TGOD AnalysisChart painting from the early 21st century, artist Maxi Scalibusa. No investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. This is entertainment.
Start 0.39 CAD
TGOD
The Green Organic Dutchman - Negative DivergenceNegative Divergence on 26 May
RSI and Stochastics are bearish
Next support at $0.44
TGOD.WS ARE 3X UNDERVALUED TGOD.WT ARE 13X OVERVALUED TGOD.WT ARE 13X OVERVALUED
TGOD.WS ARE 3X UNDERVALUED
There are a few different variables one can use to price Warrants, most important ones being Intrinsic Value & Time Premium.
INTRINSIC VALUE (IV) = Share price - Strike price
TGOD.WS (IV) = .5 - 1 = -.50$
TGOD.WT (IV) = .5 - 3 = -2.50$
The intrinsic value for both is out of the money but they trade above 0$ this is because we are paying for the Time Premium (TP), so lets calculate what thats costing.
TIME PREMIUM (TP) = IV + Market Val of Warrants {use absolute value for IV if out of money}
TGOD.WS (TP) = .5 + .085 = .585$ (for 3 years)
TGOD.WT (TP) = 2.5 + .08 = 2.58$ (for 1 year)
Now lets calculate the premium we are paying annually
TGOD.WS = .585/3 = .195$
TGOD.WT = 2.58/1 = 2.58$
2.58/.195 = 13
Simply put, we are paying 13x more for the same time premium when buying WT warrants
The Green Organic DutchmanThe stock rallied strongly today after the announcement of a major partnership between TGOD and Shoppers Drug Mart (large Canadian retail pharmacy chain). A shooting star candle appeared later during the day today with high volumes, which indicated a strong bearish signal.
A breakout over $0.64 is not likely in the very short term, unless large volumes pick up in the coming days.
This is a great company with very little long term debt and bank's support (important credit facility announced recently) with a long-term strong ramping-up production forecasts. Company has one large facility in Quebec and another under-construction facility in Ontario.
We are at a turning point TORONTO, May 19, 2020 /PRNewswire/ - The Green Organic Dutchman Holdings Ltd. (the "Company" or "TGOD") (TSX:TGOD) (US:TGODF), a leading producer of premium certified organic cannabis, is pleased to announce that it has signed a supply agreement with Medical Cannabis by Shoppers™ ("Shoppers"), a subsidiary of Shoppers Drug Mart Inc., making their certified organic medical cannabis products available via the Shoppers online medical cannabis sales platform.
"We're thrilled to partner with Canada's largest pharmacy network, bringing together TGOD's unique expertise in developing high-quality certified organic cannabis products and Shoppers' unmatched national reach," commented Robert Gora, Vice President of Sales at TGOD. "We share their vision of facilitating access to medical cannabis for patients across Canada," added Gora.
Under the terms of the agreement, TGOD will provide Shoppers with a broad portfolio of certified organic medical cannabis products, including its latest 2.0 offering such as Infusers (dissolvable powder), teas and vapes. The agreement is for a three-year term with a renewal clause for an additional two year
Where I think we are in the Cyclelast year when we touched a new 52wl the bullish rsi divergence was broken, but shortly recovered and remained on its path the stock gained 175% towards earnings. Could repeat imo. Not investment advice
TGODI think earnings will surprise us..... also this->
"With a more conscious/smart consumer and the fact that were not just ingesting but burning these chemicals TGOD will carve out a nice piece of the market for itself, a piece of the market that statistically has more disposable income and is willing to pay for quality."
Here is a list of 90 some chemicals allowed in products through the legal channels. :/
ingredient Limits of Quantification in parts per million
Product type: Fresh cannabis
Abamectin 0.25 0.1 0.25
Acephate 0.05 0.02 0.05
Acequinocyl 0.05 0.03 Footnote*
Acetamiprid 0.05 0.1 0.05
Aldicarb 0.5 1 0.5
Allethrin 0.1 0.2 0.1
Azadirachtin 0.5 1 0.5
Azoxystrobin 0.01 0.02 0.01
Benzovindiflupyr 0.01 0.02 0.01
Bifenazate 0.05 0.02 0.01
Bifenthrin 0.1 1 Footnote*
Boscalid 0.01 0.02 0.01
Buprofezin 0.01 0.02 Footnote*
Carbaryl 0.025 0.05 0.025
Carbofuran 0.01 0.02 0.01
Chlorantraniliprole 0.01 0.02 Footnote*
Chlorphenapyr 0.1 0.05 1.5
Chlorpyrifos 0.01 0.04 0.5
Clofentezine 0.01 0.02 0.01
Clothianidin 0.025 0.05 0.025
Coumaphos 0.01 0.02 0.01
Cyantraniliprole 0.01 0.02 0.01
Cyfluthrin 1 0.2 Footnote*
Cypermethrin 1 0.3 Footnote*
Cyprodinil 0.25 0.25 0.01
Daminozide 0.05 0.1 Footnote*
Deltamethrin 1 0.5 Footnote*
Diazinon 0.01 0.02 Footnote*
Dichlorvos 0.05 0.1 0.05
Dimethoate 0.01 0.02 0.01
Dimethomorph 0.05 0.05 Footnote*
Dinotefuran 0.05 0.1 0.05
Dodemorph 0.05 0.05 Footnote*
Endosulfan sulfate 0.5 0.05 2.5
Endosulfan-alpha 0.1 0.2 2.5
Endosulfan-beta 0.5 0.05 2.5
Ethoprophos 0.01 0.02 0.01
Etofenprox 0.01 0.05 Footnote*
Etoxazole 0.01 0.02 Footnote*
Etridiazole 0.01 0.03 0.15
Fenoxycarb 0.01 0.02 0.01
Fenpyroximate 0.02 0.02 Footnote*
Fensulfothion 0.01 0.02 0.01
Fenthion 0.01 0.02 0.01
Fenvalerate 0.1 0.1 Footnote*
Fipronil 0.01 0.06 0.01
Flonicamid 0.025 0.05 0.025
Fludioxonil 0.01 0.02 0.01
Fluopyram 0.01 0.02 0.01
Hexythiazox 0.01 0.01 Footnote*
Imazalil 0.01 0.05 0.01
Imidacloprid 0.01 0.02 0.01
Iprodione 0.50 1 0.50
Kinoprene 0.05 0.50 1.25
Kresoxim-methyl 0.01 0.02 0.15
Malathion 0.01 0.02 0.01
Metalaxyl 0.01 0.02 0.01
Methiocarb 0.01 0.02 0.01
Methomyl 0.05 0.05 0.025
Methoprene 1 2 Footnote*
Mevinphos 0.025 0.05 0.025
MGK-264 0.05 0.05 Footnote*
Myclobutanil 0.01 0.02 0.01
Naled 0.2 0.1 Footnote*
Novaluron 0.025 0.05 0.025
Oxamyl 1.5 3.0 1.5
Paclobutrazol 0.01 0.02 0.01
Parathion-methyl 0.03 0.05 Footnote*
Permethrin 0.5 0.5 Footnote*
Phenothrin 0.025 0.05 Footnote*
Phosmet 0.01 0.02 Footnote*
Piperonyl butoxide 0.25 0.2 1.25
Pirimicarb 0.01 0.02 0.01
Prallethrin 0.05 0.05 Footnote*
Propiconazole 0.01 0.1 Footnote*
Propoxur 0.01 0.02 0.01
Pyraclostrobin 0.01 0.02 0.01
Pyrethrins 0.025 0.05 Footnote*
Pyridaben 0.025 0.05 0.02
Quintozene 0.01 0.02 Footnote*
Resmethrin 0.02 0.1 0.05
Spinetoram 0.01 0.02 0.01
Spinosad 0.01 0.1 0.01
Spirodiclofen 0.25 0.25 Footnote*
Spiromesifen 0.05 3 Footnote*
Spirotetramat 0.1 0.02 0.01
Spiroxamine 0.01 0.1 Footnote*
Tebuconazole 0.01 0.05 0.01
Tebufenozide 0.01 0.02 0.01
Teflubenzuron 0.025 0.05 0.025
Tetrachlorvinphos 0.01 0.02 0.01
Tetramethrin 0.05 0.1 Footnote*
Thiacloprid 0.01 0.02 0.01
Thiamethoxam 0.01 0.02 0.01
Thiophanate-methyl 0.03 0.05 Footnote*
Trifloxystrobin 0.01 0.02 0.01
Warrants On Sale :)
Here is a breakdown I did of the relative cost of warrants (RCW) in respect to cost of SP (3$ to exercise Warrants)
Shares VS Warrants %RCW
$10.24 $3.51 34.3%
$5.81 $2.76 47.4%
$4.63 $2.34 50.4%
$3.69 $1.71 46%
$2.65 $1.05 39.6%
$0.75 $0.21 28%
Todays Sale Dec 19
$0.74 $0.17 22% (If you're converting S -> W today is one of the best days to do so)
If you analyze this and actually graph it you get a bell curve, this means that when the SP is low or high the relative cost of warrants is low and when the SP is in between ATH & ATL the the relative cost of warrants is much higher.
Do what you do with this data, I already said too much. IMO
Have a freakin gr8 d3y
Aurora dump potentially creating buying opportunityFirst Daily was broken only by few pennies, but I don't believe it will hold
Would start scaling in on last 3 supports with ideally Daily oversold RSI
I lost 3k on TGOD before, as I had a long term position. Was watching it bounce from 2 dollar range already a few times.
Also, I think without Aurora ownership TGOD is better off.
Not a financial advice.
My own thoughts for personal reference.
$TGOD $TGODF Prime Rebound Play For Cannabis InvestorsWhile cannabis stocks have been in bear run for the past few months, we believe that a trend change is due.
With that being said. you want to own the best names in the business. $TGOD $TGODF is one of those must-own cannabis stocks.
About The Green Organic Dutchman Holdings Ltd.
The Green Organic Dutchman Holdings Ltd. (TGOD.TO) (TGODF) is a publicly traded, premium global organic cannabis company, with operations focused on medical cannabis markets in Canada, Europe, the Caribbean and Latin America, as well as the Canadian adult-use market. TGOD also has organic hemp CBD oil operations in Canada, and through its wholly owned subsidiary HemPoland distributes premium hemp CBD oil in the EU. The Company grows high quality, certified organic cannabis with sustainable, all-natural principles. TGOD's products are laboratory tested to ensure patients have access to a standardized, safe and consistent product. TGOD has a planned capacity of 219,000 kgs and is building 1,643,600 sq. ft. of cultivation and processing facilities across Ontario, Quebec, Jamaica and Denmark.
As always, use protective stops and trade with caution.
Good luck to all!
TGOD - Breakout ?TSX:TGOD is looking like it's about to breakout from a triangle formation. Plus that renewal with Health Canada. Let's wait for confirmation and see what happen.
Is 3.13ish going to hold for a double bottom?Or, is more pain ahead for TGOD in what appears to be another descending triangle!
TGOD is down roughly 60% from its ATH's.
TGOD is down -52% in the past year.
TGOD +32% YTD
All Time Performance for TGOD -42.33%
Price target of 35c!
Time will tell per usual
TGODT GOD LOOKING BULLISH HERE , JUST BROKE OUT OF DOWNTREND ON NEWS THAT THEY GOT OIL PRODUCING LICENCE FROM HEALTH CANADA !!!
Everything posted on chart
Weed - RSI Overbought, hitting previous resistance at $65Weed - RSI Overbought, hitting previous resistance at $65. I was wrong with my short at $58 level. Short interest went up 4x from jan 1-16th, shortdata.ca. Earnings is Feb 14th, so I am on sidelines and will wait post ER. If spy breaks over 270 next week, weed can go higher! FOMC is Jan 30th. Holding $TGOD shares from 2.99. Safe trading!
Weed - Hit .618 Fib level, pull back on 4 hour chart to $55Weed - Hit .618 Fib level, pull back for higher low. Look for back test $54.62 on 4 hour chart as support. RSI overbought, good news about hemp facility in NY. I will wait for support level to buy more shares. Picked up some TGOD for long hold last week at $2.99. Good luck!
TGOD - BREAK UP or DOWNDear Traders,
Let's have a look at TGOD.
Price dropped like a dead mouse before, but TGOD did create a nice bounce which I predicted in my previous TGOD TA.
Now the question is will it create another run, or will it drop to a lower low.
Looking at the chart and the indicators there is more reason for it to drop then to break out if i'm being really honest here. RSI shows bears are in control, so does the MACD Histogram. Price action should break above 3.71C$ in order to show that the bulls have taken over power. However, if the bulls can't maintain to support at 2.98C$, then we will see another drop to around 2.84C$ and if that doesn't hold, 2.45C$.
Let's see how this will playout on Monday. Really good news would enable the bulls to breakout, but without news, and with the sector falling, TGOD might see another drop sooner than expected.
Keep your eyes on the charts!
If you have any questions or any thoughts, feel free send me a PM or to comment on this TA!
If you'd like to join my Discord Channel to talk about stocks, share knowledge and have a laugh then please send me a PM so that I can link you to it!
Take care!
HEXO - Looking BearishDear Traders,
For those who want to make a nice gain with a short position, you found your target!
Hexo announced in the papers that there will be delays due to a lack of inventory.
In other words = they have a shortage of product = Bearish News!
Friday shows a red candle going through the 100 Moving Average (6.24C$) meaning support didn't hold, and the next support will be located around 5.69C$, 5.22C$ (200 ma) and 5.08C$.
Let's see how this will play out on Monday. But Bears took control.
Keep your eyes on the charts!
If you have any questions or any thoughts, feel free send me a PM or to comment on this TA!
If you'd like to join my Discord Channel to talk about stocks, share knowledge and have a laugh then please send me a PM so that I can link you to it!
Take care!
ORGANIGRAM - Back to the buy zone?Dear Traders,
As we can see on the chart, Organigram's Bears were in control.
Bulls did form some kind of Buy Area, located around 5.18C$, the 200 moving average indicator.
A comeback into the buy zone wouldn't shock me, just to shake out those last bear hands, and to head up higher? Or will the bulls fail to take control and the price will drop under 5C$?
Looking at the chart right now it looks like the bears are still in control.
Keep your eyes on the charts!
If you have any questions or any thoughts, feel free send me a PM or to comment on this TA!
If you'd like to join my Discord Channel to talk about stocks, share knowledge and have a laugh then please send me a PM so that I can link you to it!
Take care!
ACB - What's next for Aurora?Dear Traders,
ACB has been showing ups and downs the last couple of days. Earnings showed growth but a lot of investors were skeptical and that was seen in the price action.
First I'd like to start about the vol indicator on this Chart.
It shows a potential Curve, which would mean that we in exactly at the lowest point of the curve, low volume, not a lot of buying power, but not a lot of selling power either.
On the chart you see that i've drawn a big green line, that represents the bull's breakout line. if the bulls manage to push it above that line it could create a potential run to a higher resistance point, which, if that was the case, the bulls would have to break the resistance at our 55 day moving average (55 MA) located at 8.86C$, if they succeed, price action would likely go to around 9.25C$ (100 MA) and 10.58C$ after that (200 MA).
The other scenario is me thinking about that Curve previously discussed. If we were indeed at the lowest point, that means votality would be low. One thing I do know is that price drops faster than it goes up. So keeping that in mind, ACB could also drop lower.
Our Support are is located around 7.93C$. Bulls need to manage to keep the price above it in order to stay bullish. If they fail, we might see a drop to around 7.24C$.
Let's see how this will playout on Monday.
Keep your eyes on the charts!
If you have any questions or any thoughts, feel free send me a PM or to comment on this TA!
If you'd like to join my Discord Channel to talk about stocks, share knowledge and have a laugh then please send me a PM so that I can link you to it!
Take care!