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Thetaburn

Trade Plan 12/15/2022 TP1> if we manage to Trade/Bid above MAIN POC 4078, we can test > 4108 > 4141 > 4186 > 4207 > 4221 TP2> if we Open/Trade below MAIN POC 4078 > we can test > 4054 > 4035 > 3995 > 3980 > 3960 > 3934 > 3914 (LIS - Bulls Trapped) Volume Profile 12/14/2022 - Unfair High 4091 (Below Y High) FOMC DUMP, and no BUYERS. Volume accumulation setup > It is forming since yesterday when SELLERS were super aggressive, strong SELLERS entering their positions in Rotation Area, with a clear change on the Volume Profile TREND. Strong Sellers who were accumulating their positions are likely to defend their positions and their interests. So, when the price returns to the volume accumulation area > MAIN POC 4078 (12/14) and MAIN POC 4054 (12/13), Strong Sellers start to defend their positions aggressively. This means that strong buyers start aggressive buying activity to drive the price upwards again. Strong sellers defend their short positions by aggressive sell-off which moves the price lower again. Here is a picture to demonstrate this (Short trade scenario): *This is a 50/50 Game, trade plan & risk management and trade management is mandatory
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by IronMan_Trader
Is Option Buying a Loser Game ? The picture above is a LOTTO PLAY I took this morning, end up buying 4250 ES CALL 6DTE for an avg of $11 at 8:07am (we were trading around 4054 level) , after the report in 2 minutes ES spiked to 4180 and my options price went to $30 Great I was up +160%, but with IV CRUSH + MKT HEADING LOWER 50 points before the bell, my OPTIONS that I got before 8:10am were losing money already.... but how If my entry was at 4054 and we were trading almost +100 points higher ? - Because when you buy an option you have all the factors against you, the probability of success are too small, as you have TIME (Theta) against you + the IV (Implied Volatility) you have not only to be right, but rely on the trend to follow, every minute you are wrong you are losing... Even if the market is sideways and not moving, your options have expiration and every second count, so you better be a DIRECTIONAL HERO and NAIL the trade. So today I was up 160% and end up losing this trade !! Part of the Game, as I call this a LOTTO PLAY ! It was BAD LUCK today, YES and NO, lack of liquidity was another factor (when you trade ES OPTIONS), at this chart you can see there was no orders getting filled at 30, mine didn't get filled, only a lucky trader got out at 25.25 !! After that it was a DUMP and NASTY day! To answer the question, I would say it depends on how you TRADE, but Please don't get me wrong, I do day trade 99% of the time on the BUY SIDE (Buying CALL or SELLING PUT), but 99% of my long time frame trades are on the SELL SIDE of OPTIONS (Selling CALL or Selling PUT) to have probability in my favor. I hope this can help you to understand why most of the times you end up losing money on the BUY SIDE of OPTIONS, the GREEKS are against you !
CME_MINI:ES1!
by IronMan_Trader
Theta Machine - 12/07/2022THETA MACHINE UPDATE No New Trades Today I want VIX and IV to go higher so we can collect extra premium...if not tomorrow, by Friday I will increase the cost basis to +500, and Theta will be around $150/day. Overall POP = 84% POP = Probability of Profit *Next Week volatility can spike as we will have CPI (Dec 12) and FED (Dec 13). With that said, I will probably hedge with Micro Futures. *Quick TIP if you want to hedge your portfolio> +50 Delta = 1 /MES (Micro) +500 Delta = 1 /ES (Mini) My Delta Beta Weight now is around 100, so In order to hedge I need to Sell 2 Micro Futures (2x /MES)
CME_MINI:ES1!
by IronMan_Trader
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