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TESLA MULTI-FACTOR PREMIUM ANALYSIS+My Personal Story w/Trading TESLA(TSLA) Ahead of Q3 2019 Earnings and the Medium-term: Series on Equities #3 (12-15 Minutes read) Just as an intro, fyi this is probably one of the most complex and well-detailed charts that I've done so far. The chart is based on a multi-factor Tesla decision tree . I know that at first sight it looks very chaotic, but I'll try to explain it as orderly as I can. Have to say that, the chart symmetry is well fitting to an exceptionally great extend. Naturally, if it takes me some time to analyse a chart to such extreme details(3 days), it will take you some time to understand it too. This analysis combines several approaches that will be analysed in three time horizons : long,medium and short-term . The multi-factor approach includes fundamental(idiosyncratic to Tesla), macroeconomic, geopolitical and technical(trend) factors. It excludes quantitative analysis , although from the decision tree drawn below, a quantitative model can be constructed. Even though my current recommendation is short, I believe that Musk in the long run, is capable enough to establish the company as one of the leading global auto manufacturers. At the end of this analysis, there will be the second part of this post, that is about my personal experience so far with charting and trading. _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Starting off with the idiosyncratic fundamental factor side combined with the macroeconomic and geopolitical risks . There are four major Tesla fundamental factors that I am looking at: net income, profit margins, deliveries and cash flows . Typically, I'd use a comparables approach , but since Tesla is still in their growth phase with highly volatile numbers , I think this would only make the analysis more confusing and won't add any value. So, how are Teslas' numbers doing ? Obviously, not that well. Their operating margin is only 0.57% . Gross margin is doing much better (17.86%), which gives me some hope that Tesla could massively benefit from improving their vertical supply chain( Reference #3 ). Ultimately, having low margins, directly impacts their net income, and if this is combined with their recent acquisitions and Chinese expansion, that adds up to Tesla's cash burning outflows. Their recent debt and SEO issuance( Reference #1 ), adds further bullish doubts. The main issue is- how is Tesla going to cover their debt obligations(even at these low rates) with non-existent margins? They will most likely have to keep adding debt/issue even more equity . Currently as it stands, the fundamentals are simply not working out. Despite the relatively well recent delivery numbers, this negative shift in investor sentiment was reflected in the latest price drop to 176 . This brings me to the Tesla decision tree diagram, that combines all of the factor approaches. (Simplified Decision tree|The states aren't mutually exclusive(Ex. If the economy is good, chances are higher that Trump gets 2020)|On the left side Tesla's stock performance is compared to some of the top global auto manufacturers) In my previous posts, I have thoroughly analysed most of the geopolitical and macroeconomic factors( linked in "Related ideas" ), so I will just elaborate on how they apply to Tesla. Essentially, even if Tesla has a good start in China and their recent acquisitions work out( Reference #2 ), the risk of a prolonged trade war, could affect their business in China and if this is combined with the ongoing economic slowdown, it heavily skews the risk-reward to the short side. All of the risk-reward diagram states are labelled on the chart. The darker the shade, the more probable the outcome . Before I get into the technicals, a brief summary of the Tesla's time horizons linked to the decision tree. Short-Term : Quite a lot of uncertainty. Depending on the trade war outcome and Brexit, in the worst case outcome, we could have a recession by the 2020 US pres. elections. One of the systemic issues that will add up to the negative investor sentiment, is the rising proportion of unprofitable IPO's that are just thrown at investors( Ref #4) . What's already falling, in a recession, might as well crash . This systematic factor, applies to Tesla's profitability issues too. Relevant VIX idea on volatility and uncertainty. Medium-Term: If the economy survives until 2020, depending on who wins the election, we will have different outcomes. If Trump wins, the cycle could extend for another year. If any of the Democrats win, and as it looks it will most likely be E.Warren(Reference #6), we will have an economic contraction much sooner. Eventually, we will have a recession by 2022-23. Even if Trump wins 2020, his self-destructive nature will get him impeached, adding up even more uncertainty. Discussing FED rate cycles and supercycles. Long-Term: Assuming Tesla doesn't go bust or turns private and survives the next economic downturn, it'll be a good stock to have in a portfolio. Musk has about 10-12 more great years to lead the company. The market for biofuels and clean energy without a doubt will continue to expand. However, by then it seems that most large western OECD cities might ban cars all together, meaning that Teslas' strategic expansion into developing Asia will have a very positive payoff in the future. Wrapping up the analysis with the technical side . The chart above ties up several carefully chosen tools and indicators such as: Elliott waves, Ichimoku cloud, (E)M averages, pitchfork band lines, fib. supports, cycles and obviously many channel trendlines . So, what are the technicals implying ? Currently, the long-term trend in Tesla is neutral, within the ichimoku cloud. After the double-combo WXY wave, there seems to be a tendency towards an ABC or ABCDE contraction . In case Tesla break off above 365 (which is extremely unlikely), I would trade Tesla based on the drawn pitchfork that fits the current chart pattern extremely well. In the comments below, I will elaborate some more on the symmetrical shapes. That's it for Tesla, there are many other factors that could be analysed, but I tried to keep it as short and precise as possible. If you have any question, feel free to send me a private message. Now, for the second part of the analysis. _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ My personal experience so far in Charting & Trading I got into trading at the start of the crypto bearish market, the very end of 2017. It was a way to divert my college anxiety and work on something complex that took my mind off boring academia. Even now I find it very relaxing in a weird way, while I am drawing charts(hope I am not the only one). I am glad that I made a tradingview profile right away, so now I can look back and laugh at my sh*t posts about bitcoin and other altcoins. On a serious note, from those same old posts until now, I can look back and see how far I've developed my charting skills and trading mindset. All these charts and assets that I post about, serve as my notes and in a way reflect the spirit of the time(ex. 2018 sell-off). This post about Tesla gave my a sort of a conscious realization about my personal development, and this is why I am writing about my personal experience. So far, in less than two years of being involved in charting and trading, I've came to a conclusion on few things. Firstly and obviously, trading is not easy . It's not a job, it's a lifestyle. Just as most athletes have to constantly keep their bodies in shape, a trader has to always stay sharp and attentive . Most importantly, what speed up my development was my open mindedness. Any outcome is possible- never be fooled by randomness. Part of having an open mindset, is working on your personal biases . I highly recommend taking time off trading every month to reflect on your development. Realize what for is the market following such a pattern and not why you're making the trade. Do not confuse your biases, with your intuition . Most of the time, your biases do not allow you to make a precise conscious conclusion of your intuitional drives. One of the things that elevated my charting development was adding a behavioural finance and philosophical approach . This happened last summer. If you compare the dates on my latest charts, you'd clearly see the difference. I've taken some time off trading the last couple of months, in order to fully develop my macro ideas and this has payed off remarkably well. These would be some of my tips for anyone that wants to get involved with trading, and if you're already a long term trader I'd appreciate if you commented about some of your own best trading recommendations. How do I draw my charts and what I am currently working on? All of my recent charts are drawn naturally. I take a complete freedom and time to draw every pattern and allow for it to form and fit naturally. No pattern should be forced, just because you want the chart to turn out the way you want it to. Obviously, everyone has biases and that's why technical analysis is as subjective as it is. My latest focus has been long term. Initially when I started trading it started off with day trading on 1-30 minute charts, and you can guess the result. It's pointless to try to beat HFT algorithms or compete with them. All experienced traders start of from a macro (large time frame) approach. Additionally, it's much less stressful to reposition your portfolio every now and then when more fundamental information becomes available, compared to getting blindsided and extreme stressed while day trading. Here, I have to say that I admire the few day traders that have stayed afloat and are profitable. Takes some guts and plenty of sacrifice to perpetually live that intense lifestyle. To conclude this boring text that's an outcome of my boredom while being sick the last couple of days, I am proud of my work. Without a doubt, I've reached a decent level of understanding in trend and multi-factor fundamental analysis. Of course, there's more things to improve on, and there'll always be. What I am currently looking to learn and improve on, is about programming and writing scripts. If you have any tips or ideas on how to get started in trading related programming, please message me right away . Even if it's not programming related, but charting related topic or an idea, I'd be happy to answer whenever I am available. Thanks for taking the time to read thorough. This was my short text about trading and charting. Hope that my insight is at least somewhat thought provoking and useful. All the feedback is very welcomed! -Step_ahead_ofthemarket- ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ References on the Tesla analysis: 1. www.nytimes.com (Corporate Structure & Financing) 2. www.youtube.com Explaining Tesla's latest investment strategies(acquisition, china expansion) 3. imgbb.com (Tesla's vertical supply chain) 4. ibb.co (IPO's Earnings trends since the 90's) 5. imgbb.com (Momentum versus Value strategy chart, sorry about the poor quality) 6. www.realclearpolitics.com _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ >>I do not share my ideas for the likes or the views. This channel is only dedicated to well informed research and other noteworthy and interesting market stories.>> However, if you'd like to support me and get informed in the greatest of details, every thumbs up and follow is greatly appreciated! Full Disclosure : This is just an opinion, you decide what to do with your own money. For any further references or use of my content for private or corporate purposes- contact me through any of my social media channels.
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by step_ahead_ofthemarket
Solar Energy Systems of Tesla Caused a SueWalmart sued Tesla on Tuesday for its solar energy panels. In addition to that, the retail corporation accused the firm of widespread negligence, which resulted in repeated fires of its solar systems. The company also ask the court to order Tesla to get rid of its solar panels from over 240 of its U.S. stores. Moreover, the electric car maker installed these solar energy systems, and, of course, the firm is responsible for fires at seven locations. Aside from that, there were dozens of it with hazardous issues like loose wiring and hot spots on panels. But as on now, Tesla did not give any comment regarding this matter. In the lawsuit, it accused the firm of having workers who lack training. And they are the one putting up shoddy installations, which displays utter incompetence of callousness, according to the court papers. Solar Business of Tesla Meanwhile, Tesla got its solar energy systems through its $2.6 billion purchase of SolarCity back in 2016. And the lawsuit became the latest blow to the firm’s already struggling business. Since the deal, quarterly installations collapse over 85%. And this happened after Tesla chopped its solar panel sales force and ended a distribution deal with Home Depot. Furthermore, in the lawsuit of Walmart, it stated the fires damaged significant amounts of store merchandise and needed solid repairs. As a result, the firm lost millions of dollars. Tesla Shares Despite Tesla’s self-inflicted wounds and dropping shares around 32% in 2019, billionaire investor Ron Baron stayed bullish on the company and CEO Elon Musk. And the reason for his consistent support is the ongoing expansion of the electric carmaker firm in China. Aside from that, its revenue growth and improvements in all-electric vehicle technologies are also part of his reasons to keep holding to the firm. After opening at $227.62 per share, Tesla stock was relatively firm Tuesday morning.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by Financebroker
1
TSLA - RSI is a pretty useful indicatorWith TSLA, backtesting the overbought and oversold signals of the RSI (especially the 80/20) shows it's been pretty reliable in providing buy and sell signals over a longish timeframe. Trading using the RSI alone is generally thought of as being a bad strategy, but with a couple of confluent signals it could be pretty useful here. Some stocks seem to favour the RSI more than others. We could also see some divergence (which I need more time to learn properly!) I'm learning Technical Analysis and how to trade generally, but this one seems like a strong signal to watch for this stock. Of course these types of signals would probably work much better while the stock market is generally strong. I'm always open to education, criticism or ideas!
NASDAQ:TSLA
by optimystery
Tesla! 420 next year?Hi guys, Tesla just came down to long term support and held, and then came up and reject resistance so it looks as if we are in the same range as from 14-16. We are currently sitting in the middle of the range, I believe that the next big break will set the trend for the next 6-12 months. Fundamentals: For Tesla to succeed and see enormous growth they need to achieve full self-driving, I think they are still a few years away. The second thing is battery production and having access to the largest EV market which is China. This is coming with the gigafactory being built this year. Overall I am bullish on innovation so I'm bullish on Tesla, this doesn't mean we can't lose support and test lower :).
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by MaxxCharts
3
Tesla's undereastimated weaponFundamental: Many investors are overlooking an important aspect of tesla: The new Tesla Roadster(0-60mph in 1.9 seconds)(620 mi eletric range), which will be realeased approximately in the first quarter of 2020, creates a auspicious offer for every adrenalin junkie that isn't content with the 4.8 seconds from 0-60mph from a Porsche 911 Carrera. Of course we have to look for the rising procurement costs of teslas battery recourses (cobalt,lithium,nickel,graphite). If those are getting to high tesla could have a slight monetary problem. I think the demand of the Tesla Roadster is able to compensate their procurement costs. Technical(see update) --> If the market is able to stay above the support line of 180$ (Of course the USA-China-trade dispute has to find a end), Musk got one more chance for his really strong Brand-value to remain.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by Christian-Georgi
TSLA bounced as expected, next? Tesla updated Support ResistanceUpdate to previous analysis looking for a bounce then leg down (click) . Tesla bounced as expected, helped by an overall market bounce. The market bounce was also expected, per this S&P500 plot (click) . Dead Cat bounce or true Reversal is unclear for the overall market. Many analysts on the news are calling for doom and gloom for Tesla. So nothing new there, ''talking heads" have been saying that forever. But clearly we have a major downturn in sentiment towards this stock. The downward velocity has been increasing (accelerating). The last wave is probably not done yet, a lower low is likely. Looking for a "blow off" spike below supports on high volume. 193-195 is immediate resistance but should be surpassed. 203-205 is mostly likely bounce target, then a leg down. 253-256 is MAJOR resistance, I am selling there for sure. 174-178 is immediate support but will not hold another hit. 139-143 will be strong support perhaps after $150 stop hunt. 123-126 is MAJOR support that if approached is a big buy. . See some of my other plots and trade calls below. I also plot Forex and Crypto, take a look at my profile page . SPX bounce SPX top Oct 2018 FaceBook bounce Twitter bounce NetFlix bounce Amazon scalp Gold long Silver long Oil long Of course, I have had total FAILS on some ideas too, not going to pretend. But all of my plots show PRECISE entries, TIGHT stops, and EXACT targets. Precision is the way of the Fib. Almost every turn happens at a Fib Line.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by EuroMotif
CNBC and Morgan Stanley are idiots. TSLA is a buy.This is a fractal analysis of THE most undervalued and hated upon and shorted upon Tech stock of our generation. The constant barrage of anti Tesla FUD has gotten to such an extreme level that me and my wife had to make a friggin youtube video about it on our quite small youtube channel: youtu.be This analysis is quite simple, based on a fractal idea, and in early 2016 we had the same situation as now. The chart situation looked very similar. Back then, the stock also fell by a factor of 2 over months, reaching brutal lows in early 2016.# The same people were responsible: CNBC, Chanos, Morgan Stanley et al. Very very similar situation back then. And we all knew what happened afterwards. People shorting Tesla are like People who in the early 20th century said: THIS AUTOMOBILE WILL NEVER TAKE HOLD. I'LL PREFER MY HORSE ANY DAY! Or people who back in the 90s said: BAAAAHHH...I WILL NEVER USE THIS STUPID INTERNET THING!! Or people who now also say: BITCOIN IS A FRAUD, IT WILL NEVER SEE MAINSTREAM ADOPTION. People who don't understand what a paradigm shift is occuring now in the automotive sector, the transition from ICE cars, to electric cars, need to wake up. Shorting this stock at these levels here is madness. But, it is a perfect opportunity to get in cheap for a nice long position. CNBC and their vassals Chanos and Morgan Stanley, want to manipulate this market, because they get money from Big Oil and the old, dying, Legacy carmakers. The ICE car is dying, and they are desperate. Sales of traditional cars stay constant at best, but tend more to the downside. Whereas electric vehicle sales x10 folded worldwide from 2013 to 2018. They continue to do the logistics- S curve, and are growing exponentially. And so is Tesla. Demand for the Model 3 is huge, and the Shanghai Gigafactory 3 will soon go online. They have consistently sold x2 more cars every year than in the previous year. 2019 will be the same. A cheap model 3 produced in China, flooding the market. Production margin will increase even more. Would you have shorted the Automotbile in 1900? Or the Locomotive in 1830? Would you have shorted the Television in 1950? Or the PC in 1980? Then why short Tesla? WHY SHORT INNOVATION? It doesn't make sense. And CNBC and Morgan Stanley are idiots and manipulators. This was my anti Tesla FUDsters and Shorters rant. Enough now ! CIAO !
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by SebastianofMoon
17
Tesla: Long term buy opportunity.TSLA has made contact with the long term 1M Higher Low supporting trend line, which has provided strong rebound points since Nov 2013. This is the most optimal long term buy opportunity as 1W is approaching the oversold zone (RSI = 32.837). We are long on Tesla targeting 265 before the end of the year and 360 - 380 on a two year horizon. ** If you like our free content follow our profile (www.tradingview.com) to get more daily ideas. ** Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by InvestingScope
4