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Thetamachine

SPY SWING TRADE $SPY Earnings Season Kick Off !! The trade I'm in its a bearish trade using a Debit Put Spread to keep THETA under control and hold the spikes if any. $SPY -100 X FEB 17 / 36 DTE / 370 PUT (SELL LEG) +100 X FEB 17 / 36 DTE / 380 PUT (BUY LEG) MAX LOSS = -$14,900 MAX PROFIT = +$85,100 *The goal / target is to collect at least 65%-70% of max profit around +$55,000 - When you use this strategy your MAX LOSS is capped, so even if SPY jump 100% the MAX LOSS is the SPREAD that I already PAID, so all we can do is HOLD and see if SPY during this 36 days can pull back to test the lows or just stay under $378.50 by Expiration Day for BE.
AMEX:SPYShort
by IronMan_Trader
5
TRADE PLAN 01/05/2023TP1> If we manage to Trade/Bid above MAIN POC 3863, we can go for 3880 > 3913 > 3924 > 3943 > 3965 > 3979 > 3995. >To the upside, the level I'm looking it right now is the 3860, that's the POC of those last 12 days, we need to trade/bid above so we can try to break the LIS 3913/3915, where BULLS are losing the battle. TP2> If we manage to Trade below MAIN POC 3863, we can visit 3841 > 3824 > 3800 > 3787 > 3766 > 3728. >To the downside, the level I'm looking is 3824, as we are already trading below 3960 12 days POC, so once we confirm below 3824, we have to break lower to find strong sellers to push below 3800, where BEARS are losing the battle. * We are trading in this 100 points RANGE from 3800 to 3900 levels for the last 12 days or about 2 weeks, I would say that the market structure are balanced, looking for stronger BUYERS or SELLERS around the VALUE AREAS. For now no direction in the markets, just range trades, we should break anytime soon out of this BOX, and I was hoping that today with FOMC minutes we could go search some new levels, out of balance, but... Mr Market had other plans, so for now lets trade the levels and see how it goes by Friday NFP. #tradesafe #sizekills
CME_MINI:ES1!
by IronMan_Trader
TRADE PLAN 01/04/2023TP1> If we manage to Trade/Bid above MAIN POC 3841, we can go for 3858 > 3880 > 3913 > 3924 > 3943 > 3965 > 3979 > 3995. >To the upside, the level I'm looking it right now is the 3860, that's the POC of those last 11 days, we need to trade/bid above so we can try to break the LIS 3913/3915, where BULLS are losing the battle. TP2> If we manage to Trade below MAIN POC 3841, we can visit 3824 > 3800 > 3787 > 3766 > 3728. >To the downside, the level I'm looking is 3824, as we are already trading below 3960 11 days POC, so once we confirm below 3824, we have to break lower to find strong sellers to push below 3800, where BEARS are losing the battle. * We are trading in this 100 points RANGE from 3800 to 3900 levels for the last 11 days or about 2 weeks, I would say that the market structure are balanced, looking for stronger BUYERS or SELLERS around the VALUE AREAS. For now no direction in the markets, just range trades, we should break anytime soon out of this BOX and I would like to see the TP1 working tomorrow as I'm positive delta after this nasty $AAPL Drop. $TSLA was also ugly today, -12.24% #tradesafe #sizekills
CME_MINI:ES1!
by IronMan_Trader
Is Option Buying a Loser Game ? The picture above is a LOTTO PLAY I took this morning, end up buying 4250 ES CALL 6DTE for an avg of $11 at 8:07am (we were trading around 4054 level) , after the report in 2 minutes ES spiked to 4180 and my options price went to $30 Great I was up +160%, but with IV CRUSH + MKT HEADING LOWER 50 points before the bell, my OPTIONS that I got before 8:10am were losing money already.... but how If my entry was at 4054 and we were trading almost +100 points higher ? - Because when you buy an option you have all the factors against you, the probability of success are too small, as you have TIME (Theta) against you + the IV (Implied Volatility) you have not only to be right, but rely on the trend to follow, every minute you are wrong you are losing... Even if the market is sideways and not moving, your options have expiration and every second count, so you better be a DIRECTIONAL HERO and NAIL the trade. So today I was up 160% and end up losing this trade !! Part of the Game, as I call this a LOTTO PLAY ! It was BAD LUCK today, YES and NO, lack of liquidity was another factor (when you trade ES OPTIONS), at this chart you can see there was no orders getting filled at 30, mine didn't get filled, only a lucky trader got out at 25.25 !! After that it was a DUMP and NASTY day! To answer the question, I would say it depends on how you TRADE, but Please don't get me wrong, I do day trade 99% of the time on the BUY SIDE (Buying CALL or SELLING PUT), but 99% of my long time frame trades are on the SELL SIDE of OPTIONS (Selling CALL or Selling PUT) to have probability in my favor. I hope this can help you to understand why most of the times you end up losing money on the BUY SIDE of OPTIONS, the GREEKS are against you !
CME_MINI:ES1!
by IronMan_Trader
Trade Plan 12/14/2022 TP1> if we manage to Trade/Bid above MAIN POC 4054, we can test > 4081 > 4141 > 4186 > 4207 > 4221 TP2> if we Open/Trade below MAIN POC 4054 > we can test > 4035 > 3995 > 3980 > 3960 > 3934 > 3914 (LIS - Bulls Trapped) *All those levels will be INVALID as tomorrow 2:00 PM we will have FOMC Interest Rates REPORT ! GET READY for LOTTO TRADES. $ES can move again +100/150 handles.... Yep, believe me or not we are going to survive tomorrow also !! Daily PIN BAR candle fading all the CPI pre-mkt move. STRONG HIGH = SUPER BEARISH / REVERSAL Reason I'm Flat and waiting to short, we have FOMC Tomorrow 12/14/2022 by 2:00pm.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by IronMan_Trader
Theta Machine - 12/07/2022THETA MACHINE UPDATE No New Trades Today I want VIX and IV to go higher so we can collect extra premium...if not tomorrow, by Friday I will increase the cost basis to +500, and Theta will be around $150/day. Overall POP = 84% POP = Probability of Profit *Next Week volatility can spike as we will have CPI (Dec 12) and FED (Dec 13). With that said, I will probably hedge with Micro Futures. *Quick TIP if you want to hedge your portfolio> +50 Delta = 1 /MES (Micro) +500 Delta = 1 /ES (Mini) My Delta Beta Weight now is around 100, so In order to hedge I need to Sell 2 Micro Futures (2x /MES)
CME_MINI:ES1!
by IronMan_Trader
1