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TGT

THE WEEK AHEAD: TGT, ANF, COST, XOP, OIH, FXIA trio of retail names, TGT, ANF, and COST announce next week ... . TGT announces on 3/6 before market open. Preliminarily, the March 16th, 11-day, 20-delta 69.5/81 short strangle pays 1.54 at the mid, with its defined risk counterpart, the 66.5/69/81/84 iron condor paying under 1/3rd the width of the wings at .83/contract, slightly shy of the credit I like to receive on those to pull the trigger. For those into the short put/acquire/cover cycle type trade (I'm going to refer to these as "spack" trades for short):* the 30 delta, March 16th 71.5 short put is paying 1.37 at the mid, which would yield a cost basis of 70.13 of any assigned shares, a discount of 6.7% over where the underlying is currently trading. ANF announces on 3/7 before market open. Given the size of the underlying, I'd probably go short straddle, with the March 16th 21 paying 3.22 at the door and its defined risk iron fly variation -- the 17/21/21/25 paying 2.56, slightly greater than 1/4 the width of the long strangle component of the setup, which is what I want to see at the least out of an iron fly. The "spack" trade: the March 16th, 30 delta 19 short put is paying .91/contract, yielding a cost basis of 18.09 in any assigned shares versus 20.68 market, a 12.5% discount. Lastly, COST announces on the 7th, after market close. The March 16th 177.5/200 short strangle is paying 2.40, with the defined risk 172.5/177.5/200/205 paying 1.21, somewhat short of 1/3rd the width of the wings. The spack trade is to sell the March 16th 182.5 for 2.31/contract which would result in a cost basis of 180.19 in assigned shares -- a 4.8% discount over where shares are currently trading. Sector-wise, the volatility remains in a familiar place, with XOP/OIH having the highest (34%). FXI (29%), XRT (27%), and XHB (26%) follow in descending order, with background implied a bit on the light side (I like >35% to bother). Depending on your thoughts about where petro is heading: The XOP April 20th 31/37 short strangle is paying 1.01 at the mid (neutral assumption); the April 20th 32 short put (bullish assumption) is paying .74 with a resulting cost basis of 31.26 (an 8.4% discount over current share price); and the Plain Jane slightly monied April 20th 34 covered call (buy shares at 34.14, sell the April 20th 34 short call) costs 32.50 to put on (a 4.8% discount over current price) (selling the April 20th 34 short put for 1.47 yields basically the same metrics). The FXI April 20th 44/51 short strangle is paying 1.41 at the mid, with the spack trade being to sell the April 20th 45 put for a .94 credit, resulting in a cost basis of 44.06 per share, a 6.8% discount over where the underlying is currently trading. * -- Generally speaking, the cycle is to: (a) Sell puts. At expiry, if price is above your strike, you keep the premium. (b) If at expiry, price is below your strike, either allow yourself to be assigned, or roll the short put out "as is" for credit and therefore further cost basis reduction. (c) On assignment, proceed to cover your shares by selling calls against at or above your cost basis in the shares, looking to exit the trade profitably.
NYSE:TGT
by NaughtyPines
THE WEEK AHEAD: HD, CSCO, TGT, BBY, WMT, GPS, AMAT EARNINGSWe have bevvy of retail earnings announcements next week as the full season tapers off: HD announces earnings on Tuesday before market open with a background implied volatility of 23% (top quarter of 52-week range). CSCO -- Wednesday before market open with a background of 27 (near 52-week high). TGT -- Wednesday before market open, at 36 (top quarter of 52-week range). BBY -- Thursday, before market open, at 53 (near 52-week high). WMT -- Thursday, before market open, at 25 (near 52-week high). GPS -- Thursday, after market close, at 44 (above middle, but below top quarter of 52-week range). AMAT -- Thursday, after market close, at 41 (near 52-week high). I generally prefer playing earnings where the background volatility exceeds 50%, and it's in the top-quarter of its 52-week range, implying that the best candidate for an earnings contraction play would be BBY with AMAT close behind/worth watching for an increase in implied volatility running into the announcement. Broad-market exchange-traded fund-wise, there isn't much to play: the Brazilian exchange-traded fund continues to print implied volatility percentages at or above 30% (currently, 35-ish), followed by the petro exchange-traded fund, XOP (34). For non-earnings individuals, TEVA (72/upper end of its 52-week range) continues to garner my attention, along with CTL (56), which -- post-earnings -- maintains high volatility. The majors -- well, there isn't much to look at. IWM leads with a background implied of 16, which is basically tied with the QQQ's at 16. SPY comes in at a paltry 13 ... . On the volatility product front, the first /VX future trading at or above 16 is out in May (184 DTE), meaning that a <90 DTE VIX Term Structure trade isn't in the offing for me. However, the VXST/VIX ratio finished Friday's session somewhat elevated (.92), so it's worth keeping an eye out for any >1.00 pops in which to consider Contango Drift trades, particularly as we wind into a rollover with VIX spot trading at 11.29 relative to the Nov contract's 11.60 (2 DTE).
NYSE:HD
by NaughtyPines
Sell TGT Iron Condor May 52.5/47.5P, 58.5/62.5CTGT is having earning call on May 17, the same day as the May option expiration. I expect TGT will go side way before then. So I setup the Iron Condor to catch some money before then. Aim to close the position before May 17th. drive.google.com Positoin: Put: -1x52.5/1x47.5 Call: -1*58.5/1x62.5 Breakeven: 51.67 to 59.33 PoP: 72% Premium: 0.8$ Target Goal: 0.4$ (50% of the premium). This position is to be closed before May 17th, the earning date.
NYSE:TGT
by rockgy
Long-term view on TGT- Weekly ChartTarget has really taken a beating lately, primarily due to them losing market share to the mammoth Amazon. With the most resent earnings, TGT has broken down below what had been downward sloping support. My expectation is we will have a slight sell off early this week (week of 4/3/2017) but will ultimately retest the line that had been support, but will now be resistance, which should occur around TGT $61.50 area. In my view, TGT will then trade sideways/down and eventually break-down with speed to ultimately hit $43.60's area, or the 1.414 fib level. The timing lines up with my view of the overall market and also is a point where TGT will be hitting long-term support. Not a huge fan of retailers dwindling in market share but if this does occur, it may set up for a nice buy given their decent dividend and at that price it would be considered cheap. In summary, in my view, you can buy now for the short-term bounce to $61 but you don't want to be holding this stock once it reaches that level!! Wait to buy Early/Mid 2018.
NYSE:TGT
by whitecollartrading
TGT - Hi Risk/Reward Option play, $45 July puts @ $0.45TGT is a possible High risk setup with high potential reward. It has broken down a long term upward channel & Channel breakdown target is around $45-46. And on the daily chart it has a downward trend, which targets around $44. To play this we are considering $45 July-17 Puts, Currently around $0.45 * Trade Criteria * Date first found- March 14, 2017 Pattern/Why- Upward channel breakdown Entry Target Criteria- Break of $54.35; We would consider July $45 Puts Exit Target Criteria- $44-45 Stop Loss Criteria- N/A Please check back for Trade updates. (Note: Trade update is little delayed here.)
NYSE:TGTShort
by AcornWealthCorp
THE WEEK AHEAD: TGT, BBY, LOW, XRT AND THE VIXWith earnings in TGT, BBY, and LOW, it's no surprise that implied volatility in the retail ETF, XRT, has ramped up here a bit (sixth month implied volatility rank is 73/implied volatility is 22). That being said, I'm really only looking at BBY for a play given its implied volatility rank/implied volatility (93/48). HTZ also announces earnings and has the right metrics for a play, but has 2.5 wide strikes where I'd want to set up, so I won't be playing that. TGT and LOW's background implied volatility probably will not be sufficient for me to play (they're in the high 20's/low 30's; I prefer something around or above 50). Relatedly, however, XRT is starting to "frisk up", so I may consider putting on a fly there if I can do a setup that brings in 1/4th of the width of the long options. Additionally, VIX spot hasn't moved significantly, but back month VIX futures options have ticked up a bit such that you can get in on a term structure trade in VIX in the May expiry at the 16 strike for a decent credit (e.g., May 16/19 short call vert). And that's what I'm looking at for the week ... .
AMEX:XRT
by NaughtyPines
1
$TGT Slammed. Here Is The Next Support To Buy It...Target Corporation (NYSE:TGT) took another beating today, falling over 5% after the company updated its fourth quarter guidance. Retail sales fell short and investors continue to run from every brick and mortar retailer. Many retailers like J.C. Penney (JCP), Macy's (M) and Sears Holdings (SHLD) are down over 30% in recent months. The sector is starting to look like a dead man walking or zombie. There is constant chatter about "real estate value', meaning investors are trying to justify the retailer valuation based on what their land is worth, essentially saying the retail brand has no value. This panic is getting overdone. While yes, more shoppers are shopping online, stores during Christmas were still packed. If anything, this massive sell gives investors like me a great opportunity to accumulate good companies on the cheap. In regards to Target Corporation, there is a major double bottom support level coming up at $66.00. I plan on picking some up there for a hard, strong bounce. I will be looking for a 5-10% bounce. I post and verify every trade I take right here: verifiedinvesting.com
NYSE:TGTLong
by AnnabelleTrader
TGT: Nice uptrend continuation tradeTGT is offering a second chance to go long if you missed my call in the Key Hidden Levels chatroom, or if you are not one of my trading signals clients. Go long at market, stop at 74.13 and aim for 79.81. Risk 0.5-1% per trade idea I post. Cheers! Check out my updated track record here: pastebin.com If interested in my real time whatsapp alerts and swing trading newsletter, or in personal tuition, contact me privately. I'm offering a considerable discount on a packaged course which includes access to my private trading signals list for a year. Cheers! Ivan Labrie Link to Tim West's chatroom: www.tradingview.com We discuss setups like this often there. Feel free to stop by and subscribe to his indicator pack. If you have any questions ask. Risk disclaimer: My analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
NYSE:TGTLong
by IvanLabrie