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Bitcoin Daily Update (day 264)I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. My recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day Chart led to the following calls: < $5,750 by 11/15/2018 & my prediction for the bottom is $2,718 by 1/20/19 | My Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - Monthly Chart closely mirrored my price and time targets | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018. Previous analysis: “I was expecting a strong bounce yesterday to take us into a resistance cluster at $5,200, mainly due to the bullish marubozu on the 4h followed by the high volume hammer. I am not particularly happy with the price action since then.” Position: Long spot BTC from $4,225 | Short ETHBTC from 0.03109 | Short LTCBTC from 0.00752 | Short EOS:BTC from 0.0008057 Patterns: Bear pennant $3,101 target Horizontal support and resistance: Support at $4,200 should turn into resistance | $4,000 is key support BTCUSDSHORTS: Trending up nicely and still room to go before major resistance Funding Rates: Shorts pay longs 0.0463% Short term trend (4 day MA): Closed below, now entire candle is below Medium term trend (9 day MA): Very surprised that we did not retest 9 MA in the last 24 - 48 hours Long term trend ( 34 day MA): Turning over Overall trend: Bear Volume: The volume is significant on the pennant breakdown FIB’s: Start at $1,000 and connect to ATH’ and 0.886 = $3,164 Candlestick analysis: 4h looks like 3 black crows to me | Weekly is shaping up to be a marubozu Ichimoku Cloud: Haven’t even retested 1h cloud TD’ Sequential: Binance is showing a r2 < r1 after a completed setup. Bitmex is showing a r7 | Weekly r2 < r1 Visible Range: If we breakdown $4,000 then there should be significant support at $3,750. If we breakdown that area then I would expect a fall to $3,100 Price action: 24h: -8.6% | 2w: -34.95% | 1m: -34.95% Bollinger Bands: Failed to closed inside the daily band, now appears to be getting stuck to the bottom Trendline: Failed to retest the 8 day MA and also failed to retest 4h trendline. Is capitulation coming? Daily Trend: Bear Fractals: Down printed at $4,000. If that breaks, the next down fractal is at $3,559 however I do not expect that to hold due to the gap in the volume profile. RSI: Since we have not gotten a divergence we can still make another leg down even though we are this oversold. Stochastic: Recrossed bearish, very bad sign for bulls Summary: Over the last couple days I have been buying spot BTC’ and longing ETH:USD while also shorting alts against BTC’. I then exited my long at a nominal loss and opened a short at a much worse price. May seem like bad trading but it actually brings up some important topics that I haven’t talked enough about: position sizing, risk:reward and hedging. Position Size: There is very big a difference between taking a large position and taking a small position. Each should be done when the circumstance calls for it. For example: great risk:reward and betting with the trend. Risk:Reward: If retail business is “location, location, location” then I believe trading is risk:reward, risk:reward, risk:reward. If you are able to find positions with a 5:1 ratio, or better, then you don’t have to be right very often to crush any market. Hedging: I do not do nearly as much of this as I should / could and it is something I intent to get better at. However sometimes there are trades that appear to be profitable by themselves as well as being a form of a hedge. Do to what is outlined above I have been taking out large shorts on alts and I simply could not pass up buying the horizontal support of BTC’ and ETH’. I even tried signing up for a new exchange to leverage trade LTC:USD. I was quick to get out after breaking down support and after seeing further action I liked (ETH’ appears to be breaking down horizontal support with a large gap in volume profile, whereas that is not the case for BTC’). Happy Thanksgiving I love you all!
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PShort
by Sawcruhteez
2
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 257)I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. My recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day Chart led to the following calls: < $5,750 by 11/15/2018 & my prediction for the bottom is $2,718 by 1/20/19 | My Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - Monthly Chart closely mirrored my price and time targets | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018. Previous analysis: Took partial profit on BTC & ETH shorts and getting prepared for three potential outcomes from here Position: Short BTC:USD from $6,353 & Short ETH:USD from $196.32 Patterns: Broke down phase 2 of they hyperwave Horizontal support and resistance: R: $6,615 | S: $5,200 & $5,400 BTCUSDSHORTS: Shooting star from today is interesting. However there is still plenty of room to go before resistance Funding Rates: Shorts pay longs 0.0866% Short term trend (3 day MA): bear Medium term trend (8 day MA): bear Long term trend ( 34 day MA): bear Overall trend: Bearish and longest term MA’s are starting to roll over (128 is my favorite) Volume: Most volume we have seen in two consecutive days since March FIB’s: High of Feb 20th and low of Feb 6th) 1 = $5,863 | 1.272 = $4,262 | 1.4140 = $3,426 | 1.618 = $2,224 Candlestick analysis: Daily closed a dragonfly on high volume (usually a strong indication of a bounce) However the current candle quickly fell below the body, would not expect that to precede bounce. Ichimoku Cloud: 1h shows resistance from $5,500 - $5,800 | Daily cloud is moving down quickly TD’ Sequential: 4h hit a r9 and now it is on a g2 | Current candle is a red 9. Would love to see a perfected 9 + bull div in the RSI. Visible Range: If price can’t support $5,200 then I expect us to fall right through $5,000 due to the gap in volume Price action: 24h: -0.62% | 2w: -12.69% | 1m: -14.01% Bollinger Bands: Watch for weekly to close below bottom band as confirmation of bearish momentum Trendline: Connect top of May 5th to top of July 24th. I expect this to be the top of the down trend. Daily Trend: Chop Fractals: Watch for weekly to close below down fractals. Weekly Up fractal at $6,800 should not get retestest (although I wouldn’t say the same about $6,300 due to the 2014 bear trap pointed out in yesterdays post. RSI: Watching closely for bull div’ on daily Stochastic: Daily and 4h buy signal should not be overlooked. However the 3d sell signal and weekly posture are more important to me. Summary: Not much to add from yesterday’s post which summed up my thoughts for the next 1m - 1y. One thing that I did want to talk about is the craziness going on with the alts right now. Seeing Bcash, XRP’, EOS’, LTC’, ADA’ and TRX’ in the green while BTC’ and ETH’ are in the red is a huge trap! If the two market leads are selling off then it is only a matter of time before the others follow. Do not let anyone tell you nonsense about “alts’ holding strong” or “the flippening”. Instead take a look at where LTC’ fell too in the last BTC’ bear market. Stay away from buying / longing those coins over the next couple days / weeks, regardless of how tempting it may seem. You will see bull flags, resistance breakthroughs, thin order books and everyone trick in the book. Do not fall for any of it! Understand that when fear / capitulation / depression sets in with the market leaders then there will be a serious flight to safety from the alts. That will happen in the blink of an eye and it will completely wreck many of the traders who go rich over the last couple years doing nothing more than longing alts’. On the flip side if you understand the market and know how to trade then this dynamic could present some opportunities that appear too good to be true.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
BTC long term view! We still can have a quick drop (or not, because the price has already dropped below the impulse wave to form a B wave) to form a B wave before we reach the C wave to complete an expanding flat correction. Then we should lock in some profit, because we will more likely have a sharp drop to complete the regular flat correction of the big uptrend forming a wave 2 before we bull again for a 3 big impulse wave and 4 and 5.... btc is not in a bubble, btc is in a sustained starting uptrend guys ! (learned from W.Akhezane and A.Mangal wave theory)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by DrOutifa
BTCUSD Possible Long Opportunity We saw that our current "Sell" Signal on our indicator had given us a nice decline in price as anticipated. A 9.15% profit return was produced after the signal was established. We expect the price to eventually reverse, give a buy signal and shoot off to the upside. However, this is a technical theory. Technical Analysis shows a triangle range, thus price has started to compress near the narrow end. We do anticipate a breakout eventually. Therefore, a possible "BUY" opportunity may take place. BTCUSD on the 2H chart using the Income Trend Signals Indicator: Currently we can perceive that we are presently in an "Avoid" Signal for BTCUSD on the 2H timeframe. However, momentum and strength are starting to increase and we do anticipate a strong "BUY" signal to generate. To all our traders currently using our indicators, watch closely for the signals to form, also await for confirmation before making any decisions and taking any trades. Play this move appropriately. -Updates soon to come. -CoderX Studio
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by TradingInsite
3
A Theory about Bitcoin"Short now, and buy in at 5,600." Is what I would recommend if I were more confident in my analysis. I just want this post to point out a few things. Bitcoin hasn't reached a long-term RSI around 44 in quite some time. Bitcoin RSI was only this low in 2016 Q3-4. The prices was roughly $560. So why does this matter? The answer is entirely speculation. My current understanding of bitcoin is that multiplying by 10 to the price doesn't change what makes bitcoin special, the technology speaks for itself. Money should not be easy to create hence the surmounting difficulty of minting and mining bitcoin (as well as various other mineable alts). This also being attributed to the bi-yearly reward halving (ie 2018 bubble & 2020 www.bitcoinblockhalf.com ). Here is where things get a little more esoteric. If a short bull run in 2016 corrects to 560, then who's to say we won't see a bottom of 5,600. What is so special about $5,600 and $560? Psychology my dear Watson. I remember a friend of mine saying, "Do you know how long I was waiting for 5k bitcoin?" It was a huge price point for him as well as many strong-handed investors. What we are all waiting for is "capitulation," where bears and bulls cannot decide on which way to go. For bitcoin however, it's obvious the answer will be to go up.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by yourkardashian
Bitcoin's Past Bear Market vs Today. Sell Call. Winter is ComingThe bottom is, in my humble opinion, is not in. Looking back at the price action of BTCUSD in early 2014 we can take a look inside the most recent long term bear market and use that as a reference for our current bear market in bitcoin. Bitcoin and crypto has seen a massive influx of new investors and frankly what we in the space refer to as 'dumb money'. They came in thinking that bitcoin could only ever go up and so they bought and bought until their bags were full and their wallets empty and not long after they finished their New Years eve bash and they notice that they are feeling lighter. They reach into their pockets and pull out their crypto bags to realize that they are disinagrating before their eyes. Now many have sold their bags holdings and it has caused the fall in price, but what we have not seen yet is the mass exodus style selling that comes only from the weary and teary eyed young gamblers that flew to close to the sun and got burned by the aura of infinite lambos and mad riches. When these poor souls sell they are selling it to the whales that have already sold a good amount of their coins and now are waiting paitently on the sidelines for the weak minded to putter out and hand them their heavy bags for next to nothing. Those who tell you to HODL are probably the same ones who have already sold of a decent % of their holdings up above 10k now they are looking for a new base to accumulate coins from. There are three basic cycles to every market and they can be seen in just about any chart. They are the Accumulation Phase, Seen in the trading range of about $300-200 marked by black s/r lvls. Another sign of an Accumulation Phase is the sideways and below average volume. Majority of the volume is Whales and small enthusiasts like myself who dont care about price action (atleast at the time) This nearly year long period back in 2015/16 was the latest accumulation Phase. Finally it broke out of its 100 dollar range on MASSIVE VOLUME! Here is an in-depth view of what the Public Phase contains This is when your buddy probably told you about how he heard about some guy who made tons of money in crypto so you and him should think about doing it. This is where many of the timid retail investors start to trickle in slowly at first. Testing the waters and swimming with the new found Bull. But once these timid retail investors start making some money they get very loud quickly and all of a sudden more and more people start funneling in pushing the price higher and higher at greater rates. Until the Whales decide that they are ready for their long awaited pay day and they start selling into the buying madness that has ensued. This will cause ripples in the price as all of the coins which were bought up much much lower are sold for tens of thousands of dollars. This is a new Phase known as the Distribution phase and for obvious reason. here the whales distribute coins to the retail gamblers stopping new ATHs from being hit and soon lower highs and lower lows follow. This results in a sell of and eventually once there is blood in the streets you start buying again even if its your own blood, as a famous Rothschild once said. But how do we know when there is blood in the streets??? Look for the volume to tell you. IF your not a whale learn to whale watch. ANd follow those whales. the largest daily Volume spike in the history of bitcoin was at the bottom in the early days of 2015 below $200 a coin. Wait for a similar volume day before you try to catch this falling knife known as bitcoin.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by coltsrule7
2
XBTUSD: Expecting a retrace into buy zoneIt's still unclear if we get the retracement wave but we are very close to a significant resistance area and failed to break past it the last couple of days. Chances of some retracement waves are going up as we speak. I'm looking to buy the retracement wave when it enters my buy zone, and will manage the position (take some profit) in the target zone add a trailing stop for the remainder of the position. ladder buys from: 6648 - 6582 target: 6699 - 6762 (depends on price action in the area)
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PLong
by Kroesmeister
2
USD/CAD LOLI know you can't see the chart, neither can I. But what I can tell you is that the 134.00 price level (basically the .786 from B-C high to low, is a key fibonacci level for many reasons, pitchforks, multiple trend fibs. I've looked at this pattern every way I can and it labels corrective every time. We may even get a nice sell from here, but that's a totally different discussion pattern wise. But basically, if Ucad hits 134.00, it should react down and there should be a long term sell to downside, at least to correct 50-62% of this upward pattern with the possibility of breaking the low. But I am talking about some long term stuff here. It looks like it is consolidating above trend line for a sell, but I am not completely convinced just yet.
by thillygoosth
Price Rise Today was ACCURATELY forecast YESTERDAY - now what..I hate to say I TOLD YOU SO... Well, I fooled myself this morning.... Woke up and thought, what's with the price rise? Then I went back to YESTERDAY's CHART and saw I already predicted this little mini rise... and wrote a blurb about it ON THE CHART. And this was NOT a clone detail of the Historical Pattern (Formation A) How did I derive the short rise? by considering.. - Trend Lines of Support and Resistance.. that SHOULD interfere with the older pattern - Upwind regression analysis web page (Dynamic Forecaster for BTC) - Good news articles about where BTC is heading in June-July to December. The TA charters who denied this current trend are coming around. They are UNAPOLOGETICALLY remapping as if they had never been wrong -- Let me depart some trader WISDOM -- When your TA is wrong and you are day trading.. BEING WRONG IS VERY EXPENSIVE
KRAKEN:ETHUSDShort
by TradeClass
19
Verge of Despair: (3) NON-TA theories where BTC will go in JuneWILD THEORY EXPLAINED PART I - How I discovered WILD THEORY Most of you are probably thinking I am a crackpot conspiracy theorist. I do KNOW such people. Some are indeed gullible and some are crackpots. But one such friend of mine had his life threatened 3 times. Namely because of his outspoken nature and organization of various committees. His biggest theory is about the DEEP STATE. Trust me, if they threaten a 75 year old man with no money, they are serious people with a big agenda. I saw photos of one of the latest attacks. It's a big wrench that is deeply embedded in his car tire. The mechanic who changed the tire could not pull it back out. The kinetic force required to insert this wrench... through the metal radials and rubber is incredible. It was a warning. Told my friend to STOP telling me about these people, because I will not join his crusade. More important... At the same time this happened, I bought crypto for my first time. Two ETH coins at $ 750 -- that I sold 3 weeks later at a $ 192 net profit. A new hobby was born.. whereby I also thought that would be the last mention of conspiracy theory. As a new trader, I had no technique.. Entered the market at the quivering correction in February 2018. Come March, the bears took over --- I lost close to $ 2,000. Desperate for a plan and method, I started placing rulers on charts... (Discovered rudimentary TA, without ANY HELP) Began looking for patterns. while hunting the internet for live price charts, etc. Found some chart TA forecasters on crypto news sites Most of them were unreliable, but I realized TA was a science Found that ETH followed BTC, started tracking BTC. Next... developed my own method of day trading. My losses reversed, began earning good money, got back all that was lost. As a student of sciences and academic scholarship winner at a recognized college... my instincts were to apply anything I ever learned... to seek patterns. The first patterns I saw looked wave-like. These were fractals. I watched for fractals... and that helped a little. Then I started paying attention to the news. Fractals acted up big time during main news events, etc. Next came the Mt Gox court settlement... and the new Futures BTC market... Everything went to hell. But I did well.. because I noticed something weird.. which was unexplainable patterns that defied logic. However, I had to see these in my mind first They are hard to recognize, like shapes in clouds. More important, you have to see them BEFORE they finish forming. It's somewhat like naming a song tune by just hearing the first four notes. April was a great month... But now we were in this faux Bull market again. ( I will explain that later) Then came May. May defied most of the forecasters. So I began to assemble my Wild Theory. Wild Theory is based on fingerprints and anecdotal evidence. From these things, I was able to figure out where prices where heading... because I had a theory of what the END RESULT was going to be. I was now trading WITH the price manipulators.. and THINKING LIKE THEM. PART II WHO THEY ARE and THEIR AGENDA (To be continued)
KRAKEN:ETHUSD
by TradeClass