Transdigm short term bull ScenarioTransdigm has established an upward channel after a run which actually resembles a bull flag on higher timeframes. For now, this move will be a short term gainer. If this plays out, it could also possibly invalidate the higher timeframe bull flag and simple be moving up a bullish channel.
Transdigm has had a pattern last 2 years of a midterm fall between Q3 and the following Q1, but prior to this last 2 years, we haven't seen this pattern. Also, their fiscal year ended a few days ago and it seems things are going very well.
This company has exceeded profit expectations consistently for years. They focus on aftermarket product manufacture which as higher margins and tend to outperform OEM products during industry downturns. They are the only supplier of more than 75% of products they sell, which allows them to control their margins. This can be reflected in their acquisition model as they acquired Kirkhill and Extant in March, 2018.
***Any information represented here is my opinion only and not intended to be used for financial gain. None of the information posted here is to be considered financial advice. Information posted here is strictly for entertainment purposes only. Please consult your financial professional before making any kind of investment. Investments can be very risky and any investor should educate themselves before investing by enlisting the help of a licensed financial professional. Past results are not indicative of future results in any construable way.***
TGD
A Virtual Long Call Option on Gold with TGDTGD came up in my Deep Value screeners as one of the highest ranked companies in the screener, so I took a look to see what they were about. Timmins Gold Corp is obviously a gold mining company, so right away I knew their success or demise was closely tied to whatever the price of gold did. Before going into the fundamentals, let's take a look at the charts.
Since late January of this year, TGD has been consolidating nicely around the 0.35 - 0.42 price levels. I liked the length of the consolidation, and the overall chart seemed pretty well set up for a high run breakout if the price action dictated. Liking the chart, I headed over to check out the fundamentals of this company to see if there could be any substance to the breakout, or if the breakout would even be justified.
TGD is trading at 3.77 times earnings, 0.94 times book value, and is trading 3.59 times its free cash flow. Not bad ratios, and it clearly makes this a deep value play within the gold sector. Taking a look at some of the return percentages for the company I was pleased to find that TGD had an Operating Margin of 30%, ROA of 20%, ROC of 25%, and a 21% ROI. Pretty impressive. Next, I took a look at their cash positions, because I love investing in companies with a ton of cash (RGR is a perfect example of this idea of tons of cash, no debt, and it paying off). TGD's Current Ratio is 3.01, more than enough cash to cover its debts.
Taking everything into consideration, this is virtually a long call option on the price of gold without the theta (time decay). I am looking for it to break that consolidation pattern, perhaps the 0.46 price level, at which I would go long, and place my stop right below the consolidation pattern at 0.30. Once again, I want to stress that although the company appears to be solid fundamentally, they are very correlated to whatever the price of Gold does. If gold goes south, TGD will most likely follow. However, if you're long term bullish on the price of gold like I am, this could be a way to expose yourself to gold without having to invest purely in gold or gold futures.
As always, critiquing and disagreements on my theses are encouraged.
All the best,
RC