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TGT

This $TGT Chart Signals Trouble...Shares of Target Corp $TGT are signaling a strong sell. Just two weeks ago, the stock chart put in multiple topping tails showing major distribution but big money. As the S&P hit new all-time highs over the past week, Target shares fell. In the last few days, those same tail formations are beginning again, signaling more distribution. It is likely Target Corp will start to break lower in the coming days, headed for the $80 target. Note the chart...
NYSE:TGTShort
by InTheMoney_Stocks
Not Yet Oversold But Stock Market Makes An Important LowAT40 = 23.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 24.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (new 32-month low) VIX = 22.5 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary The technical damage continues in the stock market. Amid all the carnage and massive gap downs, I am surprised AT40 (T2108), the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) is still above the threshold for oversold trading conditions (20%). My favorite technical indicator closed at 23.4%. In the last oversold period, T2108 closed as low as 9.7%. {AT40 (T2108) lost 6 percentage points and closed just above oversold territory.} While the stock market is not technically oversold, AT200 (T2107), the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 200DMAs, closed below its lows from October. AT200 hit a new 32-month low and a new extreme (note that AT200 dropped to the single digits during the early 2016 sell-off). This important low means that money managers are once again looking at broad damage in their portfolios. A large share of those stocks are trading in bearish territory and look like sells into the next rally. AT200’s return to these levels confirms the lasting technical damage slamming the stock market. {AT200 (T2107) sliced right through the closing lows of October as technical damage spreads again in the stock market.} The charts of the major indices say plenty. The S&P 500 (SPY) lost 1.8% and closed exactly at the October low and the low of the last oversold cycle. The index is down 1.2% year-to-date. The NASDAQ lost 1.7% to close at a 7-month low and is now flat year-to-date. The Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) lost 1.8% to close at its own 7-month low. QQQ is still UP 2.2% year-to-date. {The S&P 500 (SPY) lost 1.8% on the worst gap down of the past 6 weeks of weakness. An attempted gap fill was beaten back down by sellers.} {The NASDAQ lost 1.7% on a gap down that established a worse level of weakness for the tech-laden index.} {The Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) lost 1.8% on a bearish gap down and a successful fade of an attempted gap fill.} The volatility index, the VIX gained 11.8% to close at 22.5. The VIX surprisingly is not already back to its highs from the previous oversold periods. If someone told me about the large gap downs the market experienced on the day, I would have assumed the VIX was soaring right past the previous highs. {The volatility index, the VIX, is on the rise again and is right back to elevated levels (above 20).} The Australian dollar (FXA) versus the Japanese yen (FXY) is, surprisingly, nowhere near its recent low. Combined with AT40 versus AT200 and the VIX, this positioning tempts me to think that the stock market is near a low for this latest selling cycle. Note that part of the lift is coming from recent bullish economic news. {AUD/JPY is clinging to its 200DMA and is still well off its recent lows.} The stock market is in desperate need of positive catalysts to break out of this cycle of selling. While the relative gulf between AT200 on one side and AT40 and the VIX on the other side looks like a potential kind of bullish divergence, I am keeping the short-term trading call at neutral. I downgraded all the way from bullish to neutral because of the 200DMA breakdown for the S&P 500. Today’s selling just confirmed that trading call. I am assuming the healing process for this technical damage needs to happen in oversold territory. By trading rule, I will flip back to bullish if AT40 drops below 20%.
SP:SPX
by drduru
TGT, BBY Earnings: Retail Brick & Mortar Topping Patterns Target and Best Buy reported earnings today and their stock values fell, TGT worse than BBY. The retail brick and mortar stores are the last group to report each season. The ubiquitous AMZN has put most of this type of store at risk of total displacement as consumers prefer the ease and speed of online shopping over driving to a store. Technical patterns are even more important in a downtrend as the 3 primary market participant groups that sell short are technically oriented rather than fundamentalist or emotional buyers or sellers. Study both weekly and daily charts before you choose stocks to sell short, in order to calculate potential support bounce levels, and to anticipate how far a stock can drop. This is one of the newer topping formations that developed in the past few years as the market became fully automated for the Institutions.
NYSE:TGT
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
ASNA most likely to mirror back to $8 and then $15 in ~12 monthsArticle Link: aicody.com ASNA is a long-established ecommerce and store retailer, which appears to be solidly back in the competition in such a highly competitive space wherein companies often face operational challenges such as Sears, forced to be merged or acquired such as Versace, or go out of business. However, ASNA's recent financial statements, 57 years of operations, sales concentration on fashion-forward women, geographical center of attention in the U.S., Canada, and Puerto Rico, and recent rent reduction plans for its unnecessary stores are the fundamental forces for cost reduction, which is the sole key to profitability and scalability in this sector. Thus, we hold reasons to believe that ASNA's stocks currently project plus buy and double plus hold ratings suitable for both trade and investment purposes. Company Summary Ascena Retail Group, Inc. (ASNA) is an ecommerce and store retailer in the US, Canada and Puerto Rico, offering apparel, shoes, and accessories for women via the Premium Fashion segment (Ann Taylor, LOFT, and Lou & Grey), Value Fashion segment (maurices and dressbarn), Plus Fashion segment (Lane Bryant, Catherines and Cacique), and for tween girls via the Kids Fashion segment (Justice). ASNA operates ~4,600 stores and the following domains: AnnTaylor.com ascenaretail.com Catherines.com dressbarn.com factory.anntaylor.com lanebryant.com LOFT.com louandgrey.com maurices.com outlet.loft.com shopjustice.com Institutional Shareholders BlackRock Fund Advisors: 22.7M (11.57%) reported on 06/30/18 Charles Schwab Investment Management, Inc.: 6.1M (3.1%) reported on 06/30/18 Dimensional Fund Advisors LP: 16.4M (8.37%) reported on 06/30/18 Nomura Securities Co., Ltd. (Private Banking): 17M 8.67% reported on 06/30/18 PRIMECAP Management Co.: 9.2M (4.67%) reported on 06/30/18 Renaissance Technologies LLC: 4.7M (2.38%) reported on 06/30/18 Sapience Investments LLC: 4.1M (2.08%) reported on 06/30/18 SSgA Funds Management, Inc.: 4.8M (2.45%) reported on 06/30/18 Stadium Capital Management LLC: 19.2M (9.8%) reported on 06/30/18 The Vanguard Group, Inc.: 15.7M (8.02%) reported on 06/30/18 Mutual Funds Shareholders DFA US Small Cap Value Portfolio: 5.02M (2.56%) reported on 04/30/18 iShares Core S&P Small Cap ETF: 9.58M (4.88%) reported on 09/6/18 iShares Russell 2000 ETF: 3.67M (1.87%) reported on 09/6/18 iShares S&P Small Cap 600 Value ETF: 2.72M (1.39%) reported on 09/6/18 PRIMECAP Odyssey Stock Fund: 4.1M (2.09%) reported on 06/30/18 Schwab Fundamental US Small Company Index ETF: 3.46M (1.76%) reported on 09/6/18 Vanguard Extended Market Index Fund: 2.27M (1.16%) reported on 08/31/18 Vanguard Small Cap Index Fund: 4.21M (2.15%) reported on 08/31/18 Vanguard Small Cap Value Index Fund: 2.63M (1.34%) reported on 08/31/18 Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund: 4.15M (2.11%) reported on 08/31/18 Financial Summary For the fourth quarter of Fiscal 2018, ASNA reported GAAP income of $0.17 per diluted share compared to a GAAP loss of $0.08 per diluted share in the year-ago period, based on a 4% comparable sales increase and the benefit of an additional week related to ASNA's fiscal calendar. For the fourth quarter of Fiscal 2018, ASNA reported adjusted earnings of $0.07 per diluted share compared to adjusted earnings of $0.05 per diluted share in the year-ago period. For full year Fiscal 2018, ASNA reported a GAAP loss of $0.20 per diluted share reflecting a comparable sales decline of 2% and costs associated with ASNA's Change for Growth transformation program, partially offset by the benefit of the additional week. ASNA reported a GAAP loss of $5.48 per diluted share in the year-ago period which included a non-cash pre-tax impairment charge of $1.324B to write down a portion of ASNA's intangible assets. Adjusted earnings for 2018 were a loss of $0.02 per diluted share compared to adjusted earnings of $0.22 per diluted share in the year-ago period. Sales Net sales for the fourth quarter of Fiscal 2018 were $1,766M compared to $1,658M in the year-ago period, with the increase caused by a 4% increase in comparable sales and ~$88M of sales associated with the additional week. Growth Margin Gross margin increased to $1.01B, or 57.5% of sales, for the fourth quarter of Fiscal 2018 compared to $0.95B, or 57.4% of sales in the year-ago period. Gross margin increased from the year-ago period due to increased comparable sales and ~$50M associated with the additional week. Gross margin rate increased 10 basis points, with strong rate improvement at our Premium Fashion and Kids Fashion segments mostly offset by declines at our Plus Fashion and Value Fashion segments. In our Plus Fashion segment, merchandise margin increased from the year-ago period, reflecting improving assortment performance and disciplined inventory management, with the offset caused primarily by higher freight expense resulting from increased digital penetration. The decline in our Value Fashion segment was caused primarily by lower clearance price points at dressbarn. Distributions Buying, distribution, and occupancy (“BD&O”) expenses for the fourth quarter of Fiscal 2018 increased to $324M, which represented 18.4% of sales, compared to $320M, or 19.3% of sales in the year-ago period and included ~$3M of expense associated with the additional week. In terms of dollars, lower occupancy expenses resulting from our fleet optimization program were more than offset by higher variable distribution costs related to the increased penetration of our direct channel business and the expenses associated with the additional week. General and Administrative Selling, general, and administrative (“SG&A”) expenses for the fourth quarter of Fiscal 2018 increased 5% to $527M, or 29.8% of sales, compared to $500M, or 30.1% of sales in the year-ago period. The increase in SG&A expenses was primarily due to $18M of expense associated with the additional week, inflationary increases and higher performance-based compensation, offset in part by ~$30M in synergies and cost reduction initiatives. Operating Loss Operating income for the fourth quarter of Fiscal 2018 was $53M compared to an operating loss of $9M in the year-ago period. The increase in the current year primarily reflects the impact of the additional week, which generated ~$30M, lower costs associated with the Change for Growth transformation program as well as lower acquisition-related costs. On a non-GAAP adjusted basis, operating income was $43M in the fourth quarter of Fiscal 2018, compared to $44M in the year ago period as the growth from the comparable sales increase and the impact of the cost savings initiatives were offset by inflationary increases and higher performance-based compensation. Net Income ASNA reported Net income of $33M, or $0.17 per diluted share in the fourth quarter of Fiscal 2018, compared to a net loss of $16M, or $0.08 per diluted share, in the year-ago period. 2018 Q1 Financial Highlights ASNA ended the fourth quarter of Fiscal 2018 with Cash and cash equivalents of $239M. ASNA ended the fourth quarter of Fiscal 2018 with inventory of $623M, down 3% from the year-ago period. Capital expenditures totaled $54M in the fourth quarter of Fiscal 2018, primarily to support new capabilities and strategic initiatives. Full year Fiscal 2018 capital expenditures totaled $181M. ASNA ended the fourth quarter of Fiscal 2018 with total debt of $1,372M, which represents the balance remaining on the term loan. There were no borrowings outstanding under ASNA's revolving credit facility at the end of the fourth quarter of Fiscal 2018. In addition, ASNA had $473M of borrowing availability under its revolving credit facility. During the fourth quarter of Fiscal 2018, ASNA repaid $203M of its term loan and its next scheduled repayment is in November of calendar year 2020. Store and Rent Reductions ASNA closed a net 185 stores during Fiscal 2018 which primarily reflects its continuing fleet optimization program. Under the program, ASNA has decreased ~$50M in annualized rent reductions through landlord negotiations. ASNA's number of stores on a brand-by-brand basis from quarter third to fourth is as follows: Ann Taylor: 306 - 2 = 304 LOFT: 674 - 2 = 672 maurices: 986 - 14 = 972 dressbarn: 739 - 9 = 730 Lane Bryant: 752 - 3 = 749 (4 Closed - 1 Opened = 3) Catherines: 351 - 3 = 348 Justice: 855 - 8 = 847 Total: 4,663 - 41 = 4,622 Forward-Looking Statements for 2019 ASNA is re-instituting full year guidance and expects Fiscal 2019 full year non-GAAP earnings per share ranging from $0.00 to $0.10, supported by the following assumptions: Net sales of $6.45 to $6.55B Comparable sales up low single digits; Gross margin rate of 57.6% to 58.1%; Operating expense growth of ~1%; Depreciation and amortization of $327 to $332M; Operating income of $120 to $140M; Interest expense of ~$112M; Income taxes ~$8M reflecting a 21% tax rate and minimum taxes; and Diluted share count of 200M. Full year capital expenditures are expected in the range of $180 to $210M, and ASNA expects to close ~5% of its Fiscal 2018 year-end fleet, with store count dropping into the range of 4,375 to 4,425 by July 2019. Forward-Looking Statements for 2019 Q1 Fiscal year 2019 first quarter non-GAAP earnings per share is estimated in the range of $(0.04) to $0.06, reflecting a collective unfavorable timing impact of ~$0.10 related to the additional week in Fiscal 2018, which shifted the peak Justice back-to-school week from week 1 of Fiscal 2019 to week 52, and timing related to the adoption of the revenue recognition accounting pronouncement, Accounting Standards Update 2014-19, "Revenue from Contracts with Customers." ASNA's estimated Fiscal 2019 first quarter earnings per share outlook is supported by the following assumptions: Net sales of $1.54 to $1.56B; Comparable sales flat to up 2%; Gross margin rate of 60.0% to 60.5%; Operating expense growth of 1% to 2%; Depreciation and amortization expense of ~$84M; Operating income of $22 to $42M; Interest expense of ~$27M; Income taxes of ~$3M reflecting a 21% tax rate and minimum taxes; and Diluted share count of 200M. CEO's Comments Mr. David Jaffe commented that “Our fourth quarter reflected sequential comp improvement across all our brands, and the first enterprise-level positive comp quarter for ascena since the second quarter of Fiscal 2015. Comparable sales increased 4%, and excluding dressbarn, all brands delivered positive comps. Specific to dressbarn, we delivered a 9 percentage point sequential comparable sales improvement from our third quarter, and have fully reset the brand’s inventory position heading into Fiscal 2019. Adjusted earnings per share of 7 cents came in above our guide, and while we were pleased with progress for the quarter, it represents only the first step in our road back to realizing ascena’s full earnings potential.” Mr. Jaffe states that “We continue to make good progress across the three pillars of our Change for Growth transformation program. We remain on track to achieve $300M in annual run rate savings by July 2019, and are currently implementing the two remaining large capability-building components of our transformation program - localized planning and our customer experience management ecosystem. And as we enter Fiscal 2019, we are leveraging the foundation we’ve built over the past two years to pivot the organization toward the most critical pillar of our transformation program - reinvigorating growth from our core.” Mr. Jaffe believes that “We remain committed to realizing the full value of our brand portfolio and platform capability. At the core of future shareholder value creation is the promise of a highly differentiated and growing group of leading brands, supported by a cost efficient infrastructure. We entered Fiscal 2019 with good base momentum, and key growth initiatives beginning to gain traction across our brands. We are making headway with stabilization of our dressbarn brand, and will continue to explore opportunities across our brand portfolio to create shareholder value." Statistics Shares Outstanding: 0.2B Avg Daily Vol: 2.5M Market Cap: ~1B 52-Week High: $5.29 52-Week Low: $1.69 Forward PE: 203.4 Annual Div/Dividend Yield: 0.00% / 2.5% Annual Rev: ~7B Inst Own: 82.5% 1-Month Return: 10.9% 3-Month Return: 5.1% Next Earnings Report Date: 12/03/2018 Earnings ESP: $0.05 Revenue Per Employee: $98,759 Money Flow Ratio: 0.94 % Profitability Revenue Growth: 1.3% (Sector Average 5.2%) Gross Margin: 57.5% (Sector Average 31.9%) Return on Equity: 24.6% (Sector Average 19.8%) Net Margin: 2.0% (Sector Average 2.9%) Debt Current Ratio: 1.1 (Sector Average 1.4) Debt-to-Capital: 60.1% (Sector Average 51.0%) Interest Funding: 18.3% (Sector Average 7.5%) Interest Coverage: 0.1 (Sector Average 3.7) Dividend Dividend Growth: NA (Sector Average 1.0%) Dividend Payout: NA (Sector Average 45.7%) Dividend Coverage: NA (Sector Average 4.5) Dividend Yield: NA (Sector Average 0.0%) Top Peer Companies Abercrombie & Fitch Company (ANF) Amazon.com, Inc (AMZN) American Eagle Outfitters, Inc (AEO) Ascena Retail Group, Inc (ASNA) Buckle Inc (BKE) Cato Corporation (CATO) Citi Trends, Inc (CTRN) Dillard's Inc (DDS) DSW Inc (DSW) Etsy Inc (ETSY) Express Inc (EXPR) Five Below Inc (FIVE) Francesca's Holding Corp (FRAN) Gap Inc (GPS) Genesco Inc (GCO) J C Penney Company Inc (JCP) Kohl's Corporation (KSS) Lands End Inc (LE) Macy's Inc (M) Marks And Spencer Group PLC (MAKSY) Marui Group Co LTD (MAURY) Neiman Marcus Group, Inc (NMG) New York & Company Inc (NWY) Nordstrom Inc (JWN) Qurate Retail Inc (QRTEA) Ross Stores Inc (ROST) Sears Holdings Corp (SHLD) Sears Hometown and Outlet (SHOS) Target Corporation (TGT) Tillys Inc (TLYS) Walmart Inc (WMT) Wayfair Inc (W) Guidance 2019 Q1 Total Sales: $1.54-$1.56B Gross Margin: 60.0%-60.5% Depreciation and amortization: ~$84M Operating Income: $22-$42M Interest Expense: ~$27M Diluted Share Count: 200M EPS: $0.04-$0.06 Guidance 2019 Total Sales: $6.45-$6.55B Gross Margin: 57.6%-58.1% Depreciation and amortization: $327-$332M Operating Income: $120-$140M Interest Expense: ~$112M Diluted Share Count: 200M EPS: $0.00-$0.10 Stores: 4,375-4,425 12 Month Price Target Mean: $8.33 High: $15.01 Low: $2.18 Earnings Surprise Positive (+6.7%) Trade and Investment Ratings Ratings from strongest (+++) to weakest (---) are as follows: 60-Month Investment: +++ 36-Month Investment: ++ 12-Month Investment: + 3-Month Investment: Neutral 1-Month Investment: Neutral Single Day-Trade: Neutral Multi Day-Trade: Neutral Single Short-Term Short-Sell: Neutral Multi Short-Term Short-Sell: - Long-Term Short-Sell: --
ALong
by aicody
THE WEEK AHEAD: TGT, ANF, COST, XOP, OIH, FXIA trio of retail names, TGT, ANF, and COST announce next week ... . TGT announces on 3/6 before market open. Preliminarily, the March 16th, 11-day, 20-delta 69.5/81 short strangle pays 1.54 at the mid, with its defined risk counterpart, the 66.5/69/81/84 iron condor paying under 1/3rd the width of the wings at .83/contract, slightly shy of the credit I like to receive on those to pull the trigger. For those into the short put/acquire/cover cycle type trade (I'm going to refer to these as "spack" trades for short):* the 30 delta, March 16th 71.5 short put is paying 1.37 at the mid, which would yield a cost basis of 70.13 of any assigned shares, a discount of 6.7% over where the underlying is currently trading. ANF announces on 3/7 before market open. Given the size of the underlying, I'd probably go short straddle, with the March 16th 21 paying 3.22 at the door and its defined risk iron fly variation -- the 17/21/21/25 paying 2.56, slightly greater than 1/4 the width of the long strangle component of the setup, which is what I want to see at the least out of an iron fly. The "spack" trade: the March 16th, 30 delta 19 short put is paying .91/contract, yielding a cost basis of 18.09 in any assigned shares versus 20.68 market, a 12.5% discount. Lastly, COST announces on the 7th, after market close. The March 16th 177.5/200 short strangle is paying 2.40, with the defined risk 172.5/177.5/200/205 paying 1.21, somewhat short of 1/3rd the width of the wings. The spack trade is to sell the March 16th 182.5 for 2.31/contract which would result in a cost basis of 180.19 in assigned shares -- a 4.8% discount over where shares are currently trading. Sector-wise, the volatility remains in a familiar place, with XOP/OIH having the highest (34%). FXI (29%), XRT (27%), and XHB (26%) follow in descending order, with background implied a bit on the light side (I like >35% to bother). Depending on your thoughts about where petro is heading: The XOP April 20th 31/37 short strangle is paying 1.01 at the mid (neutral assumption); the April 20th 32 short put (bullish assumption) is paying .74 with a resulting cost basis of 31.26 (an 8.4% discount over current share price); and the Plain Jane slightly monied April 20th 34 covered call (buy shares at 34.14, sell the April 20th 34 short call) costs 32.50 to put on (a 4.8% discount over current price) (selling the April 20th 34 short put for 1.47 yields basically the same metrics). The FXI April 20th 44/51 short strangle is paying 1.41 at the mid, with the spack trade being to sell the April 20th 45 put for a .94 credit, resulting in a cost basis of 44.06 per share, a 6.8% discount over where the underlying is currently trading. * -- Generally speaking, the cycle is to: (a) Sell puts. At expiry, if price is above your strike, you keep the premium. (b) If at expiry, price is below your strike, either allow yourself to be assigned, or roll the short put out "as is" for credit and therefore further cost basis reduction. (c) On assignment, proceed to cover your shares by selling calls against at or above your cost basis in the shares, looking to exit the trade profitably.
NYSE:TGT
by NaughtyPines