Tesla can't catch a break (light?)! My thoughts on Week of 2/6Just when we thought TSLA was headed for a rebound, we were caught in a series of news that wasn't too hot for our favorite automaker: Everything from brake light recalls to billion dollar compensations rejected. In this Idea, I will detail my thoughts of the week, news that affected the stock, and my analysis for next week.
1/29 LAST WEEK:
The graph shows we've been on a downward channel for TSLA price action. Our purple line within the channel was our expectation from prior to last week (From Idea: ).
What I was not expecting was a continuous downtrend after Wednesday. Affecting news for this downtrend were:
Fed rate decision (priced in), and ruled out March rate cut.
Musk and $55 billion pay package
Possible relocation to another state because of above
Tesla dropped from "Magnificent Seven"
At a point on Friday, TSLA completely decoupled from SPY price action: While SPY was up 1% hitting another record high, TSLA was punished at -3%, until making a quick recovery to the top of the channel at the 0.5 fib mark at $187.90.
2/6 and on:
News, fed meetings, and price action/options flow lead me to believe we will have another choppy week.
2.2 Million vehicle recall on warning lights that are too small. (Doesn't seem like a big deal, but the word "recall" scares investors. )
Over 2400 Steering Complaints Escalated to investigation. (Yahoo Finance)
Tesla settles $1.5 million CA hazardous waste lawsuit (Yahoo Finance)
I also think that the Tesla relocation to Texas would be bearish due to the amount of work and opportunity cost associated to relocating.
With the laundry list of bad news, I don't think we will break for lower lows this week. I think we may have a sharp dip early in the week to the 0.236 fib line of $184. Throughout the week, we have several traditionally hawkish fed members speaking. Investors on the other hand seem poised with a bullish sentiment:
Options expiring 2/6 (per Barchart)
Put/Call Volume Ratio: 0.79
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio: 0.69
With the average call strike price sitting around $192, average put price sitting around $181.
The orange line shows my prediction to the price action based off all the above: An early dip (potential retest to $180), followed by breaking the channel sometime middle of the week, chopping through the rest of the week and ending on a higher note.
I will update with any news that I think may be relevant to TSLA.
Teslanews
Massive Recovery 1/29 and thoughts for TSLA through WeekA huge surprise with a massive recovery today, ending the day with a cup-handle formation, and there is plenty of upside left for TSLA. We may even potentially close up the gap to $208; but I believe it is dependent on a few factors. Here are my thoughts on price action for TSLA this week:
Possibility #1: Run up to 0.5 Fib level $195.41 Tuesday. (Orange arrow)
With major earnings coming (such as MSFT/GOOG on Tuesday) I expect the entire market to go up in anticipation to positive earnings. Since TSLA just bounced off a major support of $180, TSLA is a candidate to move faster than the market (such as today with a 4.3% run vs the S&P500 under 1%.)
We may also have a run up compounded with an anticipation to positive news from Wednesday's FOMC meeting (buy the rumor sell the news.) If given positive news (anything not already priced in) we may even have a run up to closing the gap at $208 later in the week.
Possibility #2: Choppy trading through Tuesday until FOMC (purple line) for the following reasons:
Per Yahoo Finance: "Markets see rates unchanged in January and Predict 48% probability of a rate cut at the next meeting in March." If some expectation is priced in, we may have a low volume day until further confirmation.
Since we just hit ATH on S&P500, investors may be more reluctant in trading and we go side ways until the FOMC meeting. If nothing major comes from the FOMC meeting, we may have continued sideways trading for the rest of the week, bouncing off $188.
I believe possibility 2 is a bit more likely, but not much more than possibility 1. Coming off a recent ATH on S&P500 we may see a retracement overall tomorrow, but options flow on TSLA indicate to me that we are bullish for the week. There is a strong possibility that the market has already priced in rate cuts, so this may lead to a sell the news scenario (we may bounce down to $185-$190 before moving to the next level.)
As of writing, options expiring 1/30 on SPY put/call volume ratio sits at 1.18, open interest ratio at 1.47. (Figures from Barchart)
TSLA options expiring 2/2 have volume put/call ratios at 0.87, open interest ratio at 0.74. (Figures from Barchart)
S&P Futures at -0.025% in the PM. 1/29.
In the news:
First Neuralink chip has been implanted for the first time. (This may bring positive views on Elon and by proxy to TSLA.)
Capital Expenditure of Tesla may decrease from $10 Billion from current fiscal year to $8-10 Billion by fiscal 2025 and 2026 (per Yahoo Finance.)
Two Tesla executives to sell stock, up to 281,116 and 115,500 respective shares (per Yahoo Finance.)
Lastly, my own plan: I may or may not take a position depending how we open in the AM. From the graph, the lines you see to the left of the cup-handle were my previous possibilities I set up from last week. Friday, I was expecting TSLA to retest it's lows and I took some put positions through the weekend. (See ) Sold them immediately in the AM today when a strong bull signal was built, and went calls on SPY (should have gone calls on TSLA instead with that massive recovery, but hindsight is 20/20) I don't plan on holding anything through FOMC for personal risk tolerance reasons. I am a bit reluctant because TSLA has the potential to swing hard, so I may have relatively small positions. This week will be crucial for knowing if we will try for breaking through the upper channel at $240 in the medium to long term (see: ) -OR- we bounce back down to $180.
Those are all my thoughts, I'll update this if I see any interesting news that I find relevant to TSLA this week.