GBP possibly weakeningGBPUSD has 6 trading days been unable to break free of the channel it has found itself in. The support at 1.2780 is supporting the price but 1.29 looks out of reach from these levels. With RSI declining and H4 TDI very BEARISH, we could be about to see the BULLS give ground to the BEARS.
Adding to the possibly BEARISH picture is the downward channel edge that price is struggling to break clear from.
We will be looking to SELL this market under 1.2780.
Theforexportal
SELL EUR/CAD at market 1.4807Signs of the EUR BULL run coming under pressure and with RSI dipping down towards 70 from overbought this looks a good place to SHORT EUR/CAD. First target will be the rising trend line although where price will hit this line is uncertain.
CAD Retail Sales at 13:30 will have to be watched so its advised to tighten stops before this release as a poor print will kill the trade.
SELL SPX500 under 2322March put in an indecision doji candle and May appears to be doing the same. Coming at the end of a strong BULL run, this clearly shows there are increasing doubts as too how much further SPX500 BULLS can push the price higher.
The Monthly RSI reads 71.16 slightly down from last month and but still in overbought territory. If we dip below 70 this could be a good time to SHORT this market.
Look to SELL this market under 2322 with a STOP at 2340.
AUDCAD may be about to reverseThe AUD has performed well over the last week but with price now reaching overbought and AUDCAD approaching double resistance, we may see a decline from these levels.
Being a holiday, volumes will be down but this can lead to volatility.
We are taking a small position and SHORTING this pair from 1.0094 with a STOP at 1.0140 above all the resistance.
Unclear direction for EURCADWith the DTF TDI signalling SELL and the H4 TDI signalling BUY its unclear which way this pair are headed. EURCAD is in a down trend as long as we remain below the 200 sma on H4 and DTF so the BULLS will need to take the price above 1.4279 to change the BEARISH picture.
Price may head north initially but as long as we remain under 1.42 any pullbacks should be sold
1.0624 remains key to EURCHFWith the price of EUR/CHF just 30+ pips away from critical support, it remains to be seen if EUR/CHF can break out of its long established channel.
Political turmoil and a flight to the CHF could bring pressure on this pair in the next few weeks and months but its more likely we'll continue drifting.
We are SHORT this because of current political uncertainty and the threat Marine Le Pen putting in a strong showing in the forth coming French Elections. Although a Le Pen win can all but be ruled out a strong showing could be enough to hurt the EUR.
All the risk is to the downside and we don't see a even a likely Macron victory bringing much relief.
Maribuzo weekly candle suggests more downside to come on EURGBPMore downside expected on EURGBP as last weeks candle was a BEARISH Maribuzo. With the H4 200 sma and the DTF 200 both together, it would take something quite remarkable for the BULLS to defeat this level (.8622) and the path of leat resistance is clearly down. Oversold on H1 means we cannot rule out a bounce from these levels but any pullbacks are an opportunity to SHORT.
GBPNZD looks to be weakening and follow GBPAUDAs with GBP/AUD, last weeks GBP/NZD weekly candle was just about BULLISH but price currently is 240 pips below the weeks high.
Technically a move down to support at 1.7739 and key support at 1.7696 looks likely adn then we will need to see if this support holds.
If 1.7696 fails (200sma on H4) then a move down to 1.7570 (200sma on DTF) lokms and under that we could see a more sustained move south.
SELL GBPAUDLast weeks weekly candle showed that GBP/AUD finished the week higher then when it started but any encouragement that this gives to GBP/AUD BULLS is misplaced as the price hit 1.6722 earlier in the week and now stands 200 pips lower. Technically the picture is extremely BEARISH on all key time frames and its hard to see how the G/A rallies from these levels.
With price sinking back under the 200sma on the DTF and RSI heading down, a move back to 1.6380 looks inevitable. We wont know if this is a pullback or a more serious decline until support levels lower down are either broken or held.
GBPCHF looks to be weakeningThe last 3 days have seen 3 indecision doji candles suggesting the BULLS are running out of strength.
As long as we remain above the 200 on the DTF we must assume we are still in an uptrend but with RSI weakening, a move back to support must be favourite.
I'll be looking for a move down to 1.25 in the next trading week and see if support here holds. With political tensions increasing, a flight to the CHF seems likely so GBPCHF is likely to come under pressure.
SELL down to 1.25 and see where we go if we move down there. If 1.25 fails then a move to 1.2430 is possible.
BULLISH structure remainsGBPCAD BULLISH structure remains intact as long as we stay above the H4 and DTF 200 SMA's.
Fridays daily candle was a perfect indecision doji suggesting the BULLS and the BEARS had an equal share of the action on Friday and from a technical standpoint a move down to support at 1.6643 looks possible where we may see the BULLS move back into the market.
Under 1.6618 changes the outlook to more BEARISH but for now BUY on dips as long as 1.6618 remains intact.
Gloomy outlook for GBPJPY BULLSWith key support at 136.75 broken and price now trading under the 200 sma on the Daily, more weakness in G/J is likely. The rising trendline shown, which comes in at 134.76 may offer support but this seems unlikely. Adding to the BEARISH technical picture are political tensions over North Korea and Syria/Russia which will lead to investors seeking out the safety of the YEN and the CHF.
HArd to see any significant support under 135 so a break under this level opens up a deeper move down to 132.
GBPJPY poised for a move higher?136.65 has held up G/J BEARS and the falling trendline shown (red) is holding up the BULLS.
On the Daily TF TDI (not shown) the price is becoming increasingly squeezed with just 14 points covering the volatility bands and the RSI, Market line and Signal line all held within this tight range.
The RSI on the DTF is headed up indicating a general BULLISH look but the 200sma lies at 137.35 just 31 pips above the current price.
Should price take out this level and hold above it on the H1 time frame this could signal a more decisive move north and a break of the squeeze north. If this happens a move up to next significant resistance at 139 area is possible
Where is USDCAD headed?From early 2011 to early 2016 USDCAD rose steadily. On hitting the .786 Fib level price swiftly retraced down to the .50 Fib and since then price has largely traveled sideways between the .50 Fib and the .618 Fib levels. This makes trying to work out where USD/CAD is headed very difficult if not impossible unless certain levels break. North of 1.36 would suggest USDCAD has resumed its uptrend and looking to retest 1.4660. Under 1.2972 would suggest we could see a move south.
One possible trade idea would be to SELL at 1.3465-1.3480 area and look to BUY at 1.3330.
AUDNZD bouncing off support?Friday saw AUD/NZD bounce off a well-defined support/resistance area but doubts remain whether this pair is headed higher or lower.
The Daily and H4 TDI levels suggest we're going lower but H4 is moderately BULLISH.
If the support level at 1.0761 holds then look to go LONG.
If this level breaks then SELL this pair down to 1.0560 area.
AUDUSD at well-established support - will we bounce?The stiff resistance at .7732 area remains intact and whilst we remain under this level we should be looking to SHORT this pair. However from these levels (.7500) with RSI over sold and solid support beneath, AUD may attempt to recover.
This looks quite an easy trade so if .7490 remains in tact and we see price move north we can look to BUY this pair from current levels with a STOP under .7490.
Should, however, price slip below .7490 then look to SELL down to .73 area.
EURAUD looks under pressureBULLISH week last week for the EURAUD but this had less to do with EUR strength and more to do with AUD weakness. Whilst the AUD remains under pressure the EUR could gain ground but any sign of Aussie strength and this pair could reverse rapidly. Technically this pair is BEARISH whilst we remain under 1.4176 and we are looking to SELL this pair down to 1.3624 support.
EURJPY looks weakAs price remains under the 200 sma on the DTF , EUR BULLS look to have it all to do. The RSI on the DTF is at extreme oversold levels so a bounce cannot be ruled out but this is likely to be short lived and a downward resumption looks inevitable. Look to SELL this market down to 116.
SELL EURUSDLast Friday saw EURUSD hit significant support but failed to move higher with any authority.
The picture is very BEARISH with RSI falling on the higher time frames and TDI equally BEARISH.
With the USD showing no real strength there's always a chance the EUR could bounce but from a technical standpoint the BEARS seem to be in control.