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Thebanker

Trading blood on the streets, is this a buying opportunity?Markets are not too complacent about the latest BTC scandal and I recommend fading this negative noise and expect a complete turn around in tone from most mainstream media outlets into the coming weeks as Bitcoin becomes the perfect instrument to trade political risk. From a technical perspective here we are trading the bottom of a very wide range (whether bias is long or short we can agree this is a value area for those expecting more upside). -> The candle highlighted in green was the last time we put a "hard floor" in place and we will be defending this area as bears start to become exhausted in the current channel. -> We are trying to predict a bottom here so patience and strong nerves are required. EW implies this 2nd wave is corrective and is re-enforced by the highs made earlier in wave 1 taking the highs from the previous 'iv' leg implying a change in direction. -> The tomb for a huge swing may have been opened here; by drawing a simple fib extension from the ABC in Feb lows towards the March lows to give us a final TP3 extension target of 15,100. BUY LMT @ 7500 | TP1 10,000 | TP2 12,200 | TP3 15,100 | STOP LOSS 5800
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by TheBanker
8
EUR/USD - Pandora's box is openIn all ordinary circumstances my advice here would be to buy at market within proper limits of risk mgmt. We are entering at the bottom of a wide range in EURUSD which will require a large purse and strong nerve. For the sake of transparency, here we are assuming the dollar leg has finished and we are trading a pullback towards the middle of the range, timing wise the next short term line in the sand is ECB's meeting at the end of May. Here we may be opening the tomb of a great swing ahead into the 1.33+ levels. Inflation has slowed in both the Eurozone and the US, here lies the danger to my thesis. Failure from the ECB to end their QE programme this year will short circuit all expectations and send EURUSD down towards the 1.12xx handle in no time.
Long
by TheBanker
13
DXY ... WOW!! A major reversal is coming to the dollar It will affect all these pairs - NU/USD EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY AU/USD The economy in the USA is doing great. lowest unemployment numbers in 17 years. Fed is slowly increasing rates. Even if inflation isnt moving up yet, Fed is still raising rates to have some ammunition for the next recession. Keep in mind inflation is a lagging indicator, by the time you start getting it whipping through the economy, its to late. Also, the first thing to show inflation isnt durable goods etc, its Assets. Large Assets in the US are inflating, houses are increasing in value at a strong pace. The market has been bearish on the dollar for a long time dating back to march of 2017, even as far back as November of 2016. Market is bearish, fundamentals are strong. It doesnt add up. So it seems the pressure is building for the dollar to be bullish. Now throw in the technical analysis with a very nice bullish Bat on the WEEKLY chart with an RSI at 33. We are not there yet but we are getting very very close to a turn around in the dollar.
TVC:DXYLong
by dallasgunns777
5
waiting for the bell...US equities are starting to look well and truly overcooked, if we don't see a rate hike today (very unlikely) then July will come. Eyes on the rhetoric around the balance sheet today will be the key to pandoras box, in my books we are set for a mid term change of trend in US equities ... expecting a clean sweep for the 2417 handle with a tick below unlocking the air underneath In the related ideas are the 3 parts to Brexit , explore those when you have time as they will start to build a picture for how we are aligning for a massacre in equity markets, UK equities wont give till US and Europe also begin too!
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by TheBanker
1
Navigating Today's FED via GBP/USD... expecting a new overshoot to the downside here as widely expected since last month (see attached charts) - the brexit chapters are hopefully providing you with nice reading material we are now trading 95% odds of a hike; though the impact will be softer on the dollar than most expect and impact will weight heavier on equities ... Sterling is one of the best ways to play the dollar strength, those who are in premium trades from 1.30x and 1.29x congratulations as we can continue to scale in at 1.28x till the 1.26x handle is taken and we can trade air below. This swing will continue to last throughout the summer, so continue to see weakness UNLESS we see a major change in stance from the FED today, odds of this are very slim. GL to all
Short
by TheBanker
18
"Winner takes all" on EURGBP for UK Elections... after what was another upsetting weekend in the city, sadly, no surprises!!! Elections now taking centre stage in UK alongside Saudi/Qatar relations. We'll wrap up the macro details in a few as I will be publishing 2 setups on EURGBP for those wishing to take part these will include references to the interpretation/context of recent numbers and politics. -> The options ... Long or short. Those choosing to take part have 2 triggers to pick from; price and fibs and we can compare at the end which was the best (if any). (i) FIBS Longs -> Shorts -> (ii) PRICE Longs -> Shorts -> ---------- Choose from; BUY : Limit BUY @ 0.865x -> TP1 0.882x -> TP2 0.900x SELL : Limit SELL @ 0.881x -> TP1 0.845x -> TP2 0.823x ---------- This is the range we are currently trading in: Bottom of range : 0.8350x Top of range : 0.9270x Mid : 0.8750x => Conservatives remaining with unchanged majority, expectations will offer a relief rally towards the 0.84xx handle after the election. This would give us continuation of the range (Mid/Low) of 0.84xx - 0.88xx => Conservatives losing majority and Corbyn the communist getting the hung parliament we will see expectations towards the 0.90xx handle in a swift knee jerk before settling in the 0.84xx - 0.88x range till the end of this year when we will start to trade the impact of Brexit in equities. Come on jump in and make a call!!
by TheBanker
11
this is worth $1 MILLION DOLLARS!!Another brilliant day across the currency board; exhaustion legs in sterling and Euro to see us through for the summer. Now focus shifting over to /CL, with OPEC keeping prices in current range and Canada's Q1 GDP prints being v.good this is a good opportunity to look for buys on a pullback . Tracking 1.33xx - 1.34xx like a hawk where I will look for a move back towards the 1.40xx handle; US equities are aligned for the prescient 'sell in may and go away' and June hike is a done deal... lets review in a few. GL
Long
by TheBanker
5
Risk Parity - Finance lesson 1 Warning Long Macro Post ahead! The aim of this post is to open the discussion on risk parity and add insight into why some of the largest macro funds in the world use the strategy of risk parity . ... It is basically an asset allocation concept. -> At what point do we have our portfolio 100% in these really safe securities (safest of all is inflation protected securities... which are bonds issued by sovereign entity without inflation return) Yields are very small.. sub 1% usually. -> Then you have normal bonds, these can be any kinds of bonds . They don't have to be treasuries they can be corporate bonds. -> And then you have mixed portfolio , which is maybe 60% stocks and 40% bonds... -> Or perhaps a really risky portfolio with 100% stocks -> Or EVEN riskier with 100% Emerging Market Equities . +++++ The question is what kind of returns do we expect? +++++ One of the ways people employ Risk Parity is a re-balancing concept;
CBOE:VXXEducation
by TheBanker
3
CL Monthly Technical Outlook - 9th July 2016From a technical perspective, the oil price has turned quite interesting since the start of a new trading month. The chart below shows the monthly rolling oil contract chart where June’s price action closed in a doji. It gains significance following three straight months of gains. The monthly Stochastics also shows the hidden bearish divergence currently playing out, as prices form a lower (June) high at $51.66 and the higher Stochastics while, the higher (May 2015) high at $62.51 and the subsequent lower high in the Stochs. In the near term, oil prices could remain range bound within 48/49 and 44/45 levels. www.tradingsignalreviews.com
FX:USOIL
by TheBanker
5
EURCHF seems determined to fall...Guys... Above 1.0711 we can see a near term base for a recovery bak to 1.0726. Beyond 1.0771 is needed to mark further downside. EURCHF below 1.0711 can keep the immediate risk lower for the June 2016 spike and 61.8% retracement of the April-15/February-16 rally at 1.0623/04. Below here is needed to mark a more important top for 1.0445/40. The SNB may also believe it is inevitable that some gradual but temporary appreciation manifests in the lead up to one of the most important elections for Europe over the last decade. The EURCHF may be seen as a self correcting phenomenon with the Le Pen winning. It may be very possible for this to reach parity, even with SNB FX intervention this continues to fall gradually. Please remember to like this idea and comment if you found it useful! All the best
Short
by TheBanker
2
Need more pharmaceutical investments?Chaps... Arena is now a pipeline company, with three phase 2's this year for now the algos have this until we get see some results and we let loose. JPM update was the golden egg, please see slides for more information (www.sec.gov) Poor $OREX longs never learn, holders now after reading the ARNA CC transcript its like a Rolls Royce to a Ford KA, ARNA has eisai paying all exp. and still takes 20% of revs,and the PIPELINE is the rainmaker! Overview on pharma as an industry? Alzheimers disease is the global emergency and health in general we are all living longer and making it to be 70 and 80 and eventually 130 and150 years old. The problem is the focus, Parkinsons, Alzheimers and ageing in general take up so much time. Governments are satisfied with dealing with the research and leaving the application side to the pharma companies, that is not a great connection. For example anti ageing is very hard in our current framework to achieve as a company, the FDA is not set up for it, the patent office is not set up for it. You could make a great anti ageing drug and lose all of your money trying to back. You need a 10-20 year project to defeat Alzheimers, it is the one case where government spending is actually warranted, like the moon landing. Its a wonderful thing for society, the world should start a drug company to focus on these areas, the one area they could partner up. In the same breath we have done a great job for cancer research has been almost miraculous, PD1 inhibitors have been really successful and cancer in general is starting to be done with.
ALong
by TheBanker
9
Italian ATM's are being emptied, bank runs have begunwhen stocks crash usually money parks in stocks , we really will not see anyone rushing to Italian government here as the trust levels are just not there, we will get there but not for some time. Retail participation is also at all time lows, with danger on the public side with smart money selling bonds and running to equities . we are looking at government debt with Italian banks pushing the limits on finance. EZ has a crisis on its hands please see my related eurusd -0.55% charts to gain an understanding of what is going on behind the curtain.
TVC:IT10Short
by TheBanker
so glad we did this!!Morning guys, Weekend is almost over and I will be enjoying the last few hours before the markets opens and another action packed week begins. Recent rallies have been quickly sold implying NZD cannot remain at these higher levels against the dollar. November confirmed the negative momentum and after yesterdays rate further enhancing the negative outlook for weeks to come. have attached the previous nzdusd chart for comparison purposes, all the best with this position into the new year. Likes and comments always appreciated!
Short
by TheBanker
11
After The Trump USD Rally, What's Next?Afternoon guys.. 2016 was a roller coast for markets. A year ago investors were in panic about deflation, indeed as the year progressed a good case inflation scenario unfolded. The market reaction following the US elections was even faster that expected. In real terms the USD is ~8% above its 20y average but still 8% below its high in 2002. Hedge funds are long the USD, real money remains short which is a relatively similar positioning in the last 12 months. Rate momentum has been especially negative for EUR. Meanwhile USD remains an asset with strong equities and the steepest rates trend, capturing the most hawkish monetary policy in G10. I remain bullish on the USD for the years ahead, there are short term risks such as the BoJ's credibility in easing monetary policy vs. the ECB. Alongside the contributions fiscal policy will play this year as a potential leader over monetary policy.
DLong
by TheBanker
9
Rip Van Winklevoss?As many of you know crypto is not my field and I would rather leave this to the experts, after many requests from previous btccny idea (see below) falling just shy of 100 cny from out 9k target we came close but no cigar. On the macro side CNY buyers have put the moon path on pause for the second half of January - 5841.68 is the flip, if we don't put our fists through this then expect another test of 4898.12 and possibly 4442.33 before any further relief. To date, 4898.12 held giving more meaning to our next attempt at punching through 6897.18 and 7009.13 Gl guys, please comment your views and if the levels helped give the idea a thumbs up, cheers!
BLong
by TheBanker
9