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BTC, very bullish outlookAs promised here is my interpretation of the Bitcoin chart using Elliot wave analysis. The flag breakout is very close to the final confirmation with a break above 69400. We completed a first 1 - 2 setup at the 6th of September. The most likely case is, that we are in the third wave now, leading towards 80k, with a final target for this cycle around 88k. If BTC will confirm this scenario tomorrow with a break above the mentioned 69400 level, there is no reason the test the flag again soon. First target is 73k to the the ATH.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by Kyrean
How Low Will It Go Part DeuxPrior ABC Ideas closed for blowing through projected pivot; we're dealing with a monster here, not a garden variety correction. Topping formation in Wyckoff distribution. Will sell like Hell, then bounce back into a lower high zone, then sell again... and again. Looks impulsive. We clearly in Three not a C, which should've turned today. Three typically = 1.62 x One, so likely headed to 4365 for pivot to Four. NB: Three can extend up to 2.618 of One, although uncommon... watch and see. Four will be ~ half as tall as Two by alternating EW rule, won't bounce very high and can't pass One. Five can be ferocious, may extend up to 1.62 x One but is typically same length, although commonly it measures .618% extension area of the first & third waves combined measured against the high in the fourth wave. So to get Five need to see Four. This chart a wag and guess. It's goin pretty far south IMO. WOULD NOT JUMP IN BOTTOM FISHING YET!
TVC:SPXShort
by DaddySawbucks
39
|wave5 of 3rd of a Third of a 3rd|elliotwave|WAVE3*UPDATED*LONG|As the title suggests, here is the updated chart of my third of a third of a third elliot wave hypothesis. Expect a near vertical rally from todays low, as we are within a sub-wave3 of the first wave 5 having completed the larger degree wave 4 of the even larger wave 3. Next will be consecutive wave 4 wave 5 wave 4 wave 5 of higher degrees to complete the entire pattern sometime this Spring. Feel free to ask any questions.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by thatsblatzphemy
US 30 in ABC Correction? Road to ATH; in Handle of CupVolume lessens on rising prices, increases on downdrafts. RSI divergent. Small caps have reached .50 Fibo retrace off September's lower high. SP500 and Dow have a gap to fill down to the 0.50 Fibo. Three-day rally feels like a B wave, chaotic and widely fluctuant. If so, expect C wave down to the gapfill at the breakout point from Cup near 26300/SandP 2942. A hedged short here is probably a fair R/R as EOM 'window-dressing' is likely to finish what seems to be a modest correction. The ABC is consistent with Intermediate Wave 2 of a Primary wave 3; markets should enter third-in-third wave on completion of the modest correction. A severe tankoff would invalidate this hypothesis! IMO another major October downdraft is unlikely as these rarely happen two years in a row; but anything is possible in this mad market. Taking a small short position on indexes with the gap up in AM on 9/27; this gap will very likely fill in day; first week of October is likely to be choppy. Completing a corrective wave might coincide with positive trade news in Mid-October; if the outcome is disappointing expect a deeper selloff. Still very chancy. Indicators to watch: RUT strong support at 1500 (IWM 150, now trading near 153); small caps have been a leading signal canary. I'd close shorts with IWM at 150; DIA at 264; SPY at 294, if and when they get to these prices. An ABC complete wave could well provide launch point for next bullrun. Longer-term still Bullish going into New Year, I'm not convinced this appearance of H&S in the monthly chart is really going to rollover. We shall see! This isn't investment advice; just an idea, trade at your own risk; GLTA!
DJ:DJIShort
by DaddySawbucks
1
US Equities Alternative Bullish Hypothesis: In Primary EW 3?!Risk is terrific for both longs and shorts at this juncture; I am sidelined, patiently and prudently waiting. In a previous idea I hypothesized a double bottom possibly in October. It is possible the markets are grinding out a near-term bottom at this consolidation zone now. Markets hold tenaciously to this consolidation zone beneath ATH. The September pullback may be nothing more than an Intermediate wave 2 in a Primary Wave 3. We are near a Fibo retracement level off the Cup which seems to be supported, although support is illusionary and can break sharply and suddenly, making longs as risky as shorts. Shorting is terrifically risky now, as delegates are in trade talks in China atm, as a single optimistic tweet could unleash coiled up Bullish energy at this level, possibly driving prices to new ATH in Nov/Dec and another mad January rally into a Primary Wave 5. Donald manipulates the financial markets, and he clearly needs it to be propped up to support his re-election campaign. Betting against the Donald has historically proven to be a poor risk. Direction is highly uncertain at this point; it could break either way, but we saw in August after intense distribution the prices broke to upside. It is certainly possible the Bears have been ground out and equities are poised to move higher. October actually tends to be one of the more Bullish months on average, although most notable crashes and many corrections also have occurred at this time of year, giving it an undeserved bad rep; it is by no means a certain bet to expect another, after last year's savagery. We do have a Cup and Handle clearly formed, and if this be truly the Handle, then the next move is continuation to upside, as depicted in this graph: www.investopedia.com I offer this idea as a precautionary tale to plungers; please FGS do not bet the farm on a further correction! I closed shorts today, as a massive rally could continue. Any disappointment in global events will spark a selloff but optimism over trade could as easily drive prices to a new ATH. R/R is terrible now! As always, this hypothesis is just another WAG, definitely NOT investment advice; trade at your own risk; GLTA!
DJ:DJI
by DaddySawbucks
I Spy A Fed Guy; Two Roads Diverge...Take Less Traveled?!Terrific rally to the 0.786 Fibo; looks like a slamdown at 290 today. We all expected a rally, but this one blew us away. Now we are back in the middle; higher prices but year. Pullback seems imminent; look carefully, however, you may find at least three similar Doji's that fooled us. Cautiously shorting in anticipation of trade and Fed combo worries leading up to FOMC meet next week. No guarantees in this game. Two roads diverge at the meeting: a rate cut will trigger massive upside explosion and race to new ATH in July. EW theory suggests we may be in a 2nd of 5th wave, if so, a 3rd-of-5th would be terrifically bullish, a final blowoff meltup to cap the final surge of the Great Bull. These Elliot Waves are always and only clear in the Retrospectometer. FOMC Disappointment... well, you know. Trade at your own risk; GLTA!
AMEX:SPYShort
by DaddySawbucks
16
OVERSTOCK COM INC DEL Stock analysisCompany: OVERSTOCK COM INC DEL Quote:$OSTK BT: $20 Second allocation will be between $10-$14 pending how the stock trades this month expecting to be a very bearish April for OSTK ST: $40-$60 (A range nothing ever goes exactly to plan however we believe ultimately we can reach this high this year.) Description: Overstock.com, Inc. operates as an online retailer in the United States. It operates in two segments, Direct and Partner. The company sells its products and services through its Internet Websites located at overstock.com, o.co, o.biz, and Pet Adoptions and Worldstock.com, as well as through third-party logistics providers to international customers. The company was formerly known as D2-Discounts Direct and changed its name to Overstock.com, Inc. in October 1999. Overstock.com, Inc. was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Midvale, Utah. Medici Ventures manages Overstock.com’s investments in firms building solutions leveraging and servicing blockchain technologies. Launched in 2014, Medici Ventures is a wholly owned subsidiary of Overstock.com, Inc., created to manage and oversee the company’s investments in firms building solutions leveraging and servicing blockchain technologies. Medici Ventures has a growing portfolio of groundbreaking new companies and tech businesses. Short Interest: Short Percent of Float 68.36 % Short % Increase / Decrease -4 % Tapes last week: 1/5 More bearish and only going to get worse during this month
OLong
by SFYBUofficial
1
SPY H&S in ABC Correction EW 4: To Retest 24 Dec LowChart says all. updated prior post with corrected line positions given interval price changes. C wave length and duration mimics A wave. The H&S pattern appears to be an extension of the correction but note it is also a pennant, or continuation pattern. The trend: still down, entering a fifth intermediate of primary third wave. expect double bottom to retest 233 low. From there it should give a V-notched spike formation and a more powerful rally- perhaps near-vertical back up to or over 260-264. Get ready for fireworks! More to come. GLTA, HNY! As always, for education and amusement not investment advice, trade at your own risk!
AMEX:SPYShort
by DaddySawbucks
26
US 30 in ABC correction: A Bull Trap; expect Lower soon!Wow what an amazing jump! Does it mean the bears are back in hibernation? Doubtful. Boxing Day's record 1k rally was just an impressive a-leg of an a-b-c minor correction after a punishing 3rd Intermediate wave in the current bear wave. Trend is still Bear! Note in chart the abc pattern extension to 0.50 Fibo coincides with the 0.618 Fib retracement of the intermediate wave, thus a strong double wave effect will likely terminate the countertrend positive corrective wave (4) near 23,300. (Marked by Pincher arrows) Wave 4 may not rise above wave 1, which terminated at 23824, this yields a cap on 4th wave rally. Wave 5 will be stunning and terrifying. Bulls that thought it was all over will panic and despair. Traders who short puts will be wiped out. An estimate of termination for Primary Wave 5 from Fib extensions yields Dow 19072 at the 1.618 extension. An extension lower is certainly possible. The Fib spiral for intermediate Wave (3) reveals expected floor for (5) at 20542, for a 1.272 extension, and also curtails the subsequent, expected 4th Primary Wave rally to near 22700, at Fib time projection near 19-21 Feb 2019. Do not be long in this market! Do not start selling puts for income! I wouldn't sell either puts OR calls short in this market, odds are you will get scared into big losses on both sides. Be patient; be careful! Stay away and save trading capital if in doubt. Risk:Reward very poor right now, risk very high, reward likely low. As always, this post for education and amusement only and does not constitute investment advice; trade at your own risk! GLTA!
DJ:DJIShort
by DaddySawbucks
6
Possibly charting breakout of channel and recovery of correctionExtreme bullishness prevails. Vix- dropping off to almost nothing. What looks like a tiny Elliott wave 2 formed Friday AM but quickly dissolved into bullish enthusiasm. If this is the breakout move gathering strength, then the chart shows a possible course. I believe we may have entered minor wave 3 of the V(v) 5th wave already ('third-in-fifth wave'). I lost some bank shorting into the countertrend wave today then was horrified to see the Bulls stampede up to 25740 before settling back. I do NOT recommend shorting anytime soon! Any pullbacks now will be brief and slight, no way to gain anything and all risk. Go long! Purchased Dow index calls on the slight pullback in late afternoon. Futures bulled higher after the close and I expect higher still Monday. I would not be surprised to see another 300-point gainer. Expect the SPX to break 3000 on this runup, by November or sooner. As always, this is not investment advice and all comments are only intended for education and amusement. Good luck!
DJ:DJILong
by DaddySawbucks
16