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MACRO VIEW: XLV LOOKING GOOD, TESTING 5-YEAR UPTRENDHealth Care SPDR ETF is looking good on long term basis, testing its 5-year uptrend On long term basis - XLV is trading firmly in 10 year uptrend (above 1st upper standard deviation from 10-year mean), but due to the recent August selloff the price is now testing its 5-year uptrend. If the price holds above the fist upper standard deviation from 5-year mean, the test will be passed, and the price will likely trend upwards from there. On short term basis - XLF shows no particular trend, it is trading within 1st standard deviations from both 1-year and quarterly means. It is a positive moment, as nothing on the short term stands in the way of long term trends.
AMEX:XLVLong
by Killy_Mel
DOW JONES OVERVIEW: TRAVELERS IN FIRM 10-YEAR UPTRENDTravelers is the second best looking stock in our Dow Jones Overviews so far (after Nike) On long term basis it is trading firmly above 10-year uptrend border - 1st standard deviation from 10-year mean (at 87.75) - and did not even tag it during the August market-wide sell-off Price is also currently testing the 5-year uptrend, trading close to its border - the 1st standard deviation from 5-year mean (at 100.25) On short term perspective nothing stops the price from trending upwards - as it is showing no trends here (trading within 1-st standard deviations from 1-year and quarterly means)
NYSE:TRVLong
by Killy_Mel
DOW JONES OVERVIEW: JPM TESTING MACRO UPTRENDSJPMorgan is testing its macro uptrend, after successfully testing its 10-year uptrend, currently price tires to reestablish its 5-year uptrend. Recently price has bounced up from the 10-year uptrend border, marked by 1st standard deviation from 10-year mean (at 57) Currently price is trading around its 5-year uptrend border, marked by upper 1st st deviation from 5-year mean (at 62) The tests are aligned with short term risk. Failure below 10-year uptrend border will initiate also a downtrend on 1-year basis (price falling below 1st standard deviation from 1-year (264-day) mean), while failure below 5-year uptrend border indicates a downtrend on quarterly basis (price below 1st standard deviation from quarterly (66-day) mean) - which is happening now...
NYSE:JPMLong
by Killy_Mel
MACRO VIEW: USDRUB IS TESTING ITS UPTREND!Following WTI OIL downtrend failure last Friday, USDRUB tagging its relevant uptrend border first time since it started its descend back in July, marked by lower 1st standard deviation from quarterly (66-day) mean (@65). If the price manages to break below the border, chances are the uptrend is over (or at least current leg of it). Full stop of the uptrend, however, can only be declared when the price trades above the quarterly mean (@59).
Short
by Killy_Mel
Divergence, again, on USD/CADAlthough in a healthy uptrend, USDCAD has run into resistance at ~1.3070 which happens to be a price level on the weekly chart that has previously been tested (as support in April 2004 and resistance in March 2009). Price closed below this level on Friday as a high test bar. Coupled with bearish divergence on the Stochastic and RSI indicator a price action behaviour is suggestive of bearish sentiment. Judging by the optimistic Fed outlook to raise interest rates, and positive expectation from the US economy from improving economic data, a stronger US Dollar is likely to continue. The following short setup banks on a technical perspective to take advantage of a sell signal; potentially a temporary run. entry - below low of high test bar stop loss - above high of high test bar target - previous level at ~1.2771
Short
by amanpaulbhogal
CLF - Falling to a trendline support, then reversalCLF was in a long term strong bear channel that broke out to the upside on a climax in late July and is now in the process of pulling back to retest the trendline. The test will come at around 14.50. A couple of trendlines support that price and the bear channel will fall right into it. There is such strong selling that I think the best the bulls will get after the test is a broad trading range (between 16.50 and 14.50). 14.50 is a good buy zone once we see a nice bar/ candlestick reversal
NYSE:CLF
by mbrennan
BAC Update - Don't short yet!Last night I had posted a BAC channel that may be testing resistance. However, this chart has more accurate resistance levels and indicates a move higher. There are 4 possibilities, 3 of which are very close to one another at around 16.50. The one closer to 17 may work (3 touches) but there is no valid parallel support. The red line was my previous resistance expectation, but this may fail this week. The problem was that I used the July 3 close instead of the high. My guess is a small trading range near one of these price levels followed by a weak sell off to a support. No position, wait for signal.
NYSE:BAC
by mbrennan
BAC Testing Channel Resistance - Exhausted? Or First Leg of B/O?A longer term channel (darker blue) as well as the shorter term channel are both being tested at the very strong resistance. Also, there is a strong horizontal price magnet at 16.20, probably will hold. Obviously we saw on Thursday the very strong bull spike. Price action would probably say this is an exhausted bull. However, we may also get a short term trading range (barb wire?) and then it could bounce off the 16.20 level to the upside, in which case we'd have a bull b/o with a probable sell off around 16.50 (TR) and 18 (swing high). I would sell a close 1 tick below Friday's low (16.05), but a lot of traders may decide to short once it breaks 16. We'll just have to wait UPDATE 8-26: Doji top at a resistance slightly above the one drawn. Also, the resistance is at about a 61.8 level and approaching the pitchfork median line
NYSE:BACShort
by mbrennan