MY NOT SO MINIMALIST ANALYSIS FOR TESLA10.15.21 0842H +8 SINGAPORE
ALERT: WAITING FOR a PARTIAL EXIT/PROBABLE TOP-UP
LONG TERM SWING TARGET beyond MAXIMUM TARGET AREA OF VALUE
Chart shows several ENTRIES and projected gains
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It is designed for SWING TRADES at the BOTTOM. I do not SHORT, though, you can still use it.
Created on a WEEKLY & DAILY Analysis of Dynamics of the Market.
LARGE BOXES are major pivots that will occur, while the small boxes are MINOR PIVOTS. These can be entries to a BUY/ SELL POSITION or an EXIT/PARTIAL EXIT/TOP-UP AREAS.
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Price action, candlestick /bars, and FIBS alone will be sufficient as a major deciding factor for this MINIMALIST CHART.
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Teslamotors
Teslas moment of truth - My interpretationI might be overestimating the importance of yesterdays trading session but I think this symmetrical triangle signals an important reversal.
The way I see it, yesterday the market made up it's mind for Tesla and now there was a reversal in the 4 month long uptrend.
TESLA. HOLD OR SELL? WHEN TO BUY. CHAPTER 2Hey friends!
My last idea was successful in the direction of the Bulls.
The first profit-taking zone has been reached. Okay so whats now?
Bullish scenario is possible here if the price will confidently break the 800$ level and will be fixed above for half of week at least.
BUT
Fundamentally, the market situation is bearish.
In general, this is due to political factors and the prospects for an increase of interest rates due to attempts of an inflation stop.
In the same US market, this is despite all the advantages of Tesla, unique technologies, a full production cycle and unique production capacities...but sorry p/e=405; forward p/e=108 these are clearly not the values that smart money will suit. Even Ark invest sold it partially.
Also there is too much competition in the electric car market to speak right now about the #tsla prospects in the 2-3 years future.
Now is not the best time to bet on the up exit from the 550 – 800 range, even if such an exit happens, potential for movement is $ 900. In such situation, the potential for upward movement is $ 100, the potential for downward movement is $ 300, so If we talk about mid-long term Investing, then it is not the best time to buy and hold, given the fact that there has been no significant correction in the market since March 2020.
An attempt to retest the $800 level is possible here or if the price will open with a gap down below $760-750 per share, its possible to consider the yellow levels to open a short position. Such levels can be also the closing or opening levels of trades of previous day.
TSLA MOTORS, INCTesla Bull Cathie Wood Says There's No Bubble, 2008-09 Debacle Has Put 'Fear' In Investors — And More Key Takeaways From Morningstar Appearance
The head of the New York-based Ark Investment Management was speaking virtually at the Morningstar Investment Conference and discussed high equity valuation of stocks such as Tesla with veteran investor Rob Arnott, founder and chairman at Research Affiliates.
Wood spoke at length on various issues ranging from how average electric vehicle prices are expected to fall dramatically to battery costs, falling traditional auto sales, how legacy automakers are far behind Tesla, and how investors have "become benchmark sensitive."
Wood’s investment firm sold some shares in Tesla earlier this month after the stock rallied. Ark Invest still counts the Elon Musk-led company as its largest holding.
1. On Electric Vehicle Prices: “Last year, we globally produced and sold roughly 2.2 million electric vehicles. Based on that, the cost decline in battery pack systems — the largest cost component of electric vehicles — we believe the average electric vehicle price will drop below that of the average gas power vehicle price in the next year or so.”
“It will continue to decline so that in the year 2025, the average Toyota Camry-like electric vehicle will be $18,000 while the regular Camy will still be roughly $25,000-$26,000.”
2. On Electric Vehicle Growth: “We believe the number of electric vehicles sold will scale from 2.2 million vehicles last year to 40 million which is almost half of the total car sales globally that we expect in 2025. That is a twenty-fold increase and an exponential growth to be sure, an 89% CAGR, simply based on the notion that these cars are going to become more affordable than gas-powered vehicles.”
3. On Automotive Inventories: "Many people think that the inventories out there are very lean in the auto sector, we don't think so. We think that inventories after a year of buying to avoid mass transit are parked in garages and driveways," Wood said. "And it's because gas power vehicle sales are falling apart.”
4. On Four Barriers To Entry Created By Tesla: "Tesla builds its cars on cylinder batteries while most others have based it on lithium-ion pouch batteries...which is roughly 15%-20% more expensive.”
“So, its battery cost will be lower as far as we can see. The second barrier to entry is the artificial intelligence chip that Tesla designed," where it said the Musk company has pulled a leaf out of Apple Inc's
“The other barrier to entry is the number of real-world miles driven that Tesla has collected,” Wood added. “The fourth barrier to entry is that Tesla is still the only car using the over the air software update to improve performance and prevent breakdowns.”
5. On Tesla’s EV Market Share: “There may be a lot of electric vehicle manufacturers out there but they are tiny. Tesla’s share is surprisingly high. We thought it would go down, at the end of 2018 it was roughly 17% of global sales, and instead, it went up. That has been a big surprise. That is a function of the four barriers of entries.”
6. On Legacy Automakers' Struggle: “In the early days of the battery...auto manufacturers and analysts laughed at Tesla for building its vehicles based on cell phone batteries that are blowing up in airplanes. Now we see General Motors Co GM +1.61%’s Bolt has had to recall most of the vehicles because its batteries are catching on fire. That was a concern 6-7 years ago and Tesla nailed that down and traditional automakers are having problems.”
6. On Legacy Automakers' Struggle: “In the early days of the battery...auto manufacturers and analysts laughed at Tesla for building its vehicles based on cell phone batteries that are blowing up in airplanes. Now we see General Motors Co GM +1.61%’s Bolt has had to recall most of the vehicles because its batteries are catching on fire. That was a concern 6-7 years ago and Tesla nailed that down and traditional automakers are having problems.”
TESLA. HOLD OR SELL?WHEN TO BUY?Hey!
My idea is bearish
Decision price level is 700$ or zone of 685-705$.
When the company could not pay its debts, it issued additional issues and paid off its debts in this way. So it was profitable to keep stock prices at high levels plus squeezing out short sellers. Now operating activities cover all costs, so the capitalization is not very important for the company's management. Now Tesla have a nice cash flow, low debt. The perspectives of growth here are high, but due to high P/E and P/S we should be ready for price correction.
I see 8 reasons for deep correction right now:
1. Historically, September is a bad month for the markets.
2. Right now, the correction phase begins, the depth of which will be at least 3800-4000 according to the S&P500 index.
3. A good and understandable potential for a price drop.
4. The serial production of the truck and pickup truck was postponed.
5. There will be poor sales reports due to a shortage of chips.
6. The systemic crisis in China (evergrande and Alibaba) may affect the purchasing potential in the future
7. Cash flow financing due to an additional issue no needs to make anymore.
8. Joe is sleeping.
And what if?
If S&P500 correction will be stopped this or next week than it will be possible to see the new high.
TSLA Short down to the 700.00 Level Overall I've been bullish on this stock however with the markets sentiments going bearish because of the news in China. I am looking at TSLA to hit the 700.00 level which lines up with a major QP zone. We could also see further bearish sentiment down to the 638.00 levels.
TSLA heavily shorted by Michael Burry!SCION ASSET MANAGEMENT, the hedge fund owned by Michael Burry - the man who bet against the housing market in 2008, if you are too young, you know him from "The Big Short", is now heavily betting against TSLA!
He owns puts on Tesla for 35% of his portfolio, with a market value of $731,017,000!
Besides the strong competition that TSLA has now in the EV sector, the U.S. National Transportation Safety Board would open an investigation into a fatal crash earlier this month involving a Tesla vehicle in Florida that led to the deaths of two people.
My first price target is 690, but it can drop even further, to 601usd.
TESLA - LOOKS READY FOR NEW BREAKDOWN TREND Hello trading friends,
Tesla looks depending on our new chart study depending on data and trends, that it's going to breakdown more into the trend.
This could start in the short term - and the short targets could go in the long term also.
✅THe TA analyses show that tesla is the high top point, and this could be the start of a new breakdown point as we did expect here above.
It looks to follow the effect of gold where we did update about it before.
Have a great day.
Lucid Group Long TradeBeen stalking this chart for 2 months waiting on my buy zone...and here it is! While a possible wick under our long-term support is possible my buy zone will still sit at $21.00. Our lines of support and resistance have been respected 100% of the time so far within this pattern, so I like the odds for this trade. In the event of a breakdown of this pattern, I will hold and wait for a recovery to the newly formed resistance at roughly $21.00. I expect both bullish and bearish scenarios to resolve between 1-2 weeks. This is not trading advice
$TSLA - @Stacking said run it to $800Old school technicals
Trendline break
SR flip
Little Range consolidation here
Expecting upside expansion
Only weakness with this setup is the H1 gap that has been left underneath this consolidation
Too have a higher R can keep stops above it expecting expansion soon
However, if the consolidation low gets deivated, fills that H1 gap, that should be a giga long!
See you at $800 Elon