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Exploring Auction Market Theory in Forex TradingAuction Market Theory (AMT) is a conceptual framework used to understand the dynamics of financial markets, viewing them as auctions where buyers and sellers interact to determine prices. Although the AMT was initially developed to understand & analyse price action movements in the stock market, some of its core concepts can also be applied to any market, including forex. Within the forex market, currency pairs are traded 24/5, with price driven by a multitude of factors such as economic data releases, geopolitical events, and market sentiment. Despite this complexity, AMT provides a framework for understanding market dynamics through the concepts of value, balance, and imbalances . Value represents the equilibrium price at which buyers and sellers agree on the fair value of an asset. Market balance occurs when supply and demand are roughly equal, resulting in stable price ranges, while imbalances arise from deviations from this equilibrium due to shifts in market sentiment or unexpected events. These imbalances can create trading opportunities for astute traders who can identify them and act accordingly. Lets now take a look into how this can be visually identified on a line chart using only price action. Example 1 On the left, we can see an area of market balance. This is usually evident when the market is range bound as we can see in this case. The midpoint of the range is the point of equilibrium. Value can be interpreted as the equilibrium price at which buyers and sellers agree on the fair value of a currency pair. This equilibrium is constantly shifting as new information becomes available and market participants reassess their expectations. When these expectations shift as a result of either economic data releases, geopolitical events, and/or market sentiment, price shifts away from the balanced price range and creates an imbalance within the market. Identifying value areas are important because these can act as an area of future support/resistance for price. Notice how in this example, after price displaces from the balanced range, it later came back and found support near the fair value within that range. Practical Application One practical application of AMT in forex trading is through the analysis of price action and market profile. By observing how price behaves at different levels and how volume interacts with price movements, you can gain insights into market sentiment and potential areas of support and resistance. For example, if a currency pair consistently fails to break above a certain resistance level despite multiple attempts, it may indicate strong selling pressure at that level, presenting an opportunity for short trades. Conversely, if a currency pair finds strong support at a particular price level, traders may look for buying opportunities as the market reverts to equilibrium. To conclude, Auction Market Theory offers a valuable framework for understanding the dynamics of the forex market. By analysing price action, volume, and market profile through the lens of AMT, you can gain a deeper understanding of market sentiment and identify potential trading opportunities. While no theory can guarantee success in trading, incorporating Auction Market Theory into your analysis can help you make more informed trading decisions. Please leave a comment if you've found this post helpful or if you have any questions. Happy Trading
Editors' picks
FXOPEN:XAUUSDEducation
by Pips4Breakfastx
6
$ETH and $BTC Price Level in USD to achieve $ETHBTC ATHI'm going to put this straight forward simple. BINANCE:ETHBTC , essentially representing the price ratio of Ethereum to Bitcoin, serves as a key indicator of market dynamics between these two leading cryptocurrencies. Due to the recent Break Of Structure on this Chart, I was curious enough, at what prices are we looking at in USD, in order for the ATH to break. Last ATH was on June 12th, 2017. Prices at that ATH were following: ETH: $414.8 BTC: $2980 According to my beloved friends ChatGPT, he could give me many scenarious, at which the ATH at 0.15636 would have be broken. Regarding of the multiplier, you get a different answer, here few very possible for me at this stage of market. Multiplier: 1.5 New Price of ETH: $3,766 New Price of BTC: $24,085 Multiplier: 1.7 New Price of ETH: $4,269 New Price of BTC: $27,302 Multiplier: 1.9 New Price of ETH: $4,771 New Price of BTC: $30,513 Multiplier: 2.0 New Price of ETH: $5,022 New Price of BTC: $32,118 Multiplier: 2.2 New Price of ETH: $5,524 New Price of BTC: $35,329 Multiplier: 2.4 New Price of ETH: $6,026 New Price of BTC: $38,539 This might be the biggest signal, showing Ethereum has a lot of potential in the upcoming Altcoin Season / Bullmarket. Not trying to convince anyone, just speculating on some interesting numbers. Feel free to come up with more different scenarious. 100k for BTC & 15k for ETH might also be possible :D
by luxorif
Confluence / Best Fit Theory I've always had a strategy of using horizontal support and resistances as well as finding a downwards and upwards trendline that can be duplicated and still hit multiple swing points amongst different timeframes. Think of it as angled supports/resistances. After having all these lines on the chart you can quickly see how often the various crosses act as a magnet for the price, but the lines create too much "noise", so I decided to turn my lines into channels. I then noticed the areas where the different zones crossed stuck out even easier and decided to mark them with circlesm After all the rough marks I thought it'd be interesting to plot a rough line trying to stay near the middle of each "column" treating the circles as a magnet for price. I'll update as time rolls on, but I think there's enough here to make this a pretty decent strategy!
Long
by brettjessen
1
ATOM is Recharging the Fuel for its flight to CosmosHey there! So I've just seen an amazing analysis of BINANCE:ATOMUSDT by the "Swallow Crypto" trading team named SwallowPremium on TradingView (I'd give you the link but my rating doesn't give me a chance yet, so just look at the linked Idea) . Shout out to you guys! And I've found some more nuances to it I'd like to share. The guys suppose we might be right at the Liquidity grab zone right now, and go up from here, as we've got to the same zone where we've been in June within a quick spike down and I totally agree with them. However, looking on a bigger picture, June 22' zone seems a lot more interesting for the big guys to enter, having in consideration this green indicator that shows Big Buys. We're currently facing Medium buys already, so the Fuel is slowly recharging, but it's still hard to name this zone as the Gas Station. I will update you when the Big Guys will come in, so you can just follow me to be updated. My guess is that we've Just been welcomed in the Entrance zone that started on 7,1 but may go deeper all the way to ˜5,8 or even ˜5,5 and will be formed within the next month or two within the tip of almost 1 year old Descending Wedge and from there we'll make a good old breakout. However, i don't consider ATOM to be a short speculation project, so getting in by now and DCA-ing within the dips sounds cool to me. P.S. Zooming out to the on-cycle view and considering 2023 not to be a final bottom, theoretically we currently are in the wedge inside of the wedge. If so, we will break out to ˜14,5 and go down to the Nadir... To the zones where "crypto is dead" will return back. To sub $2 ATOM.. Oh man I wonder if it's just the fantasy of the trippy mind or is it Groening mode on full send mode. What do You think? 👁️ A.I.Vision
by A_I_Vision
3
DOW JONES US30 :BULLS DEFENDING THEIR ZONEThe Dow closed 540 points higher on Friday, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 were up 1.8% and 2.2%, respectively, boosted by a sharp rebound in regional banks and solid jobs report that tempered fears of a recession. PacWest and Western Alliance rebounded sharply by 81.7% and 49.3%, leading regional banks’ gains after JPMorgan upgraded Western Alliance, Zions Bancorp and Comerica in a note and stated the three banks appear “substantially mispriced” in part due to short-selling activity. Also, investors welcomed positive earnings from Apple, pushing its stock up 4.7%. On the data front, the US nonfarm payrolls and wage growth accelerated more than expected in April indicating that the US economy remains strong, challenging the expectation that the Federal Reserve rate-hike cycle would end. On a weekly basis, the Dow and S&P 500 lost 1.5% and 0.9%, while Nasdaq gained 0.1% and hit its 37-week high. Technical (1) 31500 and 32615 are the next possible buying zones where Bulls will attack the Bears. The Maket Bias is Bullish, but the momentum is slowing down....(profit taking) Inceasing volume and higher momentum will bring back the DOW to 34597 (1) . The volume has more powerfull shifts, meaning that more participants start to push DOW higher. In case the Bulls hold this zone the next taget will be 35659 ( 2) and then 36968 (3) FED´s Plan could send DOW 45099( Target1) probably in 2nd Quarter 2024 and to 54695 (Target2) in 2025-2026 (4) Profit Taking over the weekend could send DOW at the beginning of the next week to 32473. (5) In case the Maket loses this zone the next retracement aea will be 31464 (6) Last Resort: Eveything below 31287 will be the last chance for the Bulls to defend their positions 30880 30332 29164 28651 SHORT SET-Up: If the Market breaks this area ,then the Bears will aggessively take control over the market. The pice will soar to around 24000 very fast ( See 7) and losing that zone will bring Dow back to 22598 and then 20593 (See 8)
CAPITALCOM:US30Long
by DaveBrascoFX
Crash Game TheoryI have done a lot of crash game theory on trading view in the past. It's one of my passions about technical analysis. Here are my working theories for structure and H&S retracement prior to 2021 QE. -------- My first was the Power of 3, I don't know a single analyst that didn't predict something similar for 2022. OCT 2021 Here I started my website and linked it in my ideas and the idea got removed. FEB 2022 I'm not sure if you can see it, but I will repost it because it has a key weakness that resulted in big convexity to the upside for a period of weakness. I plan to publish more about it. If you can't see it, let me know in the comments below. I was a tad bit early on the following structure call, but the follow through was key to identifying bottoms I posted in the past months. AUG 2022 I added a bit of Fibonacci time to the growing magnitude of structures forming that the shoulders mirror from QT recovery of the Covid pandemic. SEP 2022 If you don't believe in H&S structure theory, The trump inflection line is a must read. As a reminder. This is all Market Game Theory. It's impossible to tell when or even if the market will crash again.
AMEX:SPYShort
by SPYvsGME
10
🎲 Elliott Wave Pattern: Combination 🌊●● Combination ( CMB ): "Double Three" ❗❗ Rules: ● A “double three” combination comprise two corrective patterns separated by one corrective patternin the opposite direction, labeled Ⓧ . The first corrective pattern is labeled Ⓦ , the second Ⓨ . ● A "double three" combination comprises (in order) a single zigzag and a flat, a flat and a single zigzag , a flat and a flat, a single zigzag and a triangle or a flat and a triangle . ● Wave Ⓧ appears as a zigzag or flat. (TWEWA) ● Wave Ⓧ always retraces at least 90 percent of wave Ⓦ . ● Combinations have a sideways look. With respect to waves Ⓦ and Ⓨ in a double three, only one of those waves in each type of combination appears as a single zigzag . ● Combinations can occur in the same wave positions as flats and triangles (except for the triangle subwave) but cannot occur in waves Ⓦ and Ⓨ . ❗ Guidelines: ● Wave Ⓧ is often 123.6-138.2% the Ⓦ wavelength, less often wave Ⓧ retraces 161.8% or more. Don't expect wave Ⓧ to be more than 261.8% of wave Ⓦ . (TWEWA) ● Wave Ⓧ is usually a single or multiple zigzag. ● When a zigzag or flat appears too small to be the entire wave with respect to the preceding wave (or, if it is to be wave ④ , the preceding wave ② ), a combination is likely. ☝ Notes: ● An expanding triangle has yet to be observed as a component of a combination. __________________________ 🔗References: Elliott Wave Principal 2005 Trade Waves / Elliott Waves Analysis (TWEWA) 📚 Elliott Wave Guide & Ellott Wave Archive ⬇️⬇️
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by TradeWaves-EWA
Wave Auction Theory & WHY it worksSup, this is the 30th & the last post that concludes all the previous ones, and finally reveals the name how I've called all this - wave auction theory. Well, me as a creator of all this (or more like a mixer, a DJ lol) I think about it more as a theorem, but that's for nerds and geeks to work it out, me I just wanna flexx. If you take a look at all existing market theories their main thing is they all attempt to divide market activity into parts. Patterns, El waves, Wyckoff market states, then what Steidlmayer created (I call it Interval Auction Theory, since he divided market activity in parts by days, weeks, months etc). The main problem with is all these concepts (maybe except the last one) dem are not well defined, and they apply on the fractal market something that the highest resolution of this fractal (raw tick chart) doesn't have. Wave auction theory ain't superimposing any exogenous structures on the market, such as "crowd behaviors", nah, it doesn't guess and predicts anything, it derives the principles and structures from the sequences of fundamental particles of the market - ticks, and it can be used fully on this fundamental resolution. This is the most fundamental principle how you can divide market activity without any subjectivity: waves and levels. Btw, indirectly, we also gain the interval size information by choosing the right resolutions, while interval auction theory disregards sequence of events (read my post about market & volume profiles). Why it all works It's a lil bit recursive kind of thing, you need to read all the statements below multiple times in different order, then your brain will start making the whole picture out of it, and finally things will come together, you'll feel that "snap" in your head. It's the best I can do. * Market is fractal => all the principles propagate through all the resolutions; * Market is a feedback loop, market is ALL of us together, that famous "composite operator" that Wyckoff tried to explain to people around him, that composite operator is All of us - the collective; * Each individual entity in the collective has different voting power = better you operate = better the market = more revenues & capital you have = more voting power you have; * We all have all the same data => we can gain as much information as there is in the data; * Data on every resolution has information where it is, it was, or it will be cheap or expensive, every1 gains it with different degree of precision, but essentially every1 gains the same info because it's the same market & same data; * The only thing that works all the time in all the cases is being an operator (a market maker) aka you buy cheap and sell expensive; * Market making happens on all the resolutions, be it 1 minute or 1 week chart, on the former it might be one dude with 100 shares, on 1W it might be 100k dudes with 100 shares, the collective is always there, even on yearly charts; * More data & information you have, the more question of "what's going to happen in the future" transforms into the question of "what IS happening NOW"; * market works on the principle I call "GTC Naive" (good till cancel Naive forecast), meaning that "the stuff's gonna continue the same way UNTIL there's an event/evidence that'll change it"; We all make the future, how can we not know what we're making ourselves if we have the info and exogenous factors are not numerous and secondary at best, and the system itself is quazi-closed? Still gonna try to analyze log returns? xD Everything is already decided, we've decided all of that ourselves having the same data & same info xdddd All the prophecies are self fulfilling prophecies by definition lmao, they are consequences of sequences of choices made by every1 through all the timeline. While loosing precision we gain generality => are able to understand what IS happening NOW. Not even contra intuitive aye? The good side point of all this is that now you can rewatch Matrix movies (all of dem) and finally understand the dialogs between Neo and The Oracle (the parts her telling him the choice is already made). Coming back to the theme, I share all this because I think that markets are sadly unhealthy, there's ENORMOUS room for liquidity provision for centuries to come on Ks of assets. Better we gonna operate, more clients = more volume will come to the markets => better for all of us. The last several things I wanna share: 1) You can approach designing an automated agent (a bot) by following principle, smth I call "sMATEs framework"; - s: selection of assets that will end up in your masterlist; - M: management - choosing between the most potent timeframes & assets within the assets in masterlist; - A: analytics, seeing what's happening on your chosen data, choosing the signal generation method aka strategy accordingly; - T: trading, generation the actual signals based on the strategy chosen before; - E: execution, processing & fine tuning the actual executions based on the signals; -s: sizing: choosing the quantities based on equity control and what the market can give. The two small Ss are the only levels where you need to use ML. Reinforced learning for sizing based on order book & equity chart of a given agent. Then you can use ML & AI to form the masterlist, based on what you want. Generally you're interested in action or as I say in MEAT (ain't no vegan bruh sorry). 2) Each market has its own main cycle set: set of properly chosen optimal resolutions & time frames & rolling window lengths (no, there's nothing to optimize there & no need in dynamic lengths). I think you can figure it out reading all the posts & studies I've posted lately. I can give a hint: if you want to divide smth, you always try to divide it by 5 first. If you can't by 5, then by 4. If you can't by 4, then by 6. If you can't by 6, then by 3. If you even can't by 3, then by 7. And omg if you can't by 7, then in theory it's by 2, but not on our planet with our modern time system. Look at the 2 centuries of S&P chart in this post and see what I see. 3) If you a coward, or an overconfident prick, or a cheater, or a lier, or a snitch, you wont't succeed. You'll succeed if you're real & legit, in this case it's only a matter of time. From there it seems like my path goes somewhere else, but this is the way, all good TV, was fun. Remember, there's no noise, only the truth
SP:SPXEducation
by gorx1
1
DASH May Have Found The Strong SupportDASH may have found the strong support, as we see it recovering within an impulsive five-wave cycle from Elliott wave perspective. DASH with ticker DSHUSD is bouncing strongly and in an impulsive fashion away from the lows and it’s just about to break channel resistance line. It means that ending diagonal within wave 5 of (C) on a daily chart can be completed and bottom already in place, however, keep in mind that first bullish evidence is only above 69 region. In the 4-hour chart we are tracking now a minimum three-wave (A)/(1)-(B)/(2)-(C)/(3) recovery that can send the price higher within wave (C) or maybe even wave (3), but ideally after a pullback in wave (B)/(2) which may show up as soon as it completes a five-wave rally within wave (A)/(1). Happy trading!
POLONIEX:DASHUSDLong
by ew-forecast
6
Finding your optimal performance 🏃‍♂️Most traders spend a good bit of time looking at charts. Well here is a chart we traders should all take a look at. The chart shown is the Yerkes-Dodson Law. The Yerkes-Dodson law is a proposition that people perform best at intermediate levels of arousal, and that performance is lower at high or low levels of arousal. The theory behind this is visually represented by the graphic in this idea. No arousal levels or a bored/laidback approach to life will mean no stress but no real performance in what you are trying to achieve or do. However when arousal and stress gets too high by pushing to hard, performance starts to decrease. It's about finding the right balance to achieve an optimal performance. A certain level of stress about what you are trying to achieve motivates you to study, learn or train in order to do your best. A sportsperson has to get bumped up before an event as well as train hard, But getting to worked up and training to hard could cause a decrease in performance when it comes to the event. Pushing not hard enough to pass an exam will lead to a fail as you haven't studied or don't care, But also pushing to hard could lead to a fail as you've let stress and anxiety take over forgetting everything you studied. Moderate levels of arousal is best for overall performance. This theory can be applied to your trading. Take a non interested approach or bored approach and you performance in this area will be affected. Less potential profits etc. Get to focused on your trading or trade to hard could lead to poor performance along with a load of stress in your life. You as an individual will have to self reflect and determine where you fit on the curve in the idea graphic. If you fell more success, achievement and happiness can be had, by all means crack on and go for it! However, if you are getting to a point where you feel you might have reached your limit, it could well be time to dial it back a bit. Don’t push to hard for it that you go down the opposite side of the curve. This theory can be applied to every aspect in your life by using it to balance all aspects of your life will also help your trading as well as work, relationships and everything else we all go through day to day. Thanks for taking time to read this. Darren 🙌
Education
by pow_removetheguesswork