Get started

Thegreatreset

The Great Reset Episode II : The Dollar, Debt and Demographics I used to believe in hyperinflation and a dollar reset too But this isn't going to happen (yet) For nigh on 40 years, economic growth per capita (nominal AND inflation-adjusted real ) has been in a downtrend. This coincides with the 40 year bull market in long term government bonds. For around a quarter-century: the GDP generated /dollar of the money supply has fallen; and this demise is accelerating. The velocity of money (M2V) has crashed post-pandemic, and it is at a 100 year low; this is not consistent with persistent inflation/hyperinflation. The money multiplier is falling because banks can't lend productively, and are parking cash at the Federal Reserve. MRDP (marginal revenue product of the debt) is at an all-time low: currently around $0.25 of GDP per dollar of debt. The dollar itself stays strong because the rest of the world is even more indebted and less productive (with lower MRDPs). Demographics and Debt will both continue to subsume growth, with the EU especially affected by demographics. Markets are in a bubble because we are at peak debt and peak growth. As soon as reality bites: equities will be the first to suffer. The dollar will just get stronger mid term. G.R.I. Dec 2021 With thanks to Lacy Hunt (Hoisington) and Eric Basmajian (EPB Research) for all their work on the above NOTE: the views expressed above are my own, AND MUST NOT BE CONSTRUED AS ANY FORM OF ADVICE
TVC:DXY
by Great_Reset_Investing
11
Hard assets are the way forwardWith the money printer going BRRRR (costing $4T from the fed) causing stock prices to be inflated, investors and money managers in the stock market may soon take profits into hard assets that aren't necessarily tied to the value of the dollar, like housing, cryptocurrencies, gold, etc. in order to preserve the wealth that may otherwise be lost due to continued inflation. This could explain why BlackRock and Palantir have bought Real Estate and Gold at large respectively throughout the year. Note, cryptocurrencies are at risk of going down with equities if the market doesn't consider it as a commodity. The coming months maybe even weeks will reveal as to whether it matches or disassociates correlation with the stock market as the SPX/CPIAUCSL chart reaches its 1.618 fib extension from the 2000 dot com highs to the 2008 lows, and the Dow theory continues to play out. Perhaps all this money printing was done to usher in a Great Reset of economics; to meet the expected productivity from the innovations of the 4th industrial revolution? offset panic from retirees? encourage the youth to invest and adopt crypto as an inflation hedge? Will a crash come? Maybe, maybe not, but I think if it were to happen, the $ may be transferred to blockchain tech as it serves as a commodity with major innovative growth potential to digitize most businesses and services to make them ESG compliant . Overall, stagflation will likely occur in response to the fed attempting to delay the retirement and debt crisis as long as possible, ongoing high unemployment (workers incentivized to collect UI as it pays more than min. wage), and possible future low economic growth (as a result of goods being unable to be transported due to COVID-19). One could argue that deflation is more likely to occur if innovations in blockchain technology spread outside of Finance and into other areas such as supply chain automation, insurance, identity, etc, allowing productivity to match or even outpace the supply of money. But such progress has yet to have been either made or discovered depending on the respective industry, let alone hesitancy of adoption due to BTC's perceived low ESG score.
SP:SPGSCILong
by linebands
🚨🚨🚨2022-2032: The Great Reset - Global Economic Crisis🚨🚨🚨The following analysis looks at the 2 major historical crashes: 1929 Wall Street Crash 2000/08 Dotcom Bubble & Subpime Crash I then compare them with where we are today in 2021, and where the market is going for the next decade 2022 - 2032. I take a simple, reductionist approach to look at basic technical analysis / indicator (MACD) factors identifying similarities and compare them, following the efficient markets hypothesis that all available information is priced into the market. By applying this, observing historical trends, similarities and outcomes I assume current trends may play out in a similar manner under the similar conditions of technical analysis / indicators. The market repeats itself, time and time again we can identify repetition in trends and outcomes. 1929 - 1942: Wall Street Crash & The Great Depression 1.a: Observe how the market is overinflated from 1927 - 1929 - The market broke into the blue channel in 1927, aggressively inflating compared to previous decades of growth. - The market broke out of the blue channel in Jan 1929, into outer-space, these levels could not be sustained and in November 1929, this resulted in the Wall Street Crash 2.a: Observe how the growth and crashes in late 19th Century / early 20th Century channel respect the inner green channel - These were the panics of the 1870’s, 1880’s 1890’s, and 1900’s, 1910’s etc. - indicators seem to be stable and channel is not broken 3.a: Observe the Mega Crash of 85%: - This crash was so big, it set new channel for 20th century 4.a: Observe the MACD Histogram Stability, Breakout and Collapse: - Even during the 1870-1910’s panics, the MACD is stable - In 1927, we see a breakout of the MACD to unseen high levels, ties to the break into the blue channel - A MACD collapse follows, very soon after the breakout from the blue channel and results in 85% crash 2000 - 2010: Dotcom Bubble & Subprime Crash & The Great Recession 1.a: Observe how the market is overinflated from 1994 - 2000, and never retraces until 2009 - The market broke into the blue channel in 1994, aggressively inflating compared to previous decades of growth. - The market broke out of the blue channel in Jun 1997, into outer-space, these levels could not be sustained and in September 2000, this resulted in the Dotcom bubble crash - The market did not fully retrace, and eventually in 2007 there was a small breakout of the blue channel and resulting Submprime crash 2.a: Observe how the growth and crashes in mid 20th Century channel respect the inner green channel - These were the crisis of '66, ’69, ’73, '87 etc. - indicators seem to be stable and channel is not broken 3.a: Observe the Medium Crash of 58%: - This crash actually played out over 2 intervals, the Dotcom & Subprime - I am not sure if this was big enough to set a new channel for the 21st century, or in the previous channel of the 20th century is still in play 4.a: Observe the MACD Histogram Stability, Breakout and Collapse: - Even during the 1950s-1980s crisis, the MACD is stable - In 1995, we see a breakout of the MACD to unseen high levels, ties to the break into the blue channel - A MACD collapse follows in Dec ’99 coinciding with the breakout from the blue channel very soon after the results is a 58% crash 2022 - 2032: Global Economic Crisis & The Great Recession 1.a: Observe how the market is still overinflated even after the ditch bubble and subprime crashes - The market broke out of the blue channel in Jan 2021, aggressively inflating similar to Dotcom bubble - Assuming that the break from the blue channel results in a crash, I have overlaid the crashes of 1929 & 2000/08 3.a: Prediction of a mega crash in 2022 - 2025 around 60%-80% using previous crashes as baseline - See the overlays and potential correction paths that could play out - Both the 1929 & 2000/08 crashes follow a similar trend of a correction, followed by a breakup, followed by another correction - I am proposing that this crash will be significant enough to result in a new channel to be set for the 21st century - I believe that this crash is planned (this is part of the Great Reset) the global economic masters want to reset the global economy - just read about it from the Work Economic Forum (but this opinion is outside the technical analysis) 4.a: Observe the MACD Histogram Stability & Breakout- is the next step the Collapse: ?? - Looking at the MACD across the 2000-2020 range, it is actually stable - In Jan 2021 we see a breakout of the MACD to unseen high levels, ties to the break out of the blue channel - Prediction: A MACD collapse will follow between 2022 and 2025, which will be followed by similarly volatile repetitions of this MACD breakout & collapse Conclusion: Observing the historical 1929 & 2000/08 Crashes, they appear to manifest in similar ways in breakouts of the major trend channel, disrespecting decades long stable market micro-cycles, but especially on the MACD Histogram. Now in 2021 we appear to be experiencing exactly the same conditions playing out. The monthly MACD Histogram is a massive warning sign when assessed in comparison to the historical crashes. Hoe the crashes built up and played out. I expect that 2022 - 2025 will see a major market correction of -60% to -80%, purely based upon technical analysis / indicators. Opinion: To add colour to the indicators, we can look at the news, the agendas and what the global economic elite are planning: The Great Reset. Klaus Schwab (Founder of the World Economic Forum) in his book, The Great Reset (2020) outlines his outlook for the coming decades of rest that will happen across our global local, business and private lives. This outlook is aligned with the agendas (Agenda 2030, 2050 etc.) of the World Economic Forum and other globalist institutions, IMF, World Bank, WHO etc. What is clear is that the global economic elite are capitalising on the COVID pandemic as a catalyst to reset the global economy and societies. Or perhaps, the Covid pandemic is a coverup to hide the real cause of the inevitable global economic crisis? The mask of bad monetary policy, excessive money printing / fiat, fractional reserve banking and marco economic & generational cycles. What are your thoughts? Feel free to share ideas!
TVC:SPX
by Yemala
10