High Strength Hi guys. I see there is tons of potential here. Apart from the technical analysis I don't see another store with so many customers. Bullish in my humble opinion. Thank you for taking a look.
TGT
THE WEEK AHEAD: HD, CSCO, TGT, BBY, WMT, GPS, AMAT EARNINGSWe have bevvy of retail earnings announcements next week as the full season tapers off:
HD announces earnings on Tuesday before market open with a background implied volatility of 23% (top quarter of 52-week range).
CSCO -- Wednesday before market open with a background of 27 (near 52-week high).
TGT -- Wednesday before market open, at 36 (top quarter of 52-week range).
BBY -- Thursday, before market open, at 53 (near 52-week high).
WMT -- Thursday, before market open, at 25 (near 52-week high).
GPS -- Thursday, after market close, at 44 (above middle, but below top quarter of 52-week range).
AMAT -- Thursday, after market close, at 41 (near 52-week high).
I generally prefer playing earnings where the background volatility exceeds 50%, and it's in the top-quarter of its 52-week range, implying that the best candidate for an earnings contraction play would be BBY with AMAT close behind/worth watching for an increase in implied volatility running into the announcement.
Broad-market exchange-traded fund-wise, there isn't much to play: the Brazilian exchange-traded fund continues to print implied volatility percentages at or above 30% (currently, 35-ish), followed by the petro exchange-traded fund, XOP (34).
For non-earnings individuals, TEVA (72/upper end of its 52-week range) continues to garner my attention, along with CTL (56), which -- post-earnings -- maintains high volatility.
The majors -- well, there isn't much to look at. IWM leads with a background implied of 16, which is basically tied with the QQQ's at 16. SPY comes in at a paltry 13 ... .
On the volatility product front, the first /VX future trading at or above 16 is out in May (184 DTE), meaning that a <90 DTE VIX Term Structure trade isn't in the offing for me. However, the VXST/VIX ratio finished Friday's session somewhat elevated (.92), so it's worth keeping an eye out for any >1.00 pops in which to consider Contango Drift trades, particularly as we wind into a rollover with VIX spot trading at 11.29 relative to the Nov contract's 11.60 (2 DTE).
TGT - dividend champion for small money (4,4% dividend payout)If you look at the dividend payout ratio, you see that TGT is trading at 4,4% meaning that you get 4,4% yearly for your shares.
Company class A rating, 46% debt/ratio, stock's fair value is 63$ currently trading at 55$
Sell TGT Iron Condor May 52.5/47.5P, 58.5/62.5CTGT is having earning call on May 17, the same day as the May option expiration. I expect TGT will go side way before then. So I setup the Iron Condor to catch some money before then. Aim to close the position before May 17th.
drive.google.com
Positoin:
Put: -1x52.5/1x47.5
Call: -1*58.5/1x62.5
Breakeven: 51.67 to 59.33
PoP: 72%
Premium: 0.8$
Target Goal: 0.4$ (50% of the premium). This position is to be closed before May 17th, the earning date.
Target continues urban expansionThe Lower East Side of Manhattan, a gritty precinct once famous for crime, junkies and denizens of punk rock, is about to get its first Target.
Long-term view on TGT- Weekly ChartTarget has really taken a beating lately, primarily due to them losing market share to the mammoth Amazon. With the most resent earnings, TGT has broken down below what had been downward sloping support. My expectation is we will have a slight sell off early this week (week of 4/3/2017) but will ultimately retest the line that had been support, but will now be resistance, which should occur around TGT $61.50 area. In my view, TGT will then trade sideways/down and eventually break-down with speed to ultimately hit $43.60's area, or the 1.414 fib level. The timing lines up with my view of the overall market and also is a point where TGT will be hitting long-term support. Not a huge fan of retailers dwindling in market share but if this does occur, it may set up for a nice buy given their decent dividend and at that price it would be considered cheap. In summary, in my view, you can buy now for the short-term bounce to $61 but you don't want to be holding this stock once it reaches that level!! Wait to buy Early/Mid 2018.
TGT - Hi Risk/Reward Option play, $45 July puts @ $0.45TGT is a possible High risk setup with high potential reward. It has broken down a long term upward channel & Channel breakdown target is around $45-46.
And on the daily chart it has a downward trend, which targets around $44. To play this we are considering $45 July-17 Puts, Currently around $0.45
* Trade Criteria *
Date first found- March 14, 2017
Pattern/Why- Upward channel breakdown
Entry Target Criteria- Break of $54.35; We would consider July $45 Puts
Exit Target Criteria- $44-45
Stop Loss Criteria- N/A
Please check back for Trade updates. (Note: Trade update is little delayed here.)
TARGET GOING UPA recent descent of volume in falling price plus the bullish hammer indicates an uprise movement.
THE WEEK AHEAD: TGT, BBY, LOW, XRT AND THE VIXWith earnings in TGT, BBY, and LOW, it's no surprise that implied volatility in the retail ETF, XRT, has ramped up here a bit (sixth month implied volatility rank is 73/implied volatility is 22).
That being said, I'm really only looking at BBY for a play given its implied volatility rank/implied volatility (93/48). HTZ also announces earnings and has the right metrics for a play, but has 2.5 wide strikes where I'd want to set up, so I won't be playing that. TGT and LOW's background implied volatility probably will not be sufficient for me to play (they're in the high 20's/low 30's; I prefer something around or above 50).
Relatedly, however, XRT is starting to "frisk up", so I may consider putting on a fly there if I can do a setup that brings in 1/4th of the width of the long options.
Additionally, VIX spot hasn't moved significantly, but back month VIX futures options have ticked up a bit such that you can get in on a term structure trade in VIX in the May expiry at the 16 strike for a decent credit (e.g., May 16/19 short call vert).
And that's what I'm looking at for the week ... .
$TGT Slammed. Here Is The Next Support To Buy It...Target Corporation (NYSE:TGT) took another beating today, falling over 5% after the company updated its fourth quarter guidance. Retail sales fell short and investors continue to run from every brick and mortar retailer. Many retailers like J.C. Penney (JCP), Macy's (M) and Sears Holdings (SHLD) are down over 30% in recent months. The sector is starting to look like a dead man walking or zombie. There is constant chatter about "real estate value', meaning investors are trying to justify the retailer valuation based on what their land is worth, essentially saying the retail brand has no value. This panic is getting overdone. While yes, more shoppers are shopping online, stores during Christmas were still packed. If anything, this massive sell gives investors like me a great opportunity to accumulate good companies on the cheap. In regards to Target Corporation, there is a major double bottom support level coming up at $66.00. I plan on picking some up there for a hard, strong bounce. I will be looking for a 5-10% bounce.
I post and verify every trade I take right here: verifiedinvesting.com
$TGT high probabaility set up Target looks fantastic! It is on the cross line of long time support ( lover trend line o rising channel from 5 yrs chart) and downward channel.
TGT: Nice uptrend continuation tradeTGT is offering a second chance to go long if you missed my call in the Key Hidden Levels chatroom, or if you are not one of my trading signals clients.
Go long at market, stop at 74.13 and aim for 79.81. Risk 0.5-1% per trade idea I post.
Cheers!
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Ivan Labrie
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Risk disclaimer: My analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
TGT - to put option play TGT is breaking down upward channel. We think it will retest is support around 66.
For the trade we are looking for Oct 70 put
TGTTarget is trading below value as we see rotation of the point of control lower; however, bulls have clearly established support noted on volume profile. Looks like a good long and short swing.
Bollinger Squeeze on TargetStarting to create a new squeeze on TGT. With the pressure of a strong uptrend and recent squeezes, this will come out and go to testing long term highs.
THIS WEEK'S EARNINGS PLAYS -- HD, FSLR, CRM, LOW, TGT, BIDUHere's are next weeks earnings plays that I'm thinking of playing via options, assuming the implied volatility rank "stars" line up correctly ... :
HD: announces on Tues 2/23 before market open.The rank is 55, the implied 32, neither of which is that great. If IV doesn't pop, I'll pass.
FSLR: announces on Tues 2/23 after market close. With a rank of 72 and an implied of 69, it's good to go .
LOW: announces on Wed 2/24 before market open. Its rank is 65; implied, 35, so it's kind of the edge. Like HD, its volatility needs to pop a bit for me to play.
TGT: announces on Wed 2/24 before market open. Rank: 57; implied 33. Needs to pop.
CRM: announces on Wed 2/24 after market close. Also good to go with a rank of 71 and an implied of 60.
BIDU: announces on Thurs 2/25 after market close. It's good to go with rank at 72, implied at 60.
EOG: announces on Thurs 2/25 after market close. Good to go, but I don't think I've played this one recently, which is surprising because it's an oil and gas play, and that sector's been hot volatility wise.
HLF: announces on Thurs 2/25 after market close. Also good to go, rank and implied volatility wise.
I'll post setups the day immediately preceding the announcement if it looks like they're still good plays.
TGT weekly bull put spread79/78 weekly bull put spread .10 limit expires this week. Also one could look at next week, 77/76. I'm basing this spread purely on 15 / hour gap + the fact that I am others are trapped and the 100 SMA on the daily and 100/200 sma on the hourly are above spread.
TGT Day Trade Retest Gap (Brad Reed Feb25,2015)TGT expected to open at 77.84 for a Retest Gap. Watch out for nearby pivot. To learn this strategy for free go to www.RealLifeTrading.com
