Teslamotors
Tesla buy or sell? Bubble?Reasons to buy Tsla
Although electric cars occupy a small portion of the global automobile market, Tesla has acquired a large market share within this niche segment. Tesla has a little less then 1% marketshare worldwide which is impressive for a young car company like Tesla. Especially in the electric segment where it has 16% marketshare in 2019. The company has a strong performance adn the unique design helps the sales. For example the preorder of the Tesla Truck. Also the solar and storage deployments will probably witness significant growth aided by the positive reception of the Megapack and Powerwall products.
The delivery of Model 3 has risen significantly, which counts for a big part of the companies overall deliveries since it the best selling car of Tesla so far. Besides Model 3, Model Y is also improving Tesla’s prospects. The construction progress for Gigafactory 4 in Berlin and Gigafactory 5 in Austin are also underway, with production from both plants expected to start this year.
With China being the biggest EV market, Tesla’s ambitious production plans in the country bode well. Robust production of Model 3 from the new Gigafactory in Shanghai bode well for its future growth. The Shanghai factory is ramping up well and commands a higher market share in the Chinese EV market.
Over a multi-year horizon, Tesla anticipates achieving 50% average annual growth in vehicle deliveries. Meanwhile, low leverage of Tesla offers financial flexibility. Notably, its long-term debt-to-capital ratio stands at 0.31, lower than its industry's 0.54.
Historically, from 2016 to 2020 sales of TSLA increased in average of 45% from one year to another, with an estimate of 49% sales growth for 2021 and 33% for 2022.
The liquidity and Solvency of Tesla are both scoring good which means Tesla is able to pay of short term as long term obligations.
Reasons to sell Tesla inc
The company’s high R&D and SG&A costs do raise concerns. During the last reported quarter, R&D and SG&A costs were up both yearly and sequentially. Capex soared 138% year over year and is likely to increase this year as well, thereby affecting cash flow and margins.
Tesla's excessive reliance on credit sales remain a concern. In 2020, Tesla posted a net GAAP income of $721 million. Without the regulatory credit sales, the firm would have incurred a loss to the tune of $859 million.
Stretched valuation of Tesla is a concern. Going by the EV/EBITDA multiple, which is often used to value auto stocks, Tesla is currently trading at a trailing 12-month EV/EBITDA multiple of 187.9, considerably higher than the industry average of 52.41. The firm’s P/S ratio of 17.3 also compares unfavorably to the industry’s 3.05.
Tesla bubble?
Based on the future outlook of the industry and the company and considering all the discussion around TSLA bubble, it can be assessed which will be the fair value for the company at the moment. For this, the EPS reported for last quarter was taken and annualised which gives us 0,96$ per share. Based on recent developement and estimation, it is forecasted that Tesla will have an annual growth in earnings of 40% each year, first 5 years and 10% from year 6 to year 15.
For safety reason 15 years is the number of years we will calculate with as there is a reasonable time to recover an investment. The forecasted EPS after 15 years based on this growth is around 12,17$ per share. Multiplying these with a decent P/E ratio of 35, the fair price would be currently below 500$, while the real price is just under 800$.
Buy or not?
Although it is clear that the company is the market leader and may outperform without problem any other company from the industry for the never ending future, however, following value investing principles, the current price is out of real position and may lead to the fact that the stock is overvalued.
Thus, the stock may face a corrective action in the near future. However, it is a bit funny to observe that even in a period of instability and uncertainty and in this Covid-19 situation, where people use the cars a lot less, Tesla kept it's position, and even increased its position, without recording great losses.
This could mean that value trading as we know, may not be applicable anymore and the investors should adjust and adapt trading principles and behaviours accordingly.
If you are a value investor, like I am, then Tesla is not the right choice to invest in.
🚗 Tesla (TSLA) — batteries sat down, let's go to charge 🔋●● Mine scenario
● 1W
NASDAQ:TSLA
"Price charts are great for predicting ... the PAST," Peter Lynch once said. In addition, price charts of the past are a great tool for predicting the future with high accuracy, if, of course, you are familiar with the theory of Elliott waves. The exit up from the big triangle was expected even in October 2019 .
● 1D
NASDAQ:TSLA
Our previous targets of 820 level have been achieved. It is possible that the decline has already going in the wave (4) of ① in the area of the Minor degree wave 4 , in the range of 500-330 .
● 4h
NASDAQ:TSLA
Wave (3) has reached the key level of 161.8% of the wavelength (1) . Wave 5 of (3) of ① = 161.8% of 1 . The top of wave 4 divides the impulse (3) in the Fibonacci ratio.
● 45m
NASDAQ:TSLA
But. I haven't seen any good options yet to decompose the descending waves from the historical top into a series of One-two, one-two waves. Even the breakout of the 682 level, there will still be a probability of continuing the formation of ((v)) to the Ending Diagonal, as schematically demonstrated in black . In general, I consider the current decline as a local correction, but in the case of a downward formation in the form of an Leading Diagonal or impulse, at the end of the subsequent correction, I will open a sell trade with an eye on another descending five-wave as part of A of (4) .
●● Alternative scenario
● 1W
NASDAQ:TSLA
An alternative count of the senior degree.
The wave marking in the double circle parenthesis corresponds to the green marking in the circle on the chart.
Tesla - short idea. Start of corrections?Hi guys, I see the short idea on TSLA
𝙍𝙚𝙖𝙨𝙤𝙣𝙨:
📉 Now, the price is on support 196$ LVL, and looks like we are ready for a correction.
📉 Tesla reported Q4 FY 2020 adjusted EPS that missed analyst expectations by a wide margin.
📉 The price has gone too far from 200MA on Day chart.
Short 795$
SL 4-5%
TP1 716$
TP2 656$
Follow me for more ideas.
Thanks,
V.
$TSLA may see another 5% drop soonHello fellow traders. TSLA saw a drop of 12% from ATH the past three weeks. It looks weak here after being rejected twice at the 21ema. RSI moved below 50, and MACD is approaching the 0 level quite fast. Additionally, ADX crossed below 20 and -DI crossed above +DI. Momentum is not in favor of TSLA for sure. Another bearish sign is that the 14ema is about to cross below the 21ema. if that happens, we could see some more downside. Unless bulls step in soon I think a retest of the 50ema is very possible. That would send the price down about 5% or roughly $750. However, TSLA still has to break below that support, which has held the price twice already, and the 0 fib retracement level.
On the positive side, OBV is still rising--albeit slightly--so traders are buying at these levels even though the price is bouncing up and down. I have accumulated a decent amount of shares but if/when we retest the 50ema I will be ready to load up even more because I believe the price will bounce nicely from there.
Good luck and safe trades!
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***The ideas shared here are my opinion, not financial advise to place trades. Please do your own research before buying/selling stocks***
TSLA Tesla WOW an impressive bullish structure.
Resistors and Supports are availableç
what do you think of tesla?
And what do you think about Tesla buying bitcoin and accepting payments with the cryptocurrency, crypto is the future!
Let me know in the comments----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Adjust your Stops for high volatility. And constantly follow news, information... Good Investment.
Sincerely L.E.D.
In Spain at 16/02/2021
tesla Hi there
i love to analysis stocks. i see price bounce 803 level.at this time price came same level and create a M formation. as we know when market create a M formation or over extended M formation then price go up his neckline. and its perfectly lining with fibo 61 level. so i am see a pull back bounce area from 803 and next price level is 840-845 . next is next happy trading
$TSLA in accumulation againHello fellow traders and dear padawans. As we can see from the chart, after the March 2020 crash TSLA has been trading on a clear pattern of accumulation followed by steep rallies. It looks like we are in another accumulation ranging between $790 and $900. Although volume has been decreasing that OBV keeps going up like a rocket, which gives me confidence there will not be a big correction (given the market as a whole doesn't go through correction). RSI is holding above the 50 level but not on overbought zone, which is what we want to see. The MACD has been on a steady rise since the crash. It is now taking a breather from that long run. Last time it happened was on the previous accumulation on the $600s. Also, after that dip last week the price moved above the 21 and 14 emas. Today it found support on the 14ema and moved back up, which is a good sign.
I bought a fair amount of shares when the price dipped to $795. I am still accumulating at these levels, specially when the price falls and responds to a fib level or ema on the daily or intraday timeframes. Along with APPN Tesla is by far the most profitable stock in my portfolio, and one of the most profitable that I trade so I keep buying on every dip and repeating the same process.
4hr chart
Safe trades!
Show your love:
If you get anything out of this TA, please hit the like button so other can find this analysis quicker.
Follow for more:
If you want the best entry/exits just follow me, you won't regret. Thanks a lot!
***The ideas shared here are my opinion, not financial advise to place trades. Please do your own research before buying/selling stocks***
TESLA ! ROCKET OR SUBMARINE ?! TESLA! Rocket or submarine. We must recognize that the evolution of the company last year, ignited a lot of imagination, and a lot of minds. Many fortunes were made and many were lost, in unnecessary shorts. Whether it was raining or windy, Tesla took off. The question is what's next ?! Well technically everything looks crystal clear, just news like today's about the stimulus, can shake the price for a few minutes more. But fundamental !? Well, it has 5 consecutive quarters on profit, ending the pandemic year with a 37% yoy increase in deliveries. And this in the year of the pandemic, I repeat, when we all stayed at home. Analysts see good reporting on Wednesday, and have a price target of $ 933. And basically the company looks good. But what we do to gentlemen is that everything that grows must decrease, that's how we know. Well, we'll see on Wednesday after closing. The thing is simple: it will be either a rocket or a submarine, but both nuclear, no doubt :)
Trading overextension of TSLA: Breakdown distribution channel 🧸Hi guys, here is my setup for shorting NASDAQ:TSLA for next week.
As you can see NASDAQ:TSLA formed distribution channel where is traded several days.After inside bar at 19.1.2021 (on daily chart) bears defended level 861. Today, it seem there is the brakdown of distribution channel and beggining of markdown phase.
There is data for my swingtrade:
------------------------Trade setup ---------------------------
Entry: 831.70
Stop Loss: 846
Profit target: 762
Time stop: 5 days
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TSLA Updated triangle - New OpportunitiesHey guys, the last triangle TSLA pulled, gave us a potential 2% unleveraged profit.(See related idea below) If you're short, this newly formed triangle could mean you should be careful. Taking into account the bad news of the callback for 158.000 Teslas, Michael Burry's mega short and on the other hand the relentless hype-fueled run to the upside, this is yet another great opportunity to get in wether you're a doubter or believer. If the triangle breaks decisively to the upside, thats where we go next. If the breakdown continues we should watch the lower channel to take some profit. As always with triangles, watchout for fakeouts , set your stops tight and prefer to re-enter your position over holding on to a loser- this next move could get big.
No financial advice, just my personal opinion.