BTC Diamond Ser ?- While bears see bearish pennants, I see diamonds in the rough.
- I remain bullish, not due to the price, but for the sake of humanity.
- This isn’t an analysis, just a light-hearted joke, so please don’t roast me too hard! 🙏.
- Remember, diamonds are forever.
- Hodl!
Happy Tr4Ding!
Theking
Doggy Style- I mostly use some specific projects to try to predict the next " Altcoin Rally ".
- I typically use Cardano or Doge because they are older and I can use indicators from earlier times.
- Yes doge is meme, but all altcoins are also Memes until they have a real use case right ?
- so you remember this BTC post i made in 2022 ? ( please check it )
- So this is almost exactly the same but with this graph i use :
- Tenkansen ( Yellow line )
- SenkouSpan ( Green line )
- so now check the compressing descending trend.
- check now both lines ( Yellow and Green ).
- Notice when the yellow line cross down the green, we go bear.
- Notice when the yellow cross up the green, we go bull.
- So what we can deduct? - Altcoins are not yet Bullish.
- But remember Altcoins will go parabolic at one point and you want to be there!
- When? - anyone knows the exact date but you need to understand " The Delay ".
- i will post in comments same chart but i will use BTC with same technic and you will get that BTC is already bullish.
Happy Tr4Ding !
Dominance & Altcoins- This graph is purely based on fibonacci law.
- 61.8% is the core of the system ( check rectangles in graph to get it )
- Most of long term traders not even look at the price.
- they just wait the good time to buy using Fibo.
- in 2016 BTC was almost 100%. Altcoins were inexistant. (less than 2% of the market with ETH)
- in 2021 BTC Dominance pushed to 75% (altseason followed the push)
- in 2024 we could see BTC dominance knocks 60% ish ( Altseason will follow )
- BTC is maturing.
- Cryptos are growing.
- Don't look too much at your altcoin wallets.
- Most of the time the story repeats itself.
- Respect the cycle, be patient and eat noodles!
Happy Tr4Ding !
USDT vs USDC The Last Rush- Everything is in the chart.
- So my own deduction ( and only my own ) is : " Actually BTC not dipped so much "
- They pushed it hard, many peoples turned their BTC and Altcoins to USDT/USDC for safety.
- BTC is still not yet considered as a reserve like Gold in case of crises, peoples still scare and back really fast to the old paper money system when panic is around.
- i will link following this post a PAXG/BTC Chart to show what happened when BTC dipped.
- just look at indicators and you will clearly understand how much stables coins pushed high and Mooned/Marsed in the red " Overbought " Zone.
- Results : TheKing is still around 20k.
- that said, we can notice that USDC is gaining much more interests than USDT, just because USDC (Circle) is backed by cash and short-term U.S. government bonds as collateral.
- after the "LUNA-UST" Crash peoples started to fear and they are right, so they turned their Stables to USDC.
- in near future, USDC will gains more dominance on USDT and the next Dip could results in an Equal Dominance ( 3.80% - 3.20% )
i hope this post help to understand the situation, be H4ppy and St4y S4fe !
Happy Tr4Ding !
Tether The Trumpet- On this Chart i use zero indicator and just the trend.
- Some basic supports and resistances.
- What we can see and deduct ?
- Tether jumped from 0.01% to 1% dominance from 2015 to 2018.
- from 2019 to 2023 USDT.Dom growed from 1% to 10%.
- now the trend is still evolving in a steady broadening trumpet formation.
- Do you really believe Tether would reach 35% Dominance in Crypto Markets ?
- it would mean that 35% of peoples would prefer to stay in Stables Fiat and win nothing.
- Just using logic and combine FA + TA :
- This uper trend will be broken down soon or later.
- i just do believe that Tether have to crash at one point ( no matter the reason ).
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- So now a quick comprehensive explanation about Tether.Dom and how it works :
1 - When BTC down = Peoples swap their BTC to USDT (panic)
- USDT.Dom up !
- Tether stop the printing Machine and wait.
2. - When BTC up = Peoples swap their USDT to buy BTC (fomo)
- USDT.Dom Down !
- Tether have to restart the printing machine and issue more USDT to cover BTC demands.
- Yes it's simple as that..
- Tether is not really different than the FED.
- they just print more USDT from thin air when peoples want buy more BTC.
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- Remember that without BTC, Tether would worth 0$ and disappear.
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St4y Safe
Happy Tr4Ding !
Tether Dom- i will try to make it short.
- Like always everything is understandable in graph.
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TA :
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- Tether made a triple new ATH around 9% dominance on Crypto Markets.
- Got rejected 3X times.
- Right now it's the 4th attempt for USDT trying to break 9%.
- i kept BB in graph to show that USDT flirts again with the higher bollinger band.
- Right now the most important is to watch out for Divergences.
- Divergence or Hiden-Div will come soon or later.
- i expect Tether to back around 5% Dom around 2024 when the bullmarket will back.
- Do you remember last year when USDT and USDT were racing together ?
- USDC ( Circle ) Failed with the fall of Silicon Valley Bank.
- Now USDC is a back to 2.60% Dom.
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FA :
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- Remember USDT still have a big lack of transparency.
- if u check the news, you will notice that Tether invested heavily in Bitcoin Mining.
- They did this move to use this diversification as a parachute in case of troubles.
- if Tether fails for any reason it could quickly dip to 3.7% Dom.
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Last Point : CDBC are coming and central banks will try kickout Tether from this game.
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Conclusion : Stay Safe and Buy Bitcoin !
Happy Tr4Ding !
BTC DOM- Quick Update.
- If you're still standing and holding onto your cryptos, you’ve earned a medal.
- Not much to see in this monthly chart, just one key detail :
- Take a look at the RSI and notice how much BTC dominance has surged.
- The next move could be altcoins skyrocketing out of nowhere.
One word: HODL !!!
Happy Tr4Ding !
BTC The State NowHere’s a quick market update with a timeline and trend analysis :
- As always, it’s as simple as checking the colors and trends in the graphic.
- We’re currently in a phase of solid consolidation.
- The bull run hasn’t started yet, but in time, BTC is expected to go parabolic, as it usually does.
- The current cycle is taking longer to play out.
- The differences between 2020 and 2024 corrections are clear. Back in 2020, BTC was still maturing, not widely accepted, and impacted by the Covid crisis.
- In 2023, BTC has gained more recognition with ETFs, attracted wealthy investors, and is evolving into a true store of value.
- For these reasons, TheKing may be retracing, but it’s doing so with power and resilience.
- Everyone wants a piece of the cake, which is why Bitcoin's price remains elevated.
Just HODL and you'll be rewarded in the long run.
Happy Tr4Ding
Bitcoin Quest- History tends to repeat itself.
- The maximum could reach around 250k.
- The minimum could drop to about 40k.
- Remember, the longer it takes, the higher we could go.
- The graphic is straightforward as usual; just track "colors", "bubbles" and "trends."
- Keep in mind, while the future is uncertain, we can still speculate.
Happy Tr4Ding
The Golden Ratio- Throughout history, the ratio for length to width of rectangles of 1.61803 39887 49894 84820 has been considered the most pleasing to the eye.
- This ratio was named the golden ratio by the Greeks.
- In the world of mathematics, the numeric value is called "phi", named for the Greek sculptor Phidias.
- Everything is in chart.
Happy Tr4Ding !
BTC Fishing Bottom- After all this FUDS over time, right now it's literally impossible to calculate a potential real bottom.
- Basically you can do TA all day but if Bad News (Fed) and FUDS (Cryptos) are constantly incoming on Twitter and Google everyday, nothing will work.
- Some news are real like FTX Rekt but some influencers use more fake news to create panic, they want buy BTC cheaper before the next bull run. it parts of the game.
- Have to remember for the numbers : Luna crash caused 40-50B$ hole in market (Anchor Protocol was huge), FTX was around 10B$.
- imho the real bottom was in at 17.5K$. Right now BTC made a bounce around 15.5k$ but one think that i know is : There's absolutely nothing in this area. No support. No consolidation in the past years. Nothing. Zero!
- There's not many roads right now, or we bounce with a magical pump to fake everyone, or we dip to 13.5k - 10.5k.
- if a mid season bull run starts, wait for BTC walk away from the bearish trendline. Wait for a breakout (21,5k$) and a strong weekly candle closing upper from that price.
- i really recommend you to stay outside markets for now.
- The best strategy right now is to DCA Buy with strict prices zones orders.
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Resuming
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Bear Mode
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Buy zone 1 : 13500$ (25% of capital)
Buy zone 2 : 10500$ (75% of capital)
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Bull Mode
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Buy Breakout : 21500$+
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TP : 47000$ ( don't try greed more )
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We learn from failure, not from success
Happy Tr4Ding !
Bitcoin Simple Strategy- The strategy is simple :
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- Buy when TOP.
- Sell when BOTTOM. 😂
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- Hope u got the Joke.
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- Everything is in graph.
- No matter how dip TheKing will go, don't be greedy.
- When they speak Bitcoin is Dead. the bottom is near.
- Focus on the long term.
- Fortune favors the Bold!
Happy Tr4Ding!
BTC PA Model- i usually don't speak much when i don't see anything.
- Right now we can just speculate on some scenarios.
- so you can just imagine those scenarios with the figure i drew ( ending Diamond )
- you can notice some H&S and a big inversed H&S in the middle of graph.
- BTC volatily is still low ( around 15ish)
- i didn't find any convincing divergences yet.
- The PA range have been respected almost perfectly.
- it seems like a consolidation between 60 to 70k+.
- BTC tried to break 70k++, 5 Times exactly.
- Soon or later a breakout will happen ( next could be 85k$ ish )
- Halving is still young and the decoupling not yet started.
- if we dip under 60k.
- 50k is next small support.
- 40k is a strong support.
- very simple.
- There's a time for trading and a time for waiting.
Happy Tr4Ding!
BTC Price Action- Quick update and not a price prediction, just to give a general idea.
- Timeframe is only H4 ( and i don't like too much small TF, lot of noise there)
- Just to monitor the PA between 72k$ ish and 60k$ ish.
- this PA could form a ranging consolidation to the next leg.
- if BTC dip again, the next support is around 50k$ ish.
- Keep things simples.
- I don't scalp, nor leverage, but if u want to gamble.
- First you need to know " Where to Gamble ".
- Don't forget Halving is very close.
- BTC Volatility will grow faster.
- BTC.D not yet maxed imo.
Happy Tr4Ding !
Bitcoin Timeline- i always said that this bullrun looks much more as 2015 - 2018.
- 2019 - 2022 BearMarket was disrupted by Covid.
- Double top ATH (end 2021) was combined with a large divergence.
- Consider that the first 2021 ATH was the real one.
- this graphic is not a price prediction but you can consider it as almanac.
- if story repeats next ATH would be before end of 2025.
- 2026 BearMarket will back.
- Check Columns + dates.
- Compare.
- Deduct.
Happy Tr4Ding!
Bitcoin Halving Timeline- The next bitcoin halving is expected to occur in April 2024, when the number of blocks hits 740,000. It will see the block reward fall from 6.25 to 3.125 bitcoins.
- this is a different view of using Bollinger Bands, when Bands are drastically falling, Bullrun is starting.
- i took as timelines the older bullruns. ( 21 bars - 25 bars )
- Take it easy, logic is still a theory.
- Patience will reward.
Happy Tr4Ding !