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Theresamay

Short GBPUSD Brexit deal trade initial entryToday the sentiment is that there will be significant pressure on the pound. Trumps comments that the Brexit deal is a good deal for the EU and that the UK may not be able to trade with the U.S. have initially trigged sterlings sell off this morning. Those comments have been watered down to an extent by a UK spokesperson clarifying that the UK can make trade deals with the US. All that in combination with the month end flows favoring the greenback I like a GBPUSD short from the 38.2 pull back of this mornings sell off. In addition this will be my first of a series of Pound shorts leading into the house of commons vote on the Brexit deal. The market seems fairly convinced that it will be rejected. This will drive sterling lower into the lead up to the event itself. I am going to be trading into this event. I feel the trade that has the most upside potential come the event proper is if the house approves the deal. The market is currently pricing in a rejection of the deal. If the house approves the deal there will be massive volatility as the market scrambles to price this unexpected turn of events. I will likely trade into the event with a series of trades and look to get in on the Monday before to take advantage of the expected spike. I will also be ready to close a short position and open a long position if the house in fact approves the deal.
Short
by FX_Trade_Plan
GBP/USD Fundamentals and Technicals pointing to Long OpportunityWe have recently broken above the downtrend line. I think the 1.30 price level will start to offer a strong support, just as the previous downtrend line will. I will be looking for a Take Profit at the 1.35 level. If the Brits get a decent deal - which is possible as the EU are beginning to see the negative impacts of a bad Brexit deal or even worse no deal - you may see traders picking up the Sterling for a major move higher. I believe that soon we will get some type of resolution to the Brexit negotiations, seeing as Theresa May has hinted a potential deal with Brussels is close by, This will be reason enough for the British pound to rally. Remember - Losses can exceed your initial investment, so trade carefully with the use of risk management. Good luck!
by StirlingBishop
GBPUSD 30min Strategy: Foul Play?Theresa May is expected to give unusual statements in today's session, some suggesting it may be linked to National Security. The immediate reaction was GBP weakness to the news, Manufacturing data countered. Based on the 30min chart GBPUSD has found some support. However, it has attracted some buyers, we suspected stops are being accumulated around the green line on the chart. It increases the odds for a whipsaw reaction in GBPUSD. Our preference would be waiting for further corrective gains before the weakness is expected to materialize. A 30min close to affirm a re-test of either price levels we highlighted on the chart is preferred. The key price regions are highlighted on the chart. Do note that this strategy is short-term and is for experienced technical traders.
Short
by DDMARKETS
GBPUSD - Massive bearish candleThe price has just touched the resistance level of the channel and we could see a massive bearish candle follow the touch of the resistance level, this is not solely because of the resistance is strong. This bearish candle has happened due to the UK parliament losing some of the main cabinet members over a disagreement about Brexit. These ministers did not agree with Theresa May about having a soft Brexit and have now decided to leave, this is a massive hit for the UK as Brexit negotiations still have to take place and the NATO meeting is getting closer and closer and the UK are lacking a strong government. This looks like it is going to have a negative impact on the pound.
Short
by JohnnyPurtoy98
GBPUSD Idea Hidden by TradingView since May 8th 2017After this idea was hidden by Tradingview for adding YouTube channel, I was very angry with them so I decided to move out of here. But I re-post this idea because it did exactly what I anticipated since May 8th 2017. Non of these movement are coincidence. What to expect now? If you see my twitter you will see where I sold and expected for this pair, meanwhile 1.2960 seems to be a good target and level to buy. Stay Tune. Follow my links to know more about. Cheers!!
by wildcreamlife
GBPUSD: Now we have confirmation for my stupid short idea...The technical chart has confirmed a weekly downtrend in the Pound as I expected, and despite being trailed out in profit, I'm looking to reenter shorts with force at market open, with a significant position size, aiming to risk 0.5-1% if the idea fails. In this news article, it's hinted that May will talk about a Hard Brexit in her Tuesday speech, which would give the bears some ammo to drive the pair down with momentum: www.bloomberg.com The fundamentals are strong for the dollar, and on a relative strength basis, the US dollar has the upper hand, both fundamentally and technically, which favors bearish trades in the $GBPUSD pair. Downside targets are signaled on chart. We have: 11 week 'Time at Mode' downtrend signal, confirmed on close last Friday, target is 1.13436 initially, to be hit before March 24th ideally. 13 day downtrend, continuation of the decline after the US dollar interest rate hike on December which kicked the decline off. After recently breaking down under the Presidential election key level and retesting it at the recent top, the Pound accelerated down, flashing the technical signal in my previous publication. It retested resistance and confirmed a daily downtrend on Friday. Targets are 1.18864 and 1.17693, to be achieved by Jan 31st or sooner. Keep an eye on these levels for a potential reaction in price. Also watch the strange flash crash day key levels, and the high and low of that day, since it may prove to be significant once again, although it's still a mystery what caused that event. A move above 1.21717 would invalidate the daily signal, and above 1.23854 the weekly signal would be rendered a failure, and immediate upside implied on a breakout of this resistance. Upside for such an event would be huge, since it would squeeze bears big time, sending the Pound up to 1.34406. I labeled this on chart, but it would be a shocking turn of events, and a lower probability. I'm open to going long if we break above this weekly zone, since the squeeze would result in a profitable trade, offsetting loss from bearish trades. Good luck! Ivan Labrie
Short
by IvanLabrie
27
GBP/USD Brexit UPDATE *Until Article 50 is Triggered*Good Morning, Afternoon and Evening Traders A week later from my post "Sterling heading for 1.21 level?", the cable has yet again pushed into the very low levels after UK Prime Minister Theresa May stated last week that triggering article 50 would mean the UK not having access to the single market. This wasn't great news for the cable at all, and consequently pushed the cable into eyebrow raising levels, previously seen in the October flash crash. What now? 1.21 appears to be the cables key support/resistance level, so that is most definitely a zone to look out for. The blue sloping trend-line has been broken, which I had mentioned If was broken would indicate further selling pressure into the 1.20 level. I am also looking for potentially a retest of the sloping support trend-line, as price action may have a short-term rally and then fall away back into the 1.20/1.19 level. I'm still remaining short in this market, and i will keep you all updated on any changes. Any questions or additional thoughts you want to add, feel more than free to comment below! More updates coming soon, Ike Okeke.
Short
by IkeOkeke
Lower in range. GBPUSD remains under pressureGBPUSD is finding difficulty extending the bounce from the 1.1450 low of October, with fresh sellers appearing just beneath the 1.2795 low of July and 1.2805/10 Fibonacci retracements. Prices are settling into consolidation, as studies turn mixed, but bearish background studies are intact, suggesting fresh downside risks in the coming months. A close below 1.2200 will open up 1.2000 and the 1.1950 year low of October 2016 , with potential for deeper reactions towards the 1.1880 low of May 1985 as the underlying bear trend from July 2014 keeps investors cautious. Negative longer term readings see risk of still deeper reactions towards 1.1000. A close above congestion around 1.2500 would help to improve price action, but a further close above the 1.2795-1.2810 barrier is needed to signal a more sustainable consolidation phase and turn investors neutral once again. Monthly Investors are Bearish.
by Michael_Macdonald-XATSUK
GBPUSD: STERLING STRENGTH MYTH? ARITCLE 50 ODDS - 50% NOT HAPPENMysterious sterling strength: 1. Sterling has managed to par losses and actually rise in past days despite a number of heavily weighted factors increasing GBP downside pressure e.g. MPC M. Weale switching to the doves, PMI/ Business Optimism 8yr lows, Sterling rates markets consistently pricing >25bps of cuts to the BOE base rate (details below), the median bank forecast of the Bank of England Policy change on the 4th of August is becoming ever more dovish (e.g. calls for >£50bn QE and more than 25bps of cuts by Banks). 2. Struggling to find answers I looked at the Article 50 odds/ Implied probability from the odds aggregator (oddschecker) - to my surprise, but in support of GBP top side I have seen the market shift aggressively in the last week - with odds of a 2016 signing falling to 16.5% from 35%, but more worryingly the odds of a 2018 or later or NOT AT ALL steepening aggressively to 50% from 30% . - 2018 or later or not at all is now the most probable outcome, worrying that this is even possible given the referendum was decided by the people in a democracy - how is this even possible? IMO it should have been mandated to be signed within a given period e.g. 1wk/ 1m. - Even more worrying is that T. May the newly elected PM, Pre-PM was a brexit Bull and vowed that exiting the EU was her top priority and she "saw it as a way to make Britain great again". However, now if you look at the news, she is somewhat of a Brexit bear, recently stating "The Article 50 will NOT be signed in 2016" - completely writing the front end of the curve off. 3. This is likely the potential driver of sterling strength as a delayed non-signing 1) increases the time until we actually leave the EU - given there is ALREADY a clause in the article 50 agreement that states there is a 2yr "cooling off/ negotiation period" where Britain's relationship with the EU will remain exactly the same for 2yrs once the article 50 is signed - so by not signing it until mid 2017 this means technically there will be 3yrs between Brexit vote and leaving which means three years of relatively unchanged economic conditions - thus this in mind why should GBP get weaker now/ in the near-term? 2) and in turn, the above reduces BOE cutting odds - if we're not leaving any time soon the economics should be relatively flat thus no easing needed which means less GBP near-term downside. 4. Also another potential sterling topside driver is the speculation that the BOE is coming underpressure NOT to cut rates by Retail Banks as by doing so it reduces their net interest margins (lower profitability) causing restructuring/ lay-offs in the industry - LLOYDS BANKING GROUP IS AXING 3,000 JOBS AND CLOSING 200 BRANCHES AS IT RACES TO CUT COSTS IN ANTICIPATION OF AN INTEREST RATE CUT - if considered a systemic risk this could seriously reduce the probability of BOE action. Though i think it is more of a isolated issue - Lloyds likely needed to restructure anyway based on already low profitability rather than as a direct function of a potential rate cut. It is almost laughable to think 3000 jobs are being cut because of a small 25bps cut alone. Trading implications: 1. Obviously this is a downer on GBP shorts, however, this is ONLY a suggestion for GBP strength - i could be over estimating the impact but the argument is nonetheless a solid one. 2. Still below 1.36 i stay a seller of rallies - and watch closely for the 4th of August when the BOE is expected to deliver easing which should move GBP$ to 1.25-1.28 where i will TP. - Current implied BOE bank rate cut probabilities are priced as the following: -Three month short sterling (GBP) rate - 66% probability of a 25bps cut, up from 64% on the 26th. -GBP Nominal OIS Spot rate - 84% probability of a 25bps cut on the 26th, up from 76% on the 25th -GBP 1m Fwd Nominal OIS Rate - 29bps 100% priced as of 26th, up from 26bps on the 25th.
by QuantumLogicTrading
5
BUY USDJPY @104 & SELL GBPUSD @1.33: RISK-ON, POLITICS, BOJ, BOEThe Federal Reserve's regulatory point man said work to address the lessons of the 2008 financial crisis won't be complete without better regulation of short-term funding both inside and outside the banking system. St Louis Fed President Jim Bullard may be the Fed's new super dove, but he's no pessimist, he says. Bullard is the lone Fed official forecasting just one additional rate increase, and expects modest growth over the next two and a half years. But he reiterated Tuesday he's not expecting the economy to head south. Trading Strategy 1. Given this I remain bullish on the $ in the medium term, despite this spike in risk-on which IMO is unlikely to last more than 2wks. In the immediate term I like long $yen as the best play ATM vs other expressions - with a target of 109, entry at 104 as 1) the markets have finally signalled they are ready for a recovery bull run, post the brexit risk-off/ safe haven rally - largley on the back of CB stimulus. I believe USDJPY has been the most sold risk-on asset, thus it is now ripe for buying; 2) JPY fiscal stimulus is likely to come; 3) BOJ is likely to deliver 10-20bps of cuts to its interest rate 4) we have broken the 104 "brexit seller resistance level" which has held since the vote - this break imo means we can now move to 109+ as the recovery leg before resuming lower; 5) the Fed Funds Rate curve continues to steepen across the curve but particularly aggressively in the front end (yesterday 10ys adding 5%) and as a result implied probabilities of hikes continue to rally across the 2016/17 tenors (Dec hike now 33.7% vs 29.2%Mon); 5) check the attached posts for long $jpy support 2. Secondly, short GBP$ is a trade i am closely eyeing.. I am a 70% seller at 1.32 (90% at 1.35) - short GBP rallies is the preferred trade as the BOE is likely to deliver easing in Aug that will drive us down to the 1.25 terminal rate that I have predicted - thus i am hoping we get some "poor information money" flows into GBP up to 1.34/5 going into Friday as 1) UK Political Uncertainty is eased - as Theresa May is the New PM starting Wednesday; 2) GBP buying on Thursday if the BOE doesn't cut rates, whilst I (and the market) believes an august cut is the likelihood instead, given the aggressive GBP selling these past weeks it is prudent to assume quite a large amount of money may/was be betting on a July Cut thus if this "disappoints" some of the market we could see cable trade higher to 1.34+; 3) Long GBP is the risk-on trade, so if risk holds up/ carries on rallying we could see GBP$ take us to 1.34+ - CB and Fiscal stimulus + the fact risk has been depressed for so long, i believe risk has the momentum to rally until the end of the week at least (next risk-rally then looks to 28th July for BOJ stimulus?) 3. The long $Yen and short GBP$ also acts as a dynamic hedge as the long UJ is the risk-on coverage, with the short cable the risk-off half - combining both semi-hedges your exposure, something i like to do when trading. FED Tarullo Speech Highlights - "the conditions for destructive runs that threaten financial stability could exist even where no institutions that might be perceived as too-big-to-fail are immediately involved" FED Bullard Speech Highlights - Bullard: An unemployment rate around 4.7%, gross domestic product growth of 2% and the Fed' preferred inflation gauge, the personal consumption expenditures index, at 2%. - "If there are no major shocks to the economy, this situation could be sustained over a forecasting horizon of two and a half years" - "we have no reason to forecast a recession given the current state of the US economy"
Long
by QuantumLogicTrading