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Tezos

#Tezos Dumps 35% in 3 Months, Could Slide to H1 Lows of $1.20Past Performance of Tezos Tezos is down 35 percent from August 2022 highs and remains under pressure. The daily chart shows XTZ prices are printing lower lows, capped within the middle BB, and retesting $1.33. Technically, price action favors sellers in the short term. There could be more liquidation if bears force prices below July 2022 lows. #Tezos Technical Analysis Tezos hasn't been spared the uncertainty and drawdown in the broader crypto and financial markets. Overall, the coin is within a bearish trend, below the middle BB, a dynamic resistance level, and $1.46 is a critical liquidation level. XTZ might recover, especially if buyers soak in the deluge of selling pressure. The October 13 bull bar defines the short-term trend. Bears will be in control until there is a confirmation above the middle BB and $1.46. A close above $1.46 may see XTZ rise to September 2022 highs at $1.70. Losses below $1.33 may force XTZ to 2022 lows at $1.20. What to Expect from #XTZ? Sellers have the upper hand, but the tide could change if there are above October 13 highs and the middle BB. Preferably, a spike in trading volumes, exceeding this week's average, might reinvigorate buyers, pushing them to new October highs. Resistance level to watch out for: $1.46 Support level to watch out for: $1.33 Disclaimer: Opinions expressed are not investment advice. Do your research.
Short
by Bitcoin_Analyzer
The End of the Deflationary Asset EraDeflationary assets - aka artificial scarcity - is a product of the mediocre mind. Exponential growth and real social progress comes from the idea of "growing the pie". It's weird how people don't use that phrase anymore since it has become such a foreign concept at this point. Bitcoin  (and now Ethereum), NFTs, real-estate (both IRL and the metaverse), healthcare, education, and the economy as a whole has succumbed to the "scarcity mindset" and is in danger of collapsing on itself since it doesn't know how to grow its ecosystem from its base. Those mythical 100000x returns doesn't come from flipping or nickle-and-diming individuals but from growing the ecosystem as a whole. To keep the good times going, the response should be to increase capacity, not try to ration out your existing stock. Ethereum was particularly disappointing to watch this year because they had the capability to be so much more but chose the mediocre path when they started burning their own supply. Like Bitcoin, they put an expiration date on themselves and can now only expect modest returns from here on out. To be fair, "growing the pie" is very difficult and requires a higher degree of creativity and ability to spot new win-win scenarios from seemingly thin air. But that's why we have geniuses and entrepreneurs to fill that role that typical biz-dev types are unable to do. As the scarcity economies continues to do what it does - shrink - it's unfortunately going to take innocent bystanders with them. We're going to find that most of our tax dollars have been working to keep the illusion of sustainability rather than of real growth. But the silver lining is that as the status quo continues to implode on itself, the opportunity to grow the pie once again becomes possible. It's a cycle that has happened before and will happen again. With that, it's at least possible to navigate through the chaos. Good luck, folks. 🤞
BITFINEX:XTZUSDLong
by RyanTanaka
Too Good To Be True? Staking Rewards and the RecessionAs some analysts have predicted, the public's interest in crypto/Web3 projects have shifted from proof-of-work over to proof-of-stake, following Ethereum's "merge" a few weeks ago. ATOM and ALGO in particular did very well this week (though it did level off eventually) as what seems to be a partial migration of crypto money flowing from one area to the next. The pattern is just starting now so time will tell if it's a trend or a blip, but as we head further into a global recession, the idea of people "abandoning" stocks and other traditional fiat assets becomes more a possibility over time. We can look at some of the predictions being made right now in the industry, and its pros and cons. 1. Crypto Will Go Down With Fiat Given that crypto and the stock market have traditionally moved in parallel for the most part, it will continue to do the same during the downturn. This assumes that the low-interest rates of 2008+ onwards was also fueling the crypto hype and will follow the same pattern of prices plunging as cheap borrowing falls to the wayside. While there's certainly a case there, this assumes that the economy will behave "as normal" during the next downturn - which may bring a different type of risk to the table. 2. Money Will Flow into Bitcoin/Ethereum This is the main mantra of the "maxis" out there - they assume that people will lose faith in fiat as a whole, and convert their stocks/cash into a "reliable deflationary asset" like Bitcoin or (now) Ethereum. Deflationary assets - while some will call "ponzi-like" in its modeling - do objectively favor existing holders over newer ones, and can often cause problems with onboarding and long-term growth since it makes it more difficult for new money to come in. Given the two projects massive media/marketing presence last year, are there any more people out there to onboard? Probably not - but they are holding out for the idea that they will be proven right, one day. 3. Money Will Flow into "Cash-Like" Assets Like Dogecoin Traditional financial wisdom says that during recessions, "cash is king" - and we have seen some indication that money is starting to flow back into cash, especially the USD. (The USD is traditionally seen as the most "stable" and is typically where fiat assets flow into during recessions.) What does this mean for crypto? Well, up until now the narrative has been that out of the well-known coins out there, Dogecoin is the most "cash-like" since it's been actually used to buy and sell things at low costs. While the idea is interesting, DOGE has a few problems associated with it - that it still runs on proof-of-work (which is losing favor over time) and that being a fork of Bitcoin, it's technology is also being rapidly obsolete. (It cannot support NFT minting, for example.) There are plans for DOGE to move over to proof-of-stake eventually, but the timeline is TBD. 4. Money Will Flow into Staking Rewards As with ATOM/ALGO this past week, some lesser-known proof-of-stake coins have made its move - currently coins that offer competitive staking rewards are beating both the banks and the major proof-of-work coins, whom are simply unable to offer those types of rewards. ETH2 is now technically proof-of-stake, but its staking mechanisms aren't "liquid" - i.e. you don't know when you can get your money out. Some coins offer very high rewards (13%+) but is that too good to be true? Time will tell whether or not this model is sustainable or not. 5. Money Will Flow into Coins that Have Utility Arguably crypto's least talked about topic in public - coins that have real-life use-cases and actual products may start to see some gains as utility creates new converts over to particular projects. As the money for hype marketing strategies start to run low, many of the coins that have been running on it will start to drop out, making it easier for coins with real customers and revenue to stand out. Some coins have no value other than "store of value" - some coins have robust DeFi options but basically operates like an accounting firm - but there are a few projects out there that are attempting to expand into the worlds of direct applications. This is probably the most optimistic take on Web3's future as a whole, but the path of getting there isn't likely to be smooth - they don't call it "creative destruction" for nothing, after all. Of the projects out there, Tezos (XTZ) stands out as one of the few projects that have their hands in "everything" - with a diverse portfolio of projects in many sectors and brands across the world. (ETH does too, but their gas-fee problem has slowed technical and partnership development to a halt.) -- The actual outcome will probably some combination of the trends above, and is likely to get very complicated as time goes on, but I do think that it's important to keep an eye out for how key factions and ideas are circulating in the space right now since a lot of things are likely to change very quickly in the near future as we head further into what could potentially be the biggest global recession ever recorded in human history. "Higher numbers = good" has been the main focus of the crypto industry up until now but as time goes on we're likely to see more complex and nuanced takes on how the economy works and how Web3 fits into it as a whole. There might be some growing pains involved but this is how our understanding of economics matures, imo.
BITFINEX:XTZUSDLong
by RyanTanaka
XTZUSDT H2XTZUSDT Even with all the market sentiment worried about the FED's decisions and also the global geopolitical situation, which caused the fall of BTC and that took all the cryptocurrencies with it, XTZ has not lost its accumulation zone that has been passing since September 15, which will probably result in an upward explosion, as the RSI is oversold and completely undervalued. In order to reach its target, XTZ must pass through the resistance imposed by the median of the Keltner channel and the Ichimoku cloud. This should still happen today, as the XTZ is a high-octane coin and always works in considerable volume.
by ferulianov
The Proof-of-Stake Era is Here. Can ETH Survive the Winter?After Ethereum's "merge" this week, the crypto market continues to sag as a whole, unimpressed. One pattern we see emerging is that coins that have been proof-of-stake since the very beginning (especially ATOM and ALGO this week) have been performing very well relative to the rest of the market. (Coins to keep an eye on in the near future: XTZ, ADA, TRON, MATIC, etc.) As we head further into the recession we're going to start to see some of these patterns get more aggressive. The reason why this is happening should be pretty obvious at this point: people's attentions are switching over to proof-of-stake, and the coins that offer competitive staking rewards (aka interest rates) are starting to attract new customers. Flipping NFTs is too confusing to most people but most people can tell when one rate is higher than another. (Especially since most banks are still stuck in 0-interest rate savings mode at the moment.) The crypto community has largely been down on Ethereum lately as the realization that they've fallen behind the curve starts to settle in. But they're certainly not out of the race yet - the roadmap to make ETH competitive in the proof-of-stake race is pretty clear: 1) Make staking liquid - the fact that it's locked up for an indefinite period of time is pretty ridiculous, possibly illegal. (Probably in their own interest to do so quickly before it turns into a lawsuit, tbh.) As it stands now ETH's staking rewards are too cumbersome and not competitive enough for people to consider. 2) Adopting on-chain governance would make skeptics feel at ease and would quell some of the criticisms coming from the Bitcoin maxis too. The real problem is transparency, not centralization. 3) Fix the issues with scaling to bring gas fees down, finally. They can probably consult people from other chains who have already figured it out. (If they can get over themselves, that is, lol.) They definitely have the resources to do so - that was never in question. Whether they're actually gonna do it, though, that's another story. I didn't exit completely but as a disclaimer I did sell off a pretty big portion of my ETH holdings this year because of concerns over its long-term prospects. Ethereum may be well on its way to becoming Bitcoin 2.0, given that it's now become a deflationary asset. If you're an ETH holder you'll probably be OK since they'll probably continue to burn their supply to make sure that the price doesn't go down too much. Silicon Valley is known for their appeasement of the investor class and we're likely to see the same pattern play out again. But keep in mind that each coin burned just makes it harder for new people to come in - what they've done is basically put an expiration date on their own project since they're actively restricting the platform's growth now. (Crypto NIMBYism, as I like to call it.) Coin supply is a controversial topic in the industry but can be understood in a fairly straight-forward way: The higher the supply, the better it is for newcomers; the lower the supply, the better it is for existing holders. Maxis will repeat whatever marketing slogans they were fed but at the end of the day, it's about who's back you're willing to scratch. Getting returns on your investment requires you to see things as they are and read between the lines of what's being said - are they using that wealth to make genuine improvements on the protocol itself, or are they just hoarding it and promoting the scarcity model behind your backs? More coin supply to attract new talent/investors? Sure, good idea in theory. Just not here - "Not In My Back Yard". NIMBYism is a thing you see in the real-estate markets, and we start to see its ugly head rear in the crypto space, too. I do owe a lot to ETH - it stabilized my finances, paid off my student loans, and gave me the time to do the things I wanted to do, rather than had to do. But it's probably time for me to move on - I'm here for the dream, not just the money. 🔥
Long
by RyanTanaka
How Governance Affects a Cryptocurrency's Coin Supply and PriceAs of last year, the top 3 most well-known coins - Bitcoin, Ethereum, Dogecoin - have all become "predictable" in terms of its coin supply. BTC has always had a fixed supply cap, ETH has become aggressively deflationary after its EIP-1559 upgrade started "burning" its supply, and Dogecoin is technically "disinflationary" since the rate at which the protocol issues its coins is set to slow down gradually over time. (People have estimated ~5% going downwards to 1% or less over the course of many years.) What all 3 coins have in common: 1) the supply curves for these coins are fixed and predictable 2) political leverage correlates directly with the ownership of money itself 3) the economic trajectories of each coin are basically unchangeable without some sort of centralized control Bitcoin and Dogecoin's protocol decisions are handled by the mining community (they decide which blocks to continue mining, in case there is a disagreement), and now that Ethereum has moved over to proof-of-stake, most of its major decisions will be decided by the core team itself. With proof-of-work, hash power is political leverage, with proof-of-stake, the coins itself does the same. While maxis focus on the differences between the two, at the end of the day, leverage over the system is measured in terms of how much resources you're willing to spend on your particular "vote" - it just depends on which you prefer - hash-power, or money-power. To be fair, this is how most coins operate right now since it is currently not possible to reliably do a "one person one vote" model (as is typically done in developed democracies) since identifying an anonymous wallet as a "person" is extremely difficult. So as a lesser evil, we use money-invested (aka your "stake") as means of measuring how much influence one should have on an ecosystem as a whole. (In this regard, most cryptocurrencies are similar to corporate shareholder models.) Until we have a better way of identifying people online as being "real", we're likely to be stuck with this model for a while, but not all coin systems are created equal - some will probably have better long-term viability than others. And a lot of that will be determined by how each coin handles its governance procedures. Proof-of-work systems right now have no means of reliably doing voting/governance on-chain - as a result, most coins opt to do their voting through third-party systems or platforms. While this can sometimes work, there is no "receipt" of whether the tally was legitimate or not - you just have to trust that the people conducting the polls were doing it in good faith. BTC/DOGE has never had on-chain governance and likely never will, while ETH currently possesses the potential to do, but seems unlikely now that it has also become deflationary. The "fixed supply" argument is similar to the "buy gold" argument in that there is an inherent distrust of supply curves that are "flexible" - the idea that when there is less of something it's going to be worth more is an intuitive argument that makes sense to a lot of people, at least on the surface. But ideally, you want the price of a coin to go up because there's more demand for it, rather than inflating it artificially by burning your supply - the less there is of something, the more out of reach it becomes for newcomers and people will less money, after all. So when a project puts "fixed supply" as part of its core value proposition, it's basically prioritizing the short-term appeasement of existing holders at the expense of future growth. We see a similar type of scarcity mindset (the "I got mine" syndrome) in assets like real-estate and gold as well, which are also both about to face corrections of their own. An asset starts to "bubble" when prices increase but quality goes down - then "pops" when the demand for it bottoms out as people realize that it's not worth it. Ideally, you want the economy to be flexible enough to handle swings in demand/usage, while keeping incentives aligned between all parties (investors, validators, users) at all times. It requires a very careful balancing act that exists somewhere in between fixed and infinite supply - and even better if these decisions are made through consensus mechanism rather than a unilateral decision made behind closed doors. (Tezos' self-amending protocol, combined with its on-chain governance system stands out as unique in this regard.) -- So what to do if you're an existing HODLer? Well, short to medium term, coins like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Dogecoin will probably maintain their price as long as people come see it as a viable alternative to traditional assets as we get further into the recession -- that's the big bet that many are taking right now. But it does come with the understanding that it's probably only likely to happen once or twice more before the market saturates completely and hits its peak. Here crypto is at a disadvantage compared to assets like real-estate or tangible goods, since there's nothing forcing people to use BTC/ETH in particular - there are many other options in the market, after all. For more discussions about coin supply issues, here: www.reddit.com
COINBASE:XTZUSDEducation
by RyanTanaka
Ethereum Completes its "Merge". What's Next for ETH2?The much anticipated "merge" has happened on the Ethereum network as of last night - so far there doesn't seem to be any major shifts, although if you're an ETH holder you may have noticed a sharp drop-off in price as of this morning. (The market is down as a whole, but ETH took a bigger hit than most, as of today.) This pattern can be seen pretty often in the industry, where a technical upgrade or public hype often triggers a short-term rally as it gets close to the date, then a massive sell-off right after. (Dogecoin in particular tends to be very susceptible to this especially on Twitter, I've noticed.) While some attribute this behavior as "whale activity", it's usually a sign that ETH still has downward pressure in terms of price - experienced investors often try to time their liquidations by riding short-term hype cycles of clearly-defined dates, as seen here. While the merge was a momentous occasion for the chain for sure, now that it's over it's going to shift the attention of the project to a number of challenges that will likely determine the viability of ETH2 in the long-term. A few of them are: - Yesterday probably marks the beginning of the proof-of-stake era for the crypto industry, especially as we head further into the recession and staking rewards (interest rates) start looking more appealing as a place for people to park their money, longer-term. ETH has made that transition, but there are also already many competitors out there (Tezos, Cardano, Cosmos, TRON, etc.) that outperforms ETH2's staking rewards by a very large margin right now. (Though to be fair, ETH2 is still beating the banks, which still is trying to stay at near-0, despite the Fed's rate hikes.) - "The merge" is only 1 out of 5 steps (Merge, Surge, Verge, Purge, Splurge) until ETH2 is "fully done", which is estimated to take 6 years or longer. Gas fees won't be affected until their "sharding" upgrade is complete, which doesn't have a deadline as of yet. (Until then, most ETH apps will largely sit idle/abandoned since practical usage is just not possible right now.) 6 years is a very long time to sit idle, really. - ETH2 is currently not liquid (you're not allowed to withdraw from ETH2 accounts until they're "ready"), which makes it much more inflexible and risky than traditional CDs and bonds that have fixed end dates. This is likely to make it very unappealing for most investors out there who will need more clarity and stability in their returns, especially during bear markets. - Though in theory they are supposed to be independent, we don't actually know what sorts of after-effects ETH2 will have on Layer 2s and ERC tokens built on top of the original chain. Time will tell, but if the price continues to drop (which is likely at this point), we may start to see unintended effects start to pop up. (A lot of crypto projects "balance" their economy with the idea of the price always going up - but that strategy has already backfired in a number of projects already.) - ETH doesn't support on-chain governance systems (like Tezos - Vitalik was on record being against the idea for a very long time) so there is no way for people to know whether or not the outcomes of DAO or multi-chain votes were done with due-diligence or not. Many businesses and organizations will not participate in these activities until this is fixed. Until then, ETH holders will have to just get used to big decisions behind done behind closed doors. - What happens with the migration of miners in the ecosystem (ETH was the go-to in terms of mining profitability until now) will be interesting to see since this will be major shift in hash-power allocation in the industry as a whole. Bitcoin mining - due to its fixed supply - has a extremely high difficulty curve and very difficult to turn a profit on so most miners are unlikely to go there, either. It may be an opportunity for a lesser known proof-of-work chains to make its move. (Especially "useful" PoW projects like Gridcoin and Golem.) -- All in all, the merge came and went, as with like most technical upgrades in the past, the market didn't seem too concerned -- at least, not yet. Ethereum has the bigger challenge now of addressing use-cases and business concerns in order to re-attract the talent and resources that had fled the scene since its gas-fee problem started becoming all too apparent. Can it stay competitive among the proof-of-stake league that have had more time to refine their process? Time will tell.
Long
by RyanTanaka
5
XTZ at $1.66 as bullish momentum inflatesTezos price analysis shows a bullish bias trend XTZ prices have sought support at $1.64 Resistance for XTZ is present at $1.74 Tezos price analysis is bullish, with the XTZ/USD pair rising to the $1.69 level. The price action recently created a bullish engulfing candlestick pattern, which indicates that the bears are losing control. Currently, the price is just below the channel’s upper boundary at $1.74. A breakout above this level could see Tezos target the next resistance level at the $2.00 level. On the other hand, a failure to move past $1.74 may see the price pull back to test support at the $1.64 mark.
COINBASE:XTZUSD
by henryartem
Tezos - Wedge broke, but...Tezos Has been consolidating since it has broken the big descending wedge - And I would be bullish, if it wasn't because of Whale Money Line (on Trend Exhaustion) reaching a really high level lately. We still have time until those curvy high and lows reach the bottom of those curves (Very close!) and a breakout will be imminent. If it is to the downside - it will be just to retest some supports within a fakeout - Broken wedge target sits really high. Good buy spot.
Long
by TheSecretsOfTrading
Another Dip in the Market. What's the Silver Lining for Crypto?With inflation's end nowhere near in sight, the Federal Reserve this week announced more "tough times" ahead - indicating that they're likely to do more interest hikes for the rest of 2022. Inflation rates in the US right now sits around %8-10 - but since CPI reports exclude food and energy prices by design, the "real" inflation rate is likely a lot higher. Most people see the prices of food and gas rising in their own lives and are probably feeling more than what the "official" numbers say, at least. A lot have been said about what this means for the economy as a whole, but if you're a crypto investor the things to recognize are: - This is the first time in history that the Federal Reserve has increased interest rates during a recession - normally you lower rates as the economy dips to give it a boost, but the Feds have no room to do that since the rate was already at 0 for most of the last decade. The problem is much more severe than it is typically reported, especially in the wake of the COVID lockdown procedures that we have yet to experience the full effects of, yet. Some are predicting a market correction as high as 50-60% in stocks, 30-40% in real-estate. We don't know if it's going to go that high but there's no reason to think that it's going to improve, at this point. ("Brace for impact", as many have been warning for a while - it's finally coming.) - Increases in interest rates generally means borrowing is more expensive, which is likely going to slow down startup investments in the Web3 space, too. Crypto projects, VC/VC firms, and "thought leaders" in the space as we know now are likely to disappear in the next few years as access to cheap money dries out. - Crypto projects that have been heavily reliant on marketing to keep their prices up will likely tank with the fiat markets, because of its increased overlap with the mainstream economy. Even Bitcoin, Ethereum, Dogecoin, etc. may be in trouble since their notoriety may turn sour when the fiat markets tumbles further. (Being well-known is not an asset in this case, in other words.) - Currently the most popular crypto coins have no means of reacting to inflation rates (except for Ethereum, which will begin its staking services after the "merge" in September, in theory), so they may struggle to justify convincing people to HODL while the banks start to offer higher interest rates for savings accounts overall. Staking coins like Tezos , Algorand (ALGO), Cosmos(ATOM), are in better position to take advantage of these trends since they are, at least for now, outperforming the banks by a very large margin. - When the economy as a whole starts to get unstable the common wisdom is that money will flow into the USD. We don't know if that will happen this time - especially with the USD's credit rating outlooks having deemed "negative" by international agencies since 2013. We know that generally speaking, interest in crypto assets tends to increase in countries where its fiat currencies are less stable - but that often requires a breaking point in which the population loses faith in the banking system as a whole. Are we at that point, yet? - For crypto prices to stay stable, all it needs is about 1% of existing fiat money to maintain its current price. (The general economy is about a 100x bigger than the crypto economy as a whole right now.) But it's allocation, per coin, is not likely to stay even. Crypto will bottom out with the fiat economies, but only a select few coins are likely to make a comeback during the recovery process. Many crypto investors are banking (literally) on the general public losing faith in the fiat system as the market dips further, which will make crypto investments look more appealing. The most obvious "utility" for crypto right now is staking rewards - which are objectively outperforming the banks right now, but the bear market will also be a period for altcoins working on providing real value to its users to come out ahead. It's going to be a wild ride either way - good luck, folks. 🤞
Editors' picks
BITTREX:DOGEUSDLong
by RyanTanaka
16