in Tesla. Headwinds for Tesla: Beyond China, there are other concerns for Tesla: • Job Cuts and Demand Concerns: Tesla's recent job cuts fueled speculation about weakening global demand, potentially leading to production slowdowns. • Macroeconomic Factors: Rising interest rates and inflation could dampen consumer spending on high-priced EVs. • Increased Competition: Legacy automakers are aggressively entering the EV market with advanced technology and established production capabilities. The Case Against Shorting Tesla Despite these challenges, shorting Tesla comes with inherent risks: • Short Squeeze: If Tesla's stock price unexpectedly rises, short sellers face significant losses as they scramble to repurchase shares at a higher price. Tesla has a large and passionate fanbase who might jump in to buy the dip, further squeezing short positions. • Elon Musk Factor: Tesla CEO Elon Musk is known for his unpredictable actions and ability to rally investor sentiment. A positive announcement or innovation could trigger a sharp stock price increase, catching short sellers off guard. • Long-Term Potential: Tesla remains a leader in EV technology and innovation. The company continues to invest in R&D and expand its production capacity, potentially positioning itself for future growth. Alternative Strategies Instead of shorting Tesla, investors might consider these options: • Put Options: Put options allow investors to profit if the stock price falls. This strategy offers limited downside risk compared to shorting. • Investing in Competitors: Investors could look at Chinese EV companies that are gaining market share, potentially benefiting from the rebounding market. • Hedging: Combining long positions in Tesla with short positions in other EV stocks can create a more balanced portfolio. Conclusion
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by bryandowningqln
Tesla - Is it a fakeout?Hello Traders and Investors, today I will take a look at Tesla. -------- Explanation of my video analysis: Back in 2020 we had a decent break and retest on Tesla stock which was followed by a pump of +1.500% towards the upside. Then Tesla topped out in 2021 and we saw sideways movement ever since. At the moment Tesla stock is trading in a bullish flag formation and is hovering around the psychological $200 level. Soon there will be a very interesting trading opportunity on Tesla stock. -------- Keep your long term vision, Philip (BasicTrading)
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by basictradingtv
4
TESLA MOTORS UPDATEDHello Traders and stocks holders. its been a while since my idea got doomed, but timely it will make a perfect decisions on buying this stock or you're doing a DCA, like buying the stock every Paychecks received. This idea can be perfect or can be doomed again, lol. But still preferred on buying for longterm. This is not a financial advice, you either trade it options or holding the real stock.. Final words all ideas are not perfect, "Only Gods and the dead can seem perfect with impunity" Law 46
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by D1GITALTRADES
Tesla Takes Flight: Is China's Approval Enough to Go Long? Tesla's stock price recently soared after receiving "in-principle" approval from Chinese authorities to deploy its driver-assistance system in the world's largest auto market. This news undoubtedly fueled investor optimism, but is it enough justification to take a long position on Tesla stock (TSLA)? Let's delve deeper into the implications and weigh the risks before making a call. China's Green Light: A Major Tailwind China's tentative approval for Tesla's driver-assistance system is a significant development. China represents a crucial battleground for electric vehicle (EV) manufacturers, and Tesla has faced stiff competition from domestic players like BYD. Gaining official sanction for its advanced driving system removes a potential hurdle and paves the way for increased sales in China. This could significantly boost Tesla's revenue and profitability in the long run. Beyond China: A Broader Growth Story Tesla's appeal extends far beyond China. The company remains a leader in the EV revolution, continuously innovating and expanding its product line. With the Cybertruck launch and the ongoing success of Model 3 and Model Y, Tesla is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing global demand for EVs. Additionally, Tesla's focus on autonomous driving technology positions it at the forefront of a potentially transformative industry shift. Risks to Consider: Not All Sunshine and Self-Driving Cars While the China news is positive, there are factors to consider before going all-in on Tesla. Regulatory hurdles remain, with the final details and limitations of the driver-assistance system approval in China still unknown. Additionally, competition in the EV space is fierce and constantly evolving. Established automakers are rapidly entering the fray, and new startups are nipping at Tesla's heels. Furthermore, Tesla faces ongoing challenges related to production issues, battery supply chain constraints, and potential safety concerns surrounding its Autopilot technology. These factors can lead to stock price volatility and production delays. Beyond the Headlines: Look at the Fundamentals Making a sound investment decision requires looking beyond just the latest headlines. Here are some key metrics to consider for Tesla: • Valuation: Tesla currently trades at a high valuation compared to traditional automakers. This implies that the market has already priced in a lot of future growth potential. • Overall Market Conditions: The broader stock market can significantly impact Tesla's share price. Investors should be aware of potential economic downturns that could affect growth stocks like Tesla disproportionately. The Verdict: A Calculated Approach, Not a Blind Leap China's approval for Tesla's driver-assistance system is undoubtedly positive news. However, it's just one piece of the puzzle. Investors considering a long position on Tesla should conduct thorough research, understand the inherent risks involved, and carefully evaluate their risk tolerance. A diversified portfolio with exposure to other EV players and established automakers might be a prudent strategy. Tesla is a company with immense potential, but its future success is not guaranteed. A well-informed and measured approach is crucial before taking a long position on TSLA.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by bryandowningqln
Tesla Set to Cut 2700 jobs in Austin & over 3,300 in CaliforniaTesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) is set to cut over 3,332 jobs throughout the state of California, and 2,688 jobs in Austin, Texas according to Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification (WARN) Act letters and notices filed in both states. The layoffs are part of a broader restructuring that the electric vehicle maker announced last week. In 2021, Tesla CEO Elon Musk moved the company's corporate headquarters to Austin from Palo Alto, California. Musk said in an internal memo last weekend that Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) was cutting more than 10% of its global headcount as the electric vehicle maker reckons with flagging sales and increased competition. He did not say which departments or locations would be most affected. "As we prepare the company for our next phase of growth, it is extremely important to look at every aspect of the company for cost reductions and increasing productivity," he wrote. A subsequent WARN notice filed in New York indicated that 285 positions were being eliminated at a factory in Buffalo. Tesla employed has employed 140,473 people in total as of December 2023, according to filings. The company has officially opened its Texas EV and battery factory in April 2022, with a "cyber rodeo" party. The company now manufactures some of its Model Y crossover utility vehicles in Austin, and has started to build its Cybertruck there. Musk later called the Austin factory, and another assembly plant in Germany, "gigantic money furnaces," in an interview with Tesla Owners Silicon Valley, a fan club that promotes Tesla vehicles. According to filings with the Texas Department of Licensing and Regulation, Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) was planning to spend upward of $770 million last year on the construction of expanded facilities in Austin, including for battery cell testing and manufacturing, cathode and drive unit manufacturing, plus a die shop, among other things. Tuesday's WARN filings said, "none of the employees are represented by a union and none of the employees have bumping rights," or the right of more senior workers to replace those with less seniority. The layoffs in California included 2,266 people in Fremont, which is home to Tesla's first U.S. vehicle assembly plant, and 486 employees in Palo Alto, home to Tesla's engineering headquarters. The cuts impacted workers at the company's factories, engineering offices, stores, showrooms and service centers throughout the state. Jobs were also cut in Burbank and Lathrop, where Tesla makes spare parts at a foundry and assembles Megapack, battery energy storage systems.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by DEXWireNews
Tesla - Don't get caught up!Hello Traders and Investors, today I will take a look at Tesla. -------- Explanation of my video analysis: In 2020 Tesla stock created a beautiful break and retest of the previous all time high which was followed by significant continuation towards the upside. After this pump Tesla stock entered a long term consolidation phase, forming a bullish flag formation. Considering that Tesla just retested and rejected the upper resistance, there is a quite high chance that we will retest the next support at $120. -------- Keep your long term vision, Philip (BasicTrading)
NASDAQ:TSLA
by basictradingtv
1
Tesla Stock in Limbo: A 43% Plunge Leaves Investors Wary Ahead oTesla, once the undisputed champion of the electric vehicle (EV) market, finds itself in a precarious position. The company's stock price has been on a downward spiral, tumbling nearly 43% in the last month. This dramatic decline has left investors apprehensive as Tesla prepares to report its earnings. Several factors are contributing to the bearish sentiment surrounding Tesla. Firstly, concerns are swirling about the company's business strategy. Sales of electric vehicles have dipped, raising questions about whether Tesla can maintain its growth trajectory. The much-anticipated Cybertruck has yet to materialize, and delays in the rollout of the cheaper electric vehicle have further dampened investor enthusiasm. Elon Musk, Tesla's enigmatic CEO, hasn't helped matters. His focus on ventures outside of Tesla, coupled with his penchant for making controversial pronouncements, has sown seeds of doubt among some investors. They worry that Musk's attention is divided, potentially hindering Tesla's ability to navigate the increasingly competitive EV landscape. Adding to the woes is the overall market correction. Rising interest rates and inflation have dampened investor appetite for growth stocks, a category Tesla once dominated. Tesla's lofty valuation, currently sitting at nearly 47 times forward earnings, also makes it a prime target for a sell-off. This high valuation is particularly concerning given the recent sales slump and the uncertain outlook for the EV market. However, there is a silver lining. The recent plunge has pushed Tesla's stock price into what some analysts call "no man's land." This means there's a significant gap between the current price and potential downside. While the stock could fall further, the dramatic decline has already priced in a considerable amount of negativity. This could pave the way for a "relief rally" if Tesla's earnings report isn't a complete disaster. Some analysts believe the negative sentiment has been overblown. They argue that Tesla's brand recognition and technological prowess still position it well for the future. The upcoming launch of the Robotaxi service in August could be a game-changer, generating new revenue streams and reigniting investor confidence. The coming weeks will be crucial for Tesla. The earnings report will be a watershed moment, determining whether the company can regain its footing or succumb to the current headwinds. Investors will be keenly watching for any signs of a turnaround in sales, updates on the Cybertruck and the cheaper EV rollout, and any concrete plans for the Robotaxi service. Tesla's story is far from over. The company's future hinges on its ability to navigate the current challenges, deliver on its promises, and adapt to the evolving EV market. Only time will tell if Tesla can emerge from this "no man's land" and reclaim its pole position in the electric vehicle revolution.
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by bryandowningqln
Tesla Inc. ($TSLA) Announced Price Cuts Across its Electric CarsTesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) recently announced sweeping price cuts across its electric vehicle (EV) lineup and Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology, signaling a strategic shift amidst mounting challenges. However, as the stock continues its downward spiral, investors are left pondering whether these aggressive pricing maneuvers will be enough to steer the company back on course. A Strategic Pivot Amidst Turbulent Times Tesla's decision to slash prices on EVs and FSD comes at a critical juncture for the company. With Elon Musk postponing a highly anticipated trip to India and reports swirling about delayed plans for a Tesla factory in the region, the EV giant finds itself navigating choppy waters both at home and abroad. The latest round of price cuts underscores Tesla's efforts to stay competitive in an increasingly crowded market while grappling with supply chain disruptions, geopolitical tensions, and regulatory scrutiny. Yet, amidst these headwinds, questions loom large about the sustainability of Tesla's growth trajectory. EV Price Wars: By reducing the entry prices of key models like the Model Y, Model S, and Model X, Tesla aims to stimulate demand and maintain its market dominance. However, with production constraints still a concern, the impact of these price cuts on profitability remains uncertain. Will lower prices be enough to offset rising costs and dwindling margins? Moreover, the decision to leave Cybertruck and Model 3 prices unchanged raises eyebrows, hinting at potential supply chain constraints or strategic prioritization. As competitors ramp up their EV offerings and governments incentivize electrification, Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) faces heightened pressure to deliver on its promises while staying ahead of the curve. FSD: A Price Cut or a Pricing Conundrum? Tesla's ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) move to reduce the price of its FSD technology reflects a broader push to democratize autonomous driving. However, the disparity between the subscription and purchase options raises questions about the company's revenue model and long-term viability. While a lower FSD price may entice more customers to opt in, the subscription model could cannibalize upfront sales and erode profitability over time. With Musk doubling down on autonomous driving as a cornerstone of Tesla's future, striking the right balance between accessibility and profitability remains a formidable challenge. Earnings Call Anticipation: Seeking Clarity Amidst Uncertainty As Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) prepares to release its quarterly earnings, all eyes are on Musk and company executives to provide clarity on the company's strategy and outlook. Amidst swirling rumors of workforce layoffs and production setbacks, investors are hungry for reassurance that Tesla can weather the storm and emerge stronger than ever. Conclusion: Tesla's pricing gamble represents a calculated bet on the company's ability to navigate the turbulent waters of the EV market. As competition heats up and external pressures mount, Tesla must tread carefully to strike the right balance between growth and sustainability. While price cuts may provide a short-term boost to demand, the long-term success of Tesla hinges on its ability to deliver on its promises, innovate in the face of adversity, and stay ahead of the curve in a rapidly evolving industry. As investors brace for Tesla's earnings call, one thing remains clear: the road ahead is fraught with challenges, but for those willing to take the journey, the rewards may be greater than ever imagined.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by DEXWireNews
🚀Achieving a 608% Return in 1.5 Years with Tesla🎉Strategic Accumulation and Staggered Profit Realization: A Tesla Inc. Trading Blueprint As we navigate through the dynamic realms of the stock market, strategic positioning in robust companies like Tesla Inc. has often rewarded investors with significant returns. This analysis showcases a meticulous approach to capitalizing on Tesla's stock through a well-planned buying and phased selling strategy. Starting with a foundational investment, a series of calculated purchases were executed during Tesla's undulating price journey. The initial acquisition was made at $141.80, followed by a secondary purchase at $120.05, and a strategic third buy at a favorable $81.87, each funded with $10k. This average-down approach not only reduced the overall cost basis but also positioned the investment for amplified returns during price surges. Moving on to the realization of profits, a phased selling strategy was implemented. The first tranche of stock was sold at $299, representing a significant uptrend from the averaged buying price. The subsequent sell-offs were at even more elevated price points of $637 and $1355, each constituting one-third and the final tranche a slightly larger portion of the holdings, at thirty-four percent. This trading strategy emphasizes the importance of patience and discipline, ensuring that each sell-off point was not prematurely triggered but rather aligned with substantial price appreciations, marking a staggering overall gain. By sharing this strategy and its successful outcome, I aim to inspire and equip fellow traders with a framework that underscores timing, accumulation, and strategic exits in trading sessions. May this insight serve as a beacon for your trading endeavors on the tumultuous seas of the stock market.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by srmustafabas
1
Tesla Loses Half-Trillion Dollar Shine: Bulls Feeling the SqueezTesla, the electric vehicle (EV) pioneer, has hit a rough patch in 2024. This week, the company's market valuation slipped below $500 billion, marking a significant blow to investors who had placed big bets on Tesla's continued growth. Several factors seem to be contributing to Tesla's woes. Firstly, concerns are mounting about the company's ability to maintain its breakneck growth trajectory. Recent reports indicate weaker-than-expected sales figures, leading some analysts to question whether Tesla can meet its ambitious production targets. Adding fuel to the fire, Tesla announced a round of job cuts this week, further amplifying anxieties about slowing growth. is decline coincides with a broader slump in the company's stock price, which has shed a staggering 37% so far this year. Secondly, a recent exodus of high-ranking executives has rattled investor confidence. Several key figures have departed Tesla in recent months, leaving a void in leadership This instability at the top management level has cast a shadow over the company's future direction. These developments have significantly dampened the enthusiasm of investors who had previously been bullish on Tesla. The company's stock has become one of the worst performers on the prestigious S&P 500 Index in 2024, erasing a colossal $290 billion in shareholder wealth. This decline marks a stark turnaround from the meteoric rise Tesla experienced in previous years, when its stock price soared on the promise of a revolutionary electric vehicle future. However, some analysts remain optimistic about Tesla's long-term prospects. They point to the company's continued innovation in battery technology and its lead in the EV market as reasons for hope. They argue that the recent stock price slump presents a buying opportunity for those with a long-term investment horizon. "Tesla has been through disasters before," said one analyst, "We maintain our outperform rating on the stock." This sentiment is echoed by others who believe that Tesla's core strengths remain unmatched and that the current challenges are merely temporary hurdles. Only time will tell whether Tesla can weather this storm and reclaim its former glory. The coming months will be crucial as the company strives to address concerns about slowing growth, leadership changes, and a softening market. Tesla's ability to reignite investor confidence and reignite sales growth will determine whether the bulls can once again take the reins.
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by bryandowningqln
TESLA $TSLA - Feb. 16th, 2024Tesla NASDAQ:TSLA NASDAQ TVC:NDQ BUY/LONG ZONE (GREEN): $195.75 - $260.50 (BUY ZONE ADJUSTABLE DOWN TO 208.50) DO NOT TRADE/DNT ZONE (WHITE): $177.25 - $195.75 (DNT ZONE ADJUSTABLE UP TO $208.50) SELL/SHORT ZONE (RED): $113.00 - $177.25 Tesla broke out of its range lasting from Jan. 25th - Feb 15th. Breakout price was at 195.75, the Feb 15th daily candle broke and closed above this price level. This can mark a bullish trend, however; a safer bullish zone can be extended to start at 208.50, with the DNT zone also extending to end at 208.50. I personally like the early entries after a strong bullish candle yesterday with over a +6% move. Some other high frame bullish entries could be a retest of the top of the range, or a breakout of the 208.50 area. Some high frame bearish entries could be a test and rejection of the 208.50 area, or a break back into the range area. Long term targets would be the 230 - 260 area, would need another look once price moves closer. I quickly marked every recent structure 1 - 6 that I considered when looking to enter a new position to show somewhat where my mind was at. As price moves to new levels and zones and develops new structure I will update this. This is what I would personally look at before entering trades, everything is subject to change on a daily basis and as I analyze different timeframes and ideas. ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY, NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE!
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by TonyAiello
Tesla's Production Numbers in Last QuarterI wanted to bring to your attention the recent news regarding Tesla's Q1 2024 deliveries. There are reports that deliveries fell short of expectations compared to the previous quarter. This development, along with concerns about the economy and evolving consumer preferences in the electric vehicle market, could have an impact on Tesla's stock price. It's important to consider this news along with other factors, such as Tesla's long-term position in the EV space and overall market conditions when making investment decisions. As always, it is important to conduct thorough research and analysis before making any investment decisions. Please feel free to reach out in the comments if you have any questions or would like to discuss this further.
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by bryandowningqln
Is The EV Hype Over? How The Fed Is Destroying TeslaThe first quarter of 2024 is now over, closing in a record +10% YTD rally and an exceptional +43% YOY increase in the QQQ. Despite the markets pushing higher, Tesla is experiencing significant challenges, with a -30% decrease YTD and a -9% decline YOY. This performance has positioned Tesla as the worst performing megacap so far. Given these circumstances, it's essential to delve into both macroeconomic factors and technical analysis to understand what has happened and what is likely to happen moving forward. The Macroeconomic Impact on Tesla Two years ago, the Federal Reserve initiated a historic rate-hiking cycle, increasing interest rates from 0% to 5.5% within just over a year and maintaining this rate since July 2023. This shift in monetary policy has notably affected car financing rates, now at 8.2% for a five-year loan, which significantly discourages consumers from buying new vehicles, especially EVs. The chart clearly illustrates an inverse correlation between Tesla stock and interest rates. Moreover, Tesla has operated exclusively during periods of historically low interest rates. Despite the Federal Reserve pausing rate hikes nine months ago, the interest rate on car loans continues to rise. Further examination of inflation trends indicates that most common inflation measures have either plateaued or slowed their pace of deceleration, at a level inconsistent with the Fed's 2% inflation target. The M2 money supply and inflation expectations are critical indicators for predicting the direction of inflation. The peak in the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) followed the peak in M2 YOY by 16 months, recently bottoming just three months before CPI YOY stopped making progress to the downside. This lagged correlation suggests that headline CPI is unlikely to continue its strong downward trend moving forward. Moreover, inflation expectations, which remain well anchored, have also appeared to stop making progress to the downside, all remaining above 2%. This, combined with unchanged interest rates for nine months, suggests that the neutral rate of interest must be significantly higher than the pre-COVID trend. Historically, recessions have played a key role in helping the Fed bring down inflation to their 2% target. However, current economic indicators, including low unemployment levels and easy financial conditions, suggest that a recession is unlikely in the near future, despite the fed funds rate staying unchanged at a two-decade high. The Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) captures the stimulative effects on the economy from the U.S. government's expansive fiscal policy. By borrowing and spending trillions directly from the Reverse Repo (RRP), the U.S. government has ingeniously counterbalanced the constrictive effects of tighter monetary policy without exerting upward pressure on long-term yields. The prolonged inversion of the yield curve, significantly extended by the U.S. government's financial strategies, could mark this cycle as having the longest inversion in history. Typically, a steepening yield curve is a precursor to higher unemployment and economic recession. However, the steepening of the yield curve remains unlikely in the short term, with excess reserves still available in the RRP and the Treasury General Account (TGA). With the U.S. employment sector still robust, showing historically low unemployment levels and low initial and continued claims, the likelihood of a significant uptrend in the unemployment rate seems low, as job openings are absorbing most of the excess labor supply and still remain well above the historical trend. This suggests that the fed funds rate may remain at around 5% this year, maintaining car loan rates at a higher level for an extended period and consequently making EVs increasingly less affordable for the average consumer. This scenario is likely to lead to a continuation of price cuts and greater margin contractions. Tesla's Technical Analysis Outlook From a technical analysis perspective, Tesla stock faced rejection at the $205 horizontal resistance line and might be rejected from the $180 level, marked by the 0.236 Fibonacci level. The next significant support level is at $155, with a possibility of revisiting the January 2023 low of $110, given Tesla's stock has been in a downward trend ever since November 2021. From a trend-based perspective, we can clearly see that TSLA stock is in a strong downtrend both in the 4H and daily timeframe with the EMAs and 20- week SMA trending lower. Despite this unfavourable outlook, caution is advised when considering short positions in Tesla due to its market dominance and relatively stable financial position, making it a riskier target than other less financially secure EV manufacturers. Concluding Thoughts While the broader market demonstrates resilience, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is significantly shaping the EVs industry future. With the economy likely transitioning away from historically low interest rates into a higher interest rate environment, caution is advised. Investors may benefit from considering less interest-rate-sensitive options until a clearer picture of the inflationary landscape and its impact on the economy emerges. Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice.
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by ingeforberg
2