Tezos
NFTs Are Here to Stay: Proof-of-Storage Makes its MoveBack from NFTNYC 2022 (was showcasing and promoting our new company there) and the biggest takeaway from the conference was the NFTs are here to stay, despite the downturn in the markets right now.
But during this period of market consolidation there have been a few "spikes" among select alt-coins as people start to tighten up their wallets and look for projects that have more utility over hype. The last few weeks have been very good for projects associated with decentralized storage systems, which includes STORJ and XCH (Chia Coin), which has basically outperformed every other crypto asset out there. (50%+ in the last few weeks.) These are the "signs of life" investors often look for to see if a project has "resilience" against the typical waves of ups and downs.
Proof-of-storage projects have potential large upsides - especially in the long-term - because while betting on which NFT project is going to "moon" can be extremely risky, it's a "sell pickaxes, not gold" situation where you can potentially profit off of regardless of which NFT collection themselves do well. Especially with security vulnerabilities starting to emerge as people realize that many NFT collections (including big-name platforms like OpenSea) are not actually decentralized and may be vulnerable to hacking or company bankruptcy.
In the past the question was - "are people going to care enough to protect these .jpgs in the proper way?" It seems like the answer to that is yes, and projects that already have solutions to said problems are likely to do well, long-term.
No more Dogecoin, Shiba Inu and Tezos rewards says Crypto.com
Crypto.com made significant changes to Crypto Earn, the product that allows users to stake their assets and earn rewards in exchange. Shiba-Inu-themed meme coins and several other cryptocurrencies were pulled out of the program and FTM, ZIL, and NEAR were added.
Crypto.com, the leading cryptocurrency exchange, announced a revamp of its staking rewards program Crypto Earn. Effective June 27, 2022, 10:00 UTC, the exchange announced the removal of Dogecoin, Shiba Inu, and thirteen other tokens from its program.
#Tezos Resistance at $1.54, XTZ Prices in a Bear Flag FormationPast Performance of Tezos
Tezos prices are trailing the USDT after a relief rally. At spot rates, the coin remains within a bear breakout formation, sliding six percent in the last trading week. In the immediate term, the primary support and resistance levels lie at $1.22 and $1.54, respectively.
#Tezos Technical Analysis
From the daily chart, sellers are in a commanding position. XTZ prices are tracking lower in a descending channel within a bear flag. With sellers unwinding gains, traders can wait to trade the breakout in either direction. Preferably, the surge in either direction can be with rising trading volumes. A close below $1.22 will nullify the bullish outlook, confirming sellers of June 13. In that case, XTZ may slide to $1.20 and even $1.10 in the medium term. Conversely, gains above $1.54 may see Tezos bulls drive prices towards May 2022 lows at $1.64.
What to Expect from #XTZ?
Buyers are confident, but bulls are struggling to tame the wave of recent liquidation. While recent gains may slow the sell-off, a break above $1.54 is required to restore traders’ confidence.
Resistance level to watch out for: $1.54
Support level to watch out for: $1.22
Disclaimer: Opinions expressed are not investment advice. Do your research.
Tezos Analysis + The Next Altcoins Bull Market Strategy)Welcome again, it is my pleasure to have your attention.
We are going to be looking at Tezos vs Bitcoin (XTZBTC) from a different perspective today.
Let's start with the daily chart:
- The first thing to notice is that the chart is bullish. This is important because Bitcoin is right now hitting new lows with very bad technicals, while this and other Altcoins vs Bitcoin pairs we trade are starting to grow.
- We have a bullish chart with green volume increasing massively in the last few weeks (strong buying).
- We have higher lows since early May.
- We have a strong RSI and bullish MACD.
As you can see, XTZBTC is now bullish...
It can drop of course or change; the charts can always change...
But this is what we currently have.
Long-term we aim UP!
WARNING: If you see a strong flash crash hit all the Altcoins, remain calm... They will recover.
When Bitcoin does its final shakeout, everything will shake.
Right now is not the time to look for an exit or to sell.
Right now we look for opportunities to buy for the next bullish wave.
The selling time is long gone...
It is time to see back, watch, buy and wait.
Namaste.
The Battle for Interest Rates: Tezos (XTZ) vs Ethereum (ETH2)Been writing a few long articles lately but the tl;dr of it is that now that interest rates are going up, the asset speculation market (real estate, stocks, venture capital, crypto/NFTs) is largely over and money will start to flow into financial products that provide more "reliable" returns - mainly interest rates.
Given that the banks are dragging its feet in terms of giving people interest in their savings accounts, coins that offer reliable staking rewards will probably start to gain more attention as time goes on.
I've been promoting the coin Tezos quite a bit lately since it's the coin that I feel like has the biggest long-term promise. They currently offer:
1) staking rewards (4.63% on Coinbase but higher if you stake them yourself)
2) on-chain governance (which most don't have, including Bitcoin and Ethereum)
3) people building/minting lots of things on top of it all the time, despite the dips in the market right now
You probably remember me stanning for ETH since that's how I got my first successes is crypto, but to be honest they may be in trouble longer term if they don't do their merge sooner than later - gas fees are one thing but their decision to stick to off-chain governance models (basically trusting its users to make decisions behind closed doors) has been causing major issues in some projects, especially in DAOs. (Look up Brantley and ENS for an example of what happens with coin-based voting systems.)
Whether I give up on ETH completely (I did sell off a pretty big chunk of it recently) will largely depend on how the Consensys merge goes this August and if they move towards or away from the ideals that they're advocating for all the time. They have a lot of catching up to do because #XTZ right now has all of the things they like to talk about already running.
For the average person out there, what they're going to see is banks and crypto competing against each other in something that more people can understand: interest rates. Right now crypto is winning since they have the capacity to offer people better rates than the banks are - and can definitely win if they play their cards right. NFTs are still confusing for most people but one number being higher than another number is something that almost anyone can understand. You might even argue that this is the first time crypto is competing against the banks in a very direct way.
The markets might look scary right now but once it settles down we'll start to see new patterns emerge with new ideas and products taking the scene.
2022 - Not the Recession We Want, but the Recession We NeedIn response to the Federal Reserve increasing interest rates yet again, the markets - both in stocks and crypto (and housing soon to come) - have been dropping pretty hard lately. For crypto investors out there: this is the sound of mainstream money from the general public leaving the space - they came for the party, then left after the party was over. The craze that we saw in 20’-21’ was really the result of NFT projects targeting people - largely cooped up indoors due to the pandemic - with a hype-based marketing strategy that seemingly resonated very strongly.
Out of all the NFT projects that could have reached #1, it was the Bored Apes Yacht Club: it doesn’t take an art expert (although I do like to fancy myself as one at times) to see what BAYC’s success “means” - it’s obviously targeted at people who’s primary ethos is boredom…and exclusivity. In a way, BAYC is the perfect sign of the times - people bored of the lockdown, the rise of digital marketing and remote work, our reliance on artificial scarcity to determine “value”, and Web2 marketing/hype and investing practices all rolled into one. There’s a reason why even the Ethereum team (most visible Vitalik) renounced BAYC as something that ETH “wasn’t intended” to do. Adjective-Animal JPGs basically missed the point of why Web3 was created from the very beginning.
Now that the Feds are tightening up their money supply (finally, after having printed endless amounts of it during the last few years) the “casino” market is about to come to an end. But just because the market is in a downturn doesn’t automatically mean that everything will be bad…there are lots of opportunities still there; they just look different from what we’re used to seeing up until now. For some of us out there, we’ve been waiting for this moment for a very long time.
If you might have been thinking about changing or trying new things out in your life, now is probably the best time to do it because in a few months the world as we know it will probably get flipped on its head and most things will become unrecognizable anyway. During recessions people’s priorities tend to shift away from speculative assets and into savings; short-term investments into long-term; people shopping for interest rates on savings rather than loan accounts; and so on. Those who adapt will do well - but it will require a shift in mindset that may feel strange and unfamiliar. People say that “everyone” suffers during a recession but I tend to disagree - in any given market there are always winners and losers; money is game of how the idea of “value” compares itself to the price of goods around us. It is always relative to each other, in other words - and there are always ways to get ahead if you’re willing to look at the details close enough.
- The Market Itself is a Bubble
One thing to keep in mind that 80%+ of people don't own any stocks/crypto, so all the panic, hype, and emotional reactions you see in the media/social media is already a bubble of its own. Most people only see the prices of the things that they interact with every day - thing most people are seeing right now is that they see that inflation is cutting into their ability to survive day to day - and that something needs to be done. Until crypto products address these sorts of “bigger issues” of the public directly, it will always follow the general markets rather than setting the tone.
The reality is that most people in living in United States were already used to massive inflation - the costs of living was already on the rise since 12’ onward (especially in housing, education, and healthcare - typically the 3 biggest expenses for the average person out there) and people were already getting squeezed out every year anyway. In the upcoming months there will be a lot of people with lots of money complaining about how “hard” things are for them, but I don’t expect there will be any sympathy for them - in fact, they will probably be the target for the next ridicule cycle if anything, really.
What that means is that the economy was already hell for most people during the "good times" - inflation was already well out of control but we simply failed to acknowledge it. On a personal level, I lost more friends (especially artists) than I care to talk about: many were forced to move away from the places they loved because the costs of simply existing in certain areas became untenable. A lot of people I knew gave up on having kids, gave up on their dreams, went back living with their parents - worse case, some of them literally ended up on the streets simply because they were unable to pay their rent.
People who have known me long enough know that prior to getting into crypto I was heavily involved with housing politics through the YIMBY movement - though this downturn is hurting my portfolio too, it's hard for me to think that a market crash would be a bad thing long-term, because not only would it would lessen the pearl-clutching incentives/behaviors of NIMBYs, it should also bring down costs of everything as a whole. And that is good for everybody, not just the few who happen to be lucky enough to get their hands on a certain type of ERCs.
So while it may be unpleasant to see the numbers in your accounts go down, this is the correction that many have been waiting for - the correction that we need. Once the housing market stops going up, there’s less reason (and ability) for NIMBYs to defend their imaginary gains against the tides of supply and demand - and in the long run, the market should equalize itself to where it should be. What Web3 needs more of is people with a mindset of abundance rather than of scarcity - and this will become more important as the crypto ecosystem starts to mature.
Web3 is not only a movement of its own, but it’s also a repudiation of the bad habits of the Wall Street/Web2 model - which has, over time, become a ponzi scheme of its own. Low interest loans allowed startups, politicians, and scammers to “fundraise” their way out of trouble: No money to pay for things we need? No problem - just print more! Company not profitable? No problem - just raise your Series Z to keep it going just a little bit longer! Ponzi schemes do actually “work” on some level, after all - as long as the market keeps on going up.As we’ve seen with what happened with LUNA/3AC - which was entirely backed on the fantasy of Bitcoin going up forever and forever - there’s going to be a backlash against the stock market too, so that’s something to keep an eye out for. How did Bernie Madoff get away with what he did for over 20 years? The market was always going up. Now that the tide is pulling, we’ll get to see who was swimming naked underneath this whole time.
- It’s Time for the King (Bitcoin) to Serve its People
Bitcoin is obviously the first of its kind and currently the market leader in the crypto space as we speak - but for how long? While Ethereum is moving towards proof-of-stake as its primary economic engine (taking most of its tokens along with it), Bitcoin leaned hard into the proof-of-work + scarcity model in the last few years and never looked back. Given that the store-of-value idea is not unique to any coin - and that the only “value” Bitcoin currently provides is potential speculative gains (which are on its way out as staking rewards start to look more appealing during a recession) and a strange retro-nostalgia aesthetic for the pre-08’ eras (which will gradually fade over time), it’s hard to see it surviving for the long term. More broadly speaking, “it was there first” is exactly the type of NIMBY argument that the market will “correct” in the upcoming recession, taking down a multitude of asset classes that have been relying on that mentality up until this point. Ethereum is attempting to escape that fate through their “merge” (we’ll see if they’re successful in doing that this summer), but Bitcoin has basically signed the pact to go down with the ship. In a few months, it could potentially be the only proof-of-work system left on the charts, quite literally.
I’ve always found it odd that a lot of Bitcoin fans aren’t too shy about calling their coin of choice “King” - which is actually a fairly new phenomenon that came during the 16’-18’ run, not before. (The dev community was much purer back then.) This phrase clashes directly with their supposed support for decentralization and democratization of money - the cognitive dissonance there is massive, to say the least. (Since there is no on-chain governance in BTC systems a small group of miners usually end up controlling everything on the protocol level behind closed doors, btw.)
There’s something very disturbing about the glint you see in their eyes when they claim that Bitcoin holders (not anyone else, obviously) will become the most “powerful” people in the world in a few years - I don’t think anyone outside of that bubble really believes that - especially now. This is the year 2022 and we don’t really have the time to idolize or fantasize the absolute powers of monarchy, even in imaginary forms. Web3 will rely on the transparency of ledgers to establish partnerships of mutual benefit, enforced by precision and reliability of smart contracts - but this requires us to get better at collaboration, rather than moving unilaterally and monopolistically, as Web2 has typically done.
As is the case with modern monarchies - the royalty can either choose to step down or be taken down forcibly - one or the other will happen, either way. BTC has largely been left out of the development talks of Web3 systems as a whole, since they refused to fork out their systems to make compatibility improvements - it will eventually get left behind as the world continues to move without them. Luckily this will happen through the simple process of numbers going up and down - rather than having to deal with the fallout of it in the real-world itself.
- What’s Coming Next for Web3?
The typical pattern that the economy goes through during periods of recession is that they switch from a speculative to a savings mindset - when both the banks and the government spends all their money and have literally nothing left, what do they do? Raise interest rates to incentivize people to put money back in. As far as anyone can tell, the fundamentals of this relationship hasn’t changed and is not likely to have done so during this cycle either.
In crypto this means that there will be less demand for NFT lotteries and higher demand for coins that offer staking rewards as a benefit - undoubtedly there will be more and more people searching for the best rates out there as the Fed starts to raise its rates even further in order to keep inflation under control. Interest rates has been at 0% for so long that most people probably forgot that it was a thing - staking was a hard sell even during last year’s run since news of its developments were largely out-blasted by the NFT mania as a whole. But as we start transitioning into a different phase of the economy, people’s priorities are likely to shift.
Some coins that are well positioned to take advantage of this shift are Tezos, Algorand, Cardano, NANO, and many of the other coins that have been proof-of-stake from the very beginning. Ethereum and Dogecoin both have plans on switching over to proof-of-stake in the future (ETH supposedly in August, Dogecoin’s date is unknown), but the elephant in the room that nobody is talking about right now is the fact that Bitcoin doesn’t have the means (nor the plans to) transition into anything that is likely to be relevant in the near future.
Time will tell, but we’ll see what happens over the course of the next few months, next few years, since what happens is likely to be a crucial turning point for the industry as a whole. Now that mainstream money has left the space, both whales and HODLers are waiting for the right time to reorganize their portfolios and get back in. With fiat money out of the picture, we’re likely to see more independent movement between coins and clear winners and losers emerge within the ecosystem rather than always moving in parallel as it has up until now. What comes out in the aftermath of all of this will be a very different crypto landscape - possibly with the “flippening” happening during the midst of it as well.
As one last reminder, your portfolio going down is not necessarily a bad thing, if the goods that you pay for day-to-day gets, on average, cheaper. So I hope people don’t lose sight of the bigger picture and sees the opportunities and benefits that can come out of this transition as a whole. Money is about to get smarter: something that people have been demanding for a very long time. Well, if that’s what you’re looking for it’s coming right for us - hope people can recognize it when it’s here.
Staking Rewards: The Best Hope for Crypto During the RecessionNews of record high inflation and the federal reserve's plan to increase interest rates this year has a lot of people worried that a recession (probably on a global scale) is coming this year. After over a decade of constant growth in the US stocks and real-estate markets, we're finally going to see the bubble pop. GDP is down, governments are broke, and
I would argue that the "craze" of the last few years in stocks, housing, and even NFTs were driven by low-interest rates that encourage people to speculate rather than save - the act of buying "useless" NFTs, in a way, makes "sense" when compared to the alternative - earning almost nothing on savings and CD accounts. (The crypto "crash" we see in the last few weeks is a result of "crypto-curious" money exiting the space - most of which run in parallel to the fiat markets as a whole.) As interest rates get higher and higher over the next few months, however, that script is likely going to get flipped on its head.
If the crypto industry adapts fast enough, they can take advantage of the fact that the banks are still dragging their feet in terms of offering better interest rates - staking rewards are currently outperforming the savings rates of most banks by a very wide margin and is a much easier sell to the average person out there just trying to protect their money. (The idea of buying NFTs of apes and rocks as your future nest-egg will start to sound more silly as time goes on, I think.)
In a way this marks the end of the speculative-NFT era for the crypto industry, and possibly the end of the dominance of the proof-of-work model itself. Prior to the big "crash" a few weeks ago, many proof-of-stake coins Tezos (XTZ), Chainlink (LINK), Cardano (ADA) saw blips of independent movement as the rest of the market continued to tumble. If this trend continues over time (since these projects are actually offering something of value to its users - interest and real returns) we may start to see lesser-known contenders in the space rising to the top of the charts. (Ethereum is currently in limbo right now, at least until they finally do their ETH2/Consensys/"merge" in August - they've taken outsized losses this week due to the come-downs of the NFT craze.)
As mentioned a few times before, Bitcoin may be in big trouble because the thing people are going to be looking for - interest rates - isn't something they're able to offer on any level, especially after the market goes into a downturn this year. All those years the mining community spent blocking money supply and block size upgrades may finally come back to bite them - the "flippening" may already be on its way. (And Ethereum too, if they fail to adapt to the new landscape - time will tell.)
A Few Notes for Crypto Winter First-TimersThe crypto market is in "free fall" today, as some of you may have heard. Decided to write something from the perspective of someone who's been through a few "crypto winters" over the last 8 years or so.
mirror.xyz
--
I feel like a million years old writing in this tone - though everyone in crypto knows that a week in this industry is equivalent to a year in “normal” time so being inside crypto-lala-land long enough does warp your sense of time. (The last few years of insanity in the world itself doesn’t help too, of course.)
But it’s also true that I've been through 3 crypto bull/bear cycles at this point (I was in the ETH ICO in 14’ - divested most of it since then, for the record) and may have a useful perspective to some - not that these dips don't hurt, but I was relatively fortunate to have survived the last few ones through a combination of planning ahead and a few strokes of good luck. But I will say again what I say to almost everyone: crypto is a 3-4 year play at minimum, and you need to have the patience to wait at least that long. Life is short, yes; but at the same time it’s also very, very long.
The first few hype cycles (14-16') I literally wasn't aware of anything because crypto was just an obscure, zany idea back then and people held them largely for fun. There were no exchanges - or ones you’d want to trust your money with, anyway. (Mt. Gox, yikes.) The easiest way to get Bitcoin was to mine them yourself or find some guy on the internet who you could exchange it with a pizza or some other type of bartering deal. My wallet was worth so little at the time that I forgot about it and almost lost my private key, in fact. 🤣
The second one (16-18') I worked "regular" jobs and did dollar cost averaging so I didn't have to touch my investments for day-to-day needs. I cashed out only when I needed it, for emergencies and unexpected expenses. My decision to sell was need-based, rather than speculation-based, in other words. (This one did really pay off and I wish more people would do it, honestly.)
To prep for the "winter" today I've spent an excessive amount of time doing research on projects that are focused on utility and community-building…and re-allocated my portfolio accordingly. I may have made a few mistakes but after being burned a few times I think I’ve gotten better at picking assets that will survive for the longer-term. The market is still in free-fall so we'll see if that pays off.
As a general observation, I’ve seen lots of projects go through problems that many would consider catastrophic - but survived out of sheer perseverance. There were a few projects started with great ambitions but eventually found success by finding and refining their niche. Finding product-market-fit isn’t easy - these things do take time to figure out, even on a human level. (You can see glimpses of potential future successes when people “buy the dip” during downturns - a sign that enough people care about the project to help it stay afloat.)
I have never, however, seen a project start off as a money-making scheme then successfully “pivot” onto making something useful later. Like a song that people find catchy, projects usually start and end the same way; with the same chorus, and the same tone. If you’re still holding onto those hype coins, you may want to look at your portfolio a little closer this time because if the team isn’t actually working on anything serious there’s a good chance it will never come back up ever again. (Although I gotta say, the way Ethereum Classic was able to continue to scam people despite its protocol layer being completely compromised was impressive in its zombie-like way.)
I gained a lot of respect for the Ethereum team during the last few drops because they seemed unconcerned and continued to do what they love - building tech. That and they had the support of a development community that genuinely cared about the product enough to keep it afloat during the “hard times” - the #1 resource of any project, in my opinion. But the hype of 20-21’ really brought in a lot of grifters into the ETH ecosystem and the gas-fee problem really toxified the culture there, which I think its unfortunate. (Bitcoin leaned hard into the scarcity model and might be beyond repair at this point.) We'll see if the bear market + Consensys/ETH2 merge will fix that - at this point implementing the tech itself should be a pretty straightforward process - but culture is much harder to fix once it goes sour.
If people are hanging around each other solely because they think they might rich, when the money’s gone it doesn’t take very long before they start turning on each other. In both Bitcoin and Ethereum we saw the raw ugliness that came from the Proof-of-Work scarcity model - which incentivizes selfish and toxic behaviors in ways that even its founders couldn’t have anticipated. As Ethereum moves away from Proof-of-Work and into the worlds of Proof-of-Stake, is this the end of the Proof-of-Work era for crypto? Let us hope so. (The military dictatorship in El Salvador, which dared to make Bitcoin its reserve currency is in danger of defaulting now, by the way.)
For the record, I own 0 Bitcoin - I sold them off a few years ago after seeing how they’ve basically given up on making any meaningful improvements on the protocol itself - gated off by an off-chain governance process controlled by a small group of miners out there. If you’re comfortable with that setup by all means, but hope you at least understand what you’re getting yourself into.
-- What Comes Next? Interest Rates and Proof-of-Stake --
Last time it was Crypto Kitties, this time it was Bored Apes - in a weird way the way we talked about crypto tech hadn't really evolved much since then - probably why 2021 became the era of the (adjective)-(animal) NFTs, rather than a triumph for humanity itself. Web3 was supposed to be about scalable partnerships, not about cattle auctions of imaginary animals - but somehow we all collectively missed the point of why the technology was created to begin with.
Some ideas in Web3 that I think still has some long-term potential: "useful" Proof-of-Work , Proof-of-Storage , the metaverse , DAOs, Proof-of-Identity , decentralized video , and of course, NFTs - after it becomes more “useful” to everyone. What these projects all have in common, though, is that they’re not quite production ready and are all in their alpha/beta stages right now. Great potential and great upside? Yes - still, yes. Are we there yet? No - not even close.
Despite the hype, the tech behind crypto and Web3 systems haven’t evolved that much in the last few years - mostly because Web3’s biggest issue right now isn’t technical, it’s organizational/cultural: for the blockchain to have any use, the community needs to convince everyday businesses and people to adopt practices like ledger validations, using wallets for building social profiles, trackable and authoritative reputation/action/credit scores, etc. - all which are doable now on a technical level, but needs the cooperation of multiple organizations working in tandem with each other.
Since crypto doesn’t deal with physical assets directly, it needs to validate itself through the utility of a service that is actually tangible to the average person out there. Most of that involves bridging social/cultural/industrial divides that Web2 companies never dared to cross. There’s a lot to be unlearned first before we can move onto the next phases of the crypto experiment itself.
For now, though, there’s one obvious “utility” that I’ve been saving for last - interest rates from staking rewards. What makes this crypto cycle different from the others is that fiat systems and many government institutions around the globe are in big trouble this year: Bitcoin/crypto was “invented” sometime after 08’ as a direct response to the economic crisis then - but has largely existed in a 0% interest rate environment up until now. When interest rates start going up in fiat - possibly to 1970s levels, even - we have no idea how the coins themselves are going to respond.
As the federal reserve continues to increase interest rates in response to inflation (they have no choice at this point), the general public’s attention will undoubtedly shift from a speculative mindset to a savings-based one - as it typically happens during recessionary times. Mortgage and loan rates have undoubtedly risen, but the banks have been slow to offer higher savings rates to people as a whole. Who’s actually paying out interest rates right now? Crypto.
If the banks continue to drag its feet, coins that offer staking rewards (Tezos, Ethereum , Algorand, even Cardano) actually have a real competitive advantage to what fiat is offering right now. One number is higher than the other number - it’s pretty straightforward and an easier sell than trying to get people to buy animal jpgs, honestly. If crypto adapts faster than the banks do this year, this may actually when people finally begin to see the “utility” behind the technology itself.
-- A Fork-in-the-Road - Which Do You Choose? --
22’ is likely going to be an insane year for more reasons than one: we’re going to face economic, social, and political turmoil all at the same time, with crypto mixed into that chaos somewhere in the middle. But a reminder that money is relative - a market crash isn’t necessarily a bad thing if the result is cheaper goods on your money, and visa versa.
The truth is that most people have been losing money every year even during these “good times” - the feeling of numbers getting higher in your bank account means nothing if the goods you pay for is rising higher than what you earn. So we already know that holding fiat is already a loss, and the one thing that made it worth it - stocks and housing - is about to tumble now, too. Crypto doesn’t need to be perfect, in other words: all it needs to do is prove itself better than fiat, which, in theory, shouldn’t be too hard to do as the Bernie Madoff 2.0s start emerging in the wake of a growth market gone sour.
Whether or not crypto will go up or down during the recession this year has been a long-standing debate within the crypto community, and only time will tell which way it will go. But there’s basically two different ways to look at it -
When the economy goes into a recession, so will crypto, because:
- Buyers of crypto and stocks are more overlapped than not, and the two asset classes have historically always moved in parallel.
- The idea that Bitcoin/crypto is a hedge against inflation has not panned out as hoped.
- During recessions when budgets become tighter, people are less likely to put money into speculative assets, like crypto.
- Crypto existed in a 0% interest rate environment for the most part and if you take that away, so will the momentum behind it as well.
Or - when the economy goes into a recession, crypto will go up, because:
- Total crypto adoption is ~10% of the world, at best. Still lots of room to grow.
- Crypto adoption tends to be higher in countries with severe inflation - the loss of confidence in the banking and financial systems (which is happening already) often forces people to consider alternatives.
- Staking rewards currently offer more interest than the banks and will be very appealing to some people as they shop around for competitive interest rates.
- Bitcoin was created in 08’ financial crisis as a response to the problems leading up to it, so the emotional response to the next downturn will likely be more pro-crypto than not.
So there’s a fork in the road here, and people HODLing crypto right now will have to make a choice regarding which path they want to take. I suggest that people take a hard look at their portfolio in the upcoming months and think about what they’re comfortable with and how they think things will unfold over the course of the next few years.
The good news is that regardless of what happens, the inflation-fueled 1970s era was known for a lot of structural uncertainty but it was also the period of good music/art and great social change - something that I think will be a boon to the long-term health of the NFT markets as a whole. I get that we live in a very anti-social era right now, but at the end of the day, crypto is money, and money is about people. You can’t make real money unless you make some effort at understanding how people think.
There’s plenty of reasons to think that the industry will do well in the long run, but it will take a lot of work to get there. If the community puts in the work, it will succeed because the opportunity is still definitely there - if not, it will fail. It’s pretty simple, really.
Good luck and good fortune, folks. If you need me, I’ll be working on my next project, Teia Surf, in building the types of incentive structures that had always been the dream of Web3. As a lot of the veterans of the crypto industry would say - the best time to build, is now. 🤞🍀
Proof-of-Stake Makes Their Move: Is Bitcoin In Trouble?This might be somewhat of a controversial take, but for a while I've been warning that Bitcoin's long-term prospects may be in trouble - a lot of it has to do with how the coin's community distanced itself from utility and business cases and leaned hard into the "store of value" idea during last year's hype.
- The idea of "store of value" applies to all money and is not really a competitive advantage: all coins store value by default.
- Bitcoin's block size limitation and efforts to make improvements on the protocol have largely been thwarted by the mining community who prefers the scarcity model and don't want things to change.
- Bitcoin failed to rise in response to inflation like gold did: the "Bitcoin is good for inflation" thesis did not pan out in the last few rallies for alternative assets.
- Bitcoin's recent attempts at defending their interests through the political system (Brad Sherman vs Aarika Rhodes, El Salvador) isn't getting the results that many of its supporters hoped for. And more people are starting to realize that its governance processes and scaling solutions are done off-chain - which clashes with the idea that the coin is completely decentralized.
- Despite its attempt at differentiation, the data suggests that people buying stocks and people buying Bitcoin are often overlapped heavily, ever since it became much easier to acquire crypto assets through mainstream sources. Bitcoin's name-recognition may end up hurting them in the long-run since it's likely to go down with the fiat market as a whole.
As inflation remains high (a record 8.6% in May in the US), the financial industry is starting to talk more about interest rates - during recessionary times people tend to favor reliable interest returns rather than speculation plays. As a result of this we see that crypto coins that offer staking rewards (Tezos - XTZ, Algorand - ALGO, Cardano - ADA; soon to be Ethereum - ETH and Chainlink - LINK) are starting to gain some momentum.
Given that the banks have been hesitant to raise interest rates on their savings mechanisms (though they don't seem to have any problems raising interest rates on your mortgages/loans lol) the value that proof-of-stake coins offer in DeFi have started to look much more appealing. If these trends continue, the "flippening" may be sooner than we thought. (But not in the way that most thought it would go down - it may not even be Ethereum, if the merge doesn't go as planned over this summer.)
XTZ/USDT: On Buying area, Direct rise expected---- Mid-term Analysis for the next coming 4 weeks to 3 months - Daily on Daily Chart (LOG)-------
XTZ/USDT: On Buying area, Direct rise expected
Context
- The Global Crypto market leads by BTC and ETH is still evolving within a bearish market configuration. Like the others digital assets XTZ suffered about negative global market situation.
- However we are focus on a key buying area now on this coin and we expect a fast and quick recovery regarding technical elements provided by the interpretation of the Elliott waves .
Market configuration
- Graphical Elements :
Graphical Resistance = 2,90 & 9,17
Graphical Support = 0,78
- Mathematical Indicators:
EMA ( Exp Moving averages) are now slowering their drop with the faster one already support = Neutral
RSI indicator (below) is bouncing off key support, a reintegration of the 50% area is in progress = Bullish
- Elliot & Harmonic Wave (Fibonacci):
Fibonacci Target C (B) has been already reached = 1,93
Fibonacci resistance of the wave in progress = 2,90
Fibonacci support of the wave (c) (B) (max extension) = 1,46 (auto-similar move = Channel)
Fibonacci Bullish Target = 5,90
Conclusion
Preferred case => Regarding the mid-term element, XTZ is offering the perfect entry area for a mid-term portfolio configuration in order to anticipate a bullish exit towards 2,90 and 5,90 as long as 1,46 remains support - In extension a larger rise towards the previous top at 9,17 can't be ignored
Alternative cases => Breaking 1,46 tactical support a significant drop will occur within a global bearish market pressure. In this way 0,78 will be reached.
XTZ - Tezos. The Next BIG thing!? XTZ Tezos, the self-amending cryptographic ledger now has been backed by the biggest stable coin USDT.
This will help XTZ succeed further more. Tezos fundamentals are very strong as its already ahead of the POS competition.
"Tezos is also unique because of how it has started to be used by high-profile businesses. In September 2020, it was announced that the French banking giant Societe Generale planned to use this blockchain for experimenting with a central bank digital currency."
"Big cryptocurrency exchanges such as Binance and Coinbase have also unveiled support for Tezos staking, meaning users can receive rewards based on the XTZ that they hold. This is not a feature that’s seen too widely across digital assets."
"Tezos aims to offer infrastructure that is more advanced — meaning it can evolve and improve over time without there ever being a danger of a hard fork. This is something that both Bitcoin and Ethereum have suffered since they were created. People who hold XTZ can vote on proposals for protocol upgrades that have been put forward by Tezos developers."
If Tezos can bounce from this support and consolidate. It may be the next BIG thing long term.
My future price target is - 30.00 approx.
Markets Unresponsive to ETH2's Test Merge: What's Rallying Now?Ethereum holders were hoping for a big rally after this week's "merge" on ETH's primary test network, Ropsten, but so far the markets have been responsive.
Coins that offer staking rewards, however, did fairly well this week as a whole - the two winners being Tezos (XTZ) and Chainlink (LINK) which saw big gains today and over the course of this week as a whole.
Tezos:
- Fork-less upgrades and on-chain governance models on XTZ provide tangible solutions to a lot of the issues the crypto industry is going through right now, especially in DAOs.
- Recession talks are getting more people into a savings mindset - and Tezos' accessible and competitive rates (4.6%) makes it very appealing for crypto holders to convert to.
- The interest in NFTs from artists and art collectors are starting to migrate over to chains like XTZ ever since gas-fees started to get out of control on the ETH ecosystems - time will tell if the Consensys "Merge" in August will have developers and artists return but for now, Tezos and other layer 2s are taking advantage of the lull and pulling ahead.
Chainlink:
- Working on many background infrastructure projects at high levels.
- Has an interesting history (which involves the 4chan crowd, oddly enough) that gave it a cult-like status a few years ago that seems to be paying off today.
--
While the crypto market as a whole has remained fairly flat-lined this week, the projects with the biggest gains seem to have a few things in common: the offer of staking rewards; and a visible community backing the project during its downturns, thus "buying the dip". If you're a long-term trader, these trends are positive signs that the asset has real resilience behind them.
www.forbes.com
#Tezos Prints Higher, Will XTZ Edge Past $2.2?Past Performance of Tezos
The dominant trend in the short term is bullish. Gleaned from the formation in the daily chart, buyers have the upper hand. Risk-off swing traders may find loading opportunities to buy the dips with targets at immediate key resistance levels. In the past 24 hours, XTZ is up four percent and stable in the previous trading week.
#Tezos Technical Analysis
Tezos is inching higher, trending inside a rising channel above the middle BB in a bullish breakout formation. Even though prices are within an ascending channel, traders may find entries to buy Tezos above the flexible support line and $1.80. On the other hand, risk-averse traders can wait for a clean break above $2.2 and last week's highs before riding the wave with targets at $2.5 in a possible retest. A recovery is likely following the 57 percent correction from 2022 highs. Depending on the reaction at $2.5, the move up would be a retest or a buy trend continuation pattern. Conversely, losses below $1.80 and the ascending channel would invalidate the bullish preview, setting sellers in motion.
What to Expect from #XTZ?
Buyers are optimistic, as per the arrangement in the daily chart. However, a close above $2.2 will be crucial in determining the immediate term price trajectory following double-digit losses from the beginning of the year.
Resistance level to watch out for: $2.2
Support level to watch out for: $1.8
Disclaimer: Opinions expressed are not investment advice. Do your research.
XTZ Beats Everything Again: 3 Reasons WhyTezos (XTZ) broke from the pack yet again today, outperforming most major coins despite today's downturn in the overall markets.
- Fork-less upgrades and on-chain governance models on XTZ provide tangible solutions to a lot of the issues the crypto industry is going through right now, especially in DAOs.
- Recession talks are getting more people into a savings mindset - and Tezos' accessible and competitive rates (4.6%) makes it very appealing for crypto holders to convert to.
- The interest in NFTs from artists and art collectors are starting to migrate over to chains like XTZ ever since gas-fees started to get out of control on the ETH ecosystems - time will tell if the Consensys "Merge" in August will have developers and artists return but for now, Tezos and other layer 2s are taking advantage of the lull and pulling ahead.
Long-term investors look for projects that seem to thrive during the "tough times", and it seems like XTZ is performing exactly right now. It's a project worth paying attention to, either way. 🚀👨🏻🚀🛸
Reasons for Crypto-Optimism During the Next RecessionMade a list of a few things for crypto holders to be optimistic about the recession/depression about to unfold in the global markets right now.
- Crypto's market cap is less than 1% (possibly even less than 0.1%) of traditional stocks. If the stock market goes down,
- Banks are taking their time raising interest rates on savings accounts while pushing mortgage and loan rates up at the same time. This will make staking rewards (XTZ- 4.6%, ETH - 3.65%) look appealing.
- The 2008 recession coincides with a period where tech companies (Apple, Google, Facebook, Microsoft) took over the charts of the Fortune 500. We're likely to see a similar thing happen again - crypto is the industry most positioned to be in that category right now.
- Ponzi schemes exist in traditional markets too, and we're going to see Bernie Madoff-esque figures emerge as the market starts to dip. Madoff was able to keep his racket going for over 20 years just because the stock market kept on going up and up. When that stops, the scams will too. (Many of these practices have been "legalized" in the finance worlds at this point, but it won't change the fact that people will lose money and there will be a backlash against that.) This will further erode trust in the traditional markets as a whole.
People generally don't do research unless they're forced to, but the economic slowdown may force a lot of people to look further into the details out there. This generally works in favor of crypto assets since what they offer now is just a better deal for most people out there.
XTZ TEZOS USD : BOTTOM IS IN BOUNCE OFF MAJOR SUPPORT $14 - $22XTZ Tezos USD had broken below the long time rising trend line area of support, breaking down out of the ascending broadening wedge thats been going on for the past few years. I believe the correction is over and this is a fantastic buying opportunity for XTZ. It corrected close to 50% from the initial break of the wedge, which is a typical and common percentage correction after breaking this pattern before reversing back to the upside. I see a target of about $14 dollars minimum by June of 2023, and at that time we will revisit XTZ and see if it has the strength to break the upper trend line of the wedge and have an even more massive run to $20 - $25 and use the upper trend line as support for the next run! Indicators are also pointing towards a nice run up, MACD, STOCH RSI, and BBWP.
Also the USA government is signing executive orders to regulate this space, along with handle the major power consumption that proof of work coins are using. They will probably suggest proof of stake because it uses virtually no real power. At that time BTC may have to switch to proof of stake or another proof method for validating blocks. I think that proof of stake coins are going to be the next major go to. ETH may have seen this coming and hence why they switched to proof of stake? ETH may overtake BTC if and when that happens.
If we do end up breaking down however below the current support then we will probably go all the way down to the next major support line to about $.30 cents or so. I dont think that will happen because I believe the bottom is in in the majority of the crypto market as a whole. If we do end up going into a multi year bear market then XTZ will probably break down to that low of 30 cents. I don't believe that is the case though, especially because I have been in crypto for a long time and I know what to look for in market bottoms and I don't mean just charts, and this almost identical to the last bottoms I have been through!
This is not financial advice!
#Tezos adds 30% from 2022 lows, will XTZ Hold above $1.75?Past Performance of Tezos
Tezos prices are retracing from recent highs, reading from the performance in the daily chart. Although there were hints of strength, the failure of bulls to push prices above $2.20, or last week’s highs, should be a concern. Technically, sellers have the upper hand provided prices are below $2.2, the immediate resistance line, from a top down analysis.
#Tezos Technical Analysis
Technically, the current XTZ coin formation favors bulls following gains above the middle BB. At spot rates, XTZ is up 30 percent from 2022 lows. Even so, sellers are in control from a top-down analysis as previously mentioned. This is because XTZ prices are still inside the May 9 to 12 trade range despite gains from May 12. Unless there is a firm close above $2.20 and May 9 highs, the current expansion could be an attempt for a retest. In that regard, aggressive traders may accumulate on pullbacks as long as prices are above $1.75.
What to Expect from #XTZ?
Prices are recovering after sharp losses from early April, which saw Tezos plunge by 64 percent. Although bulls are confident, the path of least resistance is southwards in the short-term. Still, there could be an opportunity for bulls in the immediate term provided prices trade above $1.75, in continuation of the recent trend in a welcomed retest of $2.57.
Resistance level to watch out for: $2.20
Support level to watch out for: $1.75
Disclaimer: Opinions expressed are not investment advice. Do your research.
📈XTZ: pullback and trap by the whales! Should you open a long?📊Tezos (XTZ) looks stronger than the most of altcoins. After the fall, it almost didn't consolidate and started to grow, which shows high demand.
But a local pullback is possible. How will it happen?
📊The price is now in a triangle and a pullback is possible under the lower boundary of this triangle in order to collect liquidity (stop losses) of long traders below key level $1.76. False breakout return the price in the triangle zone and make short traders, who will open shorts on a breakdown, push the price higher and higher, closing their losing trades.
🚩It's essential to look at volumes. Exactly on the volume indicator we can see the confirmation of our idea. The growth of volumes will show that a large number of trades have been made, which means there is interest from a big player.
✅The first target will be the key level of $2.88.
💻Friends, press the "like"👍 button, write comments and share with your friends - it will be the best THANK YOU.
P.S. Personally, I open an entry if the price shows it according to my strategy.
Always do your analysis before making a trade.
Proof-of-Stake Coins Are Now Winning Web3. Can Bitcoin Survive?Along with the "decoupling" event that happened on Friday, Ethereum's announcement of the ETH2/Consensys/Merge coming up in August is likely to create some waves in the crypto space as the date approaches - not only will it affect the ETH ecosystem itself, there's a chance that it could have significant ripple effects on the tokens minted on top of it as well.
Over the years there has been, however, a general trend towards Proof-of-Stake systems gaining more favorability, especially among DeFi projects - because of its greater efficiency and ease of use. After the merge, Bitcoin may be the only project left on the charts that is using the Proof-of-Work model - what does this mean for Web3 and crypto spaces longer term?